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At least 469 records · Page 26

An Examination of the Recent Stability of Ozonesonde Global Network Data

The recent Assessment of Standard Operating Procedures for OzoneSondes (ASOPOS 2.0; WMO/GAW Report #268) addressed questions of homogeneity and long-term stability in global electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozone sounding network time series. Among its recommendations was adoption of a standard for evaluating data quality in ozonesonde time series. Total column ozone (TCO) derived from the sondes compared to TCO from Aura’s Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is a primary quality indicator. Comparisons of sonde ozone with Aura’s Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to assess the stability of stratospheric ozone. This paper provides a comprehensive examination of global ozonesonde network data stability and accuracy since 2004 in light of the sudden post-2013 TCO “dropoff” of ~3-4% that was reported previously at select stations (Stauffer et al., 2020). Comparisons with Aura OMI TCO averaged across the network of 60 stations are stable within about ±2% over the past 18 years. Sonde TCO has similar stability compared to three other TCO satellite instruments, and the stratospheric ozone measurements average to within ±5% of MLS from 50 to 10 hPa. Thus, sonde data are reliable for trends, but with a caveat applied for a subset of dropoff stations in the tropics and subtropics. The dropoff is associated with only one of two major ECC instrument types. A detailed examination of ECC serial numbers pinpoints the timing of the dropoff. However, we find that overall, ozonesonde data are stable and accurate compared to independent measurements over the past two decades.

Ryan M. Stauffer↗

A refined assessment of nuclear data target accuracy requirements for ALFRED

The interest in target accuracy assessment has been recently renewed within the OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation with an update exercise, thanks to the invaluable initiative of Massimo Salvatores. This work, moving from evaluations on the main core integral parameters of the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED), and the identification of the associated target accuracies needed for improving its design, approaches the retrieval of target accuracy requirements for nuclear data, as the inverse problem of uncertainty quantification. The preliminary results obtained in a previous work are here refined by explicitly taking into account the total contribution due to correlations among variables in the optimization constraint, while its various components are evaluated individually. Moreover, three different sets of cost parameters are considered to introduce a bias in the solution in order to take in due account the relative difficulties in the execution of new differential experiments as needed for achieving the proposed target accuracies. By this, the obtained results are deemed usefully informative, and proposed for the update of a High Priority List which identifies the isotopes-reaction couples of most interest for future refinement experiments, especially when integrated with further analogous information collected on other advanced nuclear systems. Among the cross-sections whose refinement contributes the most to the reduction of the multiplication factor, the fission of Pu{sup 239} was found, which needs to be fixed below 1% in the range of interest for ALFRED (2 keV-4 MeV). Another contribution for the amelioration of the multiplication factor calculation accuracy, is due to the capture channel of Pu{sup 239}, for which the initial high uncertainty (around 15%) can be significantly reduced resorting to easily practicable experiments. The same occurs for the inelastic of Pb{sup 207}, for which the initial uncertainty value of around 50% can be drastically reduced up to target values between 4% and 7%.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Progress of Covariance Evaluation at the China Nuclear Data Center

