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At least 469 records · Page 26

Mechanisms of woody-plant mortality under rising drought, CO 2 and vapour pressure deficit

Drought-associated woody plant mortality may have increased over the past several decades, and is projected to increase in the future, impacting terrestrial climate forcing, biodiversity, and resource availability. The mechanisms underlying such mortality, however, are debated owing to interactions between multiple drivers and mechanisms. In this work, we synthesize knowledge of drought-related tree mortality under a warming and drying atmosphere with rising atmospheric CO 2 . Drought-associated mortality results from the depletion of pools of water and carbon within a plant and declines in their fluxes relative to demand by living tissues. These pools and fluxes are interdependent and underlay plant defenses against biotic agents. Death via failure to maintain a positive water balance is particularly dependent on soil-to-root conductance, capacitance, vulnerability to hydraulic failure, cuticular water losses, and dehydration tolerance, all of which could be exacerbated by reduced carbon supply rates to support cellular survival e.g. the carbon starvation process. The depletion of plant water and carbon pools accelerates under rising vapor pressure deficit; however, increasing CO 2 can mitigate these impacts. Advancing knowledge and reducing predictive uncertainties requires studies that integrate carbon, water, and defensive processes, and utilize a range of experimental and modeling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-eddy simulation of an atmospheric bore and associated gravity wave effects on wind farm performance in the southern Great Plains

Gravity waves are a common occurrence in the atmosphere, with a variety of generation mechanisms. Their impact on wind farms has only recently gained attention, with most studies focused on wind farm-induced gravity waves. In this study, the interaction between a wind farm and gravity waves generated by an atmospheric bore event is assessed using multiscale large-eddy simulations. The atmospheric bore is created by a thunderstorm downdraft from a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS). The associated gravity waves impact the wind resource and power production at a nearby wind farm during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) in the US southern Great Plains. A two-domain nested setup (Δx=300 and 20 m) is used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced with data from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, to capture both the formation of the bore and its interaction with individual wind turbines. The MCS is resolved on the large outer domain, where the structure of the bore and the associated gravity waves are found to be especially sensitive to parameterized microphysics processes. On the finer inner domain, gravity wave interactions with individual wind turbines are resolved; wake dynamics are captured using a generalized actuator disk parameterization in WRF. The gravity waves are found to have a strong effect on the atmosphere above the wind farm; however, the effect of the waves is more nuanced closer to the surface where there is additional turbulence, both ambient and wake-generated. Notably, the gravity waves modulate the mesoscale environment by weakening and dissipating the preexisting low-level jet, which reduces hub-height wind speed and hence the simulated power output, which is confirmed by the observed supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) power data. Additionally, the gravity waves induce local wind direction variations correlated with fluctuations in pressure, which lead to fluctuations in the simulated power output as various turbines within the farm are subjected to waking from nearby turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model for Humidity-Mediated Diffusion on Aluminum Surfaces and Its Role in Accelerating Atmospheric Aluminum Corrosion

Bare aluminum metal surfaces are highly reactive, which leads to the spontaneous formation of a protective oxide surface layer. Because many subsequent corrosive processes are mediated by water, the structure and dynamics of water at the oxide interface are anticipated to influence corrosion kinetics. Here, using molecular dynamics simulations with a reactive force field, we model the behavior of aqueous aluminum metal ions in water adsorbed onto aluminum oxide surfaces across a range of ion concentrations and water film thicknesses corresponding to increasing relative humidity. We find that the structure and diffusivity of both the water and the metal ions depend strongly on the humidity of the environment and the relative height within the adsorbed water film. Aqueous aluminum ion diffusion rates in water films corresponding to a typical indoor relative humidity of 30% are found to be more than 2 orders of magnitude slower than self-diffusion of water in the bulk limit. Connections between metal ion diffusivity and corrosion reaction kinetics are assessed parametrically with a reductionist model based on a 1D continuum reaction–diffusion equation. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating the properties specific to interfacial water in predictive models of aluminum corrosion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗

Multiscale Characterization of Electrode-Induced Degradation in Perovskite Solar Cells

