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DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

DOE OSTI2013

Optimization Using Metamodeling in the Context of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)

Predictive Design Technologies, LLC (PDT) proposed to employ Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools to help the manufacturing industry in the United States regain the competitive advantage in the global economy. ICME uses computational materials science tools within a holistic system in order to accelerate materials development, improve design optimization, and unify design and manufacturing. With the advent of accurate modeling and simulation along with significant increases in high performance computing (HPC) power, virtual design and manufacturing using ICME tools provide the means to reduce product development time and cost by alleviating costly trial-and-error physical design iterations while improving overall quality and manufacturing efficiency. To reduce the computational cost necessary for the large-scale HPC simulations and to make the methodology accessible for small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), metamodels are employed. Metamodels are approximate models (functional relationships between input and output variables) that can reduce the simulation times by one to two orders of magnitude. In Phase I, PDT, partnered with Mississippi State University (MSU), demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed methodology by employing MSU?s internal state variable (ISV) plasticity-damage model with the help of metamodels to optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost for tube manufacturing processes used by Plymouth Tube Company (PTC), which involves complicated temperature and mechanical loading histories. PDT quantified the microstructure-property relationships for PTC?s SAE J525 electric resistance-welded cold drawn low carbon hydraulic 1010 steel tube manufacturing processes at seven different material states and calibrated the ISV plasticity material parameters to fit experimental tensile stress-strain curves. PDT successfully performed large scale finite element (FE) simulations in an HPC environment using the ISV plasticity model in Abaqus FE analyses of the tube forming, sizing, drawing, welding, and normalizing processes. The simulation results coupled with the manufacturing cost data were used to develop prototype metamodeling (quick response) codes which could be used to predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. The developed ICME metamodeling toolkits are flexible enough to be applied to other manufacturing processes (e.g. forging, forming, casting, extrusion, rolling, stamping, and welding/joining) and metamodeling codes can run on laptop computers. Based on the work completed in Phase I, in Phase II, PDT proposes to continue to refine the ISV model by correlating and incorporating the uncertainties in the microstructure, mechanical testing, and modeling. Following the model refinement, FE analyses will be simulated and will provide even more realistic predictions as they include an appropriate window of uncertainty. Using the HPC output (FE analyses) as input, the quick-response metamodel codes will more accurately predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. Furthermore, PDT propose to employ the ICME metamodeling toolkits to help develop a new tube product using entirely new high strength steel. The modeling of the high strength steel manufacturing process will replace the costly and time consuming trial-and-error methods that were used in the tubing industry previously. This simulation-based process prototyping will greatly benefit our industrial partners by opening up new market spaces due to new products with greater capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Towards automated support for extraction of reusable components

A cost effective introduction of software reuse techniques requires the reuse of existing software developed in many cases without aiming at reusability. This paper discusses the problems related to the analysis and reengineering of existing software in order to reuse it. We introduce a process model for component extraction and focus on the problem of analyzing and qualifying software components which are candidates for reuse. A prototype tool for supporting the extraction of reusable components is presented. One of the components of this tool aids in understanding programs and is based on the functional model of correctness. It can assist software engineers in the process of finding correct formal specifications for programs. A detailed description of this component and an example to demonstrate a possible operational scenario are given.

Abd-El-hafiz, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Towards automated support for extraction of reusable components

Abd-El-hafiz, S. K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigating 3,4-bis(3-nitrofurazan-4-yl)furoxan detonation with a rapidly tuned density functional tight binding model

In this work, we describe a machine learning approach to rapidly tune density functional tight binding models for the description of detonation chemistry in organic molecular materials. Resulting models enable simulations on the several 10s of ps scales characteristic to these processes, with “quantum-accuracy.” We use this approach to investigate early shock chemistry in 3,4-bis(3-nitrofurazan-4-yl)furoxan, a hydrogen-free energetic material known to form onion-like nanocarbon particulates following detonation. We find that the ensuing chemistry is significantly characterized by the formation of large C x N y O z species, which are likely precursors to the experimentally observed carbon condensates. Beyond utility as a means of investigating detonation chemistry, the present approach can be used to generate quantum-based reference data for the development of full machine-learned interatomic potentials capable of simulation on even greater time and length scales, i.e., for applications where characteristic time scales exceed the reach of methods including Kohn–Sham density functional theory, which are commonly used for reference data generation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Semi-Automated Creation of Density Functional Tight Binding Models through Leveraging Chebyshev Polynomial-Based Force Fields

