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NASA NTRS1995

Uncertainties for two-dimensional models of solar rotation from helioseismic eigenfrequency splitting

Observed solar p-mode frequency splittings can be used to estimate angular velocity as a function of position in the solar interior. Formal uncertainties of such estimates depend on the method of estimation (e.g., least-squares), the distribution of errors in the observations, and the parameterization imposed on the angular velocity. We obtain lower bounds on the uncertainties that do not depend on the method of estimation; the bounds depend on an assumed parameterization, but the fact that they are lower bounds for the 'true' uncertainty does not. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals for estimates of the angular velocity from 1986 Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data, based on a 3659 element tensor-product cubic-spline parameterization, are everywhere wider than 120 nHz, and exceed 60,000 nHz near the core. When compared with estimates of the solar rotation, these bounds reveal that useful inferences based on pointwise estimates of the angular velocity using 1986 BBSO splitting data are not feasible over most of the Sun's volume. The discouraging size of the uncertainties is due principally to the fact that helioseismic measurements are insensitive to changes in the angular velocity at individual points, so estimates of point values based on splittings are extremely uncertain. Functionals that measure distributed 'smooth' properties are, in general, better constrained than estimates of the rotation at a point. For example, the uncertainties in estimated differences of average rotation between adjacent blocks of about 0.001 solar volumes across the base of the convective zone are much smaller, and one of several estimated differences we compute appears significant at the 95% level.

Genovese, Christopher R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Wave Driven Non-linear Flow Oscillations: The Terrestrial QBO and a Solar Analog

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation observed in the terrestrial atmosphere at low latitudes is driven by wave mean flow interaction as was demonstrated first by Lindzen and Holton (1968), shown in a laboratory experiment by Plumb and McEwan (1978), and modeled by others (e.g., Plumb, Dunkerton). Although influenced by the seasonal cycle of solar forcing, the QBO, in principle, represents a nonlinear flow oscillation that can be maintained by a steady source of upward propagating waves. The wave driven non-linearity is of third or odd order in the flow velocity, which regenerates the fundamental harmonic itself to keep the oscillation going - the fluid dynamical analog of the displacement mechanism in the mechanical clock. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP) for gravity waves (GW), we discuss with a global-scale spectral model numerical experiments that elucidate some properties of the QBO and its possible effects on the climatology of the atmosphere. Depending on the period of the QBO, wave filtering can cause interaction with the seasonal variations to produce pronounced oscillations with beat periods around 10 years. Since the seasonal cycle and its variability influence the period of the QBO, it may also be a potent conduit of solar activity variations to lower altitudes. Analogous to the terrestrial QBO, we propose that a flow oscillation may account for the 22-year periodicity of the solar magnetic cycle, potentially answering Dicke (1978) who asked, "Is there a chronometer hidden deep inside the Sun?" The oscillation would occur below the convection region, where gravity waves can propagate. Employing a simplified, analytic model, Hines' DSP is applied to estimate the flow oscillation. Depending on the adopted horizontal wavelengths of GW's, wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can be made to produce oscillating zonal flows of about 20 m/s that should be large enough to generate a significant oscillation in the magnetic field. For the large length scales of the Sun, the flow cycle period tends to be very long. The period, however, can be made to be 22 years, provided the buoyancy frequency (stability) is sufficiently small, thus placing the proposed flow near the base of the convection zone where a dynamo is now believed to operate.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer - Part 1

The formation of pre Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the "wave pouch" from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors' earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Wang, Zhuo↗

NASA NTRS2011

Investigating the Impact of Surface Heterogeneity on the Convective Boundary Layer Over Urban Areas Through Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation and Remote Sensing

Large-eddy Simulation (LES) was used to study convective boundary layer (CBL) flow through suburban regions with both large and small scale heterogeneities in surface temperature. Constant remotely sensed surface temperatures were applied at the surface boundary at resolutions of 10 m, 90 m, 200 m, and 1 km. Increasing the surface resolution from 1 km to 200 m had the most significant impact on the mean and turbulent flow characteristics as the larger scale heterogeneities became resolved. While previous studies concluded that scales of heterogeneity much smaller than the CBL inversion height have little impact on the CBL characteristics, we found that further increasing the surface resolution (resolving smaller scale heterogeneities) results in an increase in mean surface heat flux, thermal blending height, and potential temperature profile. The results of this study will help to better inform sub-grid parameterization for meso-scale meteorological models. The simulation tool developed through this study (combining LES and high resolution remotely sensed surface conditions) is a significant step towards future studies on the micro-scale meteorology in urban areas.

