SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty characterization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Satellite-based Assessment of Trans-Pacific Transport of Pollution Aerosol

It has been well documented that pollution aerosol and dust from East Asia can transport across the North Pacific basin, reaching North America and beyond. Such intercontinental transport extends the impact of aerosols for climate change, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biology from local and regional scales to hemispheric and global scales. Long term, measurement-based studies are necessary to adequately assess the implications of these wider impacts. A satellite-based assessment can augment intensive field campaigns by expanding temporal and spatial scales and also serve as constraints for model simulations. Satellite imagers have been providing a wealth of evidence for the intercontinental transport of aerosols for more than two decades. Quantitative assessments, however, became feasible only recently as a result of the much improved measurement accuracy and enhanced new capabilities of satellite sensors. In this study, we generated a 4-year (2002 to 2005) climatology of optical depth for pollution aerosol (defined as a mixture of aerosols from urbanlindustrial pollution and biomass burning in this study) over the North Pacific from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) observations of fine- and coarse-mode aerosol optical depths. The pollution aerosol mass loading and fluxes were then calculated using measurements of the dependence of aerosol mass extinction efficiency on relative humidity and of aerosol vertical distributions from field campaigns and available satellite observations in the region. We estimated that about 18 Tg/year pollution aerosol is exported from East Asia to the northwestern Pacific Ocean, of which about 25% reaches the west coast of North America. The pollution fluxes are largest in spring and smallest in summer. For the period we have examined the strongest export and import of pollution particulates occurred in 2003, due largely to record intense Eurasia wildfires in spring and summer. The overall uncertainty of pollution fluxes is estimated at about 80%. A reduction of uncertainty can be achieved with a better characterization of pollution aerosol through integrating emerging A-Train measurements. Simulations by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) models agree quite well with the satellite-based estimates of annual and latitudeintegrated fluxes, with larger model-satellite differences in latitudinal variations of fluxes.

Yu, Hongbin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder HCl Measurements

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite has provided daily global HCl profiles since August 2004. We provide a characterization of the resolution, random and systematic uncertainties, and known issues for the version 2.2 MLS HCl data. The MLS sampling allows for comparisons with many (~1500 to more than 3000) closely matched profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). These data sets provide HCl latitudinal distributions that are, overall, very similar to those from (coincident) MLS profiles, although there are some discrepancies in the upper stratosphere between the MLS and HALOE gradients. As found in previous work, MLS and ACE HCl profiles agree very well (within approximately 5%, on average), but the MLS HCl abundances are generally larger (by 10-20%) than HALOE HCl. The bias versus HALOE is unlikely to arise mostly from MLS, as a similar systematic bias (of order 15%) is not observed between average MLS and balloon-borne measurements of HCl, obtained over Fort Sumner, New Mexico, in 2004 and 2005. At the largest pressure (147 hPa) for MLS HCl, a high bias (approximately 0.2 ppbv) is apparent in analyses of low to midlatitude data versus in situ aircraft chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) HCl measurements from the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE) campaigns in 2004, 2005, and 2006; this bias is also observed in comparisons of MLS and aircraftHCl/O3 correlations. Good agreement between MLS and CIMS HCl is obtained at 100 to 68 hPa. The recommended pressure range for MLS HCl is from 100 to 0.15 hPa.

Earth Observing System (EOS)↗

NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

NASA NTRS2012

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

NASA NTRS2013

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

DOE OSTI2023

Proxy-based Bayesian inversion of strain tensor data measured during well tests

Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards resolving protein structures at the atomic scale using atom probe tomography

