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A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

In-Situ Heat Rejection to the Martian Atmosphere

In order to provide in-situ heat rejection to the thin Martian atmosphere, approaches relying on forced convection and buoyancy flow are conceptualized. A convective radiator concept utilizing a fan to draw local atmosphere through an expanded metal foam heat exchanger panel is developed. To provide a pumped fluid loop interface, flow tubes are embedded in the heat exchanger panel and heat is transferred from the tubes to the foam via conduction and subsequently convectively to the environment. To forgo the use of a specialized high throughput fan, a concept utilizing a buoyant chimney tower to draw atmospheric flow through a low pressure drop heat exchanger is also considered. Both concepts may best align with moderate- to high-temperature heat loads that provide a significant delta temperature relative to the ambient atmosphere temperature. While eliminating dust accumulation on radiator surfaces, some type of serviceable filtration or screening may be required to prevent accumulation of dust inside the expanded metal foam heat exchanger for both concepts.

Heat Rejection

First multi-institutional systematic comparison of the neutron ambient dose equivalent produced by proton therapy systems

Objective. Isochronous cyclotrons, synchrocyclotrons, and synchrotrons are used to accelerate protons for proton therapy. An accurate measurement of neutron doses generated by these accelerators and associated delivery systems and its clinical relevance requires systematic protocols and proper neutron dosimetry for a meaningful assessment. We present the first comprehensive comparison of neutron ambient dose equivalent (H*(10)) produced by clinically operational proton therapy systems. Approach. Treatment plans with 10 cm modulation-depth and ranges of 10 cm (R10M10) and 25 cm (R25M10) were created to cover a 10 × 10 × 10 cm 3 water target. The pencil beam scanning proton therapy machines studied were: two gantry-mounted synchrocyclotrons (Hyperscan, Mevion, half-gantry), two isochronous cyclotrons (ProBeam, Varian, full-gantry), one isochronous cyclotron (Proteus, IBA, full-gantry), and two synchrotrons (PROBEAT, Hitachi, full- and half-gantry). Proton beams were delivered to 30 × 30 × 40 cm 3 plastic water phantoms. WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP neutron rem-meters were positioned at three angles (0°, 45°, 90°) relative to the beam direction to measure the neutron H*(10) at distances between 50–300 cm from the isocenter. Main results. H*(10) showed dependence on beam energy, machine type, and measurement location. The highest reading was for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron, whereas other systems produced approximately comparable neutron doses. In all cases, the H*(10) reduced with distance from the isocenter. The H*(10) drop at 2 m distance compared to that at 0.5 m was a factor of ∼5 for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron whereas in other systems the decrease was a factor of 10. The WENDI-II device suffered from dead-time-associated under-estimation of the dose by a factor of ∼2–3 under the synchrocyclotron beam due to its high dose-per-pulse. However, WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP results were within reasonable agreement in isochronous cyclotron and synchrotron beams, indicating that both devices are suitable for those systems. Significance. Neutron H*(10) is dependent on various parameters including beam energy, measurement location, as well as machine design. Caution must be exercised in choosing the appropriate neutron-dose-measurement device to be used for low-duty-factor, particularly in high-instantaneous-rate proton delivery systems. By delivering the same volumetric proton dose across different machines, this work provides a benchmark for inter-system comparisons and serves as a foundation for future studies.

LUPIN

Gravitational Effects in Smoldering and SHS

Smolder waves and SHS (self-propagating high-temperature synthesis) waves are both examples of filtration combustion waves propagating in porous media. Smoldering combustion is important for the study of fire safety. Smoldering itself can cause damage, its products are toxic and it can also lead to the more dangerous gas phase combustion which corresponds to faster propagation at higher temperatures. In SHS, a porous solid sample, consisting of a finely ground powder mixture of reactants, is ignited at one end. A high temperature thermal wave, having a frontal structure, then propagates through the sample converting reactants to products. The SHS technology appears to enjoy a number of advantages over the conventional technology, in which the sample is placed in a furnace and 'baked' until it is 'well done'. The advantages include shorter synthesis times, greater economy, in that the internal energy of the reactions is employed rather than the costly external energy of the furnace, purer products, simpler equipment and no intrinsic limitation on the size of the sample to be synthesized, as exists in the conventional technology.

