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Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗

Partitioning the LIS/OTD Lightning Climatological Dataset into Separate Ground and Cloud Flash Distributions

Presently, it is not well understood how to best model nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from lightning because lightning is highly variable. Peak current, channel length, channel altitude, stroke multiplicity, and the number of flashes that occur in a particular region (i.e., flash density) all influence the amount of lightning NOx produced. Moreover, these 5 variables are not the same for ground and cloud flashes; e.g., cloud flashes normally have lower peak currents, higher altitudes, and higher flash densities than ground flashes [see (Koshak, 2009) for additional details]. Because the existing satellite observations of lightning (Fig. 1) from the Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector (LIS/OTD) do not distinguish between ground and cloud fashes, which produce different amounts of NOx, it is very difficult to accurately account for the regional/global production of lightning NOx. Hence, the ability to partition the LIS/OTD lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash distributions would substantially benefit the atmospheric chemistry modeling community. NOx indirectly influences climate because it controls the concentration of ozone and hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. The importance of lightning-produced NOx is empasized throughout the scientific literature (see for example, Huntrieser et al. 1998). In fact, lightning is the most important NOx source in the upper troposphere with a global production rate estimated to vary between 2 and 20 Tg (N)yr(sup -1) (Lee et al., 1997), with more recent estimates of about 6 Tg(N)yr(sup -1) (Martin et al., 2007). In order to make accurate predictions, global chemistry/climate models (as well as regional air quality modells) must more accurately account for the effects of lightning NOx. In particular, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E (Schmidt et al., 2005) and the GEOS-CHEM global chemical transport model (Bey et al., 2001) would each benefit from a partitioning of the LIS/OTD lightning climatology. In this study, we introduce a new technique for retrieving the ground flash fraction in a set of N lightning observed from space and that occur within a specific latitude/longitude bin. The method is briefly described and applied to CONUS lightning that have already been partitioned into ground and cloud flashes using independent ground-based observations, in order to assess the accuracy of the retrieval method. The retrieval errors are encouragingly small.

Koshak, W. J.↗

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

Spectroscopic Measurements and Models of Energy Deposition in the Substrate of Quantum Circuits by Natural Ionizing Radiation

Naturally occurring background radiation is a potential source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. In order to characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory representative of superconducting qubits’ environments, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background radiation events inside a millikelvin refrigerator. The spectrometer was designed to mimic the size and composition of a quantum circuit. Specifically, we measured the background radiation spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 500 and 1500 µm, and one area, 25 mm 2 . The observed spectra span energies from a few kilo-electron-volts up to nearly 10 MeV, are nearly featureless, and decrease in intensity by a factor of 40 000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for the 500-µm substrate. We integrate the spectra to obtain the average event rates and deposited power levels. These quantities correspond to a rate of 0.023 events per second and a power of 4.9 keV s -1 , when counting events that deposit at least 40 keV for the 500-µm-thick substrate. We find that the cryogenic measurements are in good agreement with predictions based on simple measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux outside the refrigerator, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. This model requires no free parameters to predict the background radiation spectra in the silicon substrates. The agreement between measurements and predictions demonstrates that the model we present can be used to assess the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic-ray sources to background radiation interactions in silicon substrates of varying thickness. These spectroscopic measurements are performed with a novel combination of superconducting microresonators located on micromachined silicon islands that define the interaction volume with background radiation. The resonators transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. Microresonator readout closely resembles dispersive superconducting qubit readout, so similar devices—with or without micromachined islands—are suitable for integration with superconducting quantum circuits as detectors for background radiation events. For our specific laboratory conditions, we find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events that deposit E < 1 ⁢Me⁢V. We present results demonstrating that the background radiation spectrum contains relevant contributions from cosmic-ray particles other than muons, particularly a tail of multi-mega-electron-volt events due to protons and neutrons. These observations suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits, supported by an empirically validated model for generating reliable predictions of radiation interactions with silicon substrates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Combined Experimental and Modeling Study of the Interactions of Acid Gas with Common Spacecraft Surfaces for Fire Safety Applications

