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At least 451 records · Page 25

Oil-Pressure Based Apparatus for In-Situ High-Energy Synchrotron X-Ray Diffraction Studies During Biaxial Deformation

Background: Understanding biaxial loading response at the microstructural level is crucial in helping better design sheet manufacturing processes and calibrate/validate material deformation models. Objective: The objective of this work was to develop a low-cost testing apparatus to probe, with sufficient spatial resolution, the micro-mechanical response of a sheet material in-situ under biaxial loading conditions. Methods: The testing apparatus fabricated as a part of this study operates in a similar fashion to a standard bulge test and uses oil pressure to generate biaxial loading conditions. This biaxial testing apparatus was operated within a synchrotron beamline to characterize the mechanical response of a flash-processed steel sheet using in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements. Further, the GSAS-II package was utilized to develop a workflow for the analysis of the large volume of diffraction data acquired. The workflow was then used to extract the peak position, width, and integrated intensity of the XRD peaks corresponding to the major body-centered cubic phase. Results: The equi-biaxial nature of the loading in the measured area was independently corroborated using experimental (XRD) and simulation (finite element analysis) methods. Furthermore, we discuss the evolution of elastic strain in the major body-centered cubic phase as a function of applied oil pressure and location on the steel sheet. Conclusions: A key advantage of the biaxial apparatus fabricated in this synchrotron study is demonstrated using the results obtained for the flash-processed steel sheet – i.e., mapping the lattice plane-dependent response to biaxial loading for a relatively large sample area in a spatially resolved manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterization of Mk-IV and EBR-II X441A Metallic Fuel Pins for the THOR-C-2 and THOR-M-TOP-1 Experiments: Results from Post-Transient Neutron Tomography of THOR-C-2 Capsule and Pre-transient Non-Destructive and Destructive Examination of DP 36 and DP 40 (Rev.1)

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced-reactor fuel technology development. A Fuel Safety Research and Development (FSRD) program for metallic fast reactor fuels has been created to achieve comprehensive safety testing within the re-commissioned Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility at the Idaho National Laboratory. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under anticipated operational occurrences and severe accident scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR)-II and the Fast Flux Test Facility, fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds rely heavily on fuel composition and irradiation history. In advancing the FSRD program, two planned transient heating experiments are at various stages of completion. The Temperature Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR)-C-2, fueled with an unirradiated Mk IV U-10Zr pin, has undergone transient irradiation in TREAT and post-transient three-dimensional neutron tomography. Additionally, pre-transient characterization of test and sibling U-19Pu-10Zr pins for THOR-M-TOP-1 was evaluated by both non-destructive and destructive methods. The test and sibling pins were selected from previously irradiated EBR-II experiment X441A. Both pins underwent visual examination, precise gamma spectrometry, two-dimensional neutron radiography, and element contact profilometry while the sibling pin was additionally subjected to sectioning and optical microscopy. THOR-C-2 radiography captured the fuel and cladding relocation during the intermediate transient at the top and bottom of the THOR capsule, allowing key features to be linked to the pin’s measured thermal response. For THOR M TOP 1, a solid baseline for steady-state behavior has been established. No anomalous features were identified in either the test or sibling pin. Defining characteristics and features were recorded for further comparisons.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Methodology for deriving the telescope focus function and its uncertainty for a heterodyne pulsed Doppler lidar

Doppler lidars provide two measured parameters, radial velocity and signal-to-noise ratio, from which winds and turbulent properties are routinely derived. Attenuated backscatter, which gives quantitative information on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the atmosphere, can be used in conjunction with the winds and turbulent properties to create a sophisticated classification of the state of the atmospheric boundary layer. Calculating attenuated backscatter from the signal-to-noise ratio requires accurate knowledge of the telescope focus function, which is usually unavailable. Inaccurate assumptions of the telescope focus function can significantly deform attenuated backscatter profiles, even if the instrument is focused at infinity. Here, we present a methodology for deriving the telescope focus function using a co-located ceilometer for pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidars. The method was tested with Halo Photonics StreamLine and StreamLine XR Doppler lidars but should also be applicable to other pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidar systems. The method derives two parameters of the telescope focus function, the effective beam diameter and the effective focal length of the telescope. Additionally, the method provides uncertainty estimates for the retrieved attenuated backscatter profile arising from uncertainties in deriving the telescope function, together with standard measurement uncertainties from the signal-to-noise ratio. The method is best suited for locations where the absolute difference in aerosol extinction at the ceilometer and Doppler lidar wavelengths is small.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On-the-fly response function generation method for composite coarse mesh

The hybrid stochastic deterministic transport code COMET, based on the incident response expansion theory, is used to model reactor cores with high fidelity and formidable computational speed. COMET models a reactor core using a library of incident flux response expansion coefficients that are pre computed for all the unique lattice cells (e.g., fuel assemblies, reflector blocks, etc.) in the core. In order to further improve its computational efficiency in pre-calculating the response library a new response function generation method is developed to compute the response functions for the composite coarse meshes made of a smaller set of unique lattices on the fly within the COMET's deterministic transport core sweep. The efficiency is achieved by eliminating a number of unique lattices that can be made up from the reduced set of unique meshes on the fly. The numerical process consists of the following steps. First, the boundary condition on composite coarse mesh boundaries is projected onto the expansion basis to compute the incident flux moments on external surfaces of all the basic (reduced set of unique) coarse meshes. Secondly, the deterministic sweeping solver in COMET is used to converge on the outgoing/incoming flux expansion moments crossing interfaces between the basic coarse meshes. Thirdly, the response functions for the composite coarse meshes are constructed as a superposition on the fly. The new response function generation method was tested on 88 composite coarse meshes consisting of CANDU fuel bundles and moderator blocks. It was found that response functions generated by the new method agree very well with those generated by direct Monte Carlo calculations. The average and maximum relative differences in the surface-to-surface response coefficients computed by the two methods are 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively. Similarly, the average and maximum relative differences in the response fission densities are 0.13% and 0.43%, respectively. These discrepancies are within one standard deviation of the stochastic uncertainties. The new method is five times faster than the original direct Monte Carlo method. The size of the response function library for the new method is five times smaller than that for the original method, leading to significantly less requirement for the computer hard drive space and memory. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Area Detection of Microstructural Defects with Multi-Mode Ultrasonic Signals

