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DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2019

A novel means to flexibly operate a hybrid concentrated solar power plant and improve operation during non-ideal direct normal irradiation conditions

Hybridization of concentrated solar power (CSP) with other energy sources can drastically increase how much solar energy is harnessed and potentially expand the current geographical deployment of CSP installlations. In this study, a novel operation strategy referred to as flexible heat integration (FHI), is proposed and applied to a hybrid CSP-natural gas power plant. The proposed plant, modeled in Simulink, employs a solar central receiver (SCR) and dual-source gas boiler to drive a steam Rankine power cycle. FHI involves collecting and dispatching solar energy at modified temperatures during off-design direct normal irradiance (DNI). During low-grade (<100 W/m 2 ) and medium-grade (100–500 W/m 2 ) levels of DNI, molten salt is used for steam boiling and feedwater preheating, respectively, rather than superheating usually seen in SCR steam plants. Hybrid gas-firing supplies energy to bypassed systems. FHI is applied to a hybrid plant over the course of a day from each season for a plant located in Salt Lake City, Utah, an unconventional location due to off-design DNI variability. A spring day exhibiting variable DNI is used as the main case study to demonstrate the dynamics and robust operation under the FHI framework. The operation of the plant over the winter day shows the largest improvement in solar-to-electric (STE) efficiency whereas the summer day exhibits the smallest improvement. Monthly results follow a similar trend with FHI improving STE from 15.3% and 16.3% to 17.0% and 16.7% in January and July, respectively. Yearly results show FHI improving STE efficiency from 16.1% to 17.1% relative to standard hybrid operation. Altogether, the proposed concept expands the current understanding of energy management in hybrid SCR-natural power plants under non-ideal DNI conditions and locations that have lower DNI by applying FHI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dispatch analysis of flexible power operation with multi-unit small modular reactors

The relevance of nuclear power plant flexible power operation (FPO) is rising due to increased penetration of variable renewables. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) such as NuScale are envisaged to have multiple units on one site. This provides opportunities for coordinating FPO between units, but also introduces challenges as common services (e.g., refueling equipment) must be shared between units and fuel loadings may be standardized. It is therefore important to quantify whether FPO with SMRs is economically beneficial. Here, this paper quantifies the economics of FPO on different timescales to analyze refueling outages of such multi-unit SMRs. A 24-h price-taker profit maximization of SMR operation is first solved considering revenues from wholesale power and ancillary service (AS) markets. The results are then used to find the most profitable operation strategy over several years for multiple units at the site accounting for the physics and materials limits on NPP operation, including refueling outages. Results show a small but appreciable participation of nuclear into AS, contributing 4% of revenues. Due to the longer fuel cycle, over a decade of operation the units’ refueling outages drifted by 3 months, ultimately leading to refueling during summer.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Co-optimization of nuclear reactor flexible power operation and maintenance scheduling

As flexible power operation of nuclear power plants becomes more attractive due to the reduction in fossil-fueled dispatchable generation on energy grids, finding optimal power production strategies that balance revenue generation with operational concerns becomes more complex. This article presents a general framework to aid operators in designing economically optimal long term dispatch strategies for nuclear power plants. The principal novelty is the linking of estimated system remaining useable life (RUL) to strategic operational decisions. It is shown that, depending on the relationship between the fixed costs from maintenance and the associated lost revenue from an outage, it can be economically optimal in the long term to delay a maintenance outage and not perform this alongside refueling. For a given relationship between power ramping and degradation, optimal strategies were found that discouraged load following in some situations while minimizing unnecessary maintenance. It is shown that heavy load following can cause maintenance and refueling outages to diverge due to their inverse relationships with respect to load following, potentially leading to a significant loss in capacity factor. As a result, this general framework can be applied to specific reactor dispatch allowing operators to adapt operational strategies as future grid conditions change.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building and grid system benefits of demand flexibility and energy efficiency

The global electricity system is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Technology advancements in clean energy generation (e.g., solar photovoltaics and wind) and electrified demand (e.g., transportation and building heating) are providing a cost-competitive pathway to mitigate the urgent and severe consequences associated with a changing climate. In addition, as extreme events continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, solutions are needed for adapting to the current climate. Through energy efficiency and demand flexibility, buildings play a prominent role in meeting these challenges; recently in Joule, a paper by Langevin et al. provides clear insight into the magnitude of buildings’ technical potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bio-inspired redox mediated electrolyte for high performance flexible supercapacitor applications over broad temperature domain

