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At least 469 records · Page 26

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Abstract Seasonal snow is an integral part of the global water supply and storage system. Snow droughts impact ecological, agricultural, and urban systems by altering the amount and timing of meltwater delivery. These droughts are characterized by a lack of on-the-ground snow (snow water equivalent, SWE) that can be caused by low total precipitation (dry drought) or low proportion of precipitation falling as snowfall (warm drought), often combined with an early melt. The standardized SWE index (SWEI) ranks the current status of SWE for a given location compared to a baseline condition and identifies the existence, but not the cause, of snow drought. In this work, we use estimates of SWE, temperature, and precipitation from nine coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to quantify the frequency, severity, and type of snow droughts globally for historical and future scenarios. Compared to a historical baseline (1850–1900) total snow drought frequency more than doubles under socio-economic pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; all of the increase in snow drought frequency comes from an increase in warm droughts. The probability distribution of future SWEI in major snowy basins around the world are likely to be centered on more negative values, which corresponds to more severe drought and, with only moderate changes in distribution spread, more frequent drought. CMIP6 simulations pinpoint snow drought as an emerging global threat to water resources and highlight the need to explore higher resolution future models that better capture complex mountain topography, wildland fires, and snow-forest interactions.

CMIP6↗

Sodium Fire Collaborative Study Progress -- CNWG Fiscal Year 2020

This report discusses the progress on the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) on the sodium fire research in fiscal year 2020. First, the current sodium pool fire model in MELCOR, which is adapted from CONTAIN-LMR code, is discussed. The associated sodium fire input requirements are also presented. These input requirements are flexible enough to permit further model development via control functions to enhance the current model without modifying the source code. The theoretical pool fire model improvement developed at Sandia is discussed. A control function model has been developed from this improvement. Then, the validation study of the sodium pool fire model in MELCOR carried out by both Sandia and JAEA’s staff is described. To validate this pool fire model with the enhancement, a JAEA sodium pool fire experiment (F7-1 test) is used. The results of the calculation are discussed as well as suggestions for further model improvement. Finally, recommendations are made for new MELCOR simulations for next fiscal year, 2021.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Plasma expansion and relativistic filamentation in intense laser-irradiated cone targets

We report that compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) cone targets have been shown to produce increased MeV photons on the NIF-ARC by 10× over flat targets. Multiple x-ray frames can potentially be generated by firing the NIF-ARC's beamlets into distinct cone targets at few nanosecond relative delays. This requires that the cone targets with delayed beams are not degraded by their proximity to previous targets. One concern is that the spatial wings of a beam fired into one target can fall on neighboring targets, producing a preformed plasma that may interfere with laser light reaching the tip of the cone. In this work, 3D hydra simulations of realistic targets and beam parameters show that hundreds of micrometer scale length preplasmas are produced in cones within 1 mm of the laser spot. 2D particle-in-cell simulations of the intense main pulse in this preplasma indicate a density threshold for the onset of relativistic filamentation in our conditions. Applying our modeling approach to a NIF-ARC shot with an intentional 15 J prepulse yields good agreement with experimental results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Representative-Sandwich Model for Mechanical-Crush and Short-Circuit Simulation of Lithium-ion Batteries

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the state-of-the-art power sources for a variety of applications, from consumer electronic devices to electric-drive vehicles (EDVs). Being an energized component, failure of the battery is an essential concern, which can result in rupture, smoke, fire, or venting. The failure of Lithium-ion batteries can be due to a number of external abusive conditions (impact/crush, overcharge, thermal ramp, etc.) or internal conditions (internal short circuits, excessive heating due to resistance build-up, etc.), of which the mechanical-abuse-induced short circuit is a very practical problem. In order to better understand the behavior of Lithium-ion batteries under mechanical abuse, a coupled modeling methodology encompassing the mechanical, thermal and electrical response has been developed for predicting short circuit under external crush.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Solution-based approaches for making high-density sodalite waste forms to immobilize spent electrochemical salts