Covariance evaluations at the China Nuclear Data Center focus on the cross sections of structural materials and actinides in the fast neutron energy range. In addition to the well-known Least-squares approach, a method based on the analysis of the sources of experimental uncertainties is especially introduced to generate a covariance matrix for a particular reaction for which multiple measurements are available. The scheme of the covariance evaluation flow is presented, and an example of n+{sup 90}Zr is given to illuminate the whole procedure. It is proven that the accuracy of measurements can be properly incorporated into the covariance and the long-standing small uncertainty problem can be avoided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a macroscale semi-distributed hydrologic model. VIC development began in the early 1990s and the model has since been used extensively for basin- to global-scale applications that include hydrologic dataset construction, trend analysis of hydrologic fluxes and states, data evaluation and assimilation, forecasting, coupled climate modeling, and climate change impact assessment. Ongoing operational applications of the VIC model include the University of Washington's drought monitoring and forecasting systems and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5 (VIC-5), which includes a major reconfiguration of the legacy VIC source code to support a wider range of modern hydrologic modeling applications. The VIC source code has been moved to a public GitHub repository to encourage participation by the broader user and developer communities. The reconfiguration has separated the core physics of the model from the driver source code, whereby the latter is responsible for memory allocation, preprocessing and post-processing, and input–output (I–O). VIC-5 includes four drivers that use the same core physics modules, but which allow for different methods for accessing this core to enable different model applications. Finally, VIC-5 is distributed with robust test infrastructure, components of which routinely run during development using cloud-hosted continuous integration. The work described here provides an example to the model development community for extending the life of a legacy model that is being used extensively. The development and release of VIC-5 represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for existing and new model applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy resolved electrochemical impedance spectroscopy for electronic structure mapping in organic semiconductors

We introduce an energy resolved electrochemical impedance spectroscopy method to map the electronic density of states (DOS) in organic semiconductor materials. The method consists in measurement of the charge transfer resistance of a semiconductor/electrolyte interface at a frequency where the redox reactions determine the real component of the impedance. The charge transfer resistance value provides direct information about the electronic DOS at the energy given by the electrochemical potential of the electrolyte, which can be adjusted using an external voltage. A simple theory for experimental data evaluation is proposed, along with an explanation of the corresponding experimental conditions. The method allows mapping over unprecedentedly wide energy and DOS ranges. Also, important DOS parameters can be determined directly from the raw experimental data without the lengthy analysis required in other techniques. The potential of the proposed method is illustrated by tracing weak bond defect states induced by ultraviolet treatment above the highest occupied molecular orbital in a prototypical σ-conjugated polymer, poly[methyl(phenyl)silylene]. The results agree well with those of our previous DOS reconstruction by post-transient space-charge-limited-current spectroscopy, which was, however, limited to a narrow energy range. In addition, good agreement of the DOS values measured on two common π-conjugated organic polymer semiconductors, polyphenylene vinylene and poly(3-hexylthiophene), with the rather rare previously published data demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Summary of light-element evaluation work: nuclear data uncertainty quantification

Hale & Paris (T-2) have evaluated the 15 N system to provide nuclear cross section and covariance information for nuclear data uncertainty quantification. This memo gives a brief discussion of the R-matrix method used to generate this nuclear scattering and reaction data in the ENDF-6 format.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