A fire in a spacecraft poses detrimental consequences and risks mission success in addition to crew safety. This is compounded during long-duration missions when the crew has limited options to recover from a fire. A common spacecraft fire concern is the smoldering of wire insulation, typically made from Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE). This creates acid gases such as Hydrogen Chloride (HCl), Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) and Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN). These poisonous gases are hazardous to the crew. They also interact with common surfaces within the spacecraft more than dominant combustion products such as CO2 and H2O. This makes them more difficult to track for potential fire detection techniques, or for postfire clean-up. It is imperative to be able to understand and predict the fate of these poisonous species in a microgravity environment in order to design a safe vehicle. HCl interacts with a number of materials inside a spacecraft. Primary among these materials is aluminum, which is abundantly used due to its strong and light weight nature. Aluminum has a natural oxide layer that protects it from corrosion but is typically treated to enhance this oxide layer. Among these treatments is a chromate conversion coating (CCC), which provides a thin enough protective oxide layer to still conduct electricity, and a traditional anodized material that has a thicker oxide layer that does not conduct electricity. Nomex is another common material found inside a spacecraft. It is a flame-resistant woven polymer that is related to nylon. This commercially available material is used for cargo storage bags and as a fire barrier. Physics-based models were developed to predict the uptake of HCl by these materials. The ultimate objective of these models is to predict the fate of HCl within the spacecraft so that sensors can be placed in meaningful locations in future missions based on the model predictions. To support these modeling efforts, experiments were performed in a cast acrylic test cell that measured the difference between the inlet and outlet concentration of HCl after inserting a sample rod of the test material. Different uptake capacities were realized for each type of sample tested. A computational fluid dynamics model (CFD) model of the reactor was then constructed that used a one-step global reaction rate with calibratable reaction (or kinetic) constants. These constants were calibrated to match the HCl uptake on the CCC aluminum samples, and the same kinetic constants were then tested for the stock and anodized aluminum samples. Model predictions matched the experimental data for the stock aluminum, and to a much lesser extent, the anodized aluminum. The model was additionally validated at different flow rates, sample surface areas, and inlet concentrations, and showed good agreement for all stock and CCC samples. The model did not accurately predict the HCl uptake in the anodized samples compared to the other two types of aluminum. Adjusting the kinetic constants and transport properties did little to improve the prediction. X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was used to determine that the oxide layer thickness of anodized aluminum is approximately 5,000 nm, compared to 250 nm for CCC and 50 nm for stock. XPS also revealed presence of chlorine further down in the aluminum oxide layer in anodized samples than CCC and stock samples after the samples were saturated with HCl, indicating that accounting for diffusion of HCl into the oxide layer is important for accurate prediction of HCl uptake onto anodized aluminum. Consequently, a multi-scale model was developed and tested. First, a single pore inside the anodized aluminum oxide layer was modeled and is referred to as the pore-scale model. In this model, HCl diffused through the pore and reacted with the aluminum oxide pore wall to create aluminum chloride. The sample was then saturated when the mass transfer resistance through the growing aluminum chloride layer became too large for the HCl to reach the aluminum oxide wall and continue the reaction. This pore-scale model was coupled to the reactor-scale model using a concentration-dependent diffusion coefficient, resulting in much more accurate predictions (approximately half the sum square error of the aforementioned reactor-scale model that produced good agreement for stock and CCC) for a variety of operating conditions. The amount of water vapor or relative humidity (RH) in the flow during a reactor experiment was determined to influence HCl uptake. Experiments were performed to understand the interaction of gaseous HCl with aluminum surfaces in the presence of water vapor. The results show that increasing levels of RH increased the capacity of aluminum to adsorb HCl but decreased the capacity of Nomex to uptake HCl. A series of tests were performed on individual aluminum samples after they had been saturated with a fixed concentration of HCl in dry air conditions with the goal of determining how their HCl uptake capacity changes after various treatments with water relative to the original saturation tests. HCl-saturated aluminum samples subjected to a second dry air flow at the same HCl concentration as the original test had an uptake of 23.5% of the original sample with no treatment in between. Saturated aluminum samples subjected to an air flow with a RH of 90% in between tests had an uptake of 35.6% of the original. Saturated aluminum samples submerged in distilled water for 12 hours in between tests had an uptake of 82.2% of the original sample. Previously saturated aluminum tested with HCl and a 50% RH air flow resulted in similar uptake characteristics in multiple repeated tests. The experiments show the profound effect water vapor has on HCl uptake onto aluminum surfaces. In the samples subjected to water vapor or liquid water, capillary condensation and capillary diffusion alters the transport of HCl significantly. A model was proposed that developed a relationship between RH and the coefficient of HCl diffusion in aluminum chloride. This produced an “S-shaped” curve with diffusion coefficient as a function of RH, with 45% RH represented as the point where the diffusion coefficient is halfway between no water saturation and 100% water saturation in the aluminum chloride product layer. No difference in uptake characteristics for the experiment or model were realized between 50% and 62% RH. The results from the large-scale microgravity experiment, Saffire, are discussed as they pertain to the fate of HCl throughout a spacecraft. HCl was released, both as a standalone event, and in concurrence with the burning of a structured cloth. These events only produced a small response in the far field HCl sensor, while a PMMA burn that did not produce HCl had a significantly greater response. A ground-based large-scale facility was constructed to flow acid gas at the scale and configuration realized in the Saffire experiments. A CFD model of this duct was constructed to test kinetic parameters developed in this work at a larger scale and different geometric configuration and to predict the results of the large-scale facility. The models developed in this work were used to interpret the results of the microgravity tests and lead the discussion on what further experiments and models are needed in order to predict the fate of acid gas in a spacecraft environment. To summarize, the major contributions of this work are as follows: the capacity to uptake HCl, with and without the presence of water vapor, was measured for a variety of real spacecraft surfaces. Several different models (single reactor-scale, multiscale, spacecraft-scale) were developed and with the aid of modeling, the rate of uptake for those surfaces was also predicted and validated. The kinetic parameters determined from the small-scale reactor experiments and models were used to predict large-scale and microgravity tests. Conclusions from this research will be used in the design of spacecraft vehicles and large-scale microgravity fire safety experiments. The models built by this work will aid designers in sensor placement and could be used to predict acid gas transport from fires in partial gravity, as would be seen in Lunar and Martian habitats.

