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NASA NTRS1996

APMS: An Integrated Set of Tools for Measuring Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions. APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions . APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS): An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data, The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions. APMS offers to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software; a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality and data interchangeability among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs-of aircrews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as aircrews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but also through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the aircrew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2022

KMT-2021-BLG-0171Lb and KMT-2021-BLG-1689Lb: Two Microlensing Planets in the KMTNet High-Cadence Fields With Followup Observations

Follow-up observations of high-magnification gravitational microlensing events can fully exploit their intrinsic sensitivity to detect extrasolar planets, especially those with small mass ratios. To make followup observations more uniform and efficient, we develop a system, HighMagFinder, to automatically alert possible ongoing high-magnification events based on the real-time data from the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet). We started a new phase of follow-up observations with the help of HighMagFinder in 2021. Here we report the discovery of two planets in high-magnification microlensing events, KMT- 2021-BLG-0171 and KMT-2021-BLG-1689, which were identified by the HighMagFinder. We find that both events suffer the ‘central-resonant’ caustic degeneracy. The planet-host mass-ratio is q ∼4.7 × 10 −5 or q ∼2.2 × 10 −5 for KMT-2021-BLG-0171, and q ∼2.5 × 10 −4 or q ∼1.8 × 10 −4 for KMT-2021-BLG-1689. Together with two other events, four cases that suffer such degeneracy have been discovered in the 2021 season alone, indicating that the de generate solutions may have been missed in some previous studies. We also propose a quantitative factor to weight the probability of each solution from the phase space. The resonant interpretations for the two events are disfavoured under this consideration. This factor can be included in future statistical studies to weight degenerate solutions.

Micro gravitational lensing↗

DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Bulk Compositional Trends in Meteorites: A Guide for Analysis and Interpretation of NEAR XGRS Data from Asteroid 433 EROS

The Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft is to orbit the S-class asteroid 433 Eros for about one year beginning on February 14, 2000. The X-ray/gamma-ray O, Mg, Al, Si, Fe, and K; possibly H, Ca, S, Ti, and Th) of Eros with a spatial resolution ranging from a few km for X-rays to approx. 25% of the asteroid's surface for gamma-rays. The major scientific goals for the NEAR XGRS are to relate the composition of Eros to known classes of meteorites, to assess compositional heterogeneity and to identify geological processes that have occurred on the asteroid. Comparing remote-sensing data from asteroids to laboratory data from meteorites requires that the latter be well determined and understood. How well particular classes of meteorites can be identified as analogues of Eros depends not only on the error of the XGRS measurement, but also on the spread in abundances observed among different members of a given meteorite class. To prepare for the return of XGRS data from Eros, we have compiled a large database of bulk elemental compositions of meteorites, using data from a wide variety of published and unpublished sources. Custom software was developed to easily extract statistical information and make plots of data from different meteorite classes. Here, we use the meteorite compositional database to investigate which abundances and abundance ratios, of those measureable by the NEAR XGRS, are most diagnostic for distinguishing meteorite classes and identifying geological processes that have occurred on the samples' parent asteroids.

Nittler, Larry R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Far-infrared properties of Markarian galaxies with multiple nuclei - Warm dust emission in mergers

An investigation of coadded IRAS data is performed on 187 Markarian galaxies where distinguishing morphological characteristics or multiple optical nuclei are present. The far-IR properties of Markarian galaxies are compared to the IRAS Bright Galaxy Sample, and a much higher median dust temperature is found in the multiple nucleus galaxies, suggesting that more far-IR luminosity results from active star formation. Both optical/UV and far-IR selection techniques are necessary to extract complete samples of AGNs since the far-IR two-color plane can miss up to 50 percent of the galaxies. A systematic increase in the contribution of warm dust emission due to active star formation and AGNs is found in a statistical comparison of merger candidates and other galaxy samples. The assumed nature of precursor galaxies determines the assumed enhancement of far-IR luminosity caused by galaxy collisions. A model is presented which describes the properties of the Markarian galaxies in terms of enhanced OB star formation and different grain size distributions. The results of the investigation are shown to be consistent with a 'subdued' interpretation of merging galaxies with high luminosities.

