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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

River–aquifer interactions enhancing evapotranspiration in a semiarid riparian zone: A modelling study

The hydrologic flows across the river–aquifer interface play an important role in groundwater dynamics and biogeochemical reactions within the subsurface; however, little is known about the effects of river–aquifer interactions on land surface processes. In this study, we developed a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) land surface and subsurface model at a high resolution (~1 km) that accounts for high-frequency hydrologic exchange flow conditions to investigate how river–aquifer interactions modulate surface water budgets in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids watershed, a typical semiarid watershed located in the northwestern United States where river stage fluctuates in response to reservoir releases changing. Our results show that the spatiotemporal dynamics of river–aquifer interactions are highly heterogeneous, driven mainly by river-stage fluctuations. Adding 6.64 × 10 6 m 3 year –1 of water over the watershed from the river to groundwater owing to the lateral flow, river–aquifer interactions led to an increase in soil evaporation and transpiration supplied by higher soil moisture content, particularly in deeper subsurface. In a hypothetic future scenarios where a 5-m rise in river stage was assumed, the hydrologic flow exchange rates were intensified, resulting in higher surface water over the entire watershed. Overall, lateral flow induced by river–aquifer exchanges leads to an increase in evapotranspiration of ~75% in the historical period and of ~83% in the hypothetical future scenario. Finally, our study demonstrates the potential of coupled model as an effective tool for understanding river–aquifer–land surface interactions, and indicates that river–aquifer interactions fundamentally alter the water balance of the riparian zone for the semiarid watershed and will likely become more frequent and intense in the future under the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Storm Direction on Flood Frequency Analysis

Abstract Storm direction modulates a hydrograph's magnitude and duration, thus having a potentially large effect on local flood risk. However, how changes in the preferential storm direction affect the probability distribution of peak flows remains unknown. We address this question with a novel Monte Carlo approach where stochastically transposed storms drive hydrologic simulations over medium and mesoscale watersheds in the Midwestern United States. Systematic rotations of these watersheds are used to emulate changes in the preferential storm direction. We found that the peak flow distribution impacts are scale‐dependent, with larger changes observed in the mesoscale watershed than in the medium‐scale watershed. We attribute this to the high diversity of storm patterns and the storms' scale relative to watershed size. This study highlights the potential of the proposed stochastic framework to address fundamental questions about hydrologic extremes when our ability to observe these events in nature is hindered by technical constraints and short time records.

Perez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildland–urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California

The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland–urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. In conclusion, the increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Persistence of Soil Carbon After a 30-Year Nitrogen Fertilization Experiment at the Fernow Experimental Forest, WV