fire safety↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design and Testing of a Low Noise Flight Guidance Concept

A flight guidance concept was developed to assist in flying continuous descent approach (CDA) procedures designed to lower the noise under the flight path of jet transport aircraft during arrival operations at an airport. The guidance consists of a trajectory prediction algorithm that was tuned to produce a high-efficiency, low noise flight profile with accompanying autopilot and flight display elements needed by the flight control system and pilot to fly the approach. A key component of the flight guidance was a real-time display of energy error relative to the predicted flight path. The guidance was integrated with the conventional Flight Management System (FMS) guidance of a modern jet transport airplane and tested in a high fidelity flight simulation. A charted arrival procedure, which allowed flying conventional arrivals, CDA arrivals with standard guidance, and CDA arrivals with the new low noise guidance, was developed to assist in the testing and evaluation of the low noise guidance concept. Results of the simulation testing showed the low noise guidance was easy to use by airline pilot test subjects and effective in achieving the desired noise reduction. Noise under the flight path was reduced by at least 2 decibels in Sound Exposure Level (SEL) at distances from about 3 nautical miles out to about 17.5 nautical miles from the runway, with a peak reduction of 8.5 decibels at about 10.5 nautical miles. Fuel consumption was also reduced by about 17% for the LNG conditions compared to baseline runs for the same flight distance. Pilot acceptance and understanding of the guidance was quite high with favorable comments and ratings received from all test subjects.

Williams, David H.↗

Experimental and Finite Element Modeling of Near-Threshold Fatigue Crack Growth for the K-Decreasing Test Method

The experimental methods to determine near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate data are prescribed in ASTM standard E647. To produce near-threshold data at a constant stress ratio (R), the applied stress-intensity factor (K) is decreased as the crack grows based on a specified K-gradient. Consequently, as the fatigue crack growth rate threshold is approached and the crack tip opening displacement decreases, remote crack wake contact may occur due to the plastically deformed crack wake surfaces and shield the growing crack tip resulting in a reduced crack tip driving force and non-representative crack growth rate data. If such data are used to life a component, the evaluation could yield highly non-conservative predictions. Although this anomalous behavior has been shown to be affected by K-gradient, starting K level, residual stresses, environmental assisted cracking, specimen geometry, and material type, the specifications within the standard to avoid this effect are limited to a maximum fatigue crack growth rate and a suggestion for the K-gradient value. This paper provides parallel experimental and computational simulations for the K-decreasing method for two materials (an aluminum alloy, AA 2024-T3 and a titanium alloy, Ti 6-2-2-2-2) to aid in establishing clear understanding of appropriate testing requirements. These simulations investigate the effect of K-gradient, the maximum value of stress-intensity factor applied, and material type. A material independent term is developed to guide in the selection of appropriate test conditions for most engineering alloys. With the use of such a term, near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate tests can be performed at accelerated rates, near-threshold data can be acquired in days instead of weeks without having to establish testing criteria through trial and error, and these data can be acquired for most engineering materials, even those that are produced in relatively small product forms.