Mazzarella, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Confirmation of the Stellar Binary Microlensing Event, Macho 97-BLG-28

The high-magnification microlensing event MACHO-97-BLG-28 was previously determined to be a binary system composed of either two M dwarfs or an M dwarf and a brown dwarf. We present a revised light-curve model using additional data from the Mt. Stromlo 74″telescope, model estimates of stellar limb darkening, and fitting of the blend separately for each telescope and passband. We find a lensing system with a larger mass ratio, q=0.28±0.01, and smaller projected separation, s=0.61±0.01, than those presented in the original study. We revise the estimate of the lens–source relative proper motion to μ(rel)=2.8±0.5 mas/yr, which indicates that 16.07 yr after the event maximum the lens and source should have separated by 46±8 mas. We revise the radius of the source star using more recent reddening maps and angular diameter–color relations to R(*)=(10.3±1.9) R(ʘ). K- and J-band adaptive optics images of the field taken at this epoch using the NIRC2 imager on the Keck telescope show that the source and lens are still blended, consistent with our light-curve model. With no statistically significant excess flux detection we constrain the mass, M(L)=0.24 (+0.28, -0.12) M(ʘ), and distance, D(L)=7.0±1.0 kpc, of the lensing system. This supports the interpretation of this event as a stellar binary in the Galactic bulge. This lens mass gives a companion mass of M= 0.07(+0.08,-0.04) M(ʘ), close to the boundary between being a star and a brown dwarf.

W. Blackman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Virtual Fit Assessment: Validation using Historical Spacesuit Fit Data

Virtual fit tests using 3D body scans have provided a cost-effective means to predictively assess spacesuit fit for the current and future astronaut population. However, fit is a complex issue influenced by physical interferences, subjective preference, and many other factors. Fit can substantially differ between the type of hardware, environmental conditions, and tasks being performed. Namely, fit changes across different contexts, such as 3D printed mockup evaluations, pressurized one-g suited test events, neutral buoyancy and other training events, and flight extravehicular activities (EVA). These challenges make it difficult to validate virtual fit frameworks to physical suit sizing. This study proposes a new method of validation using the wealth of historically archived suit fit data. Physically Assessed Fit (PAF) data was assessed from astronauts and test volunteers who wore the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). The data was collected during the past decades at NASA and considered to be most reliable and dependable. Each participant was 3D scanned for body shape and spacesuit-critical dimensions were measured per NASA guidelines. The participants’ size preference for hard upper torso (HUT) assembly was retrieved from their pressurized suit fit check records. Fit assessments were also updated after one-g EVA training, neutral buoyancy training, and EVA flights. Virtually Assessed Fit (VAF) was done by overlaying the CAD model of a HUT with the 3D body scans of the PAF participants. Each body scan was iteratively adjusted for the position inside the HUT to minimize the suit-to-body contact interference while satisfying a set of prescribed requirements. Then the residual contact area, depth, and volume were quantified as VAF metrics. This process was repeated for the different HUT sizes, including medium, large, and extra-large. Statistical modeling is currently in progress and will be presented at the conference. A statistical classifier will be developed to predict a fit probability for different HUT sizes as a function of the corresponding person’s VAF metrics. The HUT size with the highest fit probability will constitute the most likely size selection for the person, and the prediction will be compared against the corresponding PAF data. The participant data will be randomly pre-grouped into either a model development or validation subset. While the model development subset will be used to build the probability model, the validation subset will be used to assess the model accuracy. Also, the locations and magnitudes of suit-body-contacts will be estimated from VAF. This information can identify the critical suit geometry and body shape features that influence suit fit. The variations found in PAF size selections by subjects with similar VAF metrics will allow for investigations into subjective preferences, for example, tight versus loose fit. Overall, this study is expected to provide a structured validation of a virtual suit fit framework, which has not been possible in the past. The outcome can also provide useful insights and potential limitations for interpreting virtual fit tests for future spacesuit designs and population accommodation.

