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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

OPEN-Augmented Reality GUI for Bioenergy Crop Phenotyping and Precision Agriculture (Donald Danforth Plant Science Center Final Scientific Technical Report)

The project led by the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, in collaboration with Arizona State University, George Washington University, and Saint Louis University, has made significant strides in advancing the phenotypic analysis of bioenergy crops through the development of an innovative AI processing pipeline. This initiative was primarily funded by ARPA-E, with additional cost-sharing provided by the participating institutions. The project successfully utilized a variety of sensors—3D scanners, thermal, RGB, and hyperspectral—to refine algorithms for data-driven trait signature identification and improve the classification and visualization of plant traits. The developed AI processing pipeline is capable of handling the complex, multidimensional data characteristic of dynamic agricultural environments. 1) Contributions to understanding: The research has advanced the field of plant phenomics by showcasing the synergistic use of various sensor data to enhance the precision of trait analysis in bioenergy crops. Through the integration of 3D scanners, thermal, RGB, and hyperspectral sensors, the project has developed robust data-driven trait signature algorithms and visualization techniques. These innovations have facilitated detailed monitoring and management of plant traits, providing vital insights into plant growth dynamics and stress responses. Further, the project has broadened our understanding of how machine learning can be effectively applied in multi-sensor environments to refine trait analysis. By leveraging diverse datasets, the research has not only improved the accuracy of phenotypic assessments but also established a versatile methodological framework that can be extended beyond agriculture to other fields requiring detailed phenotypic analysis. 2) Technical effectiveness and economic feasibility: The AI processing pipeline developed in this project demonstrated significant technical effectiveness, achieving high throughput analysis of extensive phenotypic data and meeting targeted accuracies. This system exemplified the capability of advanced machine learning technologies to efficiently manage and analyze large, complex datasets. Economically, the implementation of the project-developed pipelines may offer substantial cost savings across multiple sectors. It enhances data analysis processes and significantly reduces the need for manual data interpretation, thereby decreasing both the time and resources required. 3) Public benefit: The project has significantly broadened the scope of agricultural methodologies to enhance phenotypic analysis, with potential applications in various sectors beyond agriculture. Additionally, the initiative fostered an enriching educational and collaborative environment, significantly enhancing the technical skills of participants. It also made substantial contributions to the scientific community by providing open-access data sets and tools, encouraging ongoing research and development across various disciplines. Overall, the project not only met its scientific goals but also showcased the extensive utility of integrating advanced machine learning and sensor data analysis technologies. These advancements have proven instrumental in driving forward both theoretical research and practical applications, setting a strong foundation for future explorations and innovations in data-driven science.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Materials Learning Algorithms (MALA): Scalable machine learning for electronic structure calculations in large-scale atomistic simulations

We present the Materials Learning Algorithms (MALA) package, a scalable machine learning framework designed to accelerate density functional theory (DFT) calculations suitable for large-scale atomistic simulations. Using local descriptors of the atomic environment, MALA models efficiently predict key electronic observables, including local density of states, electronic density, density of states, and total energy. The package integrates data sampling, model training and scalable inference into a unified library, while ensuring compatibility with standard DFT and molecular dynamics codes. We demonstrate MALA's capabilities with examples including boron clusters, aluminum across its solid-liquid phase boundary, and predicting the electronic structure of a stacking fault in a large beryllium slab. Scaling analyses reveal MALA's computational efficiency and identify bottlenecks for future optimization. With its ability to model electronic structures at scales far beyond standard DFT, MALA is well suited for modeling complex material systems, making it a versatile tool for advanced materials research.