Smith, Stephen W.↗

San Francisco Bar Pilot Fatigue Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent of fatigue among San Francisco Bar Pilots (Maritime Pilots) and its potential impact on safety, and to make recommendations concerning how the risk of fatigue could be managed. Information was gathered via a literature review, observations of Bar Pilots at work, surveys, a task analysis, and an analysis of dispatch records.The work of San Francisco Bar Pilots involves an unusual mix of activities and job demands. Their work calls for situational awareness, reasoning, communication, and perceptual abilities comparable to those required by airline pilots and air traffic controllers. Errors can have severe consequences for public safety and the environment, as well as significant financial costs. Fatigue is increasingly recognized as a hazard that must be managed by the transportation industry. The reduced sleep quality and quantity experienced by personnel who work at night, in conjunction with human circadian rhythms can lead to an operationally significant level of cognitive impairment. The cognitive impact of fatigue includes functions that are critical to safe maritime piloting, such as vigilance, judgment, reaction time and communication. The surveys distributed to Bar Pilots did not uncover evidence of widespread fatigue. The survey results also suggested that fatigue was not a major concern of Bar Pilots. Bar Pilots had overall low scores on the subjective fatigue measures used in the survey, and generally assessed the safety risk due to fatigue as low. Compared to air traffic controllers, Bar Pilots gave significantly lower ratings on questions concerning the prevalence and impact of fatigue. The application of fatigue modeling software to Bar Pilot dispatch records identified that in most cases, pilot's cognitive effectiveness was predicted to be acceptable during their duty periods. However, these results could not be verified with objective data.The study identified a number of fatigue issues that deserve attention. These include Bar Pilot work periods that frequently infringe on the circadian low, consecutive work periods without a significant break, consecutive periods of night work, unpredictable work schedules, start time variability, the potential for sleep inertia, and the number of pilots on the board at any given time.

fatigue↗

Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectroscopic Determination of the Physical Conditions in Hot Optically Thin Sources

Astrophysical Plasma Emission Database - APED consists of atomic data, primarily theoretical, needed to calculate X-ray through optical emission spectra of hot thermal plasmas. These data are supplemented by experimental values, such as laboratory plasma wave- lengths, and are validated by experiment only rarely. Thus the comparison of predicted spectra to astrophysical spectra serves as invaluable feedback on the quality of the models. Following up on unfavorable comparisons, we have communicated atomic data needs to atomic theorists and experimental plasma physicists so that improvements can be made to the database. The database is now reasonably complete from approx. 1 to 30 A, and from - 90 to 180 A, with significant gaps remaining in the range 30 to 90 A. Astrophysical Plasma Emission Code - APEC uses the APED data as inputs and computes level populations and line emissivities using a rate matrix solver. Tabulated models for a fine grid of temperatures and densities can be applied to observational data. The current public version of APEC output uses an input ionization balance model, assuming CIE; however, we have a working version to calculate the ionization state of the gas. We will begin testing non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) models over the next year - we are now finalizing the atomic database needed to perform the ionization state calculations. At that time, the code will be made public. We have developed optimized error codes, additional testing protocols and substantial documentation, in preparation for this public release. Secondarily, we have begun to investigate the use of APED and APEC for X-ray photoionized plasma, beginning with opacity modeling (e.g. warm absorbers). Application to bright AGN Chandra grating spectra suggests that the accurate wavelengths in APED are of great importance to fitting the data. We are exploring additional subroutines to APEC to extend its usefulness for X-ray photoionized plasma, e.g. to include collisional or photo-excitation of metastable levels for absorption.