Three different solution-based approaches were taken to make sodalite minerals as a host for a mixed salt simulating the waste generated during the electrochemical separations process of nuclear fuel reprocessing that contains alkali, alkaline earth, and lanthanide chlorides plus trace iodine and actinides. All of the approaches included an aqueous solution of mixed chlorides (simulated waste) but the other reactants varied: (1) Al(OH)3 + NaOH + CS, (2) NaAlO2 + CS, and (3) Al2Si2O7 + NaOH, (CS = colloidal silica). The products were dried, ground, pressed into pellets, fired (650–950 °C), and characterized. Both 5 and 10 mass% of a Si-Na-B glass binder were introduced at different stages in the process. Route (2) proved the most successful at producing high sodalite fractions (up to 100%) with minimal glass binder additions and showed high consolidation potential (up to 91.4% of theoretical density). Detailed comparisons are provided of the results.

electrochemical↗

Relaxation of a Spiking Mott Artificial Neuron

We consider the phenomenon of electric Mott transition (EMT), which is an electrically induced insulator-to-metal transition. Experimentally, it is observed that depending on the magnitude of the electric excitation, the final state may show a short-lived or a long-lived resistance change. We extend a previous model for the EMT to include the effect of local structural distortions through an elastic energy term. We find that by strong electric pulsing, the induced metastable phase may become further stabilized by the electroelastic effect. We present a systematic study of the model by numerical simulations and compare the results to experiments in Mott insulators of the AM 4 Q 8 family. Our work significantly extends the scope of our recently introduced leaky-integrate-and-fire Mott neuron [P. Stoliar et al., Adv. Funct. Mat. 27, 1604740 (2017)] to provide a better insight into the physical mechanism of its relaxation. This is a key feature for future implementations of neuromorphic circuits.

bio-inspired↗

Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework and Remote Sensing

Wildfire as one type of climate extreme events causes huge socioeconomic losses and damages. Large wildfires (i.e., generated pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)) can inject tremendous amounts of smoke into the stratosphere, where black carbon and organic carbon aerosols can persist months to years and influence climate by imposing a significant reduction in the radiative forcing like that associated with large volcanic eruptions or proposed via climate interventions such as geoengineering. Both observations and numerical modeling results clearly indicate an increasing trend in wildfire frequency and intensity in many regions during the recent decades with climate change. However, current understanding of wildfire remains largely uncertain owing to limitations of modeling capabilities in representing the multiscale wildfire physics and dynamics and a scarcity of observations constraining important wildfire and environmental variables. This study primarily aims to improve the wildfire simulation capabilities in the state-of-the-art climate model by filling in two major gaps: (1) model resolution is typically too coarse to resolve fine scale processes associated with fires, and (2) chemistry and aerosol processes in fire smoke are poorly represented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A miniature electron ionization source fabricated using microelectromechanical systems ($\mathrm{MEMS}$) with integrated carbon nanotube ($\mathrm{CNT}$) field emission cathodes and low-temperature co-fired ceramics ($\mathrm{LTCC}$)

The use of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) components in miniature mass spectrometers is particularly attractive due to their small size and scalable manufacturing capability. Our group has pioneered the development of miniature electron ionization sources combining MEMS fabricated structures with integrated carbon nanotube (CNT) cold-cathode field emitters. However, until now they have been of limited use due to the limited ability to direct the ions into a mass analyzer. In this work, we design a miniature ion source using a microfabricated MEMS device and a low temperature co-fired ceramic (LTCC) carrier that includes electrical connections, ion optics for directing ions out of the device, and a sample inlet. Here we present the design and fabrication of the ion source; simulate the energy and angular dispersion; and experimentally determine the energy and angular dispersion.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Radiation asymmetries during disruptions on DIII-D caused by massive gas injection