We sampled soils in a previously nitrogen (N)-fertilized watershed (Watershed 3), which received 35 kg N per hectare annually for 30 years, and a reference watershed (Watershed 7), 4 years after the end of a 30-year N fertilization experiment at the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia. As N deposition has reduced soil pH and plant carbon (C) investments into the rhizosphere, we compared the extent to which removing these potential limitations to microbial decomposition by increasing soil pH, adding artificial root exudates, or elevating soil temperature would increase microbial decomposition (and soil C losses) in soils that have and have not received excess N inputs. As such, we incubated soils with and without the addition of artificial root exudates and dolomitic lime (2 amendment treatments and 1 untreated control), at three different temperatures (15, 20, and 25 C) to simulate warming. We measured soil respiration, enzyme activity (acid phosphatase, N -acetyl-β-glucosaminidase, beta-glucosidase, phenol oxidase, and peroxidase), and microbial biomass carbon in a 15-week microcosm experiment. All of the datasheets include the metadata for all of the treatment combinations from this incubation experiment (ID, incubation temperature, treatment, watershed).The "Soil_Chemistry_Data.csv" data includes (1) the ratio of dry soil weight (g) by wet (or fresh) soil weight (g) after 72 hours at 65 C, (2) the wet (or fresh) weight of the soil samples used to determine soil pH, and (3) soil pH, which was measured in CaCl2. Detailed methods for the measurements of soil pH are described in the datasheet itself.The "Respiration_Data.csv" data includes (1) respiration day for the measurement, and (2) cumulative CO2 respiration (mmol) measured in the microcosms on specific days.The "Microbial_Biomass_Data.csv" data includes (1) mmol microbial biomass carbon per g (dry weight) of soil in each microcosm.The "Enzyme_Data.csv" data includes (1) all extracellular soil enzyme activity (N-acetyl-glucosaminidase (NAG), acid phosphatase (AP), β-glucosidase (BG), phenol oxidase and peroxidase) that we measured in our microcosms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Spectrometer orthorectified at-sensor radiance from NEON AOP imaging spectroscopy surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) orthorectified at-sensor radiance derived from measurements collected by the Imaging Spectrometer-1 (NIS-1) onboard the NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). NIS-1 captures light reflected from the Earth’s surface in 426 discrete wavelength bands as raw digital numbers (DNs; Level 0). These data are then calibrated to physical units (uW/cm²·sr·nm) following the processing steps described in the NEON Imaging Spectrometer Level 1B Calibrated Radiance Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD; Gallery 2022). The data delivered here are the primary inputs for the surface reflectance product in “Custom surface reflectance, shade masks, and equivalent water thickness maps for the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study” (Carroll et al. 2026). For intertemporal comparison, the radiance data here are most directly relatable to the v2 radiance data in “NEON AOP Imaging Spectroscopy Survey of Upper East River Colorado Watersheds: Raw-Space Radiance and Observational Variable Dataset” (Goulden et al. 2018), to which the same processing methodology was applied. Together, the radiance and reflectance data enable users to exploit the unique reflection signatures of different surface objects for land cover classification, foliar trait mapping, plant vigor assessment, water content estimation, trace-element identification, and other scientific applications. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. Within each domain, data are delivered by flightline as orthorectified and calibrated hyperspectral rasters in Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) format, with radiance values provided in uW/cm²·sr·nm on a fixed, uniform Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid at 1 meter spatial resolution. The radiance rasters include all 426 NIS-1 spectral bands, along with associated quality-assurance (QA) and diagnostic and ancillary layers needed for atmospheric correction workflows. Orthorectified radiance is produced from pushbroom spectrometer observations by applying NEON’s radiometric calibration (including bad pixel masking, dark subtract, dark pedestal shift correction, electronic panel ghost correction, grating ghost correction, deblur correction and flat-fielding) and spectral calibration (using spectral response function band centers and full-width at half-maximum intensity), followed by geolocation and regridding to the fixed grid. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Impact of Riparian Hollows on River Corridor Nitrogen Exports

Recent studies in snowmelt-dominated catchments have documented changes in nitrogen (N) retention over time, such as declines in watershed exports of N, though there is a limited understanding of the controlling processes driving these trends. Working in the mountainous headwater East River Colorado watershed, we explored the effects of riparian hollows as N-cycling hotspots and as important small-scale controls on observed watershed trends. Using a modeling-based approach informed by remote sensing and in situ observations, we simulated the N-retention capacity of riparian hollows with seasonal and yearly hydrobiogeochemical perturbations imposed as drivers. We then implemented a scaling approach to quantify the relative contribution of riparian hollows to the total river corridor N budget. We found that riparian hollows primarily serve as N sinks, with N-transformation rates significantly limited by periods of enhanced groundwater upwelling and promoted at the onset of rainfall events. Given these observed hydrologic controls, we expect that the nitrate ( NO 3 - ) sink capacity of riparian hollows will increase in magnitude with future climatic perturbations, specifically the shift to more frequent rainfall events and fewer snowmelt events, as projected for many mountainous headwater catchments. Our current estimates suggest that while riparian hollows provision ~5–20% of NO 3 - to the river network, they functionally act as inhibitors to upland NO 3 - reaching the stream. Our work linking transient hydrological conditions to numerical biogeochemical simulations is an important step in assessing N-retaining features relative to the watershed N budget and better understanding the role of small-scale features within watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Editorial: Linking Hydrological and Biogeochemical Processes in Riparian Corridors