For practical supercapacitors, recent advances in electrolytes have diminished long-standing problems such chemical stability, low ionic conductivity and limited electrochemical performance. Herewith, we communicate a facile method to produce anhydrous redox-active Bio-inspired electrolytes for flexible supercapacitors with application over a broad temperature range. The glycerol (Gly) gel electrolyte consists of various fractions of potassium hydroxide (KOH) and redox active unit, i.e., ammonium molybdate, (NH 4 ) 2 MoO 4 (abbreviated as Mo), in the anhydrous state. The doped glycerol matrix acts as a framework that provides a stable gel electrolyte, forming hierarchical pathway for ion diffusion. The developed gel network with Gly-KOH-MoX (X = 3, 5, 10, and 15%, w/w) provides an effective route to carry the ions onto the pores of the electrodes. The supercapacitor with Gly-KOH5-Mo10 gel provides a specific capacitance of 328 F g –1 , and the same device achieved an energy density of 45.6 Wh kg –1 at a power density of 497 W kg –1 . In addition, the supercapacitor maintained extraordinary cyclic robustness and wide temperature tolerance. Thus, the low cost and environmentally benign, cyclic durability of Gly-KOH-Mo makes these gel electrolytes a potential candidate for use in various energy storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wastepaper-derived porous carbon supported cobalt nanocomposites for all solid-state flexible supercapacitor

The conversion of wastepaper into high-value carbon materials has gained significant attention as a sustainable strategy for energy storage applications. Owing to its low cost, abundance, and intrinsic fibrous structure, wastepaper serves as an attractive precursor for carbon-based electrode materials. In this work, a novel electrode comprising cobalt nanoparticles and Co 3 O 4 embedded in wastepaper-derived porous carbon has been developed for use in a flexible all-solid-state asymmetric supercapacitor. The integration of cobalt nanoparticles and Co 3 O 4 introduces redox-active centres, which enhance the electrochemical activity of the carbon framework. Mean while, the interconnected porous and conductive carbon network enables rapid ion diffusion and efficient electron transport, synergistically improving the overall electrochemical performance. It delivers a high specific capacitance of 61.5 Fg -1 , a power density of 5143 W kg -1 , and an energy density of 9 Wh kg -1 at a current density of 2.5 A/ g. Furthermore, the device maintains outstanding cycling stability, retaining 82.86 % of its capacitance after 10,000 charge-discharge cycles. Practical applicability is confirmed through its ability to power

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic and environmental feasibility of recycling flexible plastic packaging from single stream collection

As demand for plastic increases, there is an urgent need to ramp up its collection and recycling rate. This study reports results of a pilot study in the United States to recycle flexible plastic packaging (FPP) from single stream curbside collection focusing on both the economic feasibility and carbon footprint. To explore the marketability of recycled FPP, four down-stream market pathways were studied, including roof coverboard, plastic pellets, pallets, and film. In this work, results indicated that (1) the cleaning and pelletizing process at reclaimers contributed the most to the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of recycled FPP products, and (2) the GHG emissions of recycled FPP products in all four pathways are lower than the comparator products. Therefore, using a higher percentage of recycled FPP substituted in a product can result in greater GHG emission reductions. All the recycled FPP products also showed favorable economics compared to their direct competitors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aggregate residential demand flexibility behavior: A novel assessment framework

Residential demand flexibility (DF) could save the U.S. electric grid up to 10 GW of peak demand while supporting increased amounts of renewable generation. However, less than 40% of the estimated DF peak reduction capacity is currently realized, and less than 8% of American households are enrolled. These low participation rates are combined with high rates of "overriding" a DF event and eventual opt-outs among enrolled customers. There is still not a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of DF participation and occupant interaction with DF program signals. We, therefore, present a novel survey processing framework to assess occupant DF-relevant behavior from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). Using the framework, we summarize both the extensive and intensive behavior of more than 200,000 ATUS respondents (2003-2018 data) and provide insights on the DF-relevant behavior of residential occupants, which is generally overlooked in the literature. Here we use the framework to identify the activity priorities of residential occupants in the United States during different DF-relevant periods (critical peak, peak, and off-peak). These preferred activities capture overlooked routine behaviors that could be barriers to DF participation, if ignored, and might explain the high levels of overrides often exhibited by participants of demand response.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexible transparent conducting electrodes unexpectedly influence MAPbI 3 film morphology and perovskite solar cell performance