James Webb Space Telescope Navigation Optimization Challenges

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a NASA flagship mission launched on December 25, 2021. The early orbit phase was highlighted by three midcourse correction burns that were performed to maneuver the vehicle into a libration orbit at the second Sun-Earth-Moon (SEM) libration point (L2). During the coast to L2, the vehicle’s primary observatory and sunshield were deployed. Once the tennis-court-sized sunshield was unfurled and tensioned into place, the large area exposed to solar radiation pressure (SRP) dictated that the SRP force model would need to account for the vehicle’s geometry, reflective properties, and orientation relative to the Sun. Following the insertion of JWST into its L2 libration orbit on January 24, 2022, the commissioning phase for the vehicle’s observatory commenced along with the first cycle of routine station-keeping maneuvers. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) provides navigation services for the JWST mission. The FDF serves as the prime or backup navigation operations center for more than 30 active missions spanning a wide array of flight regimes performing orbit determination, maneuver planning, trajectory optimization, and tracking data evaluation. Definitive orbit determination for JWST is performed by the FDF using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the vehicle’s trajectory and reflective properties using Deep Space Network (DSN) TRK-2-34 tracking data and spacecraft attitude telemetry. For the purposes of orbit prediction and station-keeping maneuver targeting, the sensitivity of the SRP force to the vehicle’s orientation requires that predictive attitude information must be incorporated to generate accurate orbit predictions and maneuver plans. Predictive attitude plans are provided to the FDF by the JWST Spacecraft Operations Center (SOC). Short-term (28 day) orbit predictions are propagated using a Short Range Attitude Plan (SRAP) to model the vehicle’s future attitude states for up to a week. SRAP attitude data is highly reliable, as it reflects finalized planned attitude states that the vehicle will be commanded to attain during the ensuing week. A Long Range Attitude Plan (LRAP) can be implemented to model predicted attitude states beyond one week, but these predictions are tentative and subject to revision due to changes in science operations plans. Instead, a conservative approach of applying a Sun-Pointing Neutral (SPN) attitude configuration is utilized for long-term (2 year) orbit predictions where reliable planned attitude data is not available. SPN attitude mode aligns the net SRP force along the JWST-to-Sun vector where it becomes independent of the vehicle’s angle of rotation about this vector, defined as the Sun yaw. Given the dynamic instability of the libration orbit, station-keeping thrust must be applied in either the sunward or anti-sunward direction to balance the resulting orbit. The attitude constraints of the vehicle also impose limits on the available pointing directions for station-keeping thrusters. The thrusters cannot be aligned with the optimal pointing direction for sunward maneuvers, rendering sunward maneuvers to be significantly less fuel efficient than anti-sunward maneuvers. Consequently, station-keeping maneuvers must be targeted to balance the orbit while ensuring that the next maneuver will also be performed in the anti-sunward direction to optimize propellant usage. When targeting a station-keeping maneuver, the attitude and SRP modeling configuration which is applied to the predicted post-maneuver trajectory will dictate the direction of the subsequent station-keeping maneuver, assuming nominal propulsion system performance. If the predicted post-maneuver attitude states result in an SRP model which under-predicts the cumulative SRP impact on the post-maneuver orbit, a targeted anti-sunward maneuver will be larger than necessary and the next maneuver will need to be executed sunward in order to compensate. In contrast, an anti-sunward maneuver which is targeted using an SRP model which over-predicts the cumulative SRP impact will achieve station-keeping while ensuring that the next maneuver will likewise be performed anti-sunward. For this reason, station-keeping maneuvers are targeted while applying the SPN attitude mode, as this mode entails the largest possible SRP area cross-section and therefore a larger modeled cumulative SRP impact. This paper documents the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s FDF support for JWST on-orbit operations and the analysis projects undertaken utilizing the experiences and data accumulated throughout the first full year of routine science operations. The results of these analysis efforts have been used to implement improvements to orbit prediction accuracy and maneuver efficiency which have the potential to prolong the lifespan of JWST to continue to conduct ground-breaking infrared astronomy for decades to come.

Flight Dynamics↗

Data coverage assessment on neural network based digital twins for autonomous control system

We report in a recently developed Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system, neural networks (NNs) are used to develop digital twins for diagnosis (DT-Ds). However, NNs are not usually considered extrapolation models and may result in large errors if they are applied to unseen data outside the training data (uncovered). In this study, we propose a data coverage assessment (DCA) to determine if the NN-based DT-Ds are extrapolated based on their epistemic uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification algorithms and uncertainty thresholds are selected based on the confusion matrix of classifying evaluation data into covered or uncovered data. To demonstrate the adaptability of the proposed framework, we applied it to a basic feedforward neural network and a more advanced recurrent neural network based on a more nonlinear database. Case studies show that the proposed framework can distinguish unseen data for both basic and advanced applications with proper uncertainty quantification algorithms and thresholds.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Aerodynamic testing technique for twin fuselage models at hypersonic speeds

A testing technique for obtaining the static aerodynamic characteristics of twin-fuselage configurations at hypersonic speeds by using a conventional single-balance installation has been evaluated. Data from a triple-fuselage model and a single-fuselage model were summed and then halved to obtain the characteristics for a twin-fuselage model of the same scale. The three related models were evaluated experimentally at Mach 20.3 in helium and Mach 6 in air for an angle-of-attack range from minus 6 deg to 50 deg. The Reynolds numbers, based on model length, were 1.88 million for the Mach 20.3 tests and 2.55 million for the Mach 6 tests.