Han Kim↗

NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of images obtained by the Phobos 2 spacecraft

The reflection spectrum and density of the Martian satellite, Phobos, suggests that it may be a captured C-type asteroid and hence may contain relatively unaltered organic material from the early history of the solar system. Since there is evidence from isotopic anomalies that meteorites presumably derived from such asteroids contain preserved interstellar material, it is conceivable that evidence for interstellar matter might also be present on Phobos. The present research concerns interpretation of the chemical composition of Phobos' surface and analysis of images of Phobos taken by the FREGAT camera equipment aboard the Phobos 2 Spacecraft, including both disk-integrated and disk-resolved photometry. Because the surface of Phobos is a regolith, spectral information on the surface composition will be convolved with information on the surface texture. A primary goal was to untangle these effects. Unfortunately, the Phobos 1 Spacecraft lost contact with Earth during its transit to Mars, and Phobos 2 likewise lost contact after two months in orbit around Mars. Thus, the hovering phase of very close approach and the landing of instruments on the surface of Phobos did not take place, so no data on the elemental composition of the surface is available. However, 37 images were obtained of the satellite. The results include the first such observations at near infrared wavelengths, for which disk-integrated results show that the corresponding geometric albedo is quite small and very similar to the value in the blue. The resolved surface photometry was analyzed by developing new methods of radiative transfer in rough surface layers and a procedure referred to as statistical photoclinometry. The results provide root mean square surface slopes on scales from the order of 1 millimeter to 250 meters, albedo fluctuations, and corresponding correlation lengths.

Irvine, W. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗

NASA NTRS2011

Large Amplitude Whistlers in the Magnetosphere Observed with Wind-Waves

We describe the results of a statistical survey of Wind-Waves data motivated by the recent STEREO/Waves discovery of large-amplitude whistlers in the inner magnetosphere. Although Wind was primarily intended to monitor the solar wind, the spacecraft spent 47 h inside 5 R(sub E) and 431 h inside 10 R(sub E) during the 8 years (1994-2002) that it orbited the Earth. Five episodes were found when whistlers had amplitudes comparable to those of Cattell et al. (2008), i.e., electric fields of 100 m V/m or greater. The whistlers usually occurred near the plasmapause. The observations are generally consistent with the whistlers observed by STEREO. In contrast with STEREO, Wind-Waves had a search coil, so magnetic measurements are available, enabling determination of the wave vector without a model. Eleven whistler events with useable magnetic measurements were found. The wave vectors of these are distributed around the magnetic field direction with angles from 4 to 48deg. Approximations to observed electron distribution functions show a Kennel-Petschek instability which, however, does not seem to produce the observed whistlers. One Wind episode was sampled at 120,000 samples/s, and these events showed a signature that is interpreted as trapping of electrons in the electrostatic potential of an oblique whistler. Similar waveforms are found in the STEREO data. In addition to the whistler waves, large amplitude, short duration solitary waves (up to 100 mV/m), presumed to be electron holes, occur in these passes, primarily on plasma sheet field lines mapping to the auroral zone.

Kellogg, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Geography of cretaceous extinctions: Data base development

Data bases built from the source literature are plagued by problems of data quality. Unless the data acquisition is done by experts, working slowly, the data base may contain so much garbage that true signals and patterns cannot be detected. On the other hand, high quality data bases develop so slowly that satisfactory statistical analysis may never be possible due to the small sample sizes. Results of a test are presented of the opposite strategy: rapid data acquisition by non-experts with minimal control on data quality. A published list of 186 species and genera of fossil invertibrates of the latest Cretaceous Age (Maestrichtian) were located through a random search of the paleobiological and geological literature. The geographic location for each faunal list was then transformed electronically to Maestrichtian latitude and longitude and the lists were further digested to identify the genera occurring in each ten-degree, latitude-longitude block. The geographical lists were clustered using the Otsuka similarity coefficient and a standard unweight-pair-group method. The resulting clusters are remarkably consistent geographically, indicating that a strong biogeographic signal is visible despite low-quality data. A further test evaluated the geographic pattern of end-Cretaceaous extinctions. All genera in the data base were compared with Sepkoski's compendium of time ranges of genera to determine which of the reported genera survived the Cretaceous mass extinction. In turn, extinction rates for the ten-degree, latitude-longitude blocks were mapped. The resulting distribution is readily interpretable as a robust pattern of the geography of the mass extinction. The study demonstrates that a low-quality data base, built rapidly, can provide a basis for meaningful analysis of past biotic events.

