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At least 451 records · Page 25
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence

A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.

autonomy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Design Capabilities for Planetary Missions from the NASA Entry Systems Modeling and Instrumentation Portfolio

The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.

Justin Haskins↗
NASA NTRS1993

A simulation of the Cerro Hudson SO2 cloud

An isentropic trajectory model is used to simulate the evolution of the southern hemisphere SO2 cloud associated with the eruption of Cerro Hudson. By matching the parcel trajectories with total ozone mapping spectrometer SO2 retrievals, the principal stratospheric injection region is determined to be between 11 and 16 km in altitude. This region is characterized by weak wind shears and is located just poleward of the subtropical jet in the outer fringe of the stratospheric polar vortex. The lack of wind shear in the injection region explains the slow zonal dispersal of the SO2 cloud which was still clearly observed 19 days after the eruption. The trajectory model simulation of the SO2 cloud shows good agreement with observations for 7 days after the eruption. Using the potential vorticity and potential temperature estimates of the initial eruption cloud, the cloud position relative to the polar night jet is shown to be nearly fixed up to September 2, 1991, which was as long as the cloud was observed. This result suggests that the lower stratospheric polar and midlatitude regions are nearly isolated from each other during the late August period.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Influence of Summertime Convection Over Southeast Asia on Water Vapor in the Tropical Stratosphere

The relative contributions of Southeast Asian convective source regions during boreal summer to water vapor in the tropical stratosphere are examined using Lagrangian trajectories. Convective sources are identified using global observations of infrared brightness temperature at high space and time resolution, and water vapor transport is simulated using advection-condensation. Trajectory simulations are driven by three different reanalysis data sets, GMAO MERRA, ERA-Interim, and NCEP/NCAR, to establish points of consistency and evaluate the sensitivity of the results to differences in the underlying meteorological fields. All ensembles indicate that Southeast Asia is a prominent boreal summer source of tropospheric air to the tropical stratosphere. Three convective source domains are identified within Southeast Asia: the Bay of Bengal and South Asian subcontinent (MON), the South China and Philippine Seas (SCS), and the Tibetan Plateau and South Slope of the Himalayas (TIB). Water vapor transport into the stratosphere from these three domains exhibits systematic differences that are related to differences in the bulk characteristics of transport. We find air emanating from SCS to be driest, from MON slightly moister, and from TIB moistest. Analysis of pathways shows that air detrained from convection over TIB is most likely to bypass the region of minimum absolute saturation mixing ratio over the equatorial western Pacific; however, the impact of this bypass mechanism on mean water vapor in the tropical stratosphere at 68 hPa is small 0.1 ppmv). This result contrasts with previously published hypotheses, and it highlights the challenge of properly quantifying fluxes of atmospheric humidity.

Wright, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of Transonic Wake Dynamics for Mechanically Deployable Entry Systems

A numerical investigation of transonic flow around a mechanically deployable entry system being considered for a robotic mission to Venus has been performed, and preliminary results are reported. The flow around a conceptual representation of the vehicle geometry was simulated at discrete points along a ballistic trajectory using Detached Eddy Simulation (DES). The trajectory points selected span the low supersonic to transonic regimes with freestream Mach numbers from 1:5 to 0:8, and freestream Reynolds numbers (based on diameter) between 2:09 x 10(exp 6) and 2:93 x 10(exp 6). Additionally, the Mach 0:8 case was simulated at angles of attack between 0 and 5 . Static aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the data show qualitative agreement with data from 70deg sphere-cone wind tunnel tests performed for the Viking program. Finally, the effect of choices of models and numerical algorithms is addressed by comparing the DES results to those using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model, as well as to results using a more dissipative numerical scheme.

Stern, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Investigation of Parallel Programming Techniques Applied to Monte Carlo Simulations for Post-Flight Reconstruction of Spacecraft Trajectory

Parallelizing software to execute on multi-core central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) can be challenging. For some fields outside of Computer Science, this transition comes with new issues. For example, memory limitations can require modifications to code not initially developed to run on GPUs. This work applies the Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) and Open Accelerators (OpenACC) directive-based parallelization strategies on a Monte Carlo simulation approach for trajectory reconstruction enabling it to run on multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Large matrix operations are the most common use of GPUs, which are not present in this algorithm; however, the natural parallelism of independent trajectories in Monte Carlo simulations is exploited. Benchmarking data are presented comparing execution times of the software for single-thread CPUs, multi-thread CPUs with OpenMP, and multi-thread GPUs using OpenACC. These data were collected using nodes with Intel® Xeon® E5-2670 (Sandy Bridge) CPUs enhanced with NVIDIA® Tesla® K40 GPUs on the Pleiades Supercomputer cluster at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center (ARC) and a local Intel® Xeon Phi™ node at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC).

