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DOE OSTI2023

High-Performance Accelerator Modeling: Toward Improving Controls and Diagnostics for High-Brightness Beams in Experiment

One of the main charges of beam physics is to improve the overall beam quality delivered to experiments and applications, which is generally quantified by the beam brightness. High brightness beams have numerous applications, including x-ray free electron lasers and ultrafast electron diffraction (UED). To these ends, this thesis details efforts to use high-performance models --- high-fidelity models that execute quickly --- for controls and diagnostics. To demonstrate the generality of these techniques, this thesis focuses on three of the most successful photoinjector designs currently used worldwide: the UCLA/SLAC/BNL-type high-gradient S-band gun, the continuous-wave high-repetition rate VHF APEX gun and the L-band DESY-PITZ-type gun. Work will be shown from Pegasus (UCLA), HiRES (LBNL) and FAST (FNAL).Specifically, data-driven models for online virtual diagnostics are presented, in this case, in the context of UED at HiRES, leading to a temporal resolution improvement. Methods for improving the fidelity of physics-based models are discussed, with examples at HiRES, Pegasus and FAST. Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis is applied to match simulations, in the context of photocathode studies at HiRES and Pegasus. Lastly, the augmentation of online model-based predictions with model-independent optimization is explored in a fluctuating environment at Pegasus and HiRES. A central theme of this dissertation is working with parameter fluctuations when modeling an accelerator beamline. Long-term drifts and shot-to-shot jitter exist in every accelerator to a varying degree and therefore play an important role in every chapter of this dissertation. This thesis attempts to address the issues associated with these fluctuations when trying to develop faithful model representations of the system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group: GeoCLUSTER App, Subsurface Simulation Results, and Publications

To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance, and economic viability of closed-loop geothermal systems in hot-dry rock, the Closed-Loop Geothermal Working Group -- a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed-loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and supercritical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying Python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the techno-economic analysis script are provided. This data submission will contain results from the Closed Loop Geothermal Working Group study that are within the public domain, including publications, simulation results, databases, and computer codes. GeoCLUSTER is a Python-based web application created using Dash, an open-source framework built on top of Flask that streamlines the building of data dashboards. GeoCLUSTER provides users with a collection of interactive methods for streamlining the exploration and visualization of an HDF5 dataset. The GeoCluster app and database are contained in the compressed file geocluster_vx.zip, where the "x" refers to the version number. For example, geocluster_v1.zip is Version 1 of the app. This zip file also contains installation instructions. **To use the GeoCLUSTER app in the cloud, click the link to "GeoCLUSTER on AWS" in the Resources section below. To use the GeoCLUSTER app locally, download the geocluster_vx.zip to your computer and uncompress this file. When uncompressed this file comprises two directories and the geocluster_installation.pdf file. The geo-data app contains the HDF5 database in condensed format, and the GeoCLUSTER directory contains the GeoCLUSTER app in the subdirectory dash_app, as app.py. The geocluster_installation.pdf file provides instructions on installing Python, the needed Python modules, and then executing the app.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

National Energy Water Treatment & Speciation (NEWTS): A Water & Critical Mineral Database and Dashboard

The scarcity of water resources, the need for beneficial water reuse, and the challenges of wastewater treatment are becoming increasingly pressing in economic, social, and environmental domains. Addressing these concerns requires effective treatment strategies to manage wastewater streams and tackle environmental and economic issues. Furthermore, the recovery of critical minerals from the waste streams associated with energy production holds the promise of offsetting treatment costs and securing local sources of valuable minerals. However, relevant data on these waste streams are dispersed and challenging to locate. The process of ingesting such data into modeling software often involves multiple steps, requiring data restructuring to meet software-input requirements. The non-standardized reporting of water data makes data aggregation and reformatting a time-consuming process. Additionally, essential attributes necessary for modeling water treatment and mineral scale formation are frequently missing. Moreover, data gaps vary depending on the region of interest. Consequently, there is a pressing need for high-quality energy-water composition data that can be easily imported into water chemistry modeling software. To address this need, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has created the National Energy Water Treatment and Speciation (NEWTS) Database and Dashboard—a free online tool catering to community leaders and water researchers. NEWTS facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the composition of energy-related wastewater streams in the United States. The datasets provide detailed concentrations and speciation of major and minor aqueous compounds in energy-related wastewater streams, including power plant leachate, acid mine drainage, brackish water, and oil and gas produced water across the United States. Many of the aqueous species are critical minerals (Li, REEs) in high demand to modernize the world’s energy infrastructure. Many of the datasets also contain volumetric flow-rates needed to model the treatment and reuse scenarios in advanced aqueous chemistry software programs. The NEWTS Database and Dashboard offer public access to hitherto challenging-to-access datasets, presented in a standardized format that is tailored for easy input into aqueous chemistry modeling software. By performing the work needed to transform dispersed, disparate data sources into unified, model-ready datasets, NEWTS serves as an essential resource in advancing water treatment research and sustainable water resource management.