The riparian corridor is a key component of the critical zone and an essential component of watershed systems. According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary, the word riparian is derived from the Latin word riparius, meaning “existing alongside a river.” Riparian corridors typically extend from a few meters to hundreds of meters adjacent to a river and are marked by rich biodiversity, vegetation, and intense biogeochemical activity. They act as integrators of watershed processes and constitute the primary pathways for the subsurface geochemical exports from the watershed. Although riparian corridors comprise only 2–10% of a watershed's area, as much as 90–98% of biogeochemical processing in watersheds occurs in this region, thereby affecting the subsurface geochemical exports and downstream river water quality. Indeed, the riparian corridor is a good example of the Pareto principle. This outsized contribution occurs at the interface between aquatic (river) and terrestrial (land) environments, where interactions between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes are intensified. Variations in the river corridor over time can thus also have outsize impacts. Therefore, it is important to understand the hydrological and biogeochemical linkages in riparian corridors to determine water availability and quality for sustainable management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Stream chemistry for core sites in Gwynns Falls

In the Baltimore urban long-term ecological research (LTER) project, (Baltimore Ecosystem Study, BES) we use the watershed approach to evaluate integrated ecosystem function. The LTER research is centered on the Gwynns Falls watershed, a 17,150 ha catchment that traverses a gradient from the urban core of Baltimore, through older urban residential (1900 - 1950) and suburban (1950- 1980) zones, rapidly suburbanizing areas and a rural/suburban fringe. Our long-term sampling network includes four longitudinal sampling sites along the Gwynns Falls as well as several small (40 - 100 ha) watersheds located within or near to the Gwynns Falls. The longitudinal sites provide data on water and nutrient fluxes in the different land use zones of the watershed (rural/suburban, rapidly suburbanizing, old suburban, urban core) and the small watersheds provide more focused data on specific land use areas (forest, agriculture, rural/suburban, urban). Each of the gaging sites is continuously monitored for discharge and is sampled weekly for chemistry. Additional chemical sampling is carried out in a supplemental set of sites to provide a greater range of land use. Weekly analyses includes nitrate, phosphate, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chloride and sulfate, turbidity, fecal coliforms, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH. Cations, dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen and metals are measured on selected samples. Streamflow data for this site are posted at: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/nwisman?site_no=015835701

Groffman, Peter M (ORCID:0000000183716255)↗
NASA NTRS1994

Land Use Patterns and Fecal Contamination of Coastal Waters in Western Puerto Rico

The Department of Environmental Health of the Graduate School of Public Health of the Medical Sciences Campus, University of Puerto Rico (UPR-RCM) conducted this research project on how different patterns of land use affect the microbiological quality of rivers flowing into Mayaguez Bay in Western Puerto Rico. Coastal shellfish growing areas, stream and ocean bathing beaches, and pristine marine sites in the Bay are affected by the discharge of the three study rivers. Satellite imagery was used to study watershed land uses which serve as point and nonpoint sources of pathogens affecting stream and coastal water users. The study rivers drain watersheds of different size and type of human activity (including different human waste treatment and disposal facilities). Land use and land cover in the study watersheds were interpreted, classified and mapped using remotely sensed images from NASA's Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). This study found there is a significant relationship between watershed land cover and microbiological water quality of rivers flowing into Mayaguez Bay in Western Puerto Rico. Land covers in the Guanajibo, Anasco, and Yaguez watersheds were classified into forested areas, pastures, agricultural zones and urban areas so as to determine relative contributions to fecal water contamination. The land cover classification was made processing TM images with IDRISI and ERDAS software.