Density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Jacobian-scaled K-means clustering for physics-informed segmentation of reacting flows

This work introduces Jacobian-scaled K-means (JSK-means) clustering, which is a physicsinformed clustering strategy centered on the K-means framework. The method allows for the injection of underlying physical knowledge into the clustering procedure through a distance function modification: instead of leveraging conventional Euclidean distance vectors, the JSKmeans procedure operates on distance vectors scaled by matrices obtained from dynamical system Jacobians evaluated at the cluster centroids. The goal of this work is to show how the JSKmeans algorithm - without modifying the input dataset - produces clusters that capture regions of dynamical similarity, in that the clusters are redistributed towards high-sensitivity regions in phase space and are described by similarity in the source terms of samples instead of the samples themselves. The algorithm is demonstrated on a complex reacting flow simulation dataset (a channel detonation configuration), where the dynamics in the thermochemical composition space are known through the highly nonlinear and stiff Arrhenius-based chemical source terms. Interpretations of cluster partitions in both physical space and composition space reveal how JSK-means shifts clusters produced by standard K-means towards regions of high chemical sensitivity (e.g., towards regions of peak heat release rate near the detonation reaction zone). Furthermore, the findings presented here illustrate the benefits of utilizing Jacobian-scaled distances in clustering techniques, and the JSK-means method in particular displays promising potential for improving former partition-based modeling strategies in reacting flow (and other multi-physics) applications.

Clustering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photocurrent Nanoscopy of Quantum Hall Bulk

Understanding nanoscale electronic and thermal transport of two-dimensional (2D) electron systems in the quantum Hall regime, particularly in the bulk insulating state, poses considerable challenges. One of the primary difficulties arises from the presence of chiral edge channels, whose transport behavior obscures the investigation of the insulating bulk. Using near-field optical and photocurrent nanoscopy, we probe real-space variations of the optical and thermal dynamics of graphene in the quantum Hall regime without relying on complex sample or electrode geometries. Near the charge-neutrality point, we detect strong optical and photothermal signals from resonant inter-Landau-level (LL) magnetoexciton excitations between the zeroth and ± 1 st LLs, which gradually weaken with increasing doping due to Pauli blocking. Interestingly, at higher doping levels and full-integer LL fillings, photothermal signals reappear across the entire sample over an approximately 10 − μ m scale, indicating unexpectedly long cooling lengths and nonlocal photothermal heating through the insulating bulk. This observation suggests that thermal conductivity persists for the localized states even as electronic transport is suppressed—a clear violation of the Wiedemann-Franz law. Our experiments provide novel insights into nanoscale thermal and electronic transport in incompressible 2D gases, highlighting the roles of magnetoexcitons and chiral edge states in the thermo-optoelectric dynamics of the Dirac quantum Hall state. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A-Cation-Dependent Structure–Optical Property Relationships of Halide Perovskite Heterostructures with Complex Interfaces

Halide perovskite heterostructures offer promising interfacial interactions for energy conversion, yet challenges in synthesizing structurally well-defined systems limit detailed investigations into structure–property relationships. In this article, we report the synthesis of compositionally controlled 3D/3D and 3D/2D halide perovskite heterostructures using evaporation crystallization-polymer pen lithography (EC-PPL) and a single-particle analysis of their properties. By systematically varying A-site cation combinations and crystal dimensions, we show that heterointerfaces induce local lattice distortions that modulate vibrational dynamics and electron-phonon coupling. These interfacial effects result in significantly extended carrier lifetimes compared to compositionally similar pure phases. Raman spectroscopy, temperature-dependent photoluminescence, and power-dependent emission analysis reveal that localized structural modulations at the interface govern exciton-phonon interactions. These effects are magnified in smaller crystals due to increased interfacial contributions. Our findings highlight the critical role of interface-driven lattice control in tuning the optoelectronic properties of halide perovskites and provide design principles for engineering heterostructures in next-generation optoelectronic devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Programmable simulations of molecules and materials with reconfigurable quantum processors

Simulations of quantum chemistry and quantum materials are believed to be among the most important applications of quantum information processors. However, realizing practical quantum advantage for such problems is challenging because of the prohibitive computational cost of programming typical problems into quantum hardware. Here we introduce a simulation framework for strongly correlated quantum systems represented by model spin Hamiltonians that uses reconfigurable qubit architectures to simulate real-time dynamics in a programmable way. Our approach also introduces an algorithm for extracting chemically relevant spectral properties via classical co-processing of quantum measurement results. We develop a digital–analogue simulation toolbox for efficient Hamiltonian time evolution using digital Floquet engineering and hardware-optimized multi-qubit operations to accurately realize complex spin–spin interactions. As an example, we propose an implementation based on Rydberg atom arrays. In addition, we show how detailed spectral information can be extracted from the dynamics through snapshot measurements and single-ancilla control, enabling the evaluation of excitation energies and finite-temperature susceptibilities from a single dataset. To illustrate the approach, we show how to use the method to compute key properties of a polynuclear transition-metal catalyst and two-dimensional magnetic materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Command-and-Control in Advanced In Situ Workflows

