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An SU(5) × U(1)' SUSY GUT with a “vector-like chiral” fourth family to fit all low energy data, including the muon g – 2

An additional generation of quarks and leptons and their SUSY counterparts, which are vector-like under the Standard Model gauge group but are chiral with respect to the new U(1) 3–4 gauge symmetry, are added to the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We show that this model is a GUT and unifies the three SM gauge couplings and also the additional U(1) 3–4 coupling at a GUT scale of ≈ 5 × 10 16 GeV and explains the experimentally observed deviation of the muon g – 2. We also fit the quark flavor changing processes consistent with the latest experimental data and look at the effect of the new particles on the W boson mass without obviously conflicting with the observed masses of particles, CKM matrix elements, neutrino mixing angles, their mass differences, and the lepton-flavor violating bounds. This model predicts sparticle masses less than 25 TeV, with a gluino mass ≈ 2.3 – 3 TeV consistent with constraints, and one of the neutralinos as the LSP with a mass of ≈ 480 – 580 GeV, which is a potential dark matter candidate. The model is string theory motivated and predicts the VL quarks, leptons, a massive Z' and two Dirac neutrinos at the TeV scale and the branching ratios of μ → eγ, τ → μγ and τ → 3μ with BR(μ → eγ) within reach of future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Astrometry and orbits of Nix, Kerberos, AND Hydra

We present new Hubble Space Telescope observations of three of Pluto's outer moons, Nix, Kerberos, and Hydra. This work revises previously published astrometry of Nix and Hydra from 2002 to 2003. New data from a four-month span during 2007 include observations designed to better measure the positions of Nix and Hydra. A third data set from 2010 also includes data on Nix and Hydra as well as some pre-discovery observations of Kerberos. The data were fitted using numerical point-spread function (PSF) fitting techniques to get accurate positions but also to remove the extended wings of the Pluto and Charon PSFs when working on these faint satellites. The resulting astrometric data were fitted with two-body Keplerian orbits that are useful for short-term predictions of the future positions of these satellites for stellar occultation and for guiding encounter planning for the upcoming New Horizons flyby of the Pluto system. The mutual inclinations of the satellites are all within 0.°2 of the plane of Charon's orbit. The periods for all continue to show that their orbits are near but distinct from integer period ratios relative to Charon. Based on our results, the period ratios are Hydra:Charon = 5.98094 ± 0.00001, Kerberos:Charon = 5.0392 ± 0.0003, and Nix:Charon = 3.89135 ± 0.00001. Based on period ratios alone, there is a trend of increased distance from an integer period ratio with decreasing distance from Charon. Our analysis shows that orbital uncertainties for Nix and Hydra are now low enough to permit useful stellar occultation predictions and for New Horizons encounter planning. In 2015 July, our orbits predict a position error of 60 km for Nix and 38 km for Hydra, well below other limiting errors that affect targeting. The orbit for Kerberos, however, still needs a lot of work as its uncertainty in 2015 is quite large at 22,000 km based on these data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Observational constraints on an embedded cloud model for the soft X-ray diffuse background

The reason for the observed anticorrelation between soft X-ray diffuse background (SXRB) and neutral hydrogen column densities are considered. Using the B and C band data from an all-sky survey of the SXRB, as well as data in the Be band, it is shown that the Jakobsen and Kahn (1986) embedded cloud model, in which several statistical properties of the SXRB in the B and C bands were used to constrain their model parameters, cannot fit the observed band ratios, except in the limit in which virtually all of the emission originates in the near side of the absorbing gas. It was also shown that model parameters corresponding to appreciably mixed emission and absorption, as proposed by Bunner et al. (1969) and Davidsen et al. (1972), do not fit the data. Model parameters corresponding to the absorption models of Bowyer et al. (1968), Bunner et al. (1969), Davidsen et al. (1972), and Yentis et al. (1972), cannot fit the data unless the absorbing material is more strongly clumped than is permitted by 21-cm observations.

