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The Kepler Mission: A Mission to Determine the Frequency of Inner Planets Neat the Habitable Zone of a Wide Range of Stars

The surprising discovery of giant planets in inner orbits around solar-like stars has brought into question our understanding of the development and evolution of planetary systems, including our solar system. To make further progress, it is critical to detect and obtain data on the frequency and characteristics of Earth-class planets. The Kepler Mission is designed to be a quick, low-cost approach to accomplish that objective. Transits by Earth-class planets produce a fractional change in stellar brightness of 5 x 10(exp -5) to 40 x 10(exp -5) lasting for 4 to 16 hours, From the period and depth of the transits, the orbit and size of the planets can be calculated. The proposed instrument is a one-meter aperture photometer with a 12 deg field-of-view (FOV). To obtain the required precision and to avoid interruptions caused by day-night and seasonal cycles, the photometer will be launched into a heliocentric orbit. It will continuously and simultaneously monitor the flux from 80,000 dwarf stars brighter than 14th magnitude in the Cygnus constellation. The mission tests the hypothesis that the formation of most stars produces Earth-class planets in inner orbits. Based on this assumption and the recent observations that 2% of the stars have giant planets in inner orbits, several types of results are expected from the mission: 1. From transits of Earth-class planets, about 480 planet detections and 60 cases where two or more planets are found in the same system. 2. From transits of giant planets, about 160 detections of inner-orbit planets and 24 detections of outer-orbit planets. 3. From the phase modulation of the reflected light from giant planets, about 1400 planet detections with periods less than a week, albedos for 160 of these giant planets, and densities for seven planets.

Borucki, W. J.↗

The Kepler Mission: A Mission to Determine the Frequency of Inner Planets Near the Habitable Zone of a Wide Range of Stars

The surprising discovery of giant planets in inner orbits around solar-like stars has brought into question our understanding of the development and evolution of planetary systems, including our solar system. To make further progress, it is critical to detect and obtain data on the frequency and characteristics of Earth-class planets. The Kepler Mission is designed to be a quick, low-cost approach to accomplish that objective. Transits by Earth-class planets produce a fractional change. in stellar brightness of 5 x 10(exp -5) to 40 x 10(exp -5) lasting for 4 to 16 hours. From the period and depth of the transits, the orbit and size of the planets can be calculated. The proposed instrument is a one-meter aperture photometer with a 12 deg. field-of-view (FOV). To obtain the required precision and to avoid interruptions caused by day-night and seasonal cycles, the photometer will be launched into a heliocentric orbit. It will continuously and simultaneously monitor the flux from 80,000 dwarf stars brighter than 14th magnitude in the Cygnus constellation. The mission tests the hypothesis that the formation of most stars produces Earth-class planets in inner orbits. Based on this assumption and the recent observations that 2% of the stars have giant planets in inner orbits, several types of results are expected from the mission: 1. From transits of Earth-class planets, about 480 planet detections and 60 cases where two or more planets are found in the same system. 2. From transits of giant planets, about 160 detections of inner-orbit planets and 24 detections of outer-orbit planets. 3. From the phase modulation of the reflected light from giant planets, about 1400 planet detections with periods less than a week, albedos for 160 of these giant planets, and densities for seven planets.