produced water management↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the CEBAF Injector at 200 kV: Investigating K-Long Beam Conditions with and without Wien Filter

The upcoming K-Long experiment [1] ain Hall D at Jefferson Lab presents unique beam requirements, featuring a significantly low bunch repetition rate and an unusually high bunch charge. This experiment, which utilizes the CEBAF accelerator in conjunction with the GlueX experimental setup, aims to study strange hadron spectroscopy by measuring the differential cross section and polarizations of produced hyperons such as Λ, Σ, Ξ, and Ω. By directing an intense K-Long beam towards the LD2/LH2 target, new and valuable data can be obtained. To optimize the CEBAF injector specifically for this experiment, we employed Multi-Objective Genetic Optimization (MGO) using General Particle Tracer (GPT) simulations. Through this approach, we determined the optimal magnetic elements and radiofrequency (RF) settings required to achieve a K-Long bunch charge of 0.64 pC at an energy of 200 kV. We conducted simulations with both the Wien Filter turned on and off to examine its impact on the beam. Furthermore, we investigated the transmission efficiency and beam characteristics of electron beams with varying charge per bunch through the injector, considering the simultaneous operation of all four CEBAF Halls. The results of our study offer valuable insights and guidance for optimizing the CEBAF injector not only for the Jefferson Lab K-Long experiment but also for other experiments that entail similar beam conditions.

Pokharel, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Objective design of interlocking metasurfaces using conditional diffusion models

Unit cell design remains a major challenge for interlocking metasurfaces, a promising joining technology for dissimilar materials, due to the complex, competing, multivariate design space and the need for rapid adaptation to varying performance requirements. This study explores Conditional Diffusion Models as a design optimization tool for interlocking metasurfaces. Given the complex, competing, multivariate design space for interlocking metasurfaces, unit cell design remains a major challenge for this joining technology. We trained a conditional diffusion model on 25,000 finite element analysis-simulated interlocking metasurface unit cells to generate designs with tailored thermo-mechanical properties (tensile strength, shear strength, and thermal conductivity) based on specified performance criteria. The model demonstrated a success rate of approximately 72 % in producing designs that met specified property bounds. The conditional diffusion model generated both thermally resistive and conductive designs, revealing clear trends in design characteristics: taller, dendritic structures were advantageous for tensile loads, while shorter, robust designs excelled in shear applications. Our findings indicate that the model's performance is more influenced by the breadth of the design space than by the quantity of training data, highlighting the importance of expansive design domains for generating innovative solutions. This work establishes conditional diffusion models as a highly efficient and adaptable tool for rapid interlocking metasurface unit cell design, paving the way for advancements in multi-material joining technologies, as well as highlighting the justification to leverage conditional diffusion models as design tools across complex design domains.

Conditional diffusion models↗
DOE OSTI2020

A control-oriented combustion model framework for compression ignition engines operating on low-reactivity fuel