Fabricating perovskite solar cells (PSCs) on plastic substrates will enable cost-effective manufacturing of lightweight and portable energy systems. Here, we study the influence of flexible transparent conductive electrodes (TCEs) on the methylammonium lead iodide (MAPbI3) film morphology and PSC performance. Three types of TCEs on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) are compared: a custom-made AgNWs/indium zinc oxide hybrid TCE and two commercial substrates with indium tin oxide (ITO) or metal/insulator/metal (MIM) as the TCE. Using the same p-i-n architecture and hole transport layer (HTL), we find that PSCs fabricated on the hybrid TCE show better performance and stability compared to those made on commercial TCEs. The PSC performance enhancement is attributed to the superior structural and optical properties of MAPbI3 film deposited on the hybrid TCE, which is explained by the surface energy difference of the HTL. While it is anticipated that solar cell performance can be affected by TCEs’ transmittance and sheet resistance as they determine light absorption and carrier transport, respectively, our finding of TCE influencing the morphology and crystallinity of MAPbI3 film, and hence PSC performance, is unexpected.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An All-Ceramic, Anisotropic, and Flexible Aerogel Insulation Material

To exploit the high-temperature superinsulation potential of anisotropic thermal management materials, the incorporation of ceramic aerogel into the aligned structural networks is indispensable. Yet, the long-standing obstacle to exploring ultralight superinsulation ceramic aerogels is the inaccessibility of its mechanical elasticity, stability, and anisotropic thermal insulation. Here, we report a recoverable, flexible ceramic fiber-aerogel composite with anisotropic lamellar structure, where the interfacial cross-linking between ceramic fiber and aerogel is important in its superinsulation performance. The resulting ultralight aerogel composite exhibits a density of 0.05 g/cm 3 , large strain recovery (over 50%), and low thermal conductivity (0.0224 W m –1 K –1 ), while its hydrophobicity is achieved by in situ trichlorosilane coating with the water contact angle of 135°. The hygroscopic tests of such aerogel composites demonstrate a reversible thermal insulation. The mechanical elasticity and stability of the anisotropic composites, with its soundproof performance, shed light on the low-cost superelastic aerogel manufacturing with scalability for energy saving building applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mid-Infrared Intersubband Cavity Polaritons in Flexible Single Quantum Well

Strong and ultrastrong coupling between intersubband transitions in quantum wells and cavity photons have been realized in mid-infrared and terahertz spectral regions. However, most previous works employed a large number of quantum wells on rigid substrates to achieve coupling strengths reaching the strong or ultrastrong coupling regime. In this work, we experimentally demonstrate ultrastrong coupling between the intersubband transition in a single quantum well and the resonant mode of photonic nanocavity at room temperature. We also observe strong coupling between the nanocavity resonance and the second-order intersubband transition in a single quantum well. Furthermore, we implement for the first time such intersubband cavity polariton systems on soft and flexible substrates and demonstrate that bending of the single quantum well does not significantly affect the characteristics of the cavity polaritons. Here this work paves the way to broaden the range of potential applications of intersubband cavity polaritons including soft and wearable photonics.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flexible Zn-MOF with Rare Underlying scu Topology for Effective Separation of C6 Alkane Isomers

Adsorptive separation by porous solids provides an energy-efficient alternative for the purification of important chemical species compared to energy-intensive distillations. Particularly, the separation of linear hexane isomers from its branched counterparts is crucial to produce premium grade gasoline with high research octane number (RON). Herein, we report the synthesis of a new, flexible zinc-based metal-organic framework, [Zn 5 (μ 3 -OH) 2 (adtb) 2 (H 2 O) 5 ·5 DMA] (Zn-adtb), constructed from a butterfly shaped carboxylate linker with underlying (4,8)-connected scu topology capable of separating the C6 isomers nHEX, 3MP, and 23DMB. The sorbate-sorbent interactions and separation mechanisms were investigated and analyzed through in situ FTIR, solid state NMR measurements and computational modeling. Here these studies reveal that Zn-adtb discriminates the nHEX/3MP isomer pair through a kinetic separation mechanism and the nHEX/23DMB isomer pair through a molecular sieving mechanism. Column breakthrough measurements further demonstrate the efficient separation of linear nHEX from the mono- and dibranched isomers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tailoring the structural durability and proton conductivity of electrolytes for highly fuel-flexible and reversible ceramic cells