Bernard J Matkowsky

Nickel-hydrogen battery state of charge during low rate trickle charging

Battery temperature increase, due to low rate trickle charging, has been determined experimentally, using a six cell battery module in a test setup simulating the anticipated AXAF-1 prelaunch environment. Test results indicate trickle charge rates less than or equal to the self discharge rate do not increase dissipation beyond that due to the self discharge. Significant trickle charge rates (approximately C/500) result in battery temperatures only a few degrees (F) higher than those observed during periods of open circuit stand.

Lurie, C.

Tracing the Source of Carbon Oxides on the Large Moons of Uranus

The Uranian moons Ariel, Umbriel, Titania, and Oberon are enriched in CO 2 mixed with CO, but the origin(s) of these carbon oxides, be they primarily native or radiolytic, remain(s) uncertain. Using data collected by NIRSpec on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we measured the spectral signature of CO 2 and other carbon oxides to help disentangle these hypotheses. Through comparison to laboratory data, we find that many of the detected spectral features are consistent with CO 2 ice, including 12 CO2 scattering peaks (4.15–4.26 μm), multilobe 13 CO 2 bands (4.35–4.43 μm), and CO 2 biphonon and triphonon modes (4.80–5.25 μm). Our measurements show that CO 2 and CO are concentrated on the trailing hemispheres of the inner moons Ariel and Umbriel, potentially supporting a radiolytic production hypothesis, consistent with prior ground-based results. However, many of the identified spectral features are only observed in thick crystalline ice deposits measured in the laboratory, which may be difficult to form via radiolysis of carbon-bearing material mixed in icy regoliths. Similarly, the data exhibit weak 4.02 and 4.40 μm bands, hinting at the presence of carbonate minerals and 13 CO 2 clathrates, respectively, possibly formed in the interiors of these moons. Furthermore, JWST has revealed that CO 2 is widespread at Uranus, present in its system of rings, ring moons, and irregular satellites, consistent with its largest moons accreting CO 2 and other carbon oxides from the Uranian subnebula. We conclude that exposed carbon oxides are potentially native, with their surface distributions shaped by charged particle irradiation and seasonal sublimation–condensation cycles.

Ice spectroscopy

Reduction of baseplate distortion during directed energy deposition using compliant features

Distortion in additive manufacturing (AM) remains a barrier to its adoption in precision industries. Baseplate warpage is one such issue which compromises the feasibility of post-process precision machining. The restriction to thermal contraction of the deposited part, imposed by the baseplate, generates bending moments, that in turn causes warpage. A novel distortion mitigation strategy using baseplates with integrated compliant features, which enables thermal contraction of the build is presented. Six unique design concepts are evaluated, including a solid reference, using two deposition geometries. A laser, hot-wire, directed energy deposition (DED) process is used to deposit a symmetric cylindrical part (C-part) and a T-shaped asymmetric part (T-part). Flatness deviation of baseplates is measured using structured light 3D scanning. Measurements reveal a reduction in net flatness deviation of 58.8% for the C-part and 40.9% for the T-part, compared to the solid reference. While most designs yielded reductions exceeding 30% and 20% for the C- and T-parts, respectively, one configuration resulted in increased deviation. Finite element (FE) simulations are performed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms affecting distortion of compliant baseplates during DED. Despite variations between predictions and measurements, agreement in the general trend is observed. It also revealed that initial flatness errors in baseplates significantly affect its deviation during deposition. Predictions indicate that compliant features significantly affect the thermal distribution as well as the evolution of flatness deviation in the baseplate during deposition. Notably, one design exhibited a reduction in distortion during cooling, following its initial increase during deposition. FE predictions show a maximum reduction of 60.9% and 38.8% in net flatness deviation for the C- and T-parts, respectively. The performance of compliant baseplates is found to be governed by both its the thermal and mechanical characteristics, which are crucial factors to be considered during design.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)

Bi‐Continuous W‐Rich Refractory High Entropy Alloy‐Cu Composite: Toward Material Innovation of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