Density functional tight binding (DFTB) is an attractive method for accelerated quantum simulations of condensed matter due to its enhanced computational efficiency over standard density functional theory (DFT) approaches. However, DFTB models can be challenging to determine for individual systems of interest, especially for metallic and interfacial systems where different bonding arrangements can lead to significant changes in electronic states. In this regard, we have created a rapid-screening approach for determining systematically improvable DFTB interaction potentials that can yield transferable models for a variety of conditions. Our method leverages a recent reactive molecular dynamics force field where many-body interactions are represented by linear combinations of Chebyshev polynomials. This allows for the efficient creation of multi-center representations with relative ease, requiring only a small investment in initial DFT calculations. Here, we have focused our workflow on TiH 2 as a model system and show that a relatively small training set based on unit-cell-sized calculations yields a model accurate for both bulk and surface properties. Our approach is easy to implement and can yield reliable DFTB models over a broad range of thermodynamic conditions, where physical and chemical properties can be difficult to interrogate directly and there is historically a significant reliance on theoretical approaches for interpretation and validation of experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1976

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

Turner, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting synthetic mRNA stability using massively parallel kinetic measurements, biophysical modeling, and machine learning

Abstract mRNA degradation is a central process that affects all gene expression levels, though it remains challenging to predict the stability of a mRNA from its sequence, due to the many coupled interactions that control degradation rate. Here, we carried out massively parallel kinetic decay measurements on over 50,000 bacterial mRNAs, using a learn-by-design approach to develop and validate a predictive sequence-to-function model of mRNA stability. mRNAs were designed to systematically vary translation rates, secondary structures, sequence compositions, G-quadruplexes, i-motifs, and RppH activity, resulting in mRNA half-lives from about 20 seconds to 20 minutes. We combined biophysical models and machine learning to develop steady-state and kinetic decay models of mRNA stability with high accuracy and generalizability, utilizing transcription rate models to identify mRNA isoforms and translation rate models to calculate ribosome protection. Overall, the developed model quantifies the key interactions that collectively control mRNA stability in bacterial operons and predicts how changing mRNA sequence alters mRNA stability, which is important when studying and engineering bacterial genetic systems.

Cetnar, Daniel P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Personalized optimization with user’s feedback

Not Available

Simonetto, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS2014

Recent Developments and Challenges Implementing New and Improved Stress Intensity Factor (K) Solutions in NASGRO for Damage Tolerance Analyses

Fatigue crack growth analysis software has been available to damage tolerance analysts for many years in either commercial products or via proprietary in-house codes. The NASGRO software has been publicly available since the mid-80s (known as NASA/FLAGRO up to 1999) and since 2000 has been sustained and further developed by a collaborative effort between Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), and the members of the NASGRO Industrial Consortium. Since the stress intensity factor (K) is the foundation of fracture mechanics and damage tolerance analysis of aircraft structures, a significant focus of development efforts in the past fifteen years has been geared towards enhancing legacy K solutions and developing new and efficient numerical K solutions that can handle the complicated stress gradients computed by today’s analysts using detailed finite element models of fatigue critical locations. This paper provides an overview of K solutions that have been recently implemented or improved for the analysis of geometries such as two unequal through cracks at a hole and two unequal corner cracks at a hole, as well as state-of-the-art weight function models capable of computing K in the presence of univariant and/or bivariant stress gradients and complicated residual stress distributions. Some historical background is provided to review how common K solutions have evolved over the years, including selective examples from the literature and from new research. Challenges and progress in rectifying discrepancies between older legacy solutions and newer models are reviewed as well as approaches and challenges for verification and validation of K solutions. Finally, a summary of current challenges and future research and development needs is presented. A key theme throughout the presentation of this paper will be how members of the aerospace industry have collaborated with software developers to develop a practical analysis tool that is used world-wide to support new design as well as the ongoing sustainment and airworthiness of commercial and military aircraft.