Oliversen, Ronald J.↗

Occultation Predictions Using CCD Strip-Scanning Astrometry

We are developing the method of CCD strip-scanning astrometry for the purpose of deriving reliable advance predictions for occultations involving small objects in the outer solar system. We are using a camera system based on a Ford/Loral 2Kx2K CCD with the Crossley telescope at Lick Observatory for this work. The columns of die CCD are aligned East-West, the telescope drive is stopped, and the CCD is clocked at the same rate that the stars drift across it. In this way we obtain arbitrary length strip images 20 arcmin wide with 0.58" pixels. Since planets move mainly in RA, it is possible to obtain images of the planet and star to be occulted on the same strip well before the occultation occurs. The strip-to-strip precision (i.e. reproducibility) of positions is limited by atmospheric image motion to about 0.1" rms per strip. However, for objects that are nearby in R.A., the image motion is highly correlated and their relative positions are good to 0.02" rms per strip. We will show that the effects of atmospheric image motion on a given strip can be removed if a sufficient number of strips of a given area have been obtained. Thus, it is possible to reach an rms precision of 0.02" per strip, corresponding to about 0.3 of Pluto or Triton's angular radius. The ultimate accuracy of a prediction based on strip-scanning astrometry is currently limited by the accuracy of the positions of the stars in the astrometric network used and by systematic errors most likely due to the optical system. We will show the results of . the prediction of some recent occultations as examples of the current capabilities and limitations of this technique.

Dunham, Edward W.↗

Protograph LDPC Codes with Node Degrees at Least 3

In this paper we present protograph codes with a small number of degree-3 nodes and one high degree node. The iterative decoding threshold for proposed rate 1/2 codes are lower, by about 0.2 dB, than the best known irregular LDPC codes with degree at least 3. The main motivation is to gain linear minimum distance to achieve low error floor. Also to construct rate-compatible protograph-based LDPC codes for fixed block length that simultaneously achieves low iterative decoding threshold and linear minimum distance. We start with a rate 1/2 protograph LDPC code with degree-3 nodes and one high degree node. Higher rate codes are obtained by connecting check nodes with degree-2 non-transmitted nodes. This is equivalent to constraint combining in the protograph. The condition where all constraints are combined corresponds to the highest rate code. This constraint must be connected to nodes of degree at least three for the graph to have linear minimum distance. Thus having node degree at least 3 for rate 1/2 guarantees linear minimum distance property to be preserved for higher rates. Through examples we show that the iterative decoding threshold as low as 0.544 dB can be achieved for small protographs with node degrees at least three. A family of low- to high-rate codes with minimum distance linearly increasing in block size and with capacity-approaching performance thresholds is presented. FPGA simulation results for a few example codes show that the proposed codes perform as predicted.

low density parity check (LDPC)↗

dynamics of organic-mineral interactions at the metal oxide-solution interface as studied via binding energetics (Final report)

This project focused on addressing longstanding fundamental and experimental uncertainties on how dissolved organic substances (DOS) interact with metal oxide surface under environmentally relevant conditions. By leveraging a custom-built real-time, in-tandem flow adsorption microcalorimetry-UV-Vis/fluorescence spectroscopy platform, we characterized the binding energetics, kinetics and mechanistic pathways driving DOS-metal oxide interactions at temporal resolution on the order of 1-5 seconds. We studied a diverse suite of model organic compounds/substances – including monocarboxylates (e.g. acetate and benzoate), di-carboxylates (oxalate and succinate), amino acids, amino-based nanparticles and natural organic matter – interacting at the mineral-water interface of structurally- and/or chemically distinct metal oxides (including SiO2, boehmite, ferrihydrite, and γ-Al2O3). Our results indicated that DOS-metal oxide interactions are governed by multi-step reaction pathways, often switching between distinct, resolvable enthalpy- and entropy-driven non-electrostatic or electrostatic configurations. To quantify these interactions, we developed and implemented an analytical workflow that integrates peak deconvolution and Monte-Carlo based error propagation to determine site-specific thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for individual binding/debinding events. In addition to resolving apparent first-order rate constants of each event, we were able to quantify associated apparent equilibrium constants as well as free energy, enthalpy and entropy contribution to the activation and subsequent progression of the binding/debinding process across compounds, compound class and metal oxide surfaces. The kinetic-thermodynamic data produced in this study captured how the interplay between oxide surface reactivity and DOS molecular structure jointly drives binding-debinding dynamics. Notably, that at pH below PZC of the oxide surface, neutral species were heavily involved in monocarboxylate binding, while anionic species drove dicarboxylate binding. Also, that among amino acids 1) positional isomers show distinctive binding characteristics to each other while enantiomers show no significant differences in binding characteristics, 2) molecules that bind via outer-sphere complexation show a larger entropic shift between binding and debinding with no impact on oxide surface while 3) inner-sphere interactions increased anion exchange capacity of the oxide surface. The new insights and data from this work has great potential for improving predictive modeling of carbon dynamics and specifically organic-mineral interactions in environmental and industrial systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atmospheric Structure of Triton and Pluto