Abstract Refractory high‐entropy alloys (RHEAs) are considered promising candidate materials for next‐generation nuclear reactors due to their superior mechanical strength, irradiation resistance, and thermal stability at high temperatures. However, the significant positive heat of mixing between refractory alloying elements and Cu, commonly used in cooling systems, poses challenges in forming composite structures. This study addresses the issue using a liquid metal dealloying (LMD) process. A precursor alloy (WTaVTi) with a directional dendrite‐interdendrite structure is fabricated and reacted with molten Cu at 1200 °C for 96 h. This approach produced a RHEA‐Cu composite with a stable interface between RHEA (W 31.5 Ta 30.9 V 21.4 Ti 14.3 ) and Cu, featuring a spontaneously formed W‐rich interlayer that enhances interfacial bonding. The composite showed excellent irradiation resistance, with 30% less swelling under α‐ion irradiation than pure W. It also exhibited low thermal conductivity at room temperature, but reached ≈120 W m −1 ·K −1 at ≈650 °C, surpassing pure W. This temperature‐dependent rise in κ, with a positive gradient of +0.075 W m −1 ·K − 2 , is attributed to decreasing diffuse mismatch at elevated temperatures. The large‐scale reaction and stable microstructure achieved through LMD process highlight its industrial potential. This work offers a strategy for developing high‐performance materials by combining RHEA's radiation resistance with Cu's thermal conductivity for extreme environments.

Chemistry

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]

Up-and-Coming IMCs

While the good oxidation and environmental resistance, high melting points, and comparatively low densities of such ordered intermetallics as Ti 3 Al, NiAl, FeAl, and NbAl 3 render them good candidates for advanced aerospace structures, their poor toughness at low temperatures and low strength at elevated temperatures have prompted the development of fiber-reinforced intermetallic-matrix composites (IMCs) with more balanced characteristics. Fabrication methods for continuous-fiber IMCs under development include the P/M 'powder cloth' method, the foil/fiber method, and thermal spraying. The ultimate success of IMCs depends on fibers truly compatible with the matrix materials.

Randy Bowman

Passive Confirmation of the Presence Of High-Explosive Material Via Neutron Transmission Spectroscopy

The goal of this project was to explore a novel approach for identifying presence and potential types of high explosives (HE) in treaty-controlled items with passive neutron sources by using passive neutron transmission spectroscopy. We predominantly look to measure relative elemental abundance of Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, and Nitrogen (CHON) since most relevant materials are certain mix of these elements, as shown in Table 1. Previously, most studies exploring potential identification of CHON elemental content of targets in the vicinity of passive neutron source were focused solely on gamma spectroscopy using high resolution gamma detectors. Using neutron transmission spectroscopy with pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) capable organic scintillators is not only a novel idea in of itself, but arguably necessary for accurate identification of the CHON elemental content of an interrogated target. While high resolution gamma spectroscopy in principle can determine a presence of hydrogen and nitrogen, it is effectively blind to a quantitatively measuring areal densities of C, O. The initially proposed approach, described in detail in the project proposal, was to leverage previous Monte Carlo study on neutron transmission spectroscopy using slab shaped target interrogated with well-collimated (“pencil”) neutron beam. In this study, a simulated test CO 2 target was interrogated by a pencil neutron beam and transmitted neutron spectra were measured using PSD capable organic scintillator using MLEM based unfolding technique. To establish relative elemental content of carbon and oxygen, the unfolded neutron spectrum was fit with a parametrized combination of their respective elemental spectral templates. The individual spectral template was calculated by convoluting ENDF neutron crosssection with the known resolution of the PSD detector used in the study. This approach in the studied configuration successfully quantitatively established relative elemental composition of carbon and oxygen.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Nickel-iron battery system safety