In the field of Structural Biology, Atom Probe Tomography (APT) is in the nascent stages of development wherein coarse-grained visuals of proteins have been captured. The characterization of organic samples or biomolecules through the technique is currently limited to the detection of a few dominant signatures. The problem of indecipherable characterization can inherently be traced back to multiple forms of technique-specific responses to organic samples and consequent triggers leading to organic-sample and sample-medium interactions. While it is possible for captured manifestations of protein reconstructions to seemingly appear intact from a basic visual purview, the parameter-protein associative responses throughout the structure as a direct consequence of the inherent workings of the technique (until harmonized with organic sample complexity and behavior) and field evaporation-based factors make non-aberrative atomic associations infeasible. The work focused on identifying and theorizing the (above stated and other) fundamental mechanisms that stronghold the study of intricate atomic to higher order associations in proteins through APT. Attempts at structure elucidation of the cryogenic sample under study, through indirect associations (and methods) based on other imaging techniques, further revealed the distinct and highly distortive nature at the atomic scale deterring structural tunability and thus characterization of APT based cryogenic samples under analysis. As a direct counter to the atomic scale characterization problem, by taking the experiment-specific uncertainties, and probable APT-centric organic sample-based variabilities into account, a basic result is extracted and presented. Through mass-spectrometric and computational analysis, specific individual amino acids (Sulfur-containing protein-bound amino acids) in proteins and aspects of protein structure (probable backbone fragments, partial sequence - partial backbone portions) have been identified and characterized. Under analysis considerations, a few of the simplest known and easily inferable segments that favor structural deteriorations in the reconstructions are stated. Additionally, to overcome technique-specific deterrents to the characterization of biomolecules in cryogenic sample medium, the development of a protein-labeling strategy tailored to APT is suggested.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model

Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2024

Transboundary sky waters in the Middle East: definition, challenges, and opportunities

Transboundary water disputes in the Middle East have increased in recent years due to growing constraints on water resources. Efforts to harvest more water from the atmosphere through weather intervention projects have exacerbated existing conflicts. Here, we propose that atmospheric water vapor should be recognized as a transboundary resource that involves substantial uncertainty. As such, this note serves as a starting point for characterizing various components of this concept, the knowledge gaps, and a roadmap to address those gaps. These efforts would reduce uncertainties and help integrate the sky water into transboundary water negotiations and collaborative understanding.

Amin Dezfuli↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Technique of Extracting UCN Decay Lifetime from Storage Chamber Measurements Dominated by Scattering Losses

The neutron’s lifetime is a critical parameter in the standard model. Its measurements, particularly measurements using both beamline and ultracold neutron storage techniques, have revealed significant tension. In this work, we review the status of the tension between various measurements, especially in light of the insights provided by the β-decay correlation measurements. We revisit the lifetime measurement in a material storage chamber, dominated by losses from scattering off the walls of the storage chamber. The neutron energy spectra and associated uncertainties were, for the first time, well-characterized using storage data alone. Such models have applications in the extraction of the mean time between wall bounces, which is a key parameter for neutron storage disappearance experiments in search of neutron oscillation. A comparison between the loss model and the number of neutrons stored in a single chamber allowed us to extract a neutron lifetime of τn*=880(+158/−78)stat.(+230/−114)sys.s (68.3% C.I.). Though the uncertainty of this lifetime is not competitive with currently available measurements, the highlight of this work is that we precisely identified the systematic sources of uncertainty that contribute to the neutron lifetime measurements in material storage bottles, namely from the uncertainty in the energy spectra, as well as from the storage chamber surface parameters of the Fermi potential and loss per bounce. In doing so, we highlight the underestimation of the uncertainties in the previous Monte Carlo simulations of experiments using the technique of ultracold neutron storage in material bottles.

Mohanmurthy, Prajwal (ORCID:0000000275737010)↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of Neutron Uncertainty Types

The assessment of neutron data requires understanding the uncertainty. The uncertainty of the final quantities of interest, neutron multiplication and mass, is a combination of many other uncertainties because it is a combination of many other variables. The equations for the values of neutron multiplication and mass are quite complex. The relations between the many contributing variables and their uncertainties are complicated leading to complications in combining them. Additionally, some are statistical in nature, while others are systematic. In an effort to better understand and quantify the total uncertainty in neutron multiplication and SNM mass, they have been subdivided into four categories: setup, detector response, nuclear data, and object characterization. This paper discusses the four categories and what types of uncertainties are in each of them. This effort attempts to generalize this process for any neutron detector, but many of our examples show the Next Generation Multiplicity Detector (MC-15).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Navigation & Environment Characterization in the Planar-Restricted Two-Body Problem

During mission planning and execution, spacecraft operators must balance data collection and downlink, systems constraints, human factors, and navigation. As missions become increasingly complex and ambitious, these factors become more intricately entwined and conflicted. For example, a spacecraft’s position must be known accurately in order to point to and image a target. Large position errors may cause missed observations or require additional scanning that increases operations complexity and data volume. Some observations require imaging from specific relative geometries which adds orbit control and timing considerations. Adjusting the orbit may allow for optimal observability of environmental parameters and/or enable more efficient sensor coverage, but maneuver execution error adds uncertainty to the current state which impacts both characterization and coverage objectives.

Navigation↗