This work focuses on zero-dimensional modeling of the heat release rate in a compression ignition engine operating on gasoline-like fuels. Due to the properties of gasoline, such as high volatility and longer ignition delay than diesel, the injection strategies can vary significantly from the operation with conventional diesel fuel. Different injection strategies are commonly used to achieve varying degrees of in-cylinder stratification in order to shape the combustion event and maximize efficiency. The proposed zero-dimensional combustion model was developed to account for the different stages in combustion caused by the fuel stratification. As the ignition delay model is an integral part of the entire combustion process and significantly affects the prediction accuracy, special attention has been paid to local phenomena influencing ignition delay. A one-dimensional spray model by Musculus and Kattke was employed in conjunction with a Lagrangian tracking approach in order to estimate the local air–fuel ratio within the spray tip, as a proxy for reactivity. The local air–fuel ratio, in-cylinder temperature and pressure were used in an integral fashion to estimate the ignition delay. Heat release rates were modeled using first-order non-linear differential equations. The proposed combustion model was validated against experimental data of a heavy-duty compression ignition engine with up to three injection events at mostly 1038 r/min and 14 bar brake mean effective pressure. Further validation of the model was carried out at other engine loads and speeds. Model prediction errors in CA50 of less than 1 °CA across all conditions were found. Modeling results of other combustion metrics such as combustion duration and indicated mean effective pressure are also highly satisfactory. In addition, the model has been shown to be capable of estimating the ringing intensity for most conditions.

Pamminger, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VI: cosmological constraints from the measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations

We present cosmological results from the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), to be released in the DESI Data Release 1. DESI BAO provide robust measurements of the transverse comoving distance and Hubble rate, or their combination, relative to the sound horizon, in seven redshift bins from over 6 million extragalactic objects in the redshift range 0.1 < z < 4.2. To mitigate confirmation bias, a blind analysis was implemented to measure the BAO scales. DESI BAO data alone are consistent with the standard flat ΛCDM cosmological model with a matter density Ω m =0.295±0.015. Paired with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the robustly measured acoustic angular scale from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), DESI requires H 0 =(68.52±0.62) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In conjunction with CMB anisotropies from Planck and CMB lensing data from Planck and ACT, we find Ω m =0.307± 0.005 and H 0 =(67.97±0.38) km s -1 Mpc -1 . Extending the baseline model with a constant dark energy equation of state parameter w, DESI BAO alone requirew=-0.99 +0.15 -0.13 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI with CMB or with type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) individually prefer w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This preference is 2.6σ for the DESI+CMB combination, and persists or grows when SN Ia are added in, giving results discrepant with the ΛCDM model at the 2.5σ, 3.5σ or 3.9σ levels for the addition of the Pantheon+, Union3, or DES-SN5YR supernova datasets respectively. For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass ∑ m ν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit ∑ m ν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a ∑ m ν > 0 (∑ m ν > 0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed if the background dynamics are allowed to deviate from flat ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Entanglement phase transitions in random stabilizer tensor networks

Here we explore a class of random tensor network models with “stabilizer” local tensors which we name random stabilizer tensor networks (RSTNs). For RSTNs defined on a two-dimensional square lattice, we perform extensive numerical studies of entanglement phase transitions between volume-law and area-law entangled phases of the one-dimensional boundary states. These transitions occur when either (a) the bond dimension D of the constituent tensors is varied or (b) the tensor network is subject to random breaking of bulk bonds, implemented by forced measurements. In the absence of broken bonds, we find that the RSTN supports a volume-law entangled boundary state with bond dimension D ≥ 3 where D is a prime number, and an area-law entangled boundary state for D = 2. Upon breaking bonds at random in the bulk with probability p, there exists a critical measurement rate p c for each D ≥ 3 above which the boundary state becomes area-law entangled. To explore the conformal invariance at these entanglement transitions for different prime D, we consider tensor networks on a finite rectangular geometry with a variety of boundary conditions, and extract universal operator scaling dimensions via extensive numerical calculations of the entanglement entropy, mutual information, and mutual negativity at their respective critical points. Our results at large D approach known universal data of percolation conformal field theory, while showing clear discrepancies at smaller D, suggesting a distinct entanglement transition universality class for each prime D. We further study universal entanglement properties in the volume-law phase and demonstrate quantitative agreement with the recently proposed description in terms of a directed polymer in a random environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning analysis reveals relationship between pomacentrid calls and environmental cues