Scientific discovery is progressing towards autonomous science with the combination of scientific instruments, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence in complex workflows. This evolution introduces new requirements for managing scientific workflows, including feedback loops, near real-time constraints, and the ability to dynamically control workflow execution. In situ workflows that analyze and visualize data as it is generated are well-suited to satisfy stringent time constraints and their iterative nature offers greater opportunities for command-and-control. However, only a few of the many workflow management systems available have been specifically designed to manage in situ workflows and often lack support for automated feedback loops that allow analysis and visualization components to interact with the main scientific data producer. To address this need, we present in this paper how to add command-and-control capabilities to a workflow management system. We identify the functional design requirements of such a command-and-control system, detail its architecture, interface, and core mechanisms, and illustrate how advanced in situ workflows can leverage command-and-control in three use cases: graceful termination with checkpoint, dynamic and adaptive data reduction, and event-triggered analysis.

Mehta, Kshitij [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000297149981)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum simulation of massive Thirring and Gross--Neveu models for arbitrary number of flavors

The study of fermionic quantum field theories is an important problem for realizing the standard model of particle physics on a quantum computer. As a step towards this goal, we consider the massive Thirring and Gross--Neveu models with arbitrary number of fermion flavors, $N_f$, discretized on a spatial one-dimensional lattice of size $L$ in the Hamiltonian formulation. We compute the gate complexity using the higher-order product formula and using block-encoding/qubitization and quantum singular value transformations in the limit of large $N_f$ and $L$. We also prepare the ground states of both models with excellent fidelity for system sizes up to 20 qubits with $N_f = 1,2,3,4$ using the adaptive-variational quantum imaginary time algorithm. In addition, we also classify the dynamical Lie algebras of these relativistic fermionic models and show that they belong to the same isomorphism class. Our work is a concrete step towards the quantum simulation of real-time dynamics of large $N_f$ fermionic quantum field theories models relevant for chiral symmetry breaking, understanding dimensional transmutation, and exploring the conformal window of field theories on near-term and early fault-tolerant quantum computers.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing VQLS for Fluid Dynamics on a Hybrid Quantum-HPC Stack

Recent advances in quantum linear solvers offer a promising direction for accelerating extreme scientific computations such as fluid dynamics. However, the deep and complex circuits required by many quantum algorithms limit their practical use on current quantum hardware. The Variational Quantum Linear Solver (VQLS) presents a viable alternative for near-term quantum devices (NISQ), and initial efforts have explored its application to select fluid dynamics problems. In this work, we evaluate the use of VQLS for canonical fluid dynamics problems, aiming to identify pathways for generalizing its implementation across a broader class of systems. We analyze the impact of various circuit ansatz and classical optimizers on solution quality and convergence behavior. Furthermore, we assess the algorithm's feasibility within a hybrid quantum–high-performance computing (HPC) framework by porting it to QFw, a state-of-the-art quantum-HPC software stack. 11This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan. This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the US DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725.

Gopalakrishnan Meena, Murali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting doubly excited state lifetimes in helium directly in the time domain with attosecond noncollinear four-wave-mixing spectroscopy