Burrows, D. N.↗

Interacting warm dark matter

We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ{sub m}{sup α}ρ{sub e}{sup β} form, where ρ{sub m} and ρ{sub e} are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w{sub m} and w{sub e} of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

3.3 CM JVLA OBSERVATIONS OF TRANSITIONAL DISKS: SEARCHING FOR CENTIMETER PEBBLES

We present sensitive (rms-noises ∼4–25 μ Jy) and high angular resolution (∼1″–2″) 8.9 GHz (3.3 cm) Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array radio continuum observations of 10 presumed transitional disks associated with young low-mass stars. We report the detection of radio continuum emission in 5 out of the 10 objects (RXJ1615, UX Tau A, LkCa15, RXJ1633, and SR 24s). In the case of LkCa15, the centimeter emission is extended, and has a similar morphology to that of the transitional disk observed at millimeter wavelengths with an inner depression. For these five detections, we construct the spectral energy distributions from the centimeter to submillimeter wavelengths, and find that they can be well fitted with a single (RXJ1633 and UX Tau A) or a two-component power law (LkCa15, RXJ1615, and SR 24s). For the cases where a single power law fits the data well, the centimeter emission is likely produced by optically thin dust with large grains (i.e., centimeter-size pebbles) present in the transitional disks. For the cases where a double power law fits the data, the centimeter emission might be produced by the combination of photoevaporation and a free–free jet. We conclude that RXJ1633 and UX Tau A are excellent examples of transitional disks where the structure of the emission from centimeter/millimeter pebbles can be studied. In the other cases, some other physical emitting mechanisms are also important in the centimeter regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

Time-resolved analysis of Fermi gamma-ray bursts with fast- and slow-cooled synchrotron photon models

Time-resolved spectroscopy is performed on eight bright, long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) dominated by single emission pulses that were observed with the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope. Fitting the prompt radiation of GRBs by empirical spectral forms such as the Band function leads to ambiguous conclusions about the physical model for the prompt radiation. Moreover, the Band function is often inadequate to fit the data. The GRB spectrum is therefore modeled with two emission components consisting of optically thin non-thermal synchrotron radiation from relativistic electrons and, when significant, thermal emission from a jet photosphere, which is represented by a blackbody spectrum. To produce an acceptable fit, the addition of a blackbody component is required in five out of the eight cases. We also find that the low-energy spectral index α is consistent with a synchrotron component with α = –0.81 ± 0.1. This value lies between the limiting values of α = –2/3 and α = –3/2 for electrons in the slow- and fast-cooling regimes, respectively, suggesting ongoing acceleration at the emission site. The blackbody component can be more significant when using a physical synchrotron model instead of the Band function, illustrating that the Band function does not serve as a good proxy for a non-thermal synchrotron emission component. The temperature and characteristic emission-region size of the blackbody component are found to, respectively, decrease and increase as power laws with time during the prompt phase. In addition, we find that the blackbody and non-thermal components have separate temporal behaviors as far as their respective flux and spectral evolutions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Averaging cross section data so we can fit it

The 56 Fe cross section we are interested in have a lot of fluctuations. We would like to fit the average of the cross section with cross sections calculated within EMPIRE. EMPIRE is a Hauser-Feshbach theory based nuclear reaction code, requires cross sections to be smoothed using a Lorentzian profile. The plan is to fit EMPIRE to these cross sections in the fast region (say above 500 keV).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Liquidus temperature in the spinel primary phase field: A comparison between optical and crystal fraction methods

Liquidus temperature (TL) was measured for simulated high-level waste borosilicate glasses covering a Hanford composition region, using an optical method and a crystal-fraction extrapolation method with X-ray diffraction data from isothermal heat treatments. The 38 glasses encompassed a one-component-at-a-time variation of a 16-component matrix. The TL values ranged from 1006°C to 1603°C. First-order polynomial models were fitted to data to obtain coefficients in terms of the effect of 1 mass% component addition on the TL: TL-increasing oxides Cr2O3 (264°C), “Others” (minor components, 163°C), oxides of noble metals (137°C), NiO (91°C), Al2O3 and Fe2O3 (~19–21°C); TL-decreasing oxides K2O (-26°C), Na2O (-41°C), and Li2O (-68°C); oxides of little effect MnO, P2O5, ZrO2, F, Bi2O3, SiO2, B2O3, and CaO (9 to -12°C). Also presented are temperatures (T1%) at which glasses contain 1 vol% of spinel as these values are considered relevant to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. The measured and estimated values are compared and contrasted and the effect of TL and T1% on glass formulation is discussed.

crystal fraction↗

Cultural Artifact Detection in Long Wave Infrared Imagery.