Sound production rates of fishes can be used as an indicator for coral reef health, providing an opportunity to utilize long-term acoustic recordings to assess environmental change. As acoustic datasets become more common, computational techniques need to be developed to facilitate analysis of the massive data files produced by long-term monitoring. Machine learning techniques demonstrate an advantage in the identification of fish sounds over manual sampling approaches. Here we evaluated the ability of convolutional neural networks to identify and monitor call patterns for pomacentrids (damselfishes) in a tropical reef region of the western Pacific. A stationary hydrophone was deployed for 39 mo (2014-2018) in the National Park of American Samoa to continuously record the local marine acoustic environment. A neural network was trained—achieving 94% identification accuracy of pomacentrids—to demonstrate the applicability of machine learning in fish acoustics and ecology. The distribution of sound production was found to vary on diel and interannual timescales. Additionally, the distribution of sound production was correlated with wind speed, water temperature, tidal amplitude, and sound pressure level. This research has broad implications for state-of-the-art acoustic analysis and promises to be an efficient, scalable asset for ecological research, environmental monitoring, and conservation planning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of electrode porosity architecture on electrochemical performances of 1 mm-thick LiFePO4 binder-free Li-ion electrodes fabricated by Spark Plasma Sintering

Thick electrodes with high active material loadings have been intensively studied over the last couple of decades in pursuit of achieving high energy density systems. To optimize and enhance the electrochemical performance of such electrodes, one has to control the pore morphology by, for example, varying the pore size and shape, and the level of porosity. In the present work, the fabrication of thick binder-free LiFePO4 (LFP) electrodes with two different pore sizes (12 and 20 mu m) and porosities (21 vol% and 44 vol%) using Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) and templating approach is reported. The well-controlled porous architecture inside the thick electrodes is realized by fine-tuning experimental parameters. The impact of porosity architecture on electrochemical performance is quantified and correlated with the 3D tortuosity values determined from both micro-computed tomography and electrochemical impedance-based experimental methods. Based on the micro-computed tomography data analysis, estimated tortuosity values along X, Y, and Z axes reveal an anisotropic effect perpendicularly to the SPS compression axis (Z-direction). This is particularly profoundly observed in the samples with larger pores (20 mu m). The correlation between morphological properties and the rate capability performance is established indicating that the capacity loss happens mainly due to the Li-ion diffusion limitations.

Cathode material↗
DOE OSTI2024

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Miniaturized Ignition Screening Rapid Compression Machine for probing low-to-intermediate temperature chemistry

With an objective to achieve net-zero emissions by no later than 2050, biofuels hold enormous potential as sustainable, renewable fuels that can be produced on a large scale. However, fuels of a similar type, derived from limited feedstock batch can dramatically vary in terms of their chemical structures and compositions, causing significant differences in physicochemical properties mainly influencing ignition-relevant properties. Rigorous prescreening and testing efforts are involved to evaluate fuels to comply with engines equipped with advanced combustion modes. The testing of some of these fuels implies low quantity fuel samples, access to relevant temperature and pressure conditions, high reproducibility, and a high throughput rate. In light of these considerations, a Miniaturized Ignition Screening Rapid Compression Machine (MISR) has been developed and built at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC). Some design features include a smaller bellows-actuated driver section compared to other RCM designs, an adjustable brake section, and full optical access. The setup is designed to achieve reaction conditions (T > 600K and P < 100 bar with repetition rates of about 8 seconds per experiment). These conditions are relevant to low-to-intermediate temperature auto-ignition and can generate data for developing relevant chemical kinetics models or ignition maps. A brief insight into MISR design and its operating mechanism is shown. Also, to demonstrate the performance characteristics of the MISR, Ignition Delay (I.D) experiments for ethanol fuel at different equivalence ratios (Φ) are discussed in the context of plans with additional optical diagnostics, high-speed imaging, and gas sampling experiments.

Tomar, Mukul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Underlying Roles of Polyol Additives in Promoting CO2 Capture in PEI/Silica Adsorbents