One of the major challenges that the ITER tokamak will have to face during its operations are disruptions. During the last few years, it has been proven that the global consequences of a disruption can be mitigated by the injection of large quantities of impurities. But one aspect that has been difficult to study was the possibility of local effects inside the torus during such injection that could damage a portion of the device despite the global heat losses and generated currents remaining below design parameter. 3D MHD simulations show that there is a potential for large toroidal asymmetries of the radiated power during impurity injection due to the interaction between the particle injection plume and a large n = 1 mode. Another aspect of 3D effects is the potential occurrence of Vertical Displacement Events (VDE), which could induce large poloidal heat load asymmetries. This potential deleterious effect of 3D phenomena has been studied on the DIII-D tokamak, thanks to the implementation of a multi-location massive gas injection (MGI) system as well as new diagnostic capabilities. This study showed the existence of a correlation between the location of the n = 1 mode and the local heat load on the plasma facing components but shows also that this effect is much smaller than anticipated (peaking factor of ∼1.1 vs 3-4 according to the simulations). There seems to be no observable heat load on the first wall of DIII-D at the location of the impurity injection port as well as no significant radiation asymmetries whether one or 2 valves are fired. This study enabled the first attempt of mitigation of a VDE using impurity injection at different poloidal locations. The results showed a more favorable heat deposition when the VDE is mitigated early (right at the onset) by impurity injection. No significant improvement of the heat load mitigation efficiency has been observed for late particle injection whether the injection is done “in the way” of the VDE (upward VDE mitigated by injection from the upper part of the vessel vs the lower part) or not.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Coordinated Scheduling for Interdependent Electric Power and Natural Gas Infrastructures

The extensive installation of gas-fired power plants in many parts of the world has led electric systems to depend heavily on reliable gas supplies. The use of gas-fired generators for peak load and reserve provision causes high intraday variability in withdrawals from high-pressure gas transmission systems. Such variability can lead to gas price fluctuations and supply disruptions that affect electric generator dispatch, electricity prices, and threaten the security of power systems and gas pipelines. These infrastructures function on vastly different spatio-temporal scales, which prevents current practices for separate operations and market clearing from being coordinated. Here in this article, we apply new techniques for control of dynamic gas flows on pipeline networks to examine day-ahead scheduling of electric generator dispatch and gas compressor operation for different levels of integration, spanning from separate forecasting, and simulation to combined optimal control. We formulate multiple coordination scenarios and develop tractable physically accurate computational implementations. These scenarios are compared using an integrated model of test networks for power and gas systems with 24 nodes and 24 pipes, respectively, which are coupled through gas-fired generators. The analysis quantifies the economic efficiency and security benefits of gas-electric coordination and dynamic gas system operation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Modular Adaptive Packing for Integrally Cooled Absorbers

Process intensification is one cornerstone in ION Clean Energy’s (ION) efforts to lowering CO2 capture cost. ION has modeled, designed, and fabricated an innovative gas-liquid contactor known as Modular Adaptive Packing (MAP). During two successful SBIR Phase I and II projects entitled: “Rapid Design and Testing of Novel Gas-Liquid Contacting Devices for Post-Combustion CO2 Capture via 3D-printing”, ION developed and proved this new technology at bench scale. MAP, a 3D-printed lattice-structured packing, combines the absorber gas/liquid contactor with an innovative in-situ heat-exchanger. Thanks to the capabilities of 3D-printing, the lattice structure of MAP contains hollow channels through which coolant water can be pumped to remove the heat of reaction from CO2 absorption. ION refers to this novel method of heat exchange as intracooling. After 25.4 cm (10 in) diameter MAP modules were fabricated, ION built and tested a packing characterization rig at its pilot facility in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. To provide baseline results for the characterization rig, ION tested Sulzer’s Mellapak™ 250Y (MP250Y) as a standard structured packing. ION’s MAP was then compared directly to the baseline MP250Y packing to evaluate key indicators including pressure drop, liquid hold-up, and effective area. MAP has a higher pressure drop than MP250Y at the same gas velocities in addition to greater liquid holdup. However, ION found that MAP displays a higher wetting coverage of 93% compared to 65% for MP250Y and reduces shearing forces that result in undesirable droplet formation. Using Optimized Gas Treating’s (OGT) rate-based simulation software ProTreat®, a conceptual evaluation of MAP was modeled for a CO2 absorber using 30 wt% MEA solvent over a range of lean loadings at 90% CO2 capture from a coal-fired power plant. ION modeled a 25-meter column absorber for both the standard MP250Y packing and a hybrid column. The hybrid absorber contained 10 m of MP250Y packing at the top and bottom with the middle 5 meters comprised of MAP. Compared to a traditional intercooled absorber, MAP can remove 22% more heat and increase overall MEA carrying capacity by 4% without increasing overall pressure drop.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New insights into the mechanism governing the elasticity of calcium silicate hydrate gels exposed to high temperature: A molecular dynamics study

