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NASA NTRS2001

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1991

Case Studies of Water Vapor and Surface Liquid Water from AVIRIS Data Measured Over Denver, CO and Death Valley, CA

High spatial resolution column atmospheric water vapor amounts and equivalent liquid water thicknesses of surface targets are retrieved from spectral data collected by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). The retrievals are made using a nonlinear least squares curve fitting technique. Two case studies from AVIRIS data acquired over Denver-Platteville area, Colorado and over Death Valley, California are presented. The column water vapor values derived from AVIRIS data over the Denver-Platteville area are compared with those obtained from radiosondes, ground level upward-looking microwave radiometers, and geostationary satellite measurements. The column water vapor image shows spatial variation patterns related to the passage of a weather front system. The column water vapor amounts derived from AVIRIS data over Death Valley decrease with increasing surface elevation. The derived liquid water image clearly shows surface drainage patterns.

Gao, B.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Viscosity Relaxation in Molten HgZnTe

Rotating cup measurements of the viscosity of the pseudo-binary melt, HgZnTe have shown that the isothermal liquid with zinc mole fraction 0.16 requires tens of hours of equilibration time before a steady viscous state can be achieved. Over this relaxation period, the viscosity at 790 C increases by a factor of two, while the viscosity at 810 C increases by 40%. Noting that the Group VI elements tend to polymerize when molten, we suggest that the viscosity of the melt is enhanced by the slow formation of Te atom chains. To explain the build-up of linear Te n-mers, we propose a scheme, which contains formation reactions with second order kinetics that increase the molecular weight, and decomposition reactions with first order kinetics that inactivate the chains. The resulting rate equations can be solved for the time dependence of each molecular weight fraction. Using these molecular weight fractions, we calculate the time dependence of the average molecular weight. Using the standard semi-empirical relation between polymer average molecular weight and viscosity, we then calculate the viscosity relaxation curve. By curve fitting, we find that the data imply that the rate constant for n-mer formation is much smaller than the rate constant for n-mer deactivation, suggesting that Te atoms only weakly polymerize in molten HgZnTe. The steady state toward which the melt relaxes occurs as the rate of formation of an n-mer becomes exactly balanced by the sum of the rate for its deactivation and the rate for its polymerization to form an (n+1)-mer.

Su, Ching-Hua↗

NASA NTRS1999

Fatigue Failure Criteria for Single Crystal Nickel Superalloys

High Cycle Fatigue (HCF) induced failures in aircraft gas-turbine and rocket engine turbopump blades is a pervasive problem. Single crystal turbine blades are being utilized in rocket engine turbopumps and jet engines throughout industry and NASA because of their superior creep, stress rupture, melt resistance and thermomechanical fatigue capabilities over polycrystalline alloys. Single-crystal materials have highly orthotropic properties making the position of the crystal lattice relative to the pan geometry a significant factor in the overall analysis. The failure modes of single crystal turbine blades is complicated to predict due to the material orthotropy and variations in crystal orientations. A fatigue failure criteria based on the maximum shear stress amplitude [delta t max] on the 30 slip systems, is presented for single crystal nickel superalloys (FCC crystal). This criteria reduces the scatter in uniaxial LCF test data, for four different specimen orientations, for PWA 1484 at 1200 F in air, quite well. A power law curve fit of the failure parameter, delta t max, vs. cycles to failure is presented.

Arakere, Nagaraj K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Crystal Growth of ZnSe and Related Ternary Compound Semiconductors by Vapor Transport

