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At least 469 records · Page 26

Phase curves of small bodies from the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog

Extensive photometric surveys continue to produce enormous stores of data on small bodies. These data are typically sparsely obtained at arbitrary (or unknown) rotational phases. Therefore, new methods for processing such data need to be developed to make the most of these vast catalogs. We aim to produce a method of recreating the phase curves of small bodies by considering the uncertainties introduced by the nominal errors in the magnitudes and the effect introduced by rotational variations. Here, we use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog data as a benchmark to construct phase curves of all small bodies in u', g', r', i', and z' filters. From the phase curves, we obtain the absolute magnitudes and we use them to set up the absolute colors, which are the colors of the asteroids that are not affected by changes in the phase angle. We selected objects with ≥3 observations taken in at least one filter and spanning over a minimum of 5 degrees in the phase angle. We developed a method that combines Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference to estimate the absolute magnitudes using the HG 12 * photometric system. We obtained almost 15 000 phase curves, with about 12 000 of these including all five filters. The absolute magnitudes and absolute colors are compatible with previously published data that support our method. The method we developed is fully automatic and well suited for a run based on large amounts of data. Moreover, it includes the nominal uncertainties in the magnitudes and the whole distribution of possible rotational states of the objects producing what are possibly less precise values, that is, larger uncertainties, but more accurate, namely, closer to the actual value. To our knowledge, this work is the first to include the effect of rotational variations in such a manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing Complexity of Containerized Cargo X-ray Images

X-ray imaging can be used to inspect cargos imported into the United States. In order to better understand the performance of X-ray inspection systems, the X-ray characteristics (density, complexity) of cargo need to be quantified. In this project, an image complexity measure called integrated power spectral density (IPSD) was studied using both DNDO engineered cargos and stream-of-commerce (SOC) cargos. A joint distribution of cargo density and complexity was obtained. A support vector machine was used to classify the SOC cargos into four categories to estimate the relative fractions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. 7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. 8) Considering changes in DPV’s value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. 9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Source record↗

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Source record↗

Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope observations of H2 toward the planetary nebula NGC 1535

We have observed the far-ultraviolet spectrum (912-1860 A) of the bright high-excitation planetary nebula NGC 1535 with approximately 3 A resolution using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) aboard the Astro-1 space shuttle pmission in 1990 December. We see strong continuum emission down to the Lyman limit and strong P Cygni profiles from high-excitation lines such as C IV wavelength 1549, N V wavelength 1240, O V wavelength 1371, and O VI wavelength 1035. Below 1150 A strong absorption bands of H2 are seen, which were unanticipated by us because of the low reddening and high galactic latitude of the object and the absence of detected H2 emission in the infrared. We construct model H2 spectra and convolve them to the HUT resolution for comparison with the NGC 1535 data. We find good agreement with a population distribution characterized by a single temperature (T = 300 K) or a two-temperature model (T = 144/500 K), and determine limits on the H2 column density. While both inter-stellar and circumstellar origins for the observed H2 absorption are plausible, we ascribe the material to the planetary nebula in order to estimate the conditions of excitation and place upper limits on the mass of both H2 and H1 in this system. Because the UV transitions are ground-state connected, we determine a stringent upper limit of 0.03 d(sup 2)(sub 1.6) solar mass on the mass of H2, where d(sub 1.6) is the distance relative to an assumed distance of 1.6 kpc. This value is less model-dependent than IR estimates. Along with the central star and nebular masses, these estimates allow us to limit the main-sequence mass of the progenitor star to less than 1.8 solar mass. This upper limit is consistent with a relatively low-mass extended thick disk or Population II progenitor, as expected for an object approximately 1 kpc off the galactic plane.