When exposed to fire, the integrity of cement-based materials is governed by thermally-induced changes in the mechanical properties of their binding phase, i.e., the calcium–silicate–hydrate (C–S–H) gel. However, the effect of temperature on the structure, density, and mechanical properties of C–S–H remains only partially known. Here, based on reactive molecular dynamics simulations, we reveal the nature of thermally-induced damage in C–S–H gels. In general, we show that, at the atomic scale, exposure to high temperature results in partial dehydration, volumetric shrinkage, disordering, and stiffening in the C–S–H grains. However, we show that the thermal response of C–S–H strongly depends on its chemical composition, wherein C–S–H systems associated with lower Ca/Si molar ratios are able to undergo higher temperatures before amorphization. Based on these results, we demonstrate that the stiffness of C–S–H gels (i.e., including porosity—as probed by nanoindentation) is governed by a competition between the stiffening of the grains and the decrease in packing density—wherein the latter eventually become predominant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unconfined Compression Results on Core from Boreholes U-15n#12 and U-15n#13, NNSS in support of SPE

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) serves as the geologic setting for a Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program. The SPE provides ground truth data to create and improve strong ground motion and seismic S-wave generation and propagation models. The NNSS was chosen as the test bed because it provides a variety of geologic settings ranging from relatively simple to very complex. Each series of SPE testing will comprise the setting and firing of explosive charges (source) placed in a central borehole at varying depths and recording ground motions in instrumented boreholes located in two rings around the source, positioned at different radii. Modeling using advanced simulation codes will be performed both before and after each test to predict ground response and to improve models based on acquired field data, respectively. A key component in the predictive capability and ultimate validation of the models is the full understanding of the intervening geology between the source and the instrumented boreholes including the geomechanical behavior of the site's rock/structural features. This report summarizes unconfined compression testing (UCS) from coreholes U-15n#12 and U-15n#13 and compares those datasets to UCS results from coreholes U-15n and U-15n#10. U-15n#12 corehole was drilled at -60° to the horizontal and U-15n#13 was drilled vertically in granitic rock (quartz monzonite) after the third SPE shot. Figure 1 illustrates at the surface, U 15n#12 and U-15n#13 coreholes were approximately 30 meters and 10 meters from the central SPE borehole (U-15n) respectively. Corehole U-15n#12 intersects the central SPE borehole (U 15n) at a core depth of 174 feet (approximately 150 feet vertical depth). The location of U 15n#12 and U-15n#13 is the site of the first, second and third SPE's, in Area 15 of the NNSS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unconfined Compression Results on Core from Borehole U-15n#10, NNSS, in support of SPE

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) serves as the geologic setting for a Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program. The SPE provides ground truth data to create and improve strong ground motion and seismic S-wave generation and propagation models. The NNSS was chosen as the test bed because it provides a variety of geologic settings ranging from relatively simple to very complex. Each series of SPE testing will comprise the setting and firing of explosive charges (source) placed in a central borehole at varying depths and recording ground motions in instrumented boreholes located in two rings around the source, positioned at different radii. Modeling using advanced simulation codes will be performed both before and after each test to predict ground response and to improve models based on acquired field data, respectively. A key component in the predictive capability and ultimate validation of the models is the full understanding of the intervening geology between the source and the instrumented boreholes including the geomechanical behavior of the site's rock/structural features. This memorandum reports on an initial phase of unconfined compression testing from corehole U-15n#10. Specimens tested came from the U-15n#10 core hole, which was drilled at -60° to the horizontal in granitic rock (quartz monzonite) after the second SPE shot (SPE-2). Figure 1 illustrates at the surface, the core hole was approximately 90 feet from the central SPE borehole. Corehole U 15n#10 intersects the central SPE borehole (U-15n) at a core depth of 170 feet (approximately 150 feet vertical depth) which is within the highly damaged zone of SPE-2. The U-15n#10 location is the site of the first, second and third SPE's, in Area 15 of the NNSS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