Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

Development of the PRSEUS Multi-Bay Pressure Box for a Hybrid Wing Body Vehicle

NASA has created the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project to explore and document the feasibility, benefits, and technical risk of advanced vehicle configurations and enabling technologies that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment. A critical aspect of this pursuit is the development of a lighter, more robust airframe that will enable the introduction of unconventional aircraft configurations that have higher lift-to-drag ratios, reduced drag, and lower community noise. Although such novel configurations like the Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) offer better aerodynamic performance as compared to traditional tube-and-wing aircraft, their blended wing shapes also pose significant new design challenges. Developing an improved structural concept that is capable of meeting the structural weight fraction allocated for these non-circular pressurized cabins is the primary obstacle in implementing large lifting-body designs. To address this challenge, researchers at NASA and The Boeing Company are working together to advance new structural concepts like the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS), which is an integrally stiffened panel design that is stitched together and designed to maintain residual load-carrying capabilities under a variety of damage scenarios. The large-scale multi-bay fuselage test article described in this paper is the final specimen in a building-block test program that was conceived to demonstrate the feasibility of meeting the structural weight goals established for the HWB pressure cabin.

Jegley, Dawn C.↗

Air Pollution Over the Ganges Basin and Northwest Bay of Bengal in the Early Postmonsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office. This reanalysis is based on a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) model radiatively coupled with Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. In October over the period 2002-2009, MERRAero showed that AOT was lower over the east of the Ganges basin than over the northwest of the Ganges basin: this was despite the fact that the east of the Ganges basin should have produced higher anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of higher population density, increased industrial output, and transportation. This is evidence that higher aerosol emissions do not always correspond to higher AOT over the areas where the effects of meteorological factors on AOT dominate those of aerosol emissions. MODIS AOT assimilation was essential for correcting modeled AOT mainly over the northwest of the Ganges basin, where AOT increments were maximal. Over the east of the Ganges basin and northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), AOT increments were low and MODIS AOT assimilation did not contribute significantly to modeled AOT. Our analysis showed that increasing AOT trends over northwest BoB (exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin) were reproduced by GEOS-5, not because of MODIS AOT assimilation butmainly because of the model capability of reproducing meteorological factors contributing to AOT trends. Moreover, vertically integrated aerosol mass flux was sensitive to wind convergence causing aerosol accumulation over northwest BoB.

AOT↗

Coordinated Field Campaigns in Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico

NASA's GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission concept recommended by the U.S. National Research Council (2007) focuses on measurements of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols and aquatic coastal ecology and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit (35,786 km altitude). Two GEO-CAPE-sponsored multi-investigator ship-based field campaigns were conducted to coincide with the NASA Earth Venture Suborbital project DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) field campaigns: (1) Chesapeake Bay in July 2011 and (2) northwestern Gulf of Mexico in September 2013. Goal: to evaluate whether GEO-CAPE coastal mission measurement and instrument requirements are optimized to address science objectives while minimizing ocean color satellite sensor complexity, size and cost - critical mission risk reduction activities. NASA continues to support science studies related to the analysis of data collected as part of these coordinated field campaigns and smaller efforts.

GoMex↗

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallow water inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used. Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as low as 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

coastal marine↗

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallowwater inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used.Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as lowas 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

Geolocations accuracy↗

Initial Evaluation of Acoustic Emission SHM of PRSEUS Multi-bay Box Tests

A series of tests of the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) HWB Multi-Bay Test Article were conducted during the second quarter of 2015 at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in the Combined Loads Test facility (COLTS). This report documents the Acoustic Emission (AE) data collected during those tests along with an initial analysis of the data. A more detailed analysis will be presented in future publications.

Horne, Michael R.↗

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

Hybrid Wing Body Multi-Bay Test Article Analysis and Assembly Final Report

This report summarizes work performed by The Boeing Company, through its Boeing Research & Technology organization located in Huntington Beach, California, under the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project. The report documents work performed to structurally analyze and assemble a large-scale Multi-bay Box (MBB) Test Article capable of withstanding bending and internal pressure loadings representative of a Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft. The work included fabrication of tooling elements for use in the fabrication and assembly of the test article.