Dominguez, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗

NASA NTRS2005

Trace Gas/Aerosol Interactions and GMI Modeling Support

Current global aerosol models use different physical and chemical schemes and parameters, different meteorological fields, and often different emission sources. Since the physical and chemical parameterization schemes are often tuned to obtain results that are consistent with observations, it is difficult to assess the true uncertainty due to meteorology alone. Under the framework of the NASA global modeling initiative (GMI), the differences and uncertainties in aerosol simulations (for sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, dust and sea salt) solely due to different meteorological fields are analyzed and quantified. Three meteorological datasets available from the NASA DAO GCM, the GISS-II' GCM, and the NASA finite volume GCM (FVGCM) are used to drive the same aerosol model. The global sulfate and mineral dust burdens with FVGCM fields are 40% and 20% less than those with DAO and GISS fields, respectively due to its heavier rainfall. Meanwhile, the sea salt burden predicted with FVGCM fields is 56% and 43% higher than those with DAO and GISS, respectively, due to its stronger convection especially over the Southern Hemispheric Ocean. Sulfate concentrations at the surface in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and in the middle to upper troposphere differ by more than a factor of 3 between the three meteorological datasets. The agreement between model calculated and observed aerosol concentrations in the industrial regions (e.g., North America and Europe) is quite similar for all three meteorological datasets. Away from the source regions, however, the comparisons with observations differ greatly for DAO, FVGCM and GISS, and the performance of the model using different datasets varies largely depending on sites and species. Global annual average aerosol optical depth at 550 nm is 0.120-0.131 for the three meteorological datasets.

Penner, Joyce E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The co-evolution of these variables and the convective PBL is sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Open-Ocean Sensible Heat Flux and Its Significance for Arctic Boundary Layer Mixing During Early Fall

The increasing ice-free area during late summer has transformed the Arctic to a climate system with more dynamic boundary layer (BL) clouds and seasonal sea ice growth. The open-ocean sensible heat flux, a crucial mechanism of excessive ocean heat loss to the atmosphere during the fall freeze season, is speculated to play an important role in the recently observed cloud cover increase and BL instability. However, lack of observations and understanding of the resilience of the proposed mechanisms, especially in relation to meteorological and interannual variability, has left a poorly constrained BL parameterization scheme in Arctic climate models. In this study, we use multiyear Japanese cruise-ship observations from RV Mirai over the open Arctic Ocean to characterize the surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) during early fall and investigate its contribution to BL turbulence. It is found that mixing by SSHF is favored during episodes of high surface wind speed and is also influenced by the prevailing cloud regime. The deepest BLs and maximum ocean-atmosphere temperature difference are observed during cold air advection (associated with the stratocumulus regime), yet, contrary to previous speculation, the efficiency of sensible heat exchange is low. On the other hand, the SSHF contributes significantly to BL mixing during the uplift (low pressure) followed by the highly stable (stratus) regime. Overall, it can explain 10 of the open ocean BL height variability, whereas cloud-driven (moisture and radiative) mechanisms appear to be the other dominant source of convective turbulence. Nevertheless, there is strong interannual variability in the relationship between the SSHF and the BL height which can be intensified by the changing occurrence of Arctic climate patterns, such as positive surface wind speed anomalies and more frequent conditions of uplift. This study highlights the need for comprehensive BL observations like the RV Mirai for better understanding and predicting the dynamic nature of the Arctic climate.

boundary layer↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurement and modeling of moist processes