The stability of metal-halide-perovskite (MHP) solar cells must be understood and improved for the commercial viability of MHP technologies. Here, we apply multiscale characterization methods to study degradation modes, specifically electrode corrosion, for p-i-n MHP partial device stacks and full devices that are stored in the dark under an inert atmosphere. Our multiscale characterization approaches include full-device electro-optical performance using current-voltage (JV) curves and spatial imaging with electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL). We further correlate interface properties using cross-sectional Kelvin probe force microscopy, which maps the nanoscale electric field properties, and electron microscopy, which demonstrates structural and chemical features. Devices stored as a full device stack degrade primarily by metal (Ag) electrode diffusion into the absorber, with formation of AgI byproducts and Ag accumulation near the indium tin oxide (ITO) contact. This causes decomposition of the perovskite absorber domains, loss of the potential drop at the electron transport layer (ETL)/perovskite interface near the metal contact, and increased equivalent resistance at the perovskite/hole transport layer (HTL) interface near the ITO contact. The devices stored without metal show a different degradation pathway dominated by corrosion of the ITO, creating voids at the ITO electrode surface with diffusion of In and Sn into the absorber. We conclude that metal electrode-induced degradation is the most severe degradation pathway under dark storage, but that ITO corrosion and absorber instability must also be mitigated. We further demonstrate mitigation of these degradation pathways by changes to the device stack, including a SnO x blocking layer at the ETL side and replacing ITO with FTO at the HTL side. These results provide a useful demonstration of specific dark degradation pathways at each electrode interface, as well as a unique multiscale example that links degradation of chemical, structural, and electrical interface properties to the full-device electro-optical characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification

Arctic Amplification (AA), the amplified surface warming in the Arctic relative to the global mean, is a robust and impactful feature of climate change. While the basic physical picture of AA has been depicted, a clear understanding of how the degree of AA is determined has not been established. Here, by deciphering the intricate role of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), we build a two-box energy-balance model of AA and derive that the degree of AA is a simple nonlinear function of the Arctic and global feedbacks, the meridional heterogeneity in radiative forcing, and the partial sensitivities of AHT to global mean warming and meridional warming gradient. The formula captures the varying degree of AA in individual climate models and attributes the variation to specific physical factors. It further conveys a concise picture of how essential physics mutually determine the degree of AA and limit the range within 1.5~3.5. Our results articulate AHT as both forcing and feedback to AA, highlighting its partial sensitivities instead of total change as the key parameters for understanding AA. We also find that the effect of lapse rate feedback, a widely-recognized major contributor to AA, is fully offset by the effect of water vapor feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermomechanical Processing of Uranium Alloys with 10 and 50 Weight Percent Zirconium

This work focuses on casting and thermomechanical processing for moderate sized (500-1000g) 10% by weight and 50% by weight uranium-zirconium alloys. Three castings of uranium – 10wt% zirconium and a fourth casting of uranium – 50wt% zirconium were completed using different castings processes. The first casting process relied on only induction mixing within the VIM system thereby eliminating the need for an arc-melting feedstock preparation step. The second casting process used the arc-melting process prior for feedstock to the same VIM system. In this study, the induction mixing process alone with a graphite crucible appears insufficient for the fabrication of UZr alloys. Graphite is suitable with the use of master alloy UZr feedstock produced by arc-melting. There was a moderate increase of approximately 100 ppm of carbon within the U10Zr alloys. However, there was a near 1000 ppm increase of carbon in the U50Zr alloy. This carbon content is considered too high for forming processes, and therefore, warrants the use of a ceramic crucible for UZr castings near 50wt% zirconium. Zirconia does not appear suitable for UZr castings near 50wt% zirconium. The use of Beryllia or Thoria may be a more suitable option. However, due to the significantly lower liquidus and lower zirconium content, Zirconia crucibles do appear viable for carbon reduction in the U10Zr system. Two thermomechanical processes are also studied in this work - hot extrusion of the U50Zr system and heat treatment in an argon atmosphere. This work demonstrated that extrusion of the U50Zr alloy near 680°C is a viable choice even with +1000 ppm carbon. Extrusion of the U50Zr system near 630°C was unsuccessful and does not appear viable unless significant force and tooling strength is available. There appears to be a moderate increase in extrudate hardness when compared to as-cast. Heat-treatment reduced the hardness of as-cast alloys in the U10Zr castings as well as resolve some variance in the microstructures. However, for the U50Zr billet that did not successfully extrude at 630°C, heat treatment at 900°C for 96 hours did not have a significant impact on hardness or microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Intensive aerosol properties of boreal and regional biomass burning aerosol at Mt. Bachelor Observatory: larger and black carbon (BC)-dominant particles transported from Siberian wildfires