Detection of cultural artifacts from airborne remotely sensed data is an important task in the context of on-site inspections. Airborne artifact detection can reduce the size of the search area the ground based inspection team must visit, thereby improving the efficiency of the inspection process. This report details two algorithms for detection of cultural artifacts in aerial long wave infrared imagery. The first algorithm creates an explicit model for cultural artifacts, and finds data that fits the model. The second algorithm creates a model of the background and finds data that does not fit the model. Both algorithms are applied to orthomosaic imagery generated as part of the MSFE13 data collection campaign under the spectral technology evaluation project.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

THE PRISM MULTI-OBJECT SURVEY (PRIMUS). II. DATA REDUCTION AND REDSHIFT FITTING

The PRIsm MUlti-object Survey (PRIMUS) is a spectroscopic galaxy redshift survey to z {approx} 1 completed with a low-dispersion prism and slitmasks allowing for simultaneous observations of {approx}2500 objects over 0.18 deg{sup 2}. The final PRIMUS catalog includes {approx}130,000 robust redshifts over 9.1 deg{sup 2}. In this paper, we summarize the PRIMUS observational strategy and present the data reduction details used to measure redshifts, redshift precision, and survey completeness. The survey motivation, observational techniques, fields, target selection, slitmask design, and observations are presented in Coil et al. Comparisons to existing higher-resolution spectroscopic measurements show a typical precision of {sigma}{sub z}/(1 + z) = 0.005. PRIMUS, both in area and number of redshifts, is the largest faint galaxy redshift survey completed to date and is allowing for precise measurements of the relationship between active galactic nuclei and their hosts, the effects of environment on galaxy evolution, and the build up of galactic systems over the latter half of cosmic history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurements of the Temperature and E-mode Polarization of the CMB from 500 Square Degrees of SPTpol Data

We present measurements of the E-mode polarization angular auto-power spectrum (EE) and temperature-E-mode cross-power spectrum (TE) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data from three seasons of SPTpol observations. We report the power spectra over the spherical harmonic multipole range 50 < l <= 8000 and detect nine acoustic peaks in the EE spectrum with high signal-to-noise ratio. These measurements are the most sensitive to date of the EE and TE power spectra at l > 1050 and l > 1475, respectively. The observations cover 500 deg(2), a fivefold increase in area compared to previous SPTpol analyses, which increases our sensitivity to the photon diffusion damping tail of the CMB power spectra enabling tighter constraints on Lambda CDM model extensions. After masking all sources with unpolarized flux > 50 mJy, we place a 95% confidence upper limit on residual polarized point-source power of D-l= l(l + 1)C-l/2 pi < 0.107 mu K-2 at l = 3000, suggesting that the EE damping tail dominates foregrounds to at least l = 4050 with modest source masking. We find that the SPTpol data set is in mild tension with the Lambda CDM model (2.1 sigma), and different data splits prefer parameter values that differ at the similar to 1 sigma level. When fitting SPTpol data at l < 1000, we find cosmological parameter constraints consistent with those for Planck temperature. Including SPTpol data at l > 1000 results in a preference for a higher value of the expansion rate (H-0 = 71.3 +/- 2.1 km s(-1) Mpc(-1)) and a lower value for present-day density fluctuations (sigma(8) = 0.77 +/- 0.02).

Henning, J. W.↗

f-Orbital Mixing in the Octahedral f 2 Compounds UX 6 2– [X = F, Br, Cl, I] and PrCl 6 3–