Bowers, Charles W.↗

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗

AEGIS: Autonomous Entity Global Intelligence System for Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a global intelligence system that synthesizes aerial vehicles’ real-time physical data, planned actions, and historical behavior into engineered data frames representing the collective state of the airspace and suitable for efficient machine learning consumption. These data frames are then learnt by a deep neural net to build a prediction model that estimates the expected evolution path of the current state, thereby identifying potential future conflicts. This approach lends itself to an automated early warning system that the aerial vehicles can implement onboard with a suitable edge computing module more efficiently and effectively than non-AI methods, and eventually take preventive or corrective measures towards self/collaborative resolution of the issues. Contrary to a centralized early warning system where all vehicles’ task-space eventually converges to a global optimum state, the presented distributed global intelligence system brings in a balance between local utility functions of each vehicle and the global operating framework. This contributes to effectively handle the potential massive scaling in urban air mobility in the near future.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Validating Performance Models for Hybrid Power Plant Control Assessment

The need for simple, but accurate performance models of wind turbine generators (WTGs), photovoltaic (PV) plants, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) for various hybrid power plant (HPP) studies motivates the present work. Particularly, the development and verification stage of HPP controls requires reduced-order models to minimize the complexity and computation effort of simulation platforms. In this paper, such models are proposed, and the most essential parts of the models are validated through field measurements. The models target power system integration studies involving active and reactive power, as well as frequency and voltage regulation where detailed models, as proposed in the standards, can be cumbersome. Field measurements of two Vestas WTGs, one 1-MW PV plant, and one 1-MW/1-MWh BESS are used for model validation. The results show that the WTG and PV performance models correctly estimate the power generation variability according to fluctuations in wind speed and solar irradiance. The BESS performance model provides satisfactory results related to grid-forming control performance and estimation of state-of-charge. The presented validation work enables using the proposed performance models for power system studies and HPP control design in all model-based design stages, that is, preliminary analysis, design, verification, and validation with a high level of confidence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Calibrating Synchronous-Generator-Interfaced DG Models in Microgrids Using Multiple Event Data

Microgrids, consisting of distributed generators (DGs), loads, and energy storage systems, play an important role in future smart grids. In order to evaluate how microgrids operate and their dynamic response, it is necessary to develop accurate dynamic models of DGs in microgrids. This paper proposes a systematic method to calibrate synchronous-generator-interfaced DG models. Challenges associated with model validation in microgrids are analyzed. Underlying parameters are categorized into two groups, i.e., the steady-state parameters and time constants, which are estimated in two successive stages using multiple event data. This methodology ensures that the validated model with the estimated parameters are applicable for all events. A modified unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to deal with the cases in which measurement of power angle is unavailable. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using field test data of a 2.6 MVA diesel generator in a real microgrid.

Wang, Zhiwen↗

Rapid Active Power Control of Photovoltaic Systems for Grid Frequency Support

As deployment of power electronic coupled generation such as photovoltaic (PV) systems increases, grid operators have shown increasing interest in calling on inverter-coupled generation to help mitigate frequency contingency events by rapidly surging active power into the grid. When responding to contingency events, the faster the active power is provided, the more effective it may be for arresting the frequency event. This paper proposes a predictive PV inverter control method for very fast and accurate control of active power. This rapid active power control method will increase the effectiveness of various higher-level controls designed to mitigate grid frequency contingency events, including fast power-frequency droop, inertia emulation, and fast frequency response, without the need for energy storage. The rapid active power control method, coupled with a maximum power point estimation method, is implemented in a prototype PV inverter connected to a PV array. The prototype inverter's response to various frequency events is experimentally confirmed to be fast (beginning within 2 line cycles and completing within 4.5 line cycles of a severe test event) and accurate (below 2% steady-state error).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamic State Estimation for Radial Microgrid Protection

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) is a generalization of differential protection that offers a reduced likelihood of misoperation, particularly in the case of devices with nonlinear characteristics such as transformers which are being energized. It is also useful in cases where distance protection performs poorly, such as transmission lines with series compensation or mutually coupled transmission lines. DSE has been previously applied to microgrid branch protection. This study investigates the use of DSE for protection of radial portions of a microgrid or distribution system. This can be a challenge in microgrids or distribution systems with distributed generation on account of lack of fault current from inverter-interfaced generation, varying fault current between grid- connected and islanded modes, the potential for normally-meshed operation and unbalanced operation due to single-phase loads. Admittance relaying has been investigated as a solution for protection of microgrids, though it has been observed to have issues with grounded-wye connected loads, and additional relaying is necessary to prevent misoperation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling of the aircraft in-trail-following task during profile descent

The cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) system concepts enable the pilot to observe the surrounding air traffic pattern. The impact of such a system is far reaching in terms of improved safety, pilot and controller workload, and aircraft fuel efficiency. One direct payoff is the ability to distribute the ATC workload to the pilot in such tasks as merging and spacing. The CDTI application of spacing approach aircraft in the terminal area is addressed. In-trail-following/CDTI experiments were performed using realistic cockpit simulators and profile descent approach scenarios. Based on collected experimental simulator data, pilot models were developed which include state estimation, decision making and flight control aspects. These models were coupled with models of aircraft and CDTI equipment to study the dynamic phenomena and stability of strings of aircraft along various approach patterns.