The objective of the project is to determine the relative contributions of gravity-driven fluid flows to the compositional distribution, incorporation of impurities and defects, and deviation from stoichiometry observed in the crystals grown by vapor transport as results of buoyance-driven convection and growth interface fluctuations caused by irregular fluid-flows. ZnSe and related ternary compounds, such as ZnSeS and ZnSeTe, were grown by vapor transport technique with real time in-situ non-invasive monitoring techniques. The grown crystals were characterized extensively to correlate the grown crystal properties with the growth conditions. The following are the research progress in the past two years. In-situ monitoring of partial pressure by optical absorption technique and visual observation of the growing crystal were performed during vapor growth of ZnSe. Low-temperature photoluminescence (PL) spectra and glow discharge mass spectroscopy (GDMS) were measured on ZnSe starting materials provided by various vendors and on bulk crystals grown from these starting materials by physical vapor transport (PVT) to study the effects of purification and contamination during crystal growth process. Optical characterization was performed on wafers sliced from the grown crystals of ZnSe, ZnTe and ZnSe(1-x),Te(x), (0<x<0.4). Energy band gaps at room temperature were determined from optical transmission measurements and a best fit curve to the band gap vs. composition, x, data gives a bowing parameter of 1.45. Low-temperature photoluminescence (PL) spectra of ZnSe and ZnTe were dominated by near band edge emissions and no deep donor-acceptor pairs were observed. The PL spectrum exhibited a broad emission for the ZnSe(1-x),Te(x), samples, 0.09<x<0.39. The single broad PL emission spectra and the spectra measured as a function of temperature were interpreted as being associated with the exciton bound to Te clusters because of the high Te content in these samples. To validate numerical codes, in-situ monitoring during the PVT of HgI2 was designed. Optical absorption spectra of the vapor phase over HgI2 were measured for wavelengths between 200 and 600nm at sample temperatures between 349 and 610K. The Beer's Law constants for 15 wavelengths between 200 and 440 nm were determined. From these constants the vapor pressure of HgI2 was established as a function of temperature for the liquid and the solid Beta-phases To characterize the growth conditions during the PVT growth of In-doped ZnSe the optical absorbance of the vapor phase over the In-Se system were measured and were used to obtain the partial pressures of Se2(g) and In2Se(g).

Su, Ching-Hua↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Investigation of Applications for Thermodynamic Work Potential Methods: Working Tables and Charts for Estimation of Thermodynamic Work Potential in Equilibrium Mixtures of Jet-A and Air

The objective of this report is to provide a tool to facilitate the application of thermodynamic work potential methods to aircraft and engine analysis. This starts with a discussion of the theoretical background underlying these methods, which is then used to derive various equations useful for thermodynamic analysis of aircraft engines. The work potential analysis method is implemented in the form of a set of working charts and tables that can be used to graphically evaluate work potential stored in high-enthalpy gas. The range of validity for these tables is 300 to 36,000 R, pressures between between 0.01 atm and 100 atm, and fuel-air ratios from zero to stoichiometric. The derivations and charts assume mixtures of Jet-A and air as the working fluid. The thermodynamic properties presented in these charts were calculated based upon standard thermodynamic curve fits.

Mavris, Dimitri↗

NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic coefficients to an accuracy of 110% . In our problem, we would like to get an optimized neural network architecture and minimum data set. This has been accomplished within 500 training cycles of a neural network. After removing training pairs (outliers), the GA has produced much better results. The neural network constructed is a feed forward neural network with a back propagation learning mechanism. The main goal has been to free the network design process from constraints of human biases, and to discover better forms of neural network architectures. The automation of the network architecture search by genetic algorithms seems to have been the best way to achieve this goal.

Rajkumar, T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Xenon Sputter Yield Measurements for Ion Thruster Materials

In this paper, we describe a technique that was used to measure total and differential sputter yields of materials important to high specific impulse ion thrusters. The heart of the technique is a quartz crystal monitor that is swept at constant radial distance from a small target region where a high current density xenon ion beam is aimed. Differential sputtering yields were generally measured over a full 180 deg arc in a plane that included the beam centerline and the normal vector to the target surface. Sputter yield results are presented for a xenon ion energy range from 0.5 to 10 keV and an angle of incidence range from 0 deg to 70 deg from the target surface normal direction for targets consisting of molybdenum, titanium, solid (Poco) graphite, and flexible graphite (grafoil). Total sputter yields are calculated using a simple integration procedure and comparisons are made to sputter yields obtained from the literature. In general, the agreement between the available data is good. As expected for heavy xenon ions, the differential and total sputter yields are found to be strong functions of angle of incidence. Significant under- and over-cosine behavior is observed at low- and high-ion energies, respectively. In addition, strong differences in differential yield behavior are observed between low-Z targets (C and Ti) and high-Z targets (Mo). Curve fits to the differential sputter yield data are provided. They should prove useful to analysts interested in predicting the erosion profiles of ion thruster components and determining where the erosion products re-deposit.