Understanding how interactions between the f orbitals and ligand orbitals in lanthanide and actinide systems affect their physical properties is the central issue in f-element chemistry. A wide variety of approaches including both theoretical and experimental tools have been used to study these relationships. Among the most widely used tools has been crystal field theory (CFT), which bridges theory and experiment in that it is a model based largely on atomic theory that is parametrized using experimental data. Crystal field theory is quite accurate for the lanthanides, due in part to the highly contracted nature of the 4f orbitals. For actinides, crystal field theory is less accurate, potentially due to the treatment of orbital mixing. In CFT, orbital mixing is handled implicitly by allowing the electron repulsion parameters (Slater F k parameters) and the spin–orbit coupling constant to vary. As a result, orbital mixing in CFT is isotropic in that the F k parameters and the spin–orbit coupling constant affect all f orbitals equally. This approximation works well for the lanthanides due to the limited degree of orbital mixing in these complexes. In actinide complexes, the 5f orbitals have greater overlap with the ligand orbitals, and this approximation is less accurate than in the lanthanides. In this work, we report a modification of CFT that includes the effect of orbital mixing on electron repulsion and spin–orbit coupling for each f orbital. The model is applied to the tetravalent uranium hexahalide dianions and PrCl 6 3– for which the energies of many low-lying excited states are known. The new model generally fits the data as well the traditional CFT although with fewer parameters. However, the new model does not fit the data better than the more complex CFT models of Faucher and co-workers. The results of the model show in detail how changes in overlap and orbital energies influence the energies of the bonding and antibonding orbitals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

New Features of the NEQAIR Radiation Code

The longest-lived code for predicting shock layer radiation, NEQAIR, is now in its 5th decade of service. Substantial changes to the code have been made over the previous decade, the most recent report of which was at the 5th Workshop on Radiation in High Temperature Gases in 2014, for the version referred to as NEQAIR14. This paper will review some of the improvements made to the NEQAIR code since then, which is now at v15.2. Some of these features are discussed briefly below. NEQAIR15 and subsequent versions have enabled parallel evaluation of multiple lines of sight. This is accomplished by utilizing the HDF5 file format and placing multiple lines into a single file, LOS.h5, which is used for both input and output. This approach enables straightforward parallel execution both over the number of lines of sight and the number of points per line. For large problems, runtime reduces linearly with the number of nodes deployed since each line is processed independently by a subset of MPI ranks. Three applications of the multi-line solver are discussed. The first has to do with performing loosely coupled radiation-flowfield solutions. In this case the computed absorption and emission coefficients are used to evaluate the total energy absorbed or emitted at each point, allowing evaluation of the volumetric source term in the flowfield. The second computation is for obtaining heat flux from nonuniform flows, which require integration over spherical co-ordinates. These are of particular interest for evaluating radiation on the vehicle backshell. This 3D option improves the angular integration scheme and allows adaptive line selection that together reduce the number of lines required by about an order of magnitude. The final application is for remote observation, which is essentially the 3D integration problem over a small solid angle. For all three of these computations, data can be stored in the HDF5 file which allows a NEQAIR run to be restarted when it times out, or to add atmospheric absorption or instrument scan functions. An additional level of parallelism is enabled in NEQAIR15.2 using GPU routines. The GPU parallelism has realized up to 8x speed-up when running on a single core but diminishes as CPU parallelism is increased. For running multi-line simulations, it may be easier to reserve a large number of CPU nodes than to obtain the number of GPU nodes required for similar performance. A GUI, known as NEQTPY, allows for reading and creating input files, running NEQAIR, and displaying results. A significant feature of NEQTPY is the ability to perform spectral fits to data. The fits can operate on a single line spectrum (radiance vs. wavelength) or a 3D input file with multiple columns of data. Other new features include improved constants, additional species, more detailed non-Boltzmann modelling, advanced user controls, the ability to read and calculate spectra from HITRAN datafiles, photodissociation and photoionization cross-sections. A “fast” automatic grid option may reduce the size and time of spectral calculations while still maintaining good accuracy for total heat flux.

Brett A Cruden↗

SU-F-J-12: Dosimetrical Characteristics of a 2.5 MV Megavoltage Photon Beam

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of modeling scatter factor (SF) and primary off-axis ratio (POAR) for 2.5 MV megavoltage photon beams using an empirical model, which can be used as a dose calculation model for low energy EPID imaging. Methods: Scatter photon parameters were calculated for 2.5 MV photon beam from a Varian TrueBeam by fitting the product of depth dose, PDD, and the phantom scatter factor, Sp, for a range of square field sizes between 2 and 40 cm and depths between 0 and 30 cm. The model is then applied to off-axis profiles measured for a slit field (3cm ×35 cm) for 5 depths: 0.6, 5, 10, and 20, 30 cm. Primary off-axis ratio (POAR) values were determined based on the fitting to data using the empirical model. Results: The fitting to PDD*Sp has a maximum error of 14%, mostly near surface, where backscattering of photons dominate and has a standard deviation of 4.7%. The attenuation coefficient and beam-hardening coefficient of the beam is determined to be 0.095 1/cm and 0.0038 1/cm, respectively. POAR for 2.5 MV has a peak in the center, corresponding to a beam without sufficient material to flatten the beam. Conclusion: This work illustrates a deficiency of the current empirical model to fit SF for a 2.5 MV photon beams. Most of the errors are near the surface region and an improved model that incorporate better modeling of backscattering can be developed to improve the model accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-G-206-06: Analytic Dose Function for CT Scans in Infinite Cylinders as a Function of Scan Length and Cylinder Radius