The helium atom, with one nucleus and two electrons, is a prototypical system to study quantum many-body dynamics. Doubly excited states, or quantum states in which both electrons are excited by one photon, showcase electronic-correlation mediated effects. In this paper, the natural lifetimes of the doubly excited 1 P o 2 s n p Rydberg series and the 1 S e 2 p 2 dark state in helium in the 60–65 eV region are measured directly in the time domain with extreme-ultraviolet/near-infrared noncollinear attosecond four-wave-mixing (FWM) spectroscopy. The measured lifetimes agree with lifetimes deduced from spectral linewidths and theoretical predictions, and the roles of specific decay mechanisms are considered. While complex spectral line shapes in the form of Fano resonances are common in absorption spectroscopy of autoionizing states, the background-free and thus homodyned character of noncollinear FWM results exclusively in Lorentzian spectral features in the absence of strong-field effects. The onset of strong-field effects that would affect the extraction of accurate natural lifetimes in helium by FWM is determined to be approximately 0.3 Rabi cycles. This study provides a systematic understanding of the FWM parameters necessary to enable accurate lifetime extractions, which can be utilized in more complex quantum systems in the future. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Rupprecht, Patrick (ORCID:000000026491793X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anisotropic interactions for continuum modeling of protein–membrane systems

In this work, a model for anisotropic interactions between proteins and cellular membranes is proposed for large-scale continuum simulations. The framework of the model is based on dynamic density functional theory, which provides a formalism to describe the lipid densities within the membrane as continuum fields while still maintaining the fidelity of the underlying molecular interactions. Within this framework, we extend recent results to include the anisotropic effects of protein–lipid interactions. As applications, we consider two membrane proteins of biological interest: a RAS–RAF complex tethered to the membrane and a membrane embedded G protein-coupled receptor. A strong qualitative and quantitative agreement is found between the numerical results and the corresponding molecular dynamics simulations. Combining the scope of continuum level simulations with the details from molecular level particle simulations enables research into protein–membrane behaviors at a more biologically relevant scale, which crucially can also be accessed via experiment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Broadband Rotational Spectroscopy in Uniform Supersonic Flows: Chirped Pulse/Uniform Flow for Reaction Dynamics and Low Temperature Kinetics

ConspectusThe study of gas-phase chemical reactions at very low temperatures first became possible with the development and implementation of the CRESU (French acronym for Reaction Kinetics in Uniform Supersonic Flows) technique. CRESU relies on a uniform supersonic flow produced by expansion of a gas through a Laval (convergent-divergent) nozzle to produce a wall-less reactor at temperatures from 10 to 200 K and densities of 1016-1018 cm-3 for the study of low temperature kinetics, with particular application to astrochemistry. In recent years, we have combined uniform flows with revolutionary advances in broadband rotational spectroscopy to yield an instrument that affords near-universal detection for novel applications in photodissociation, reaction dynamics, and kinetics. This combination of uniform supersonic flows with chirped-pulse Fourier-transform microwave spectroscopy (Chirped-Pulse/Uniform Flow, CPUF) permits detection of any species with a modest dipole moment, thermalized to the uniform temperature of the gas flow, with isomer, conformer, and vibrational state specificity. In addition, the use of broadband, high-resolution, and time-dependent (microsecond time scale) micro- and mm-wave spectroscopy makes it an ideal tool for characterizing both transient and stable molecules, as well as studying their spectroscopy and dynamics.In this Account, we review recent advances made using the CPUF technique, including studies of photodissociation, radical-radical reaction dynamics, and low temperature kinetics. These studies highlight both the strength of universal and multiplexed detection and the challenges of coupling it to a high-density collisional environment. Product branching and product evolution as a function of time have been measured for astrochemically relevant systems, relying on the detailed characterization of these flow conditions via experiments and fluid dynamics simulations. In the photodissociation of isoxazole, an unusual heterocyclic molecule with a very low-energy conical intersection, we have identified 7 products in 5 reaction channels and determined the product branching, pointing to both direct and indirect pathways. We have also approached the same system from separated NO and C3H3 reactants to explore a broader range of the potential energy surface, demonstrating the power of multichannel branching measurements for complex radical-radical reactions. We determined the product branching in the C3H2 isomers in the photodissociation of the propargyl radical and identified the importance of a hydrogen atom catalyzed isomerization to the lowest energy cyclic form. This then motivated a study of direct D-H exchange reaction in radicals, in which we demonstrate that it is an important and overlooked pathway for deuterium fractionation in astrochemical environments. Recently, we have shown the measurement of low temperature kinetics inside an extended Laval nozzle, after which a shock-free secondary expansion to low temperature and density affords an ideal environment for detection by rotational spectroscopy. These results highlight the power and potential of the CPUF approach, and future prospects will also be discussed in light of these developments.