Williams, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Unbalance Response Prediction for Rotors on Ball Bearings Using Speed and Load Dependent Nonlinear Bearing Stiffness

Rolling-element bearing forces vary nonlinearly with bearing deflection. Thus an accurate rotordynamic analysis requires that bearing forces corresponding to the actual bearing deflection be utilized. For this work bearing forces were calculated by COBRA-AHS, a recently developed rolling-element bearing analysis code. Bearing stiffness was found to be a strong function of bearing deflection, with higher deflection producing markedly higher stiffness. Curves fitted to the bearing data for a range of speeds and loads were supplied to a flexible rotor unbalance response analysis. The rotordynamic analysis showed that vibration response varied nonlinearly with the amount of rotor imbalance. Moreover, the increase in stiffness as critical speeds were approached caused a large increase in rotor and bearing vibration amplitude over part of the speed range compared to the case of constant bearing stiffness. Regions of bistable operation were possible, in which the amplitude at a given speed was much larger during rotor acceleration than during deceleration. A moderate amount of damping will eliminate the bistable region, but this damping is not inherent in ball bearings.

Fleming, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Davila, Carlos G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Statistical Comparison and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads

Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield ultimate strength and high cycle fatigue capability. This paper examines the cumulative distribution function (CDF) percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematics is then used to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile along with a curve fit to this value. Another Excel macro is used to calculate the combination using a Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the traditional techniques, these methods quantify the calculated load value with a Consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Also, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can lower the design loading substantially without losing any of the identified structural reliability.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Synchronized Electronic Shutter System and Method for Thermal Nondestructive Evaluation

The invention is a synchronized electronic shutter system (SESS) and method for same side and through transmission thermal analysis and inspection of a material for finding defects, corrosion, disbond defects, integrity of a weld and determination of paint thickness. The system comprises an infrared detector that acquires background images of the sample. A shutter then covers the detector and lamps rapidly heat the sample above ambient temperature. Shutters cover all lamps at the same time the shutter over the infrared detector is opened. The infrared detector acquires a series of temperature images over time radiated from the sample a s the sample cools down. After collecting a series of temperature images taken by the SESS, a processed image is developed using one of the group comprising time derivative calculation, temperature normalization data reduction routine, thermal diffusivity curve fitting and averaging the series of temperature images.

Joseph N Zalameda↗

NASA NTRS2003

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System: Characteristics and Performance of the Altimeter Receiver

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat spacecraft measures the surface height (altimetry) via the time of flight of its 1064 nm laser pulse. The GLAS laser transmitter produces 6 ns wide pulses with 70 mJ energy at 1064 nm at a 40 Hz rate. The altimeter receiver consists of a telescope, aft optics, a silicon avalanche photodiode, and electronic amplifiers. The transmitted and echo pulse waveforms are digitized at 1 GHz rate. The laser pulse time of flight is determined on the ground from the two digitized pulse waveforms and their positions in the full waveform record (about 5.4 ms ong) by computing the pulse centroids or by curve fitting. The GLAS receiver algorithms in on board software selects the two waveform segments containing the transmitted and the echo pulses and sends them to ground. The probability of echo pulse detection and the accuracy of time of flight measurement depend on the received signal level, the background light within the receiver field of view, the inherent detector and amplifier noise, the quantization of the digitizer, and some times by cloud obscurations. A receiver model has been developed to calculate the probability of detection and accuracy of the altimeter measurements with these noise sources. From prelaunch testing, the minimum detectable echo pulse energy for 90% detection probability was about 0.1 fj/pulse onto the detector. Such a receiver sensitivity allows GLAS to measure the surface height through clouds with optical density less than 2. The echo pulse energy required to achieve 10 cm ranging accuracy was found to be about 3 times higher than the minimum detectable signal level. The smallest single shot range measurement error, which was determined by ranging to a fixed target with strong echo pulses and no background light, was 2 to 3cm. The maximum linear response echo pulse energy was 10 fJ/pulse for the strongest echo signals, assuming a Lambertian scattering snow surface, clear sky atmosphere transmission, and no pulse width spreading due to surface slopes. Results from the initial 38 days of GLAS operation on-orbit with Laser 1, showed the echo pulse energies varied, as expected, over a wide dynamic range due to the variability of atmosphere transmission and Earth surface characteristics. The receiver was able to reliably detect the ground surface echoes and measure time of flight under such dynamic conditions, except when there were dense clouds. When over Antarctica, the echo pulse energies were several times stronger than predicted. This suggests that the 1064 nm backscattering from the snow pack and ice-sheet &ce are not completely Lambertian but is somewhat peaked at opposit.ion. With Laser 1, the peak amplitude of the echo pulses from flat ice sheets under clear sky conditions exceeded the linear response range of the receiver, causing some pulse waveform distortion due to saturation. We have characterized the effects of receiver saturation on the time of flight, pulse width, and pulse energy measurements for flat surface by testing a night spare detector in the lab with simulated echo pulses. A data processing algorithm that minimizes the errors due to saturation for these measurements are described.