Velicki, Alexander↗

The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge: A Natural Laboratory for Federal Agencies and Partners

The Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge encompasses a rich mosaic of habitats and is a fecund and convenient field site for Earth science research, comprised of tidal salt marsh, open ponds, shallow water, mudflat habitat and encompassing a variety of tide, salinity, elevation, slope, and other conditions. Proximity to the NASA Ames Research Center and overlap with the center's UAS (unmanned aircraft systems) test area presents the opportunity to create a unique natural laboratory that can incubate and support a variety of research and benefit the Refuge in monitoring wildlife changes and habitat evolution over time.

Unmanned Airborne Vehicle↗

Food Quality and Phytoplankton Community Composition in San Francisco Bay using Imaging Spectroscopy Data from the California HyspIRI Airborne Campaign

The San Francisco Bay (SFB) is the largest estuary on the west coast of the United States. It is an important transition zone between marine, freshwater, and inland terrestrial watersheds. The SFB is an important region for the cycling of nutrients and pollutants and it supports nurseries of ecologically and commercially important fisheries, including some threatened species. Phytoplankton community structure influences food web dynamics, and the taxonomy of the phytoplankton may be more important in determining primary food quality than environmental factors. As such, estimating food quality from phytoplankton community composition can be a robust tool to understand trophic transfer of energy. Recent work explores phytoplankton food quality in SFB through the use of microscopy and phytoplankton chemotaxonomy to evaluate how changes in phytoplankton composition may have influenced the recent trophic collapse of pelagic fishes in the northern part of the SFB. The objective of this study is to determine if the approach can also be applied to imaging spectroscopy data in order to quantify phytoplankton food quality from space. Imaging spectroscopy data of SFB from the Airborne VisibleInfrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) was collected during the Hyperspectral Infrared (HyspIRI) Airborne Campaign in California (2013 2015) and used in this study. Estimates of ocean chlorophyll and phytoplankton community structure were determined using standard ocean chlorophyll algorithms and the PHYtoplankton Detection with Optics (PHYDOTax) algorithms. These were validated using in situ observations of phytoplankton composition using microscopic cell counts and phytoplankton chemotaxonomy from the US Geological Surveys ship surveys of the SFB. The findings from this study may inform the use of future high spectral resolution satellite sensors with the spatial resolution appropriate for coastal systems (e.g., HyspIRI) to assess food quality from space.

HyspIRI↗

The Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study: An Innovative Strategy for Understanding Chesapeake Bay Pollution Events

Coastal regions have historically represented a significant challenge for air quality investigations because of water-land boundary transition characteristics and a paucity of measurements available over water. Prior studies have identified the formation of high levels of ozone over water bodies, such as the Chesapeake Bay, that can potentially recirculate back over land to significantly impact populated areas. Earth-observing satellites and forecast models face challenges in capturing the coastal transition zone where small-scale meteorological dynamics are complex and large changes in pollutants can occur on very short spatial and temporal scales. An observation strategy is presented to synchronously measure pollutants “over land” and “over water” to provide a more complete picture of chemical gradients across coastal boundaries for both the needs of state and local environmental management and new remote sensing platforms. Intensive vertical profile information from ozone lidar systems and ozonesondes, obtained at two main sites, one over land and the other over water, are complemented by remote sensing and in situ observations of air quality from ground-based, airborne (both personned and unpersonned), and shipborne platforms. These observations, coupled with reliable chemical transport simulations, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), are expected to lead to a more fully characterized and complete land–water interaction observing system that can be used to assess future geostationary air quality instruments, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), and current low-Earth-orbiting satellites, such as the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5-P) with its Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI).

Forecast Models↗

Supporting Aquaculture in the Chesapeake Bay Using Artificial Intelligence to Detect Poor Water Quality with Remote Sensing

Reliable information on water quality is not currently available at the space and time scales that are required for aquaculture and other resource management needs. For example, shellfish growing areas maybe impacted by harmful algal blooms or runoff from land that increases turbidity, lowers salinity, or introduces contaminants. Shellfish resource managers in the Chesapeake Bay are especially concerned with sources of bacteria from land such as failing onsite waste systems, failing wastewater infrastructure, and concentrated animal feeding operations. There is an urgent need for remote sensing of water quality indicators beyond chlorophyll-a and suspended sediments to augment field sampling programs. Artificial Intelligence trained with simultaneous in situ and satellite observations is explored in preparation for future hyperspectral satellite missions, which offer potential to detect additional water quality indicators not previously possible. This first step identifies and develops a method to harmonize disparate, unlinked aquatic datasets to derive information about where water quality is likely degraded.