Goka, T.↗

Magnetic helicity as a constraint on coronal dissipation

The Taylor hypothesis has provided a model for the relaxed magnetic configurations of not only laboratory plasmas, but also of astrophysical plasmas. However, energy dissipation is possible only for systems which depart from a strict Taylor state, and hence a parameter describing that departure must be introduced, when the Taylor hypothesis is used to estimate the dissipation. An application of the Taylor hypothesis to the problem of coronal heating provides an insight into this difficult problem. When particular sorts of footpoint motions put energy and helicity in the corona, the conservation of helicity puts a constraint on how much of the energy can be dissipated. However, on considering a random distribution of footpoint motions, this constraint gets washed away, and the Taylor hypothesis is probably not going to play any significant role in the actual calculation of relevant physical quantities in the coronal heating problem.

Choudhuri, Arnab Rai↗

Controlling Flexible Manipulators, an Experimental Investigation

Lightweight, slender manipulators offer faster response and/or greater workspace range for the same size actuators than tradional manipulators. Lightweight construction of manipulator links results in increased structural flexibility. The increase flexibility must be considered in the design of control systems to properly account for the dynamic flexible vibrations and static deflections. Real time control of the flexible manipulator vibrations are experimentally investigated. Models intended for real-time control of distributed parameter system such as flexible manipulators rely on model approximation schemes. An linear model based on the application of Lagrangian dynamics to a rigid body mode and a series of separable flexible modes is examined with respect to model order requirements, and modal candidate selection. Balanced realizations are applied to the linear flexible model to obtain an estimate of appropriate order for a selected model. Describing the flexible deflections as a linear combination of modes results in measurements of beam state, which yield information about several modes. To realize the potential of linear systems theory, knowledge of each state must be available. State estimation is also accomplished by implementation of a Kalman Filter. State feedback control laws are implemented based upon linear quadratic regulator design.

Hastings, Gordon Greene↗

The COS-Halos Survey: Metallicities in the Low-redshift Circumgalactic Medium

We analyze new far-ultraviolet spectra of 13 quasars from the z∼0.2 COS-Halos survey that cover the H i Lyman limit of 14 circumgalactic medium (CGM) systems. These data yield precise estimates or more constraining limits than previous COS-Halos measurements on the H i column densities N{sub HI}. We then apply a Monte-Carlo Markov chain approach on 32 systems from COS-Halos to estimate the metallicity of the cool (T∼10{sup 4} K) CGM gas that gives rise to low-ionization state metal lines, under the assumption of photoionization equilibrium with the extragalactic UV background. The principle results are: (1) the CGM of field L* galaxies exhibits a declining H i surface density with impact parameter R{sub ⊥} (at >99.5% confidence), (2) the transmission of ionizing radiation through CGM gas alone is 70 ± 7%; (3) the metallicity distribution function of the cool CGM is unimodal with a median of 10{sup −0.51} Z{sub ⊙} and a 95% interval ≈1/50 Z{sub ⊙} to >3 Z{sub ⊙}; the incidence of metal-poor (<1/100 Z{sub ⊙}) gas is low, implying any such gas discovered along quasar sightlines is typically unrelated to L* galaxies; (4) we find an unexpected increase in gas metallicity with declining N{sub HI} (at >99.9% confidence) and, therefore, also with increasing R{sub ⊥}; the high metallicity at large radii implies early enrichment; and (5) a non-parametric estimate of the cool CGM gas mass is M{sub CGM}{sup cool}=(9.2±4.3)×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}, which together with new mass estimates for the hot CGM may resolve the galactic missing baryons problem. Future analyses of halo gas should focus on the underlying astrophysics governing the CGM, rather than processes that simply expel the medium from the halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