The goal of this research was to better determine the atmospheric structures of Triton and Pluto through further analysis of three occultation data sets obtained with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO.) As the research progressed, we concentrated our efforts on the Triton data, as this appeared to be the most fruitful. Three papers have been prepared as a result of this research. The first paper presents new results about Triton's atmospheric structure from the analysis of all ground-based stellar occultation data recorded to date, including one single-chord occultation recorded on 1993 July 10 and nine occultation lightcurves from the double-star event on 1995 August 14. These stellar occultation observations made both in the visible and in the infrared have good spatial coverage of Triton, including the first Triton central-flash observations, and are the first data to probe the altitude level 20-100 km on Triton. The small-planet lightcurve model of J. L. Elliot and L. A. Young was generalized to include stellar flux refracted by the far limb, and then fitted to the data. Values of the pressure, derived from separate immersion and emersion chords, show no significant trends with latitude, indicating that Triton's atmosphere is spherically symmetric at approximately 50 km altitude to within the error of the measurements; however, asymmetry observed in the central flash indicates the atmosphere is not homogenous at the lowest levels probed (approximately 20 km altitude). From the average of the 1995 occultation data, the equivalent isothermal temperature of the atmosphere is 47 plus or minus 1 K and the atmospheric pressure at 1400 km radius (approximately 50 km altitude) is 1.4 plus or minus 0.1 microbar. Both of these are not consistent with a model based on Voyager UVS and RSS observations in 1989. The atmospheric temperature from the occultation is 5 K colder than that predicted by the model and the observed pressure is a factor of 1.8 greater than the model. In our opinion, the disagreement in temperature and pressure is probably due to modeling problems at the microbar level, since measurements at this level have not previously been made. Alternatively, the difference could be due to seasonal change in Triton's atmospheric structure. The second paper reports observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. The most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years -- significantly faster than predicted by published frost model for Triton. Our results suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto. A third paper 'Global Warming on Triton' will appear in a the January 1999 issue of Sky and Telescope.

Elliot, James L.↗

Simulator Evaluation of a New Cockpit Descent Procedure

An experiment was conducted to evaluate flight crew performance of the "Precision Descent," a new cockpit procedure designed to support the Descent Advisor (DA), one of the components in a new air traffic control advisory system called the "Center-TRACON Automation System" (CTAS). The DA predicts when aircraft will reach a specific waypoint on the arrival route, and presents controllers with clearance advisories designed to improve the sequencing of arriving aircraft. The effectiveness of the DA depends on the aircraft's descent trajectory: where it begins descent, what speed it maintains, how fast and at what altitude it crosses the bottom-of-descent waypoint. The Precision Descent allows controllers to assign these descent parameters to the flight crew. A Field Evaluation of the DA was conducted in Denver in 1995. Three separate clearances using standard ATC phraseology were used to support the cockpit descent procedure during this evaluation. The number and length of these clearances caused problems for both controllers and flight crews, causing readback errors, repeat requests and procedure misunderstandings. These observations led to a focus group meeting in which controller and pilot participants in the 1995 FE assisted in the redesign of the procedure. The Precision Descent eliminates one clearance used in the earlier study, and greatly reduces the length of the remaining clearances. This was accomplished by using non-standard clearance phraseology that relies on a published procedure chart for correct interpretation. Eight type-rated flight crews flew eight Precision Descents in a Boeing 747-400 simulator. No training was provided: crews received either a procedure chart or a procedure chart with a flight manual bulletin describing procedure techniques. Video and digital data were recorded for each descent. Preliminary results indicate that moving information from the verbal clearance to the chart was successful: the shorter clearances and the procedure's default crossing restriction were understood, and procedure compliance of 81% was observed across all descents on six independent compliance measures. Some readback errors and procedure misunderstandings were still observed, however; particularly when descent clearances deviated from the normative procedure.