Cardinal, Joseph W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Neutronics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding neutronic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of applicants’ calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., power distribution, fluence, kinetics parameters and reactivity). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational and Experimental Study for the Denitrification of Biomass-Derived Hydrothermal Liquefaction Oil

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising method for processing wet biomass and waste feedstock to produce biofuels. During the HTL process, proteins and other biomolecules in certain feedstock get converted into nitrogenous compounds in produced biocrude, which represents a major challenge to further upgrading them into fuels. One promising approach is to separate nitrogenous compounds from the biocrude using polymeric resins. In this study, experiments were conducted to down-select sorbent and resin systems using a nitrogen-compound-containing surrogate biocrude. We model the binding interactions between an Amberlyst polymeric resin with various compounds present in the biocrude mixture such as nitrogenous compounds like pyrrole, pyridine, hexanamide, and representative co-existing compounds like phenol and dodecanoic acid. To ascertain the efficiency of various resins in the denitrogenation process, we have developed a quantitative structure–function model for the interacting components in the mixture. Our results suggest that the Amberlyst resin is a viable candidate for efficient removal of target nitrogen-containing compounds (such as pyridine) from the biocrude as a result of favorable interactions. The computational studies provide some insight into how and why the identified resin (Amberlyst) works in selective extraction of nitrogenous compound(s).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermal-Hydraulics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding thermalhydraulic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of an applicant’s calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., salt temperature, velocity, and composition). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

Experimental Definition and Validation of Protein Coding Transcripts in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

Algal fuel sources promise unsurpassed yields in a carbon neutral manner that minimizes resource competition between agriculture and fuel crops. Many challenges must be addressed before algal biofuels can be accepted as a component of the fossil fuel replacement strategy. One significant challenge is that the cost of algal fuel production must become competitive with existing fuel alternatives. Algal biofuel production presents the opportunity to fine-tune microbial metabolic machinery for an optimal blend of biomass constituents and desired fuel molecules. Genome-scale model-driven algal metabolic design promises to facilitate both goals by directing the utilization of metabolites in the complex, interconnected metabolic networks to optimize production of the compounds of interest. Using Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as a model, we developed a systems-level methodology bridging metabolic network reconstruction with annotation and experimental verification of enzyme encoding open reading frames. We reconstructed a genome-scale metabolic network for this alga and devised a novel light-modeling approach that enables quantitative growth prediction for a given light source, resolving wavelength and photon flux. We experimentally verified transcripts accounted for in the network and physiologically validated model function through simulation and generation of new experimental growth data, providing high confidence in network contents and predictive applications. The network offers insight into algal metabolism and potential for genetic engineering and efficient light source design, a pioneering resource for studying light-driven metabolism and quantitative systems biology. Our approach to generate a predictive metabolic model integrated with cloned open reading frames, provides a cost-effective platform to generate metabolic engineering resources. While the generated resources are specific to algal systems, the approach that we have developed is not specific to algae and can be readily expanded to other microbial systems as well as higher plants and animals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Thermal-Hydraulic and Neutronic Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

In this paper, we discuss liquid-fuel molten salt (cooled) reactors (MSRs); how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions; and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding thermal-hydraulic and neutronic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), U.S. Department of Energy, and industry to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory and licensing analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of an applicant's calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. The NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel comprising a group of subject matter experts met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures of merit (FoMs) (e.g., salt temperature, velocity, and composition). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs, with an emphasis on the thermal-hydraulic takeaways. It was concluded that compared to light water reactors, the lack of high-pressure operation, energetic break flow, depressurization, and quench front tracking may simplify some aspects of an MSR analysis. However, MSRs have new phenomena both for a license applicant and NRC confirmatory analysis. There is a need for enhanced understanding of physical properties for MSRs that encompass several individual thermophysical properties, including thermal conductivity, viscosity, specific heat, density, optical properties, thermodynamic properties, volatilities, solubilities, etc. Salt composition is closely linked to both these properties and the neutronics of the system. Additionally, the large number of MSR concepts and system designs means that there is wide variation in the potential modeling needs for these systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Approximating high-dimensional dynamics by barycentric coordinates with linear programming

The increasing development of novel methods and techniques facilitates the measurement of high-dimensional time series but challenges our ability for accurate modeling and predictions. The use of a general mathematical model requires the inclusion of many parameters, which are difficult to be fitted for relatively short high-dimensional time series observed. Here, we propose a novel method to accurately model a high-dimensional time series. Our method extends the barycentric coordinates to high-dimensional phase space by employing linear programming, and allowing the approximation errors explicitly. The extension helps to produce free-running time-series predictions that preserve typical topological, dynamical, and/or geometric characteristics of the underlying attractors more accurately than the radial basis function model that is widely used. The method can be broadly applied, from helping to improve weather forecasting, to creating electronic instruments that sound more natural, and to comprehensively understanding complex biological data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