Borucki, W. J.↗

The Ultraviolet Radiation Environment around M Dwarf Exoplanet Host Stars

The spectral and temporal behavior of exoplanet host stars is a critical input to models of the chemistry and evolution of planetary atmospheres. Ultraviolet photons influence the atmospheric temperature profiles and production of potential biomarkers on Earth-like planets around these stars. At present, little observational or theoretical basis exists for understanding the ultraviolet spectra of M dwarfs, despite their critical importance to predicting and interpreting the spectra of potentially habitable planets as they are obtained in the coming decades. Using observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, we present a study of the UV radiation fields around nearby M dwarf planet hosts that covers both far-UV (FUV) and near-UV (NUV) wavelengths. The combined FUV+NUV spectra are publicly available in machine-readable format. We find that all six exoplanet host stars in our sample (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, GJ 832, GJ 667C, and GJ 1214) exhibit some level of chromospheric and transition region UV emission. No "UV-quiet" M dwarfs are observed. The bright stellar Lyman-alpha emission lines are reconstructed, and we find that the Lyman-alpha line fluxes comprise approximately 37%-75% of the total 1150-3100 A flux from most M dwarfs; approximately greater than 10(exp3) times the solar value. We develop an empirical scaling relation between Lyman-alpha and Mg II emission, to be used when interstellar H I attenuation precludes the direct observation of Lyman-alpha. The intrinsic unreddened flux ratio is F(Lyman-alpha)/F(Mg II) = 10(exp3). The F(FUV)/F(NUV) flux ratio, a driver for abiotic production of the suggested biomarkers O2 and O3, is shown to be approximately 0.5-3 for all M dwarfs in our sample, greather than 10(exp3) times the solar ratio. For the four stars with moderate signal-to-noise Cosmic Origins Spectrograph time-resolved spectra, we find UV emission line variability with amplitudes of 50%.500% on 10(exp2)-10(exp3) s timescales. This effect should be taken into account in future UV transiting planet studies, including searches for O3 on Earth-like planets. Finally, we observe relatively bright H2 fluorescent emission from four of the M dwarf exoplanetary systems (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, and GJ 832). Additional modeling work is needed to differentiate between a stellar photospheric or possible exoplanetary origin for the hot (T(H2) approximately equal to 2000-4000 K) molecular gas observed in these objects.

France, Kevin↗

Partially Transparent Petaled Mask/Occulter for Visible-Range Spectrum

The presence of the Poisson Spot, also known as the spot of Arago, has been known since the 18th century. This spot is the consequence of constructive interference of light diffracted by the edge of the obstacle where the central position can be determined by symmetry of the object. More recently, many NASA missions require the suppression of this spot in the visible range. For instance, the exoplanetary missions involving space telescopes require telescopes to image the planetary bodies orbiting central stars. For this purpose, the starlight needs to be suppressed by several orders of magnitude in order to image the reflected light from the orbiting planet. For the Earth-like planets, this suppression needs to be at least ten orders of magnitude. One of the common methods of suppression involves sharp binary petaled occulters envisioned to be placed many thousands of miles away from the telescope blocking the starlight. The suppression of the Poisson Spot by binary sharp petal tips can be problematic when the thickness of the tips becomes smaller than the wavelength of the incident beam. First they are difficult to manufacture and also it invalidates the laws of physical optics. The proposed partially transparent petaled masks/occulters compensate for this sharpness with transparency along the surface of the petals. Depending on the geometry of the problem, this transparency can be customized such that only a small region of the petal is transparent and the remaining of the surface is opaque. This feature allows easy fabrication of this type of occultation device either as a mask or occulter. A partially transparent petaled mask/ occulter has been designed for the visible spectrum range. The mask/occulter can suppress the intensity along the optical axis up to ten orders of magnitude. The design process can tailor the mask shape, number of petals, and transparency level to the near-field and farfield diffraction region. The mask/occulter can be used in space astronomy, ground-based telescope, and high-energy laser systems, and optical lithography to eliminate the Poisson Spot.

Shiri, Ron Shahram↗

The atmospheres of the earth and the other planets: Origin, evolution and composition

The current understanding of the composition, chemistry, and structure of the atmospheres of the other planets and the origin, early history, and evolution of the earth's atmosphere is reviewed. The information on the atmospheres of the other planets is based on the successful Mariner, Viking, Pioneer, and Voyager missions to these planets. The information on the origin, early history, and evolution of the atmosphere, which is somewhat speculative, is largely based on numerical studies with geochemical and photochemical models.

Levine, Joel S.↗

How Common are Habitable Planets?