The generated flow rates of gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen from an electrical vehicle nickel-iron battery system were determined and used to evaluate the flame quenching capabilities of several candidate devices to prevent flame propagation within batteries having central watering/venting systems. The battery generated hydrogen and oxygen gases were measured for a complete charge and discharge cycle. The data correlates well with accepted theory during strong overcharge conditions indicating that the measurements are valid for other portions of the cycle. Tests confirm that the gas mixture in the cells is always flammable regardless of the battery status. The literature indicated that a conventional flame arrestor would not be effective over the broad spectrum of gassing conditions presented by a nickel-iron battery. Four different types of protective devices were evaluated. A foam-metal arrestor design was successful in quenching gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen flames, however; the application of this flame arrestor to individual cell or module protection in a battery is problematic. A possible rearrangement of the watering/venting system to accept the partial protection of simple one-way valves is presented which, in combination with the successful foam-metal arrestor as main vent protection, could result in a significant improvement in battery protection.

Saltat, R. C.

High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications

The report "High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor for Rotorcraft Applications" documents the work conducted at UTRC under the NRA Contract NNC08CB03C, with cost share 2/3 NASA, and 1/3 UTRC, that has been extended to 4.5 years. The purpose of this effort was to identify key technical barriers to advancing the state-of-the-art of small centrifugal compressor stages; to delineate the measurements required to provide insight into the flow physics of the technical barriers; to design, fabricate, install, and test a state-of-the-art research compressor that is representative of the rear stage of an axial-centrifugal aero-engine; and to acquire detailed aerodynamic performance and research quality data to clarify flow physics and to establish detailed data sets for future application. The design activity centered on meeting the goal set outlined in the NASA solicitation-the design target was to increase efficiency at higher work factor, while also reducing the maximum diameter of the stage. To fit within the existing Small Engine Components Test Facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and to facilitate component re-use, certain key design parameters were fixed by UTRC, including impeller tip diameter, impeller rotational speed, and impeller inlet hub and shroud radii. This report describes the design effort of the High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage (HECC) and delineation of measurements, fabrication of the compressor, and the initial tests that were performed. A new High-Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor stage with a very challenging reduction in radius ratio was successfully designed, fabricated and installed at GRC. The testing was successful, with no mechanical problems and the running clearances were achieved without impeller rubs. Overall, measured pressure ratio of 4.68, work factor of 0.81, and at design exit corrected flow rate of 3 lbm/s met the target requirements. Polytropic efficiency of 85.5 percent and stall margin of 7.5 percent were measured at design flow rate and speed. The measured efficiency and stall margin were lower than pre-test CFD predictions by 2.4 percentage points (pt) and 4.5 pt, respectively. Initial impressions from the experimental data indicated that the loss in the efficiency and stall margin can be attributed to a design shortfall in the impeller. However, detailed investigation of experimental data and post-test CFD simulations of higher fidelity than pre-test CFD, and in particular the unsteady CFD simulations and the assessment with a wider range of turbulence models, have indicated that the loss in efficiency is most likely due to the impact of unfavorable unsteady impeller/diffuser interactions induced by diffuser vanes, an impeller/diffuser corrected flow-rate mismatch (and associated incidence levels), and, potentially, flow separation in the radial-to-axial bend. An experimental program with a vaneless diffuser is recommended to evaluate this observation. A subsequent redesign of the diffuser (and the radial-to-axial bend) is also recommended. The diffuser needs to be redesigned to eliminate the mismatching of the impeller and the diffuser, targeting a slightly higher flow capacity. Furthermore, diffuser vanes need to be adjusted to align the incidence angles, to optimize the splitter vane location (both radially and circumferentially), and to minimize the unsteady interactions with the impeller. The radial-to-axial bend needs to be redesigned to eliminate, or at least minimize, the flow separation at the inner wall, and its impact on the flow in the diffuser upstream. Lessons were also learned in terms of CFD methodology and the importance of unsteady CFD simulations for centrifugal compressors was highlighted. Inconsistencies in the implementation of a widely used two-equation turbulence model were identified and corrections are recommended. It was also observed that unsteady simulations for centrifugal compressors require significantly longer integration times than what is current practice in industry.

Gorazd Medic

Cryogenic Mixed Mode I – Mode II Fracture Toughness of Various Polymer Composite Materials

The present study investigates the mixed mode interlaminar fracture toughness of six polymer matrix composite materials at both room temperature and cryogenic liquid nitrogen temperature. The single leg bending test employed gives a mix of Mode I (opening) and Mode II (in-plane shearing) cracking. The tested thermoplastic-matrix composites were shown to have total mixed mode toughnesses 3.1–4.3 times higher than those of representative thermoset resin composites.