Dias, Nureshan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building a new multiphysics workflow in MOOSE: application to tritium migration, trapping and advection in TMAP8

Fusion devices are anticipated to produce and consume several kilograms of tritium per year. This rare fuel resource is both highly mobile and radioactive, making tracking inventories a priority for operation and safety. The fusion safety program at the Idaho National Laboratory has been developing the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), of which the latest version is a MOOSE-based application. TMAP8 is verified against its predecessors and possesses additional multi-dimensional tritium migration modeling capabilities. As we extend its capabilities towards both whole device (in multiple dimensions) and whole plant (with multiple components) simulations, the syntax of inputs must become compact, descriptive, compatible with quality assurance processes, and as error-proof as achievable. The new Physics system developed MOOSE can set up equations and instantiating them on plant components. The system permits the automatic definition of complex discretization with a consistency between object parameters achieved programmatically. The Physics system can currently instantiate the equations for heat conduction and Navier Stokes weakly compressible flow. In MOOSE-terms, it automates the definition of kernels, boundary conditions, and several core and helper materials and fields. As part of this effort, Physics classes were developed for tritium migration, trapping and advection within either a multi-dimensional Navier Stokes fluid dynamics simulation, or a 1D thermal hydraulics piping system. In this presentation, we will showcase the new syntax, its application to several verification and validation cases which were already studied using the classical TMAP8 syntax, and a demonstration of the new coupling capabilities for the migration of tritium into blanket coolant channels and the subsequent advection into the coolant loop.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Customized open source renewable energy models validated through PHIL lab experiments

Energy models for power systems require ongoing updates to reflect advancements in equipment technology and the increasing complexity of power electronic devices. This study utilizes a Power Hardware-in-the-Loop (PHIL) experimental setup to validate custom photovoltaic (PV) inverter models, aiming to enhance and expedite the development of advanced renewable energy models. The research compares the performance of a physical inverter with generic Renewable Energy Source (RES) models recommended by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). As inverter-based renewable energy sources become more prevalent in modern electrical grids, it is crucial that dynamic models accurately represent their real-world behavior. Accurate models improve our understanding of these energy resources and their interactions with the grid. The proposed model enhancements are designed to better reflect real inverter performance, based on insights from PHIL experiments. These models are developed using the open source Modelica language and the OpenIPSL Modelica Library, allowing integration across various simulation tools without re-implementation. The paper concludes with a thorough assessment, comparing the enhanced models with PHIL experiments on a real PV inverter in a controlled laboratory setting. As a result, the study provides the enhanced WECC RES models and validation data as open source resources, facilitating further research and development.

Modelica↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating time in quantum chaotic systems and black holes

We characterize new universal features of the dynamics of chaotic quantum many-body systems, by considering a hypothetical task of "time estimation". Most macroscopic observables in a chaotic system equilibrate to nearly constant late-time values. Intuitively, it should become increasingly difficult to estimate the precise value of time by making measurements on the state. We use a quantity called the Fisher information from quantum metrology to quantify the minimum uncertainty in estimating time. Due to unitarity, the uncertainty in the time estimate does not grow with time if we have access to optimal measurements on the full system. Restricting the measurements to act on a small subsystem or to have low computational complexity leads to results expected from equilibration, where the time uncertainty becomes large at late times. With optimal measurements on a subsystem larger than half of the system, we regain the ability to estimate the time very precisely, even at late times. Hawking's calculation for the reduced density matrix of the black hole radiation in semiclassical gravity contradicts our general predictions for unitary quantum chaotic systems. Hawking's state always has a large uncertainty for attempts to estimate the time using the radiation, whereas our general results imply that the uncertainty should become small after the Page time. This gives a new version of the black hole information loss paradox in terms of the time estimation task. By restricting to simple measurements on the radiation, the time uncertainty becomes large. This indicates from a new perspective that the observations of computationally bounded agents are consistent with the semiclassical effective description of gravity.

Black holes↗