The Earth is teeming with life, which, occupies a diverse array of environments; other bodies in our Solar System offer fewer, if any, niches which are habitable by life as we know it. Nonetheless, astronomical studies suggest that a large number of habitable planets-are likely to be present within our Galaxy.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Precursor Science for the Terrestrial Planet Finder

This document outlines a path for the development of the field of extrasolar planet research, with a particular emphasis on the goals of the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF). Over the past decade, a new field of research has developed, the study of extrasolar planetary systems, driven by the discovery of massive planets around nearby stars. The planet count now stands at over 130. Are there Earth-like planets around nearby stars? Might any of those planets be conducive to the formation and maintenance of life? These arc the questions that TPF seeks to answer. TPF will be implemented as a suite of two space observatories, a 6-m class optical coronagraph, to be launched around 20 14, and a formation flying mid-infrared interferometer, to be launched sometime prior to 2020. These facilities will survey up to 165 or more nearby stars and detect planets like Earth should they be present in the 'habitable zone' around each star. With observations over a broad wavelength range, TPF will provide a robust determination of the atmospheric composition of planets to assess habitability and the presence of life. At this early stage of TPF's development, precursor observational and theoretical programs are essential to help define the mission, to aid our understanding of the planets that TPF could discover, and to characterize the stars that TPF will eventually study. This document is necessarily broad in scope because the significance of individual discoveries is greatly enhanced when viewed in thc context of the field as a whole. This document has the ambitious goal of taking us from our limited knowledge today, in 2004, to the era of TPF observations in the middle of the next decade. We must use the intervening years wisely. This document will be reviewed annually and updated as needed. The most recent edition is available online at http://tpf.jpl.nasa.gov/ or by email request to lawson@hucy.jpl.nasa.gov

Lawson, P. R.↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Search for Planet 9

We use Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) observations at 98 GHz (2015–2019), 150 GHz (2013–2019), and 229 GHz (2017–2019) to perform a blind shift-and-stack search for Planet 9. The search explores distances from 300 au to 2000 au and velocities up to 6farcm3 per year, depending on the distance (r). For a 5 Earth-mass Planet 9 the detection limit varies from 325 au to 625 au, depending on the sky location. For a 10 Earth-mass planet the corresponding range is 425 au to 775 au. The predicted aphelion and most likely location of the planet corresponds to the shallower end of these ranges. The search covers the whole 18,000 square degrees of the ACT survey. No significant detections are found, which is used to place limits on the millimeter-wave flux density of Planet 9 over much of its orbit. Overall we eliminate roughly 17% and 9% of the parameter space for a 5 and 10 Earth-mass Planet 9, respectively. These bounds approach those of a recent INPOP19a ephemeris-based analysis, but do not exceed it. We also provide a list of the 10 strongest candidates from the search for possible follow-up. More generally, we exclude (at 95% confidence) the presence of an unknown solar system object within our survey area brighter than 4–12 mJy (depending on position) at 150 GHz with current distance 300 au < r < 600 au and heliocentric angular velocityy <?CDATA $1\buildrel{\,\prime}\over{.} 5\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}\lt v\cdot \tfrac{500\,\mathrm{au}}{r}\lt 2\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.} 3\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$?> 1 .' 5 yr – 1 < v · 500 au r < 2 ." 3 yr – 1 , corresponding to low-to-moderate eccentricities. These limits worsen gradually beyond 600 au, reaching 5–15 mJy by 1500 au.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A search for Planet 9