Carbon fiber

Metrology for femtosecond pulsed x-ray heating in diamond anvil cell experiments at the European XFEL: Revisiting the iron phase diagram up to 150 GPa

The development of pulsed intense x-ray sources, such as free electron laser, offers new avenues for high pressure experiments. Here, we study the feasibility and metrology of x-ray heating in diamond anvil cells at the European x-ray free electron laser. This method enables one to volumetrically heat the sample while inhibiting chemical migration and probing the crystallographic structure of the sample throughout the heating with a high repetition rate. We focus our study on iron, whose phase diagram is well established up to 100 GPa, to explore the possibilities and limitations of this technique. We volumetrically heat iron samples at starting pressures ranging from 10 to 138 GPa, using the x-ray beam pulsed at 4.5 MHz in a serial pump-and-probe experimental design. Experimental challenges arise from temperature gradients within the sample, changes in temperature at the 100 ns timescale, the difficulty of direct temperature estimates, the effect of thermal pressure, and the presence of metastable crystallites due to rapid cycles of heating and cooling. Hence, we develop a multi-crystal-like data processing method that allows us to account for sample heterogeneity in probed conditions. We then calibrate our measurements using known physical properties of iron under pressure. Thermal pressure in our experiments increases from 4% of the isochoric prediction at 10 GPa to 23% at 138 GPa, and we show that our data are in agreement with most previous observations of iron in this pressure range. The method can now be implemented at higher pressures and temperatures and on materials with unknown phase diagrams.

Materials science

Predicting microstructurally sensitive fatigue‐crack path in WE43 magnesium using high‐fidelity numerical modeling and three‐dimensional experimental characterization

Abstract Microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials is highly three‐dimensional due to sensitivity to local microstructural features (e.g., grains). One requirement for modeling microstructurally sensitive crack propagation is establishing the criteria that govern crack evolution, including crack deflection. Here, a high‐fidelity finite‐element modeling framework is used to assess the performance and validity of various crack‐growth criteria, including slip‐based metrics (e.g., fatigue‐indicator parameters), as potential criteria for predicting three‐dimensional crack paths in polycrystalline materials. The modeling framework represents cracks as geometrically explicit discontinuities and involves voxel‐based remeshing, mesh‐gradation control, and a crystal‐plasticity constitutive model. The predictions are compared to experimental measurements of WE43 magnesium samples subject to fatigue loading, for which three‐dimensional grain structures and fatigue‐crack surfaces were measured post‐mortem using near‐field high‐energy x‐ray diffraction microscopy and x‐ray computed tomography. Findings from this work are expected to improve the predictive capabilities of simulations involving microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials.

Engineering

Data Analysis for GOPEX Image Frames

This article describes the data analysis based on the image frames received at the Solid State Imaging (SSI) camera of the Galileo Optical Experiment (GOPEX) demonstration conducted between December 9 and 16, 1992. Laser uplink was successfully established between the ground and the Galileo spacecraft during its second Earth-gravity-assist phase in December 1992. SSI camera frames were acquired which contained images of detected laser pulses transmitted from the Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and the Starfire Optical Range (SOR), Albuquerque, New Mex/co. Laser pulse data were processed using standard image-processing techniques at the Multimission Image Processing Laboratory (MIPL) for preliminary pulse identification and to produce public re/ease images. Subsequent image analysis corrected for background noise to measure received pulse intensities. Data were plotted to obtain histograms on a dmly basis and were then compared with theoretical results derived from applicable weak-turbulence and strong-turbulence considerations. This article describes processing steps and compares the theories with the experimented results. Quantitative agreement was found in both turbulence regimes, and better agreement would have been found, given more received laser pulses. Future experiments should consider methods to reliably measure low-intensity pulses, and through experimented planning to geometrically locate pulse positions with greater certainty.

B M Levine

List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age

This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.

Physical Metallurgy