Solid-supported amines having low molecular weight branched poly(ethylenimine) (PEI) physically impregnated into porous solid supports are promising adsorbents for CO2 capture. Co-impregnating short-chain poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) together with PEI alters the performance of the adsorbent, delivering improved amine efficiency (AE, mol CO2 sorbed / mol N) and faster CO2 uptake rates. To uncover the physical basis for this improved gas capture performance, we probed the distribution and mobility of the polymers in the pores via small angle neutron scattering (SANS), solid-state NMR, and molecular dynamic (MD) simulation studies. SANS and MD simulations reveal that PEG displaces wall-bound PEI, making amines more accessible for CO2 sorption. Solid-state NMR and MD simulation suggest intercalation of PEG into PEI domains, separating PEI domains and reducing amine-amine interactions, providing potential PEG-rich and amine-poor interfacial domains that bind CO2 weakly via physisorption while providing facile pathways for CO2 diffusion. Contrary to a prior literature hypothesis, no evidence is obtained for PEG facilitating PEI mobility in solid supports. Instead, the data suggest that PEG chains coordinate to PEI, form larger bodies with reduced mobility compared to PEI alone. We also demonstrate promising CO2 uptake and desorption kinetics at varied temperatures, given by favorable amine distribution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cropland abandonment between 1986 and 2018 across the United States: spatiotemporal patterns and current land uses

Knowing where and when croplands have been abandoned or otherwise removed from cultivation is fundamental to evaluating future uses of these areas, e.g. as sites for ecological restoration, recultivation, bioenergy production, or other uses. However, large uncertainties remain about the location and time of cropland abandonment and how this process and the availability of associated lands vary spatially and temporally across the United States. Here, we present a nationwide, 30 m resolution map of croplands abandoned throughout the period of 1986–2018 for the conterminous United States (CONUS). We mapped the location and time of abandonment from annual cropland layers we created in Google Earth Engine from 30 m resolution Landsat imagery using an automated classification method and training data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Cropland Data Layer. Our abandonment map has overall accuracies of 0.91 and 0.65 for the location and time of abandonment, respectively. From 1986 to 2018, 12.3 (±2.87) million hectares (Mha) of croplands were abandoned across CONUS, with areas of greatest change over the Ogallala Aquifer, the southern Mississippi Alluvial Plain, the Atlantic Coast, North Dakota, northern Montana, and eastern Washington state. The average annual nationwide abandoned area across our study period was 0.51 Mha per year. Annual abandonment peaked between 1997 and 1999 at a rate of 0.63 Mha year –1 , followed by a continuous decrease to 0.41 Mha year –1 in 2009–2011. Among the abandoned croplands, 53% (6.5 Mha) changed to grassland and pasture, 18.6% (2.28 Mha) to shrubland and forest, 8.4% (1.03 Mha) to wetlands, and 4.6% (0.56 Mha) to non-vegetated lands. Of the areas that we mapped as abandoned, 19.6% (2.41 Mha) were enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program as of 2020. Our new map highlights the long-term dynamic nature of agricultural land use and its relation to various competitive pressures and land use policies in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Varied farm-level carbon intensities of corn feedstock help reduce corn ethanol greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract A reduction in the overall carbon intensity (CI) of a crop-based biofuel can be achieved by cutting down the CI of the biofuel’s feedstock, which in turn correlates significantly to agricultural management practices. Proposals are being made to incentivize low-carbon biofuel feedstocks under U.S. fuel regulatory programs to promote sustainable farming practices by individual farms. For such an incentive scheme to function properly, robust data collection and verification are needed at the farm level. This study presents our collaboration with U.S. private sector companies to collect and verify the corn production data necessary for feedstock-specific CI calculation at the farm level, through a carefully designed questionnaire, to demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of data collection at scale. We surveyed 71 farms that produced 0.2 million metric tons of corn grain in 2018 in a Midwestern U.S. state to obtain information on key parameters affecting corn ethanol feedstock CI, such as grain yields, fertilizer/chemical application rates, and agronomic practices. Feedstock-specific CI was calculated in the unit of grams (g) CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) of greenhouse gases per kilogram (kg) of corn produced. Results showed large CI variations—from 119 to 407 g CO 2 e kg −1 of corn—due to the farm-level inventory, while the production-weighted average CI for all surveyed farms was 210 g CO 2 e kg −1 , comparable to the national average CI of 204 g CO 2 e kg −1 . The nitrogen fertilizer type applied and rate were identified as key factors contributing most to CI variations at the farm level. The estimated N 2 O emissions from fertilizer and biomass nitrogen inputs to soil accounted for 51% of the overall farm-level CI and therefore need to be better monitored at farm level with high resolution. We concluded that this feedstock-specific, farm-level CI evaluation has the potential to be used to incentivize low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