Ashby, G. C., Jr.↗

Outdoor test for thermal performance evaluation of the Owens-Illinois Sunpack SEC-601 (air) solar collector

The test procedures used and the test results obtained during the performance of an evaluation test program on the Owens-Illinois Sunpak, model SEC-601, air solar collector under natural outdoor weather conditions are presented. All testing activities were performed on a single module. The test was performed and the data evaluated as applicable to outdoor testing of solar collectors.

Source record↗

Status of the n+ 234 U evaluation in the resolved resonance region (*), (**)

In natural uranium, the 234 U isotope represents only 0.0055%, however, this minor isotope can affect highly enriched uranium metal benchmark calculations. In fact, enriched uranium contains more 234 U than natural uranium as the result of the uranium enrichment process. Therefore, the n+ 234 U nuclear data evaluation is one of the milestones of the APPENDIX B within the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP).

AMPX↗

Accurate U 238 ( n , 2 n ) U 237 reaction cross-section measurements from 6.5 to 14.8 MeV

In this study, the cross section for the 238 U(n,2n) 237 U reaction has been measured in the incident neutron energy range from 6.5 to 14.8 MeV in small energy steps using an activation technique. Monoenergetic neutron beams were produced via the 2 H( d,n ) 3 He and 3 H ( d,n ) 4 He reactions. 238 U targets were activated along with Au and Al monitor foils to determine the incident neutron flux. The activity of the reaction products was measured in TUNL's low-background counting facility using high-resolution γ-ray spectroscopy. The results are compared with previous measurements and latest data evaluations. Statistical-model calculations, based on the Hauser-Feshbach formalism, have been carried out using the CoH 3 code and are compared with the experimental results. Finally, the present self-consistent and high-quality data are important for stockpile stewardship and nuclear forensic purposes as well as for the design and operation of fast reactors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

ORIGEN-based Nuclear Fuel Inventory Module for Fuel Cycle Assessment: Final Project Report

The goal of this project, “ORIGEN-based Nuclear Fuel Depletion Module for Fuel Cycle Assessment" is to create a physics-based reactor depletion and decay module for the Cyclus nuclear fuel cycle simulator in order to assess nuclear fuel inventories over a broad space of reactor operating conditions. The overall goal of this approach is to facilitate evaluations of nuclear fuel inventories for a broad space of scenarios, including extended used nuclear fuel storage and cascading impacts on fuel cycle options such as actinide recovery in used nuclear fuel, particularly for multiple recycle scenarios. The advantages of a physics-based approach (compared to a recipe-based approach which has been typically employed for fuel cycle simulators) is in its inherent flexibility; such an approach can more readily accommodate the broad space of potential isotopic vectors that may be encountered under advanced fuel cycle options. In order to develop this flexible reactor analysis capability, we are leveraging the Origen nuclear fuel depletion and decay module from SCALE to produce a standalone “depletion engine” which will serve as the kernel of a Cyclus-based reactor analysis module. The ORIGEN depletion module is a rigorously benchmarked and extensively validated tool for nuclear fuel analysis and thus its incorporation into the Cyclus framework can bring these capabilities to bear on the problem of evaluating long-term impacts of fuel cycle option choices on relevant metrics of interest, including materials inventories and availability (for multiple recycle scenarios), long-term waste management and repository impacts, etc. Developing this Origen-based analysis capability for Cyclus requires the refinement of the Origen analysis sequence to the point where it can reasonably be compiled as a standalone sequence outside of SCALE; i.e., wherein all of the computational aspects of Origen (including reactor cross-section library processing and interpolation, input and output processing, and depletion/decay solvers) can be self-contained into a single executable sequence. Further, to embed this capability into other software environments (such as the Cyclus fuel cycle simulator) requires that Origen’s capabilities be encapsulated into a portable, self-contained library which other codes can then call directly through function calls, thereby directly accessing the solver and data processing capabilities of Origen. Additional components relevant to this work include modernization of the reactor data libraries used by Origen for conducting nuclear fuel depletion calculations. This work has included the development of new fuel assembly lattices not previously available (such as for CANDU heavy-water reactor assemblies) as well as validation of updated lattices for light-water reactors updated to employ modern nuclear data evaluations. The CyBORG reactor analysis module as-developed under this workscope is fully capable of dynamic calculation of depleted fuel compositions from all commercial U.S. reactor assembly types as well as a number of international fuel types, including MOX, VVER, MAGNOX, and PHWR CANDU fuel assemblies. In addition, the Origen-based depletion engine allows for CyBORG to evaluate novel fuel assembly and reactor design types via creation of Origen reactor data libraries via SCALE. The establishment of this new modeling capability affords fuel cycle modelers a substantially improved ability to model dynamically-changing fuel cycle and reactor conditions, including recycled fuel compositions from fuel cycle scenarios involving material recycle into thermal-spectrum systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Tropospheric Lifetimes of Halocarbons and Their Reactions with OH Radicals: an Assessment Based on the Concentration of CO-14