The keynote talk summarized five years of work simulating observed mesoscale convective systems with the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Excellent results are obtained when simulating squall line or other convective systems that are strongly forced by fronts or other lifting mechanisms. Less highly forced systems are difficult to model. The next topic in this colloquium was measurement of water vapor and other constituents of the hydrologic cycle. Impressive accuracy was shown measuring water vapor with both the airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system and the the ground-based Raman Lidar. NMC's plans for initializing land water hydrology in mesoscale models was presented before water vapor measurement concepts for GCIP were discussed. The subject of using satellite data to provide mesoscale moisture and wind analyses was next. Recent activities in modeling of moist processes in mesoscale systems was reported on. These modeling activities at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) used a hydrostatic, variable-resolution grid model. Next the spatial resolution effects of moisture budgets was discussed; in particular, the effects of temporal resolution on heat and moisture budgets for cumulus parameterization. The conclusion of this colloquium was on modeling scale interaction processes.

Cotton, William↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate

Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of OH is explained using photochemical reaction rates which show a "magnification" effect of the initial lightning NO perturbation on OH primary production, HO(x) recycling, and OH loss frequencies. This influence on OH may represent a negative feedback, if lightning increases in a warming world..

Murray, Lee T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Cloud Microphysics and Storm Dynamics Interactions - Part 2

Part I of this paper compares two simulations, one using a bulk and the other a detailed bin microphysical scheme, of a long-lasting, continental mesoscale convective system with leading convection and trailing stratiform region. Diagnostic studies and sensitivity tests are carried out in Part II to explain the simulated contrasts in the spatial and temporal variations by the two microphysical schemes and to understand the interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics. It is found that the fixed raindrop size distribution in the bulk scheme artificially enhances rain evaporation rate and produces a stronger near surface cool pool compared with the bin simulation. In the bulk simulation, cool pool circulation dominates the near-surface environmental wind shear in contrast to the near-balance between cool pool and wind shear in the bin simulation. This is the main reason for the contrasting quasi-steady states simulated in Part I. Sensitivity tests also show that large amounts of fast-falling hail produced in the original bulk scheme not only result in a narrow trailing stratiform region but also act to further exacerbate the strong cool pool simulated in the bulk parameterization. An empirical formula for a correction factor, r(q(sub r)) = 0.11q(sub r)(exp -1.27) + 0.98, is developed to correct the overestimation of rain evaporation in the bulk model, where r is the ratio of the rain evaporation rate between the bulk and bin simulations and q(sub r)(g per kilogram) is the rain mixing ratio. This formula offers a practical fix for the simple bulk scheme in rain evaporation parameterization.

Li, Xiaowen↗

NASA NTRS1994

A three-dimensional transport model for the middle atmosphere

In this paper we describe fundamental properties of an 'off-line' three-dimensional transport model, that is, a model which uses prescribed rather than predicted winds. The model is currently used primarily for studying problems of the middle atmosphere because we have not (yet) incorporated a formulation for the convective transport of trace species, a prerequisite for many tropospheric problems. The off-line model is simpler and less expensive than a model which predicts the wind and mass evolution (an 'on-line' model), but it is more complex than the two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged transport models often used in the study of chemistry and transport in the middle atmosphere. It thus serves as a model of intermediate complexity and can fill a useful niche for the study of transport and chemistry. We compare simulations of four tracers, released in the lower stratosphere, in both the on- and off-line models to document the difference resulting from differences in modeling the same problem with this intermediate model. These differences identify the price to be paid in going to a cheaper and simpler calculation. The off-line model transports a tracer in three dimensions. For this reason, it requires fewer approximations than 2-D transport model, which must parameterize the effects of mixing by transient and zonally asymmetric wind features. We compare simulations of the off-line model with simulations of a 2-D model for two problems. First, we compare 2-D and three-dimensional (3-D) models by simulating the emission of an NO(x)-like tracer by a fleet of high-speed aircraft. The off-line model is then used to simulate the transport of C-14 and to contrast its simulation properties to that of the host of 2-D models which participated in an identical simulation in a recent NASA model intercomparison. The off-line model is shown to be somewhat sensitive to the sampling strategy for off-line winds. Simulations with daily averaged winds are in very good qualitative agreement but are less diffusive than when driven with instantaneous winds sampled at half-hour intervals. Simulations with the off-line and 2-D models are quite similar in the middle and upper stratosphere but behave quite differently in the lower stratosphere, where the 3-D model has a substantially more vigorous circulation. The off-line model is quite realistic in its simulation of C-14. While there are still systematic differences between the 3-D calculation and the observations, the differences seem to be substantially reduced when compared with the body of 2-D simulations documented in the above mentioned NASA intercomparison, particularly at 31 deg N.