Sun, Xiao-Li↗

NASA NTRS2004

Kernel PLS Estimation of Single-trial Event-related Potentials

Nonlinear kernel partial least squaes (KPLS) regressior, is a novel smoothing approach to nonparametric regression curve fitting. We have developed a KPLS approach to the estimation of single-trial event related potentials (ERPs). For improved accuracy of estimation, we also developed a local KPLS method for situations in which there exists prior knowledge about the approximate latency of individual ERP components. To assess the utility of the KPLS approach, we compared non-local KPLS and local KPLS smoothing with other nonparametric signal processing and smoothing methods. In particular, we examined wavelet denoising, smoothing splines, and localized smoothing splines. We applied these methods to the estimation of simulated mixtures of human ERPs and ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) activity using a dipole simulator (BESA). In this scenario we considered ongoing EEG to represent spatially and temporally correlated noise added to the ERPs. This simulation provided a reasonable but simplified model of real-world ERP measurements. For estimation of the simulated single-trial ERPs, local KPLS provided a level of accuracy that was comparable with or better than the other methods. We also applied the local KPLS method to the estimation of human ERPs recorded in an experiment on co,onitive fatigue. For these data, the local KPLS method provided a clear improvement in visualization of single-trial ERPs as well as their averages. The local KPLS method may serve as a new alternative to the estimation of single-trial ERPs and improvement of ERP averages.

Rosipal, Roman↗

NASA NTRS2001

Synchronized Electronic Shutter System (SESS) for Thermal Nondestructive Evaluation

The purpose of this paper is to describe a new method for thermal nondestructive evaluation. This method uses a synchronized electronic shutter system (SESS) to remove the heat lamp's influence on the thermal data during and after flash heating. There are two main concerns when using flash heating. The first concern is during the flash when the photons are reflected back into the camera. This tends to saturate the detectors and potentially introduces unknown and uncorrectable errors when curve fitting the data to a model. To address this, an electronically controlled shutter was placed over the infrared camera lens. Before firing the flash lamps, the shutter is opened to acquire the necessary background data for offset calibration. During flash heating, the shutter is closed to prevent the photons from the high intensity flash from saturating the camera's detectors. The second concern is after the flash heating where the lamps radiate heat after firing. This residual cooling introduces an unwanted transient thermal response into the data. To remove this residual effect, a shutter was placed over the flash lamps to block the infrared heat radiating from the flash head after heating. This helped to remove the transient contribution of the flash. The flash lamp shutters were synchronized electronically with the camera shutter. Results are given comparing the use of the thermal inspection with and without the shutter system.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Sensorimotor integration in human postural control