Cyclic loading or other stresses can lead to development of cracks and crack growth in mechanical structures, leading to eventual failure. While ultrasound imaging can be used for non-destructive testing of such structures, conventional ultrasound techniques are often limited by crack size, density, and areal coverage. An effective characterization of real-world, large-area structures is required at an early damage stage to prevent catastrophic failure and predict remaining life. In this study, a new nonlinear ultrasonic testing (NUT) method is proposed for large-area monitoring of practical structures with arbitrary complexity by using multiple-mode guided-wave ultrasonic signals. The proposed guided-wave NUT technique requires single-element transducers, simple electronics, and a mixed time-frequency domain signal processing. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, numerical simulations and experiments are performed on an A36 carbon steel beam assembly with previously formed microstructural defects that cause nonlinearities in ultrasonic response. The quadratic dependence of the nonlinear wave excitation on the input ultrasonic signal amplitude is shown by numerical simulations, and such a nonlinear ultrasonic response is experimentally observed in the zone with a high density of microstructural defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

60 - APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

General framework for quantifying dissipation pathways in open quantum systems. III. Off-diagonal subsystem–bath couplings

This paper extends the previously reported theory of dissipation pathways [C. W. Kim and I. Franco, J. Chem. Phys. 160, 214111 (2024)] to incorporate off-diagonal subsystem–bath coupling, which is often required to model molecular systems where the environment directly influences transitions and couplings between subsystem states. We systematically derive master equations for both population transfer and dissipation into individual bath components, for which we also rigorously prove energy conservation and detailed balance. The approach is based on second-order perturbation theory with respect to the subsystem–bath couplings, whose form is not limited to any specific model. The accuracy of the developed method is tested by applying it to diverse model Hamiltonians involving linearly coupled harmonic oscillator baths and comparing the outcomes against the hierarchical equations of motion (HEOM) method. Overall, our method accurately quantifies the contributions of specific bath components to the overall dissipation while significantly reducing the computational cost compared to numerically exact methods such as HEOM, thus offering a path to examine how vibronic interactions steer non-adiabatic processes in realistic chemical systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bi-fidelity Gradient-Based Approach for Nonlinear Well Logging Inverse Problems

Solving a non-linear inverse problem is challenging in computational science and engineering. Sampling based methods require a large number of model valuations; gradientbased methods require fewer model evaluations but only find the local minima. Multifidelity optimization combines the low fidelity model and the high-fidelity model to achieve both high accuracy and high efficiency. In this paper, we present a bi-fidelity approach to solve non-linear inverse problems. In the bi-fidelity inversion method, the low-fidelity model is used to acquire a good initial guess, and the high-fidelity model is used to locate the global minimum. Combined with a multi-start optimization scheme, the proposed approach significantly increases the possibility of finding the global minimum for nonlinear inverse problems with many local minima. The method is tested with two toy problems and then applied to an electromagnetic well logging inverse problem, which is difficult to solve using traditional gradient-based methods. The bi-fidelity method provides promising inversion results and can be easily applied to traditional gradient-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decom- pose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high- level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Deep quantum circuit simulations of low-energy nuclear states

Numerical simulation is an important method for verifying the quantum circuits used to simulate low-energy nuclear states. However, real-world applications of quantum computing for nuclear theory often generate deep quantum circuits that place demanding memory and processing requirements on conventional simulation methods. Here, we present advances in high-performance numerical simulations of deep quantum circuits to efficiently verify the accuracy of low-energy nuclear physics applications. Our approach employs novel methods for accelerating the numerical simulation including management of simulated mid-circuit measurements to verify projection based state preparation circuits. In this study, we test these methods across a variety of high-performance computing systems and our results show that circuits up to 21 qubits and more than 115,000,000 gates can be efficiently simulated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Probing the consistency of cosmological contours for supernova cosmology

As the scale of cosmological surveys increases, so does the complexity in the analyses. This complexity can often make it difficult to derive the underlying principles, necessitating statistically rigorous testing to ensure the results of an analysis are consistent and reasonable. This is particularly important in multi-probe cosmological analyses like those used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, where accurate uncertainties are vital. In this paper, we present a statistically rigorous method to test the consistency of contours produced in these analyses and apply this method to the Pippin cosmological pipeline used for type Ia supernova cosmology with the DES. We make use of the Neyman construction, a frequentist methodology that leverages extensive simulations to calculate confidence intervals, to perform this consistency check. A true Neyman construction is too computationally expensive for supernova cosmology, so we develop a method for approximating a Neyman construction with far fewer simulations. We find that for a simulated dataset, the 68% contour reported by the Pippin pipeline and the 68% confidence region produced by our approximate Neyman construction differ by less than a percent near the input cosmology; however, they show more significant differences far from the input cosmology, with a maximal difference of 0.05 in $Ω$ M and 0.07 in w. In conclusion, this divergence is most impactful for analyses of cosmological tensions, but its impact is mitigated when combining supernovae with other cross-cutting cosmological probes, such as the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