Rasch, Philip J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Performance of McRAS-AC in the GEOS-5 AGCM: Part 1, Aerosol-Activated Cloud Microphysics, Precipitation, Radiative Effects, and Circulation

A revised version of the Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert and Aerosol-Cloud interaction (McRAS-AC), including, among others, the Barahona and Nenes ice nucleation parameterization, is implemented in the GEOS-5 AGCM. Various fields from a 10-year long integration of the AGCM with McRAS-AC were compared with their counterparts from an integration of the baseline GEOS-5 AGCM, and with satellite data as observations. Generally using McRAS-AC reduced biases in cloud fields and cloud radiative effects are much better over most of the regions of the Earth. Two weaknesses are identified in the McRAS-AC runs, namely, too few cloud particles around 40S-60S, and too high cloud water path during northern hemisphere summer over the Gulf Stream and North Pacific. Sensitivity analyses showed that these biases potentially originated from biases in the aerosol input. The first bias is largely eliminated in a sensitivity test using 50% smaller aerosol particles, while the second bias is much reduced when interactive aerosol chemistry was turned on. The main drawback of McRAS-AC is dearth of low-level marine stratus clouds, probably due to lack of dry-convection, not yet implemented into the cloud scheme. Despite these biases, McRAS-AC does simulate realistic clouds and their optical properties that can improve with better aerosol-input and thereby has the potential to be a valuable tool for climate modeling research because of its aerosol indirect effect simulation capabilities involving prediction of cloud particle number concentration and effective particle size for both convective and stratiform clouds is quite realistic.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Understanding Differences Between Co-Incident CloudSat, Aqua/MODIS and NOAA18 MHS Ice water Path Retrievals Over the Tropical Oceans

Accurate measurement of the physical and radiative properties of clouds and their representation in climate models continues to be a challe nge. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of t unable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ o bservations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties, particularly with respect to particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. Ice Water Path (IWP), or amount of ice present in a cloud column, is an important cl oud property to accurately quantify, because it is an integral measur e of the microphysical properties of clouds and the cloud feedback pr ocesses in the climate system. This paper investigates near co-incident retrievals of IWP over tropical oceans using three diverse measurem ent systems: radar from CloudSat, Vis/IR from Aqua/MODIS, and microwa ve from NOAA-18IMHS. CloudSat 94 GHz radar measurements provide high resolution vertical and along-orbit structure of cloud reflectivity a nd enable IWP (and IWC) retrievals. Overlapping MODIS measurements of cloud optical thickness and phase allow estimates of IWP when cloud tops are identified as being ice. Periodically, NOAA18 becomes co-inci dent in space I time to enable comparison of A-Train measurements to IWP inferred from the 157 and 89 GHz channel radiances. This latter m easurement is effective only for thick convective anvil systems. We s tratify these co-incident data (less than 4 minutes separation) into cirrus only, cirrus overlying liquid water clouds, and precipitating d eep convective clouds. Substantial biases in IWP and ice effective ra dius are found. Systematic differences in these retrievals are consid ered in light of the uncertainties in a priori assumptions ofPSDs, sp ectral sensitivity and algorithm strategies, which have a direct impact on the IWP product.

Pittman, Jasna↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A42F-03: Small-Scale Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Humidity

Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about minus 5 divided by 3, to minus 2.

water vapor↗