We use Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) observations at 98 GHz (2015–2019), 150 GHz (2013–2019), and 229 GHz (2017–2019) to perform a blind shift-and-stack search for Planet 9. The search explores distances from 300 au to 2000 au and velocities up to 6\farcm3 per year, depending on the distance (r). For a 5 Earth-mass Planet 9 the detection limit varies from 325 au to 625 au, depending on the sky location. For a 10 Earth-mass planet the corresponding range is 425 au to 775 au. The predicted aphelion and most likely location of the planet corresponds to the shallower end of these ranges. The search covers the whole 18,000 square degrees of the ACT survey. No significant detections are found, which is used to place limits on the millimeter-wave flux density of Planet 9 over much of its orbit. Overall we eliminate roughly 17% and 9% of the parameter space for a 5 and 10 Earth-mass Planet 9, respectively. These bounds approach those of a recent INPOP19a ephemeris-based analysis, but do not exceed it. We also provide a list of the 10 strongest candidates from the search for possible follow-up. More generally, we exclude (at 95% confidence) the presence of an unknown solar system object within our survey area brighter than 4–12 mJy (depending on position) at 150 GHz with current distance 300 au < r < 600 au and heliocentric angular velocity 1\farcm5 per yr < v x (500au/r) < 2\farcs3 per yr, corresponding to low-to-moderate eccentricities. These limits worsen gradually beyond 600 au, reaching 5–15 mJy by 1500 au.

Sigurd Naess↗

Fluid dynamics of multiphase flow in volcanic environments on the Earth, Io, and other planets

Data was compiled on H2O, CO2, S, and SO2 and it was analyzed by various techniques to prepare phase diagrams relevant to conditions on the Earth, Io, Mars, and other planets. The use of Cray models for volcanic eruptions was examined. Attempts are being made to develop equations of state of the compounds listed above to be compatible with the Cray code so that they can be called as subroutines for the volcanic models. This is a major project, as the current code uses only the equation of state for a perfect gas, and requires that the atmosphere be the same composition as the volcanic gas. The analysis of the thermodynamic data is time consuming, and was complicated by changes from a VAX/VMS system to Macintosh's, Crays using CTSS, Crays using Unicos, and Sun workstations.

Kieffer, Susan Werner↗

Earthlike planets: Surfaces of Mercury, Venus, earth, moon, Mars

The surfaces of the earth and the other terrestrial planets of the inner solar system are reviewed in light of the results of recent planetary explorations. Past and current views of the origin of the earth, moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars are discussed, and the surface features characteristic of the moon, Mercury, Mars and Venus are outlined. Mechanisms for the modification of planetary surfaces by external factors and from within the planet are examined, including surface cycles, meteoritic impact, gravity, wind, plate tectonics, volcanism and crustal deformation. The origin and evolution of the moon are discussed on the basis of the Apollo results, and current knowledge of Mercury and Mars is examined in detail. Finally, the middle periods in the history of the terrestrial planets are compared, and future prospects for the exploration of the inner planets as well as other rocky bodies in the solar system are discussed.

Murray, B.↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

Sellers, Piers J.↗

Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets

An adaptive-nulling method has been proposed to augment the nulling-optical- interferometry method of detection of Earth-like planets around distant stars. The method is intended to reduce the cost of building and aligning the highly precise optical components and assemblies needed for nulling. Typically, at the mid-infrared wavelengths used for detecting planets orbiting distant stars, a star is millions of times brighter than an Earth-sized planet. In order to directly detect the light from the planet, it is necessary to remove most of the light coming from the star. Nulling interferometry is one way to suppress the light from the star without appreciably suppressing the light from the planet. In nulling interferometry in its simplest form, one uses two nominally identical telescopes aimed in the same direction and separated laterally by a suitable distance. The light collected by the two telescopes is processed through optical trains and combined on a detector. The optical trains are designed such that the electric fields produced by an on-axis source (the star) are in anti-phase at the detector while the electric fields from the planet, which is slightly off-axis, combine in phase, so that the contrast ratio between the star and the planet is greatly decreased. If the electric fields from the star are exactly equal in amplitude and opposite in phase, then the star is effectively nulled out. Nulling is effective only if it is complete in the sense that it occurs simultaneously in both polarization states and at all wavelengths of interest. The need to ensure complete nulling translates to extremely tight demands upon the design and fabrication of the complex optical trains: The two telescopes must be highly symmetric, the reflectivities of the many mirrors in the telescopes and other optics must be carefully tailored, the optical coatings must be extremely uniform, sources of contamination must be minimized, optical surfaces must be nearly ideal, and alignments must be extremely precise. Satisfaction of all of these requirements entails substantial cost.