We characterize the aerosol physical and optical properties of 13 transported biomass burning (BB) events. BB events included long-range influence from fires in Alaskan and Siberian boreal forests transported to Mt. Bachelor Observatory (MBO) in the free troposphere (FT) over 8–14+ d and regional wildfires in northern California and southwestern Oregon transported to MBO in the boundary layer (BL) over 10 h to 3 d. Intensive aerosol optical properties and normalized enhancement ratios for BB events were derived from measured aerosol light scattering coefficients (σ scat ), aerosol light-absorbing coefficients (σ abs ), fine particulate matter (PM 1 ), and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements made from July to September 2019, with particle size distribution collected from August to September. The observations showed that the Siberian BB events had a lower scattering Ångström exponent (SAE), a higher mass scattering efficiency (MSE; Δσ scat /ΔPM 1 ), and a bimodal aerosol size distribution with a higher geometric mean diameter (D g ). We hypothesize that the larger particles and associated scattering properties were due to the transport of fine dust alongside smoke in addition to contributions from condensation of secondary aerosol, coagulation of smaller particles, and aqueous-phase processing during transport. Alaskan and Siberian boreal forest BB plumes were transported long distances in the FT and characterized by lower absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) values indicative of black carbon (BC) dominance in the radiative budget. Significantly elevated AAE values were only observed for BB events with <1 d transport, which suggests strong production of brown carbon (BrC) in these plumes but limited radiative forcing impacts outside of the immediate region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s -1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s -1 . Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Finally, measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Combustion Characteristics of a Tier II Gasoline Certification Fuel and its Surrogate with Iso-butanol: experiments and detailed numerical modeling

This presentation will describe results of an experimental and numerical study of combustion of a Tier II gasoline certification fuel and its surrogate blended with iso-butanol as a potential biofuel additive. The experiments were carried out under conditions where gas transport originated entirely by fuel evaporation with external convection (both forced and natural) were minimized. The resulting near spherically symmetric droplet flames were amenable to detailed numerical modeling. The droplet initial diameters were in the narrow range of 0.55 mm to 0.62 mm while and burning is performed under standard atmosphere. The combustion characteristics such as evolution of droplet, flame and soot shell diameters for indolene/iso-butanol and surrogate/iso-butanol mixtures are compared. The presence of iso-butanol is experimentally found to reduce the formation of soot as the iso-butanol concentration was increased. Simulations are also reported using a detailed kinetic chemistry comprised of 324 species and 17608 reactions using the CRECK POLIMI mechanism. The detailed numerical model included unsteady gas and liquid transport, soot chemistry and radiative transport. Droplet burn rates were well predicted while flame diameters showed more variability depending on how the flame was defined in the numerical simulation (peak gas temperature and OH concentration). Simulations also show the influence of iso-butanol concentration on flame temperature, greenhouse gas emissions and particulate emissions.

Guo, Songtao↗

An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming

Since the early 2010s, anthropogenic aerosols have started decreasing in East Asia (EA) while have continued to increase in South Asia (SA). Yet the climate impacts of this Asian aerosol dipole (AAD) pattern remain largely unknown. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we demonstrate that the climate response is distinctly different between the SA aerosol increases and EA aerosol decreases. The SA aerosol increases lead to ~2.7 times stronger land summer precipitation change within the forced regions than the EA aerosol decreases. Contrastingly, the SA aerosol increases, within the tropical monsoon regime, produce weak and tropically confined responses, while the EA aerosol decreases yield a pronounced northern hemisphere warming aided by extratropical mean westerly and positive air-sea feedbacks over the western North Pacific. By scaling the observed instantaneous shortwave radiative forcing, we reveal that the recent AAD induces a pronounced northern hemisphere extratropical (beyond 30°N) warming (0.024 ± 0.010 °C decade -1 ), particularly over Europe (0.049 ± 0.009 °C decade -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of the pattern effect of forcings in driving global climate and have important implications for decadal prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Scale Forcing Impact on the Development of Shallow Convective Clouds Revealed From LASSO Large-Eddy Simulations