Stephanie Schollaert Uz↗

Mineral Inputs, Paleoecological Change, and Holocene Carbon Accumulation at a Boreal Peatland in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) is a vast contiguous peatland extending over >370,000 km2 in Canada's boreal-subarctic, and is the traditional land of the Omushkego Cree. It is currently undergoing climatic warming alongside other anthropogenic stressors, and contains a large below-ground carbon pool. Understanding how climate variability and multiple stressors impact peat accumulation in this region is critical to discerning how northern peatlands will respond to future climate and land-use changes. Pollen- and macrofossil-based paleoecological reconstructions, and analyses of aluminum (Al) and titanium (Ti) fluxes in a Holocene-aged peat core (VM375) taken from a bog in the Attawapiskat watershed were conducted to link ecosystem changes with hydroclimate and long-term carbon storage. Peat initiation is dated to 5780 cal yr B.P., coincident with land emergence driven by glacial isostatic adjustment. From 4500 to 4200 cal yr B.P., apparent rate of carbon accumulation increased, and was linked to more rapid rates of peat accretion and increases in minerotrophic indicators in the pollen record. This increase in peat accretion and shift in vegetation composition co-occur with higher rates of mineral influx as shown by Ti and Al concentrations, which may have supplied nutrients. A fen to bog transition takes place ~3300 cal yr B.P., with increases in Sphagnum spores and macrofossils, and a decline in the apparent rate of carbon accumulation relative to the earlier half of the record, where paleoecological proxies indicate treed wetland and fen stages. Since peat inception, the total carbon stock of the 260-cm peat column is 110 kg C m−2. This multi-proxy record shows an association between changing peat types and variability in apparent rates of carbon accumulation, and supports the hypothesis that mineral nutrients either supplied by surface hydrology or by eolian deposition played a role in Holocene peat carbon accumulation in eastern North American boreal peatlands.

Dust↗

In Situ Water Quality Data for the Chesapeake Bay

This paper examines in situ water quality datameasured during2020-2021in the Chesapeake Bay for comparison with optical satellite data. Thiscollection was performed as part of a NASA project aiming to develop new methods for water quality monitoring from satellite remote sensingusing artificial intelligence. Our objective is to use insitu data as ground-truth to provide water quality classifications, or labels,to their overlapping (in time and location)satellite imagery. Having such labeled data, can help us achieve our project’s longer-termgoal:to train artificial intelligencemodelsto recognize features in spectral informationfor monitoringwater qualityfrom satellites. Because routine monitoring by state agencies is conducted at discrete locations, we obtained a flow-through system operated from small boats to measure waterquality parameters along transects for comparison with two-dimensional maps collected from space, with an initial focus on low oxygenevents, due to their large spatial extent and regular occurrence each summer.We also evaluated similar in situ data collected during 1984-2021by the Chesapeake Program.

Nargess Memarsadeghi↗

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗

8.4 M Deep Space Habitat– Medical Bay Concept Design and Human Factors Engineering Analysis

Maintaining crew health throughout long duration deep space missions presents significant new design challenges. Since communication with Earth will be limited and it is not possible to return in the event of a medical emergency it is critical that medical care on a deep space mission be as autonomous as possible. The goal of this project was to design and assess a medical system concept for the Deep Space Habitat Concept Demonstrator derived from the core stage of the Space Launch System. The Medical Bay was designed as a primary location to support the medical care of4 crew members on a1000-daymission. It includes workspace, stowage, and direct access to all necessary medical equipment and supplies. A Human Factors Engineering Analysis was conducted to test ergonomic effectiveness and system requirement compliance. This initial design will continue to be used by the Human Factors Engineering Team and the Advanced Concepts Office at NASA’s Marshall Spaceflight Center for further demonstration, analysis, and design conception for deep space travel.

Mary Claire Mancl↗