Norat, Jose↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic effects on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in western US streams

Abstract Stream macroinvertebrate assemblages are shaped by natural and human‐related factors that operate through complex hierarchical pathways. Quantifying these relationships can provide additional insights into stream ecological assessment. We applied a structural equation modeling framework to evaluate hypothesized pathways by which watershed, riparian, and in‐stream factors affect benthic macroinvertebrate condition in the Western Mountains (WMT) and Xeric (XER) ecoregions in the United States. We developed a conceptual model grounded in theory, empirical evidence, and expert opinion to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) macroinvertebrate assemblages are primarily driven by proximal, in‐stream factors (e.g., water quality and physical habitat); (2) anthropogenic land uses affect macroinvertebrates indirectly by altering in‐stream characteristics; and (3) riparian vegetation cover attenuates land use effects. We tested our model separately on three measures of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage condition: ratio of observed‐to‐expected taxonomic richness (O/E); a multimetric index (MMI); and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT). In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover, in‐stream physical habitat (relative bed stability), and water chemistry (total nitrogen) were the top three predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages, each having over two times the magnitude of effect on macroinvertebrates compared with watershed‐level predictors. In the arid XER, annual precipitation and stream flow characteristics were top predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages and had similar magnitudes of effect as in‐stream water chemistry. Path analyses revealed that land use activities in the watershed and at the stream site degraded macroinvertebrate assemblages indirectly by altering relative bed stability, water quality, and riparian cover/complexity. Increased riparian cover was associated with greater macroinvertebrate condition by reducing land use impacts on stream flow, streambed substrate, and water quality, but the pathways differed among ecoregions. In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages partly through indirect pathways associated with greater streambed stability and reduced total nitrogen concentrations. In contrast, in the XER, watershed‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages through greater specific stream power. Identifying the relative effects of and pathways by which natural and anthropogenic factors affect macroinvertebrates can serve as a framework for prioritizing management and conservation efforts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

A web-based decision support system for collaborative mitigation of multiple water-related hazards using serious gaming

The paper presents a web-based application developed as a medium for executing a serious game to enhance multi-jurisdictional collaborative planning and decision making for mitigation of multiple hazards related to water (i.e., floods, soil erosions, water quality). The gaming application is integrated into the Iowa Watershed Decision Support System (IoWaDSS) designed to serve as a comprehensive multi-sectoral data repository along with the simulation results of process modeling to educate and inform communities on the status of their watersheds during extreme conditions. The interactive serious gaming application was devised to encourage public engagement, facilitate communication and positive relationship between watershed communities, and make the decision process more attractive and transparent for the stakeholders. The web environment offers easily-accessible, user-friendly interfaces that match the skills and knowledge level of a non-technical user. Developed with adaptive design and flexible architecture, the gaming application is generalizable and extendable to support hazard mitigation in other watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing green infrastructure placement under precipitation uncertainty

Increased urbanization, infrastructure degradation, and climate change threaten to overwhelm stormwater systems across the nation, rendering them ineffective. Green Infrastructure (GI) practices are low cost, low regret strategies that can contribute to urban runoff management. However, questions remain as to how to best distribute GI practices through urban watersheds given precipitation uncertainty and the variable hydrological responses to them. We develop stochastic programming models to determine the optimal placement of GI practices across a set of candidate locations in a watershed to minimize the total expected runoff under medium-term precipitation uncertainties. Specifically, we first develop a two-stage stochastic programming model. Next, we reformulate this model using perturbed parameters to reduce the requisite computational time and extend it to multi-stage. In addition, we introduce constraints that allow for incorporating sub-catchment-level runoff reduction considerations. Furthermore, we account for hydrological connectivity in the watershed using an underlying acyclic connectivity graph of sub-catchments and incorporate various practical considerations into the models. In addition, we develop a systemic approach to downscale the existing daily precipitation projections into hourly units and efficiently estimate the corresponding hydrological responses. These advancements are brought together in a case study for an urban watershed in a mid-sized city in the U.S., where we perform sensitivity analyses, evaluate the importance of the considered constraints, and provide insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