Lay, Oliver P.↗

Kepler Mission: A Wide-FOV Photometer Designed to Determine the Frequency of Earth-Size and Larger Planets Around Solar-like stars

The first step in discovering the extent of life in our galaxy is to determine the number of terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ). The Kepler Mission is designed around a 0.95 m aperture Schmidt-type telescope with an array of 42 CCDs designed to continuously monitor the brightness of 100,000 solar-like stars to detect the transits of Earth-size and larger planets. The photometer is scheduled to be launched into heliocentric orbit in 2007. Measurements of the depth and repetition time of transits provide the size of the planet relative to the star and its orbital period. When combined with ground-based spectroscopy of these stars to fix the stellar parameters, the true planet radius and orbit scale, hence the position relative to the HZ are determined. These spectra are also used to discover the relationships between the characteristics of planets and the stars they orbit. In particular, the association of planet size and occurrence frequency with stellar mass and metallicity will be investigated. At the end of the four year mission, hundreds of terrestrial planets should be discovered in and near the HZ of their stars if such planets are common. A null result would imply that terrestrial planets in the HZ occur in less than 1% of the stars and that life might be quite rare. Based on the results of the current doppler-velocity discoveries, detection of a thousand giant planets is expected. Information on their albedos and densities of those giants showing transits will be obtained.

Borucki, William↗

Dynamics and Origin of Extra-solar Planetary Systems and Microlensing Detection of Extra-solar Planets

We compare a space-based microlensing search for planets, with a ground based microlensing search originally proposed by D. Tytler (Beichman, et al. 1996). Perturbations of microlensing light curves when the lens star has a planetary companion are sought by one wide angle survey telescope and an array of three or four followup narrow angle telescopes distributed in longitude that follow events with high precision, high time resolution photometry. Alternative ground based programs are considered briefly. With the four 2 meter telescopes distributed in longitude in the southern hemisphere in the Tytler proposal, observational constraints on a ground-based search for planets during microlensing events toward the center of the galaxy are severe. Probably less than 100 events could be monitored per year with high precision, high time resolution photometry with only about 42% coverage on the average regardless of how many events were discovered by the survey telescope. Statistics for the occurrence and properties for Jupiter-mass planets would be meaningful but relatively meager four years after the program was started, and meaningful statistics for Earth-mass planets would be non existent. In contrast, the 14,500 events in a proposed 4 year space based program (GEST = Galactic Exoplanet Survey Telescope) would yield very sound statistics on the occurrence, masses and separations of Jupiter-mass planets, and significant constraints on similar properties for Earth-mass planets. The significance of the Jupiter statistics would be to establish the frequency of planetary systems like our own, where terrestrial planets could exist inside the orbits of the giants.

Peale, S. J.↗

Prospecting for Habitable Worlds

NASAs Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASAs first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 2200 planets and over 2200 candidate planets, many of them as small as the Earth. Forty nine of these are less than twice the size of Earth and orbit in the habitable zone of their stars, all of which are cooler and significantly smaller than the Sun.Today, Keplers amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Indeed, demonstrating that the science was feasible took four proposals to NASAs Discovery Program and extensive research and laboratory demonstrations. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing. On August 23 2015 we reported the discovery of Kepler-452b, the first small, possibly rocky planet in the habitable zone of a G2 star very similar to our own. Kepler-452b orbits its star once every 385 days in an orbit just 5 larger than that of Earth. This discovery represents an important step towards finding and characterizing small habitable worlds orbiting Sun-like stars.

Jenkins, Jon M.↗