A durable and high ionic conducting electrolyte is critical for achieving fuel-flexible and reversible protonic ceramic cells (PCCs) at reduced temperatures since the developed electrolyte materials are vulnerable to steam, CO 2 , or coking deterioration. Here, we report a fast-conducting electrolyte material BaZr 0.06 Ce 0.7 Y 0.06 Yb 0.06 Hf 0.06 Gd 0.06 O 3−δ (BZCYYbHG), demonstrating excellent durability against CO 2 and H 2 O under the realistic electrolysis operations, and a high conductivity of 0.017 S cm −1 at 550 °C for lowering the PCC operating temperature. Further, density functional theory calculations indicate that the higher configurational entropy of mixing at the B-site cations slightly reduces the hydrogen adsorption energy, suggesting a higher incorporation rate of protons or hydrogen atoms into the electrolyte bulk. Ultimately, single cells with the BZCYYbHG electrolyte deliver peak power densities of 1.39, 1.12, and 0.7 W cm −2 in H 2 , NH 3 , and wet CH 4 at 550 °C with promising durability. In addition, the PCCs achieve a current density of −1.61 A cm −2 at 1.3 V and 550 °C with a high faradaic efficiency of 91.3% at −0.5 A cm −2 , enabling stable operations in steam electrolysis mode under humid air (30% H 2 O), wet air containing CO 2 (up to 10%), and reversible cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct ink write multi-material printing of PDMS-BTO composites with MWCNT electrodes for flexible force sensors

Here, with recent advances of additive manufacturing technology, direct ink write (DIW) printing has allowed to incorporate multi-material printing of various materials with freedom of design and complex geometric shapes to complete functional sensors in a one-step fabrication. This paper introduces the use of DIW 3D printing of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) with barium titanate (BTO) filler as stretchable composites with tunable piezoelectric properties that can be used for force sensors applications. To improve the bonding between stretchable piezoelectric composites and electrodes, multi-walled carbon nanotubes was included in the fabrication of electrodes at a fixed ratio of 11 wt. %. The alignment of the BTO dipoles was achieved through corona poling method, which applies an electric charge on the surface layer of the functional material, aligning the dipoles in the desired direction and thus gaining the piezoelectricity. Different BTO mixing ratios (10–50 wt. %) were evaluated in order to obtain tunable piezoelectric properties and compare the sensitivity with respect their elastic properties. Tensile testing and piezoelectric testing were carried out to characterize mechanical and piezoelectric properties. Results showed that fabricated PDMS with 50 wt. % BTO gave the highest piezoelectric coefficient (d 33 ) of 11.5 pC N -1 and with an output voltage of 385 mV under compression loading of >200 lbF. This demonstrates feasibility of using multi-material DIW printing to fabricate piezoelectric force sensors with integrated electrodes in one-step without compromising the flexibility of the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexible PCB Windings Size Optimization for Winding AC Resistance Minimization Under the Sinusoidal Voltage Regime

In this paper, optimization of the winding AC resistance of the flexible printed circuit board (FPCB) wire windings is performed. A one-dimensional model of the FPCB winding is introduced and an equation for the FPCB winding AC resistance and its low and medium frequency approximation are derived. The approximate FPCB winding AC resistance equation is used to derive optimum thickness of the FPCB winding conductor thickness at which minimum of winding AC resistance (global optimum) is achieved. The Finite Element Method analysis and experimental verification of derived equations (winding resistance, impedance, power loss, and temperature measurements) is performed in order validate derived model and winding resistance equation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. Here, this paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Highly Accelerated UV Stress Testing for Transparent Flexible Frontsheets

There are many photovoltaic (PV) applications where lighter weight and/or bendable PV power would be beneficial. This includes the curved surfaces of buildings, buildings with weight limitations, boats, automobiles, or other portable applications. In many of these cases, the bending will be only a single occurrence at installation or the amount of bending, even if repeated, is not dramatic. This allows for crystalline silicon modules to be used. For flexible applications, the dominant material for the frontsheet is polyethylene tetrafluoroethylene (PETFE). As a fluoropolymer it resists soiling, is UV stable, and PETFE is a more mechanically durable fluoropolymer. However, in the interests of keeping costs down, less expensive alternative polymers are desirable. In this study, highly accelerated ultraviolet light and heat stresses are applied to candidate materials and the degradation kinetics are determined to provide information to evaluate their suitability for use in a PV application.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