Purpose: The radiation dose absorbed at a particular radius ρ within the central plane of a long cylinder following a CT scan is a function of the length of the scan L and the cylinder radius R along with kVp and cylinder composition. An analytic function was created that that not only expresses these dependencies but is integrable in closed form over the area of the central plane. This feature facilitates explicit calculation of the planar average dose. The “approach to equilibrium” h(L) discussed in the TG111 report is seamlessly included in this function. Methods: For a cylindrically symmetric radiation field, Monte Carlo calculations were performed to compute the dose distribution to long polyethylene cylinders for scans of varying L for cylinders ranging in radius from 5 to 20 cm. The function was developed from the resultant Monte Carlo data. In addition, the function was successfully fit to data taken from measurements on the 30 cm diameter ICRU/TG200 phantom using a real-time dosimeter. Results: Symmetry and continuity dictate a local extremum at the center which is a minimum for the larger sizes. There are competing effects as the beam penetrates the cylinder from the outside: attenuation, resulting in a decrease; scatter, abruptly increasing at the circumference. This competition may result in an absolute maximum between the center and outer edge leading to a “gull wing” shape for the radial dependence. For the smallest cylinders, scatter may dominate to the extent that there is an absolute maximum at the center. Conclusion: An integrable, analytic function has been developed that provides the radial dependency of dose for the central plane of a scan of length L for cylinders of varying diameter. Equivalently, we have developed h(L,R,ρ).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Catalysis Science Initiative: Catalyst Design by Discovery Informatics