Chemical reaction with hydroxyl radicals formed in the troposphere from ozone photolysis in the presence of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides provides an important removal mechanism for halocarbons containing C-H and C = C double bonds. The isotropic distribution in atmospheric carbon monoxide was used to quantify the tropospheric hydroxyl radical distribution. Here, this methodology is reevaluated in the light of recent chemical kinetic data evaluations and new understandings gained in the life cycles of methane and carbon monoxide. None of these changes has forced a significant revision in the CO-14 approach. However, it is somewhat more clearly apparent how important basic chemical kinetic data are to the accurate establishment of the tropospheric hydroxyl radical distribution.

Derwent, Richard G.↗

Electrophoresis experiment. Experiment MA-014

A continuous free-flow electrophoresis study was conducted during the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project Mission to investigate and evaluate the increase in sample flow rate and sample resolution achievable in space. The electrophoresis equipment was designed for the separation of four mixtures of biological cells with variable sample flow rates, buffer flow rates, and electric field gradients. Separation quality was assessed by measuring the light from a quartz lamp through the electrophoresis channel and onto a photodiode system. The data evaluation indicates that all monitored systems operated correctly during the experiment. The optical system produced a light that was too bright to discern true cell distributions, but final analysis of scientific data by computer processing shows the expected distribution of separated cells.

Hannig, K. H.↗

NCSP supports 240 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) evaluation

A new 240 Pu PFNS evaluation was recently undertaken at LANL as a strategic priority. It truly is an NCSP end-to-end product. It factors in a new differential experiment funded by NCSP, builds on theoretical work coming out of a previous NCSP nuclear data evaluation milestone and was validated with an NCERC experiment that was recently evaluated as an integral benchmark with NCSP funds.

240Pu↗

Comparison of the Nimbus-4 BUV ozone data with the Ames two-dimensional model

Predictions by the Ames two-dimensional model of altitude, latitude and seasonal variations in ozone distribution are compared with the first two years of Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements in a preliminary attempt at model verification. The ozone observations consist of mixing ratios on the 1-, 2-, 5-, and 10-mbar pressure surfaces zonally and time averaged to obtain seasonal means for 1970 and 1971. The model is based on chemical reaction and photolysis rate constants recommended by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation (1979), diurnally averaged for latitudes from 80 deg N to 80 deg S and altitudes from 0 to 60 km with 5 deg horizontal and 2.5 km vertical grid spacings. The large altitude, latitude and seasonal variations observed in the data are found to agree well with model predictions. Examination of the sensitivity of the model predictions to various assumed parameters indicates that improvements in agreement may be obtained by variations of the odd chlorine mixing ratio, odd-nitrogen level and transport parameters.

Borucki, W. J.↗