Real-world large-eddy simulations (LES) are driven by time-varying large-scale forcings (LSF) - e.g., temperature advection, moisture advection, and subsidence - derived from large-scale weather models. This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in LSF on real-world LES in terms of the development of shallow convection at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory for the 11 June 2016 case using LES provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity. The LASSO dataset provides an ensemble of LES for the selected case, which consists of LES runs that were driven by different LSF. The two contrasting LES runs investigated here generate different types of convective clouds, i.e., nonprecipitating shallow clouds and precipitating cumulus congestus, mainly due to the difference of LSF in temperature advection in the free troposphere. The temperature advection modulates the strength of the capping inversion and therefore the buoyancy of the air parcels rising from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The inversion, together with large-scale updrafts, controls the penetration of the ABL thermals into the free troposphere, leading to cumulus congestus in the case of a weaker inversion. In contrast, clouds remain shallow in the case of a strong inversion. Differences between the two simulations are amplified over time, as mixed-phase clouds are formed near the top of the congestus in the weaker inversion case. Furthermore, this high dependency of LES results to LSF stresses the importance of accurate LSF by large-scale models to real-world LES simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonsteady Load Responses to Daytime Atmospheric Turbulence Eddies on the DOE 1.5 MW Wind Turbine at NREL

Field data collected from the NREL/GE 1.5MW wind turbine (WT) and met tower (MetT) at the NREL Wind Technology Center near Boulder, CO June-October 2018 were analyzed to quantify the impacts of turbulence eddies on the load responses measured from sensors on the main shaft, blade and tower. The passage of individual mountain-generated eddies from the met tower to the WT were critically determined by correlating the optimal time shifts in signal between MetT and nacelle anemometers with mean advection time. Loading responses from mountain eddy passage were compared with atmospheric eddies from the north/south, unimpeded by the mountains, and found to be similar. Whereas time variations in torque were highly correlated with time changes in horizontal eddy velocity, the out-of-plane bending moments on the main shaft (directly forcing the main bearing) were uncorrelated with horizontal eddy velocity. This result is consistent with a previous LES study indicating that the main bearing is forced by asymmetrical interactions between the WT rotor and turbulence eddies, while power fluctuations respond primarily to advective eddy velocity. Surprisingly, the nacelle anemometer produced statistics very similar to the MetT.

ENGINEERING,WIND ENERGY↗

Nonsteady Load Responses to Mountain-Generated Turbulence Eddies on the DOE 1.5 MW Wind Turbine at the National Wind Technology Center

Field data collected from the NREL/GE 1.5MW wind turbine and met tower at the NREL Wind Technology Center near Boulder, Colorado from June-October 2018 were analyzed to quantify the impacts of turbulence eddies on the load responses measured from sensors on the main shaft, blade and tower. The passage of individual mountain-generated eddies from the met tower to the wind turbine were critically determined by correlating the optimal time shifts in signal between met tower and nacelle anemometers with mean advection time. Loading responses from mountain eddy passage were compared with atmospheric eddies from the north/south, unimpeded by the mountains, and found to be similar. Whereas time variations in torque were highly correlated with time changes in horizontal eddy velocity, the out-of-plane bending moments on the main shaft (directly forcing the main bearing) were uncorrelated with horizontal eddy velocity. This result is consistent with a previous LES study indicating that the main bearing is forced by asymmetrical interactions between the rotor and turbulence eddies, while power fluctuations respond primarily to advective eddy velocity. Surprisingly, the nacelle anemometer produced statistics very similar to the met tower.

ENGINEERING,WIND ENERGY↗

Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO 2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Increasing concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere influence climate both through CO 2 ’s role as a greenhouse gas and through its impact on plants. Plants respond to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in several ways that can alter surface energy and water fluxes and thus surface climate, including changes in stomatal conductance, water use, and canopy leaf area. These plant physiological responses are already embedded in most Earth system models, and a robust literature demonstrates that they can affect global-scale temperature. However, the physiological contribution to transient warming has yet to be assessed systematically in Earth system models. Here this gap is addressed using carbon cycle simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to isolate the radiative and physiological contributions to the transient climate response (TCR), which is defined as the change in globally averaged near-surface air temperature during the 20-yr window centered on the time of CO 2 doubling relative to preindustrial CO 2 concentrations. In CMIP6 models, the physiological effect contributes 0.12°C ( σ : 0.09°C; range: 0.02°–0.29°C) of warming to the TCR, corresponding to 6.1% of the full TCR ( σ : 3.8%; range: 1.4%–13.9%). Moreover, variation in the physiological contribution to the TCR across models contributes disproportionately more to the intermodel spread of TCR estimates than it does to the mean. The largest contribution of plant physiology to CO 2 -forced warming—and the intermodel spread in warming—occurs over land, especially in forested regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