Catalysts selectively enhance the rates of chemical reactions toward desired products. Such reactions provide great benefit to society in major commercial sectors such as energy production, protecting the environment, and polymer products and thereby contribute heavily to the country’s gross national product. Our premise is that the level of fundamental understanding of catalytic events at the atomic and molecular scale has reached the point that more predictive methods can be developed to shorten the cycle time to new processes. The field of catalysis can be divided into two regimes: heterogeneous and homogeneous. For the heterogeneous catalysis regime, we have used the water-gas shift (WGS) reaction (CO + H2O + CO2 + H2O) over supported metals as a test bed. Detailed analysis and strong coupling of theory with experiment have led to the following conclusions: • The sequence of elementary steps goes through a COOH intermediate • The CO binding energy is a strong function of coverage of CO adsorbed on the surface in many systems • In the case of Au catalysts, the CO adsorption is generally too weak on surface with close atomic packing, but the enhanced binding at corner atoms (which are missing bonding partners) of cubo-octahedral nanoparticles increases the energy to a near optimal value and produces very active catalysts. • Reaction on the metal alone cannot account for the experimental results. The reaction is dual functional with water activation occurring at the metal-support interface. It is clear from our work that the theory component is essential, not only for prediction of new systems, but also for reconciling data and testing hypotheses regarding potential descriptors. Particularly important is the finding that the interface between nano-sized metal particles and the oxides that are used to support them represent a new state of matter in the sense that the interfacial bonding perturbs the chemical state of both metals atoms and the support atoms in the interfacial region. Some of the first theoretical descriptions of this important chemistry and potential new source of control of catalyst properties are be in preparation for submission. On the homogeneous catalysis side, we have used single site olefin polymerization as the testbed. This system is important because changes in a single ligand bonded to the catalytically active metal site can alter the rates of individual steps in the polymerization sequence and thereby change the properties of the resulting polymer, potentially improving its value in a hundred million pound per year industry. We have made a major advance in understanding such systems by developing a population balance kinetic model that allows us to predict the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the product. That, in turn, allows use of MWD data to fit kinetic parameters. By combining monomer loss data, MWD, measurement of the number of working active sites, and polymer end group analysis, we have a rich data set that is highly discriminating of kinetic mechanism. Thus, we have a robust tool for producing high quality, detailed kinetic parameters, which we have used to refine mechanisms presented in the literature and discover relationships between steric and electronic properties of group IV catalysts and individual rate constants in a number of systems. Our recent work on six-coordinate Zr, Ti, and Hf amine bis(phenolate) systems, we have shown that: • The sterics (bulkiness) of the ligands specifically affect the chain termination reaction • The electron density on the metal controls misinsertion (flipped orientation) of the olefin into the growing polymer • Steric effects related to the size of the ortho ligand on the catalyst have been shown to strongly affect its the degree of dormancy, i.e. tendency to stop reacting • Changes in the size of the amine pendent group on the catalyst can have such a strong effect on chain termination as to change the catalyst from one that produces only oligomers to one that incorporates oligomers in polymer chains to introduce chain branching. These effects control the length of molecular chains, the number of errors in the regularity of the chains, and the variation of chain lengths in the final product distribution. These characteristics, in turn, determine the properties of the resulting polymer material. Predictive modeling of polymerization process cannot be done without the quantitative rate constant determination that our unique and comprehensive approach has produced. This tool, combined with insights on how catalyst chemistry affects the rate constants, is an important step toward establishing the quantitative relationships between catalyst chemistry and polymer properties that will allow more efficient searches for new catalysts and speed the discovery process. Thus, in both the heterogeneous and homogeneous catalysis areas, this work has brought important new understanding to the field. The technical effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated by its success. For heterogeneous catalysis, experimental work alone showed the important of the metal-support interface, but the integration with theory has allowed deeper understanding of the fundamental source of the effects and shown the path for how to use this understanding for discovery. In the case of homogeneous catalysis, methodology for determination of which reactions are needed to account for the data and the extraction of quantitative values for rate constants for those reactions allows accurate modeling of reaction behavior. This allowed correlation of trends in catalyst properties with alterations of specific rates, thus contributing to a data base that will guide catalyst discovery. While not yet realized, the economic benefits of this approach will come in significantly shortened cycle times for discovery and ability to fill product demand at lower price.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Characterizing Baselines and Change in Gas Hydrate Systems using EM Methods

The objective of this project was to advance our understanding of gas hydrate systems in nature by characterizing their electrical properties in the field and in the laboratory. In the laboratory measurements, methane hydrate was synthesized from pure water ice and flash frozen seawater, with varying amounts of sand or silt added. Electrical conductivity was determined by impedance spectroscopy, using equivalent circuit modeling to separate the effects of electrodes and to gain insight into conduction mechanisms. Silt and sand increase the conductivity of pure hydrate, inferred to be contaminant NaCl contributing to conduction in hydrate, to a peak conductivity in agreement with peak resistivities observed in well logs through massive hydrate (3,000--10,000 Ωm). The addition of silt and sand lowers the conductivity of hydrate synthesized from seawater, by an amount consistent with Archie's Law. All samples were characterized using cryogenic scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy, which shows good connectivity of salt and brine phases. Electrical conductivity measurements of pure hydrate and hydrate mixed with silt during pressure-induced dissociation supports previous conclusions that sediment increases dissociation rate. In order to characterize gas hydrate systems in the field, we collected 360 line kilometers of controlled-source electromagnetic data on Walker Ridge 313, Orca Basin (WR100), Mad Dog (GC781), and Green Canyon 955 in the Gulf of Mexico, all areas with known or seismically inferred gas hydrate deposits and which have be drilled or targeted for future drilling. We deep-towed an EM transmitter that generates an alternating electric field which propagates through the seafloor geology. Data were recorded on 6 receivers towed behind the transmitter at distances between 550 and 1550 m. In the presence of conductive geology, the electric fields will be attenuated, and conversely, in resistive geology the fields will be preserved. Our data were inverted using a 2D inversion method that first optimizes the model-data misfit, then finds the smoothest model fitting the data. This ensures that resistivity structures present in the final model are likely necessary. At each of the proposed drilling sites we found increased resistivity, interpreted as increased hydrate concentrations. However, not only were the primary drilling sites not always more resistive than the alternate sites, at WR313 the strongest resistors were not at the locations targeted for drilling.

03 NATURAL GAS↗