Crane, Barry↗

Rapid adaptation to Coriolis force perturbations of arm trajectory

1. Forward reaching movements made during body rotation generate tangential Coriolis forces that are proportional to the cross product of the angular velocity of rotation and the linear velocity of the arm. Coriolis forces are inertial forces that do not involve mechanical contact. Virtually no constant centrifugal forces will be present in the background when motion of the arm generates transient Coriolis forces if the radius of body rotation is small. 2. We measured the trajectories of arm movements made in darkness to a visual target that was extinguished as movement began. The reaching movements were made prerotation, during rotation at 10 rpm in a fully enclosed rotating room, and postrotation. During testing the subject was seated at the center of the room and pointed radially. Neither visual nor tactile feedback about movement accuracy was present. 3. In experiment 1, subjects reached at a fast or slow rate and their hands made contact with a horizontal surface at the end of the reach. Their initial perrotary movements were highly significantly deviated relative to prerotation in both trajectories and end-points in the direction of the transient Coriolis forces that had been generated during the reaches. Despite the absence of visual and tactile feedback about reaching accuracy, all subjects rapidly regained straight movement trajectories and accurate endpoints. Postrotation, transient errors of opposite sign were present for both trajectories and endpoints. 4. In a second experiment the conditions were identical except that subjects pointed just above the location of the extinguished target so that no surface contact was involved. All subjects showed significant initial perrotation deviations of trajectories and endpoints in the direction of the transient Coriolis forces. With repeated reaches the trajectories, as viewed from above, again became straight, but there was only partial restoration of endpoint accuracy, so that subjects reached in a straight line to the wrong place. Aftereffects of opposite sign were transiently present in the postrotary movements. 5. These observations fail to support current equilibrium point models, both alpha and lambda, of movement control. Such theories would not predict endpoint errors under our experimental conditions, in which the Coriolis force is absent at the beginning and end of a movement. Our results indicate that detailed aspects of movement trajectory are being continuously monitored on the basis of proprioceptive feedback in relation to motor commands. Adaptive compensations can be initiated after one perturbation despite the absence of either visual or tactile feedback about movement trajectory and endpoint error. Moreover, movement trajectory and end-point can be remapped independently.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗

Rate Constant and RRKM Product Study for the Reaction Between CH3 and C2H3 at T = 298K

The total rate constant k1 has been determined at P = 1 Torr nominal pressure (He) and at T = 298 K for the vinyl-methyl cross-radical reaction CH3 + C2H3 yields products. The measurements were performed in a discharge flow system coupled with collision-free sampling to a mass spectrometer operated at low electron energies. Vinyl and methyl radicals were generated by the reactions of F with C2H4 and CH4, respectively. The kinetic studies were performed by monitoring the decay of C2H3 with methyl in excess, 6 < |CH3|(sub 0)/|C2H3|(sub 0) < 21. The overall rate coefficient was determined to be k1(298 K) = (1.02 +/- 0.53)x10(exp -10) cubic cm/molecule/s with the quoted uncertainty representing total errors. Numerical modeling was required to correct for secondary vinyl consumption by reactions such as C2H3 + H and C2H3 + C2H3. The present result for k1 at T = 298 K is compared to two previous studies at high pressure (100-300 Torr He) and to a very recent study at low pressure (0.9-3.7 Torr He). Comparison is also made with the rate constant for the similar reaction CH3 + C2H5 and with a value for k1 estimated by the geometric mean rule employing values for k(CH3 + CH3) and k(C2H3 + C2H3). Qualitative product studies at T = 298 K and 200 K indicated formation of C3H6, C2H2, and C2H5 as products of the combination-stabilization, disproportionation, and combination-decomposition channels, respectively, of the CH3 + C2H3 reaction. We also observed the secondary C4H8 product of the subsequent reaction of C3H5 with excess CH3; this observation provides convincing evidence for the combination-decomposition channel yielding C3H5 + H. RRKM calculations with helium as the deactivator support the present and very recent experimental observations that allylic C-H bond rupture is an important path in the combination reaction. The pressure and temperature dependencies of the branching fractions are also predicted.

Thorn, R. Peyton, Jr.↗