Williams, R. Anthony↗
NASA NTRS1993

Nonsmooth trajectory optimization - An approach using continuous simulated annealing

An account is given of the properties of a continuous simulated annealing algorithm that can function as a global optimization tool for nonsmooth dynamic systems, as shown in the case of a trajectory-optimization program implementation. The approach is shown to successfully solve the problem of nonsmooth trajectory optimization for a high performance rigid-body aircraft. The results obtained demonstrate the superiority of the simulated annealing algorithm over widely used algorithms.

Lu, Ping↗
NASA NTRS1976

One-dimensional numerical study of charged particle trajectories in turbulent electrostatic wave fields

The paper describes a numerical simulation of electron trajectories in weak random electric fields under conditions that are approximately true for Langmuir waves whose wavelength is much longer than the Debye length. Two types of trajectory calculations were made: (1) the initial particle velocity was made equal to the mean phase velocity of the waves, or (2) it was equal to 0.7419 times the mean velocity of the waves, so that the initial velocity differed substantially from all phase velocities of the wave spectrum. When the autocorrelation time is much greater than the trapping time, the particle motion can change virtually instantaneously from one of three states - high-velocity, low-velocity, or trapped state - to another. The probability of instantaneous transition from a high- or low-velocity state becomes small when the difference between the particle velocity and the mean phase velocity of the waves becomes high in comparison to the trapping velocity. Diffusive motion becomes negligible under these conditions also.

Graham, K. N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state with symmetric boundary conditions and geometries. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC s Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Ruf, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation to Support Local Search in Trajectory Optimization Planning

NASA and the international community are investing in the development of a commercial transportation infrastructure that includes the increased use of rotorcraft, specifically helicopters and civil tilt rotors. However, there is significant concern over the impact of noise on the communities surrounding the transportation facilities. One way to address the rotorcraft noise problem is by exploiting powerful search techniques coming from artificial intelligence coupled with simulation and field tests to design low-noise flight profiles which can be tested in simulation or through field tests. This paper investigates the use of simulation based on predictive physical models to facilitate the search for low-noise trajectories using a class of automated search algorithms called local search. A novel feature of this approach is the ability to incorporate constraints directly into the problem formulation that addresses passenger safety and comfort.

Morris, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ion radial diffusion in an electrostatic impulse model for stormtime ring current formation

Two refinements to the quasi-linear theory of ion radial diffusion are proposed and examined analytically with simulations of particle trajectories. The resonance-broadening correction by Dungey (1965) is applied to the quasi-linear diffusion theory by Faelthammar (1965) for an individual model storm. Quasi-linear theory is then applied to the mean diffusion coefficients resulting from simulations of particle trajectories in 20 model storms. The correction for drift-resonance broadening results in quasi-linear diffusion coefficients with discrepancies from the corresponding simulated values that are reduced by a factor of about 3. Further reductions in the discrepancies are noted following the averaging of the quasi-linear diffusion coefficients, the simulated coefficients, and the resonance-broadened coefficients for the 20 storms. Quasi-linear theory provides good descriptions of particle transport for a single storm but performs even better in conjunction with the present ensemble-averaging.

Chen, Margaret W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Time Accurate CFD Simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the Transonic Regime

Significant asymmetries in the fluid dynamics were calculated for some cases in the CFD simulations of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle through its abort trajectories. The CFD simulations were performed steady state and in three dimensions with symmetric geometries, no freestream sideslip angle, and motors firing. The trajectory points at issue were in the transonic regime, at 0 and +/- 5 angles of attack with the Abort Motors with and without the Attitude Control Motors (ACM) firing. In some of the cases the asymmetric fluid dynamics resulted in aerodynamic side forces that were large enough that would overcome the control authority of the ACMs. MSFC's Fluid Dynamics Group supported the investigation into the cause of the flow asymmetries with time accurate CFD simulations, utilizing a hybrid RANS-LES turbulence model. The results show that the flow over the vehicle and the subsequent interaction with the AB and ACM motor plumes were unsteady. The resulting instantaneous aerodynamic forces were oscillatory with fairly large magnitudes. Time averaged aerodynamic forces were essentially symmetric.

Rojahn, Josh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Simulation Results of the Huygens Probe Entry and Descent Trajectory Reconstruction Algorithm

Cassini/Huygens is a joint NASA/ESA mission to explore the Saturnian system. The ESA Huygens probe is scheduled to be released from the Cassini spacecraft on December 25, 2004, enter the atmosphere of Titan in January, 2005, and descend to Titan s surface using a sequence of different parachutes. To correctly interpret and correlate results from the probe science experiments and to provide a reference set of data for "ground-truthing" Orbiter remote sensing measurements, it is essential that the probe entry and descent trajectory reconstruction be performed as early as possible in the postflight data analysis phase. The Huygens Descent Trajectory Working Group (DTWG), a subgroup of the Huygens Science Working Team (HSWT), is responsible for developing a methodology and performing the entry and descent trajectory reconstruction. This paper provides an outline of the trajectory reconstruction methodology, preliminary probe trajectory retrieval test results using a simulated synthetic Huygens dataset developed by the Huygens Project Scientist Team at ESA/ESTEC, and a discussion of strategies for recovery from possible instrument failure.

Kazeminejad, B.↗