It is generally accepted that human bipedal upright stance is achieved by feedback mechanisms that generate an appropriate corrective torque based on body-sway motion detected primarily by visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive sensory systems. Because orientation information from the various senses is not always available (eyes closed) or accurate (compliant support surface), the postural control system must somehow adjust to maintain stance in a wide variety of environmental conditions. This is the sensorimotor integration problem that we investigated by evoking anterior-posterior (AP) body sway using pseudorandom rotation of the visual surround and/or support surface (amplitudes 0.5-8 degrees ) in both normal subjects and subjects with severe bilateral vestibular loss (VL). AP rotation of body center-of-mass (COM) was measured in response to six conditions offering different combinations of available sensory information. Stimulus-response data were analyzed using spectral analysis to compute transfer functions and coherence functions over a frequency range from 0.017 to 2.23 Hz. Stimulus-response data were quite linear for any given condition and amplitude. However, overall behavior in normal subjects was nonlinear because gain decreased and phase functions sometimes changed with increasing stimulus amplitude. "Sensory channel reweighting" could account for this nonlinear behavior with subjects showing increasing reliance on vestibular cues as stimulus amplitudes increased. VL subjects could not perform this reweighting, and their stimulus-response behavior remained quite linear. Transfer function curve fits based on a simple feedback control model provided estimates of postural stiffness, damping, and feedback time delay. There were only small changes in these parameters with increasing visual stimulus amplitude. However, stiffness increased as much as 60% with increasing support surface amplitude. To maintain postural stability and avoid resonant behavior, an increase in stiffness should be accompanied by a corresponding increase in damping. Increased damping was achieved primarily by decreasing the apparent time delay of feedback control rather than by changing the damping coefficient (i.e., corrective torque related to body-sway velocity). In normal subjects, stiffness and damping were highly correlated with body mass and moment of inertia, with stiffness always about 1/3 larger than necessary to resist the destabilizing torque due to gravity. The stiffness parameter in some VL subjects was larger compared with normal subjects, suggesting that they may use increased stiffness to help compensate for their loss. Overall results show that the simple act of standing quietly depends on a remarkably complex sensorimotor control system.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1986

The uptake of NO3-, NO2-, and NH4+ by intact wheat (Triticum aestivum) seedlings. I. Induction and kinetics of transport systems

The inducibility and kinetics of the NO3-, NO2-, and NH4+ transporters in roots of wheat seedlings (Triticum aestivum cv Yercora Rojo) were characterized using precise methods approaching constant analysis of the substrate solutions. A microcomputer-controlled automated high performance liquid chromatography system was used to determine the depletion of each N species (initially at 1 millimolar) from complete nutrient solutions. Uptake rate analyses were performed using computerized curve-fitting techniques. More precise estimates were obtained for the time required for the extent of the induction of each transporter. Up to 10 and 6 hours, respectively, were required to achieve apparent full induction of the NO3- and NO2- transporters. Evidence for substrate inducibility of the NH4+ transporters requiring 5 hours is presented. The transport of NO3- was mediated by a dual system (or dual phasic), whereas only single systems were found for transport of NO2- and NH4+. The Km values for NO3-, NO2-, and NH4+ were, respectively, 0.027, 0.054, and 0.05 millimolar. The Km for mechanism II of NO3- transport could not be defined in this study as it exhibited only apparent first order kinetics up to 1 millimolar.

NASA Program CELSS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Aeroshell Design Techniques for Aerocapture Entry Vehicles

A major goal of NASA s In-Space Propulsion Program is to shorten trip times for scientific planetary missions. To meet this challenge arrival speeds will increase, requiring significant braking for orbit insertion, and thus increased deceleration propellant mass that may exceed launch lift capabilities. A technology called aerocapture has been developed to expand the mission potential of exploratory probes destined for planets with suitable atmospheres. Aerocapture inserts a probe into planetary orbit via a single pass through the atmosphere using the probe s aeroshell drag to reduce velocity. The benefit of an aerocapture maneuver is a large reduction in propellant mass that may result in smaller, less costly missions and reduced mission cruise times. The methodology used to design rigid aerocapture aeroshells will be presented with an emphasis on a new systems tool under development. Current methods for fast, efficient evaluations of structural systems for exploratory vehicles to planets and moons within our solar system have been under development within NASA having limited success. Many systems tools that have been attempted applied structural mass estimation techniques based on historical data and curve fitting techniques that are difficult and cumbersome to apply to new vehicle concepts and missions. The resulting vehicle aeroshell mass may be incorrectly estimated or have high margins included to account for uncertainty. This new tool will reduce the guesswork previously found in conceptual aeroshell mass estimations.

Dyke, R. Eric↗