Raup, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

The objectives of this project are to: define the chemical and physical processes leading to stratospheric ozone change that involve polar stratospheric clouds (PSCS) and the reactions occurring on the surfaces of PSC particles; study the formation processes, and the physical and chemical properties of PSCS, that are relevant to atmospheric chemistry and to the interpretation of field measurements taken during polar stratosphere missions; develop quantitative models describing PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemical processes; assimilate laboratory and field data into these models; and calculate the extent of chemical processing on PSCs and the impact of specific microphysical processes on polar composition and ozone depletion. During the course of the project, a new coupled microphysics/physical-chemistry/ photochemistry model for stratospheric sulfate aerosols and nitric acid and ice PSCs was developed and applied to analyze data collected during NASA's Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition-II (AASE-II) and other missions. In this model, detailed treatments of multicomponent sulfate aerosol physical chemistry, sulfate aerosol microphysics, polar stratospheric cloud microphysics, PSC ice surface chemistry, as well as homogeneous gas-phase chemistry were included for the first time. In recent studies focusing on AASE measurements, the PSC model was used to analyze specific measurements from an aircraft deployment of an aerosol impactor, FSSP, and NO(y) detector. The calculated results are in excellent agreement with observations for particle volumes as well as NO(y) concentrations, thus confirming the importance of supercooled sulfate/nitrate droplets in PSC formation. The same model has been applied to perform a statistical study of PSC properties in the Northern Hemisphere using several hundred high-latitude air parcel trajectories obtained from Goddard. The rates of ozone depletion along trajectories with different meteorological histories are presently being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

Turco, Richard P.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Bedrest: Preliminary Results

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., 22 days or longer) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. It is unknown whether and how spaceflight impacts sensorimotor brain structure and function, and whether such changes may potentially underlie behavioral effects. Long duration head down tilt bed rest has been used repeatedly as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system [1]. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. We are currently testing sensorimotor function, brain structure, and brain function pre and post a 70‐day bed rest period. We will acquire the same measures on NASA crewmembers starting in 2014. Here we present the results of the first eight bed rest subjects. Subjects were assessed at 12 and 7 days before‐, at 7, 30, and ~70 days in‐, and at 8 and 12 days post 70 days of bed rest at the NASA bed rest facility, UTMB, Galveston, TX, USA. At each time point structural MRI scans (i.e., high resolution T1‐weighted imaging and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)) were obtained using a 3T Siemens scanner. Focal changes over time in gray matter density were assessed using the voxel based morphometry 8 (VBM8) toolbox under SPM. Focal changes in white matter microstructural integrity were assessed using tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) as part of the FMRIB software library (FSL). TBSS registers all DTI scans to standard space. It subsequently creates a study specific white matter skeleton of the major white matter tracts. Non‐parametric permutation based t‐tests and ANOVA's were used for voxel‐wise comparison of the skeletons. For both VBM and TBSS, comparison of the two pre bed rest measurements did not show significant differences. VBM analysis revealed decreased gray matter density in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate nucleus from pre to in bed rest. Over the same time period, there was an increase in gray matter density in the cerebellum, occipital, and parietal cortices. The majority of these changes did not recover from during to post bed rest. TBSS analyses will also be presented. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in gray matter changes and potentially in microstructural white matter changes in areas that are important for neuromotor behavior and cognition. These changes did not recover at two weeks post bed rest. These results have significant public health implications, and will also aid in interpretation of our future data obtained pre and post spaceflight. Whether the effects of bed rest wear off at longer times post bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Origins of Long-Term Variability in Martian Upper Atmospheric Densities

We quantify and interpret the long-term variability of dayside Martian upper thermosphere and lower exosphere densities within 180–275 km altitudes. Atmospheric CO2, N2, O, and Ar densities are from NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) observations during the time period of 2015–2020 near solar minimum. These neutral measurements, together with contemporaneous solar irradiance measurements at Mars, enable disentanglement of the orbital effect (due to the annual Sun-Mars distance change with solar longitude) and the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) effect in atmospheric density variations. The relative importance of these two effects, which is obtained using a statistical method of Dominance Analysis, reveals the competition between the indirect effect of solar infrared (via the upward coupling from the middle atmosphere) and the direct effect of solar EUV (due to local heating). Our results show that, unlike the orbital effect which is relatively constant at low altitudes and then decreases with increasing altitude, the solar EUV effect nearly monotonically increases. These two effects are comparable at high altitudes (about 240/270/205 km for CO2/N2/O). This analysis is extended to include long-term exospheric mass density estimates near 400 km from Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey data, with a focus on representative solar cycle phases of solar minimum and maximum. It is found that near 400 km, the orbital effect is always a key driver regardless of the solar cycle phase, while the solar EUV effect plays a minor role during solar minimum and is greatly enhanced and slightly exceeds the orbital effect during solar maximum.

Xiaohua Fang↗