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At least 469 records · Page 26

Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding

Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions (NPCC, 2019). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 (NPCC, 2015). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides. Some low-lying locations could become permanently inundated by late century. Will New York City coastal resiliency initiatives, guided, in part by NPCC findings, suffice for very high sea levels? Additional research is needed to determine technological, environmental, or economic limitations to coastal protection and to decide when and where strategic relocation may become necessary.

Sea level rise↗

Observations of the polar regions from satellites using active and passive microwave techniques

Observations of the ocean ice, ice sheets, ice edges, and ocean waves in the Antarctic, performed by the Seasat and Nimbus-7 satellites are described. Specific features of the Seasat altimeter, the SAR, the Seasat-A Scatterometer System, and the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are discussed, together with the advantages and limitations of each instrument as applied to the study of ice dynamics. The Nimbus-7 SMMR algorithm for calculating sea-ice concentrations is presented. In addition, the Seasat altimeter-derived data on wind speed and wave heights in the Southern Ocean, and on the ice sheets of the Antarctica and Greenland were evaluated.

Swift, C. T.↗

The Scientific Legacy of NASA’s Operation IceBridge

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Operation IceBridge (OIB) was a 13-year (2009–2021) airborne mission to survey land and sea ice across the Arctic, Antarctic, and Alaska. Here, we review OIB’s goals, instruments, campaigns, key scientific results, and implications for future investigations of the cryosphere. OIB’s primary goal was to use airborne laser altimetry to bridge the gap in fine-resolution elevation measurements of ice from space between the conclusion of NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 2003–2009) and its follow-on, ICESat-2 (launched 2018). Additional scientific requirements were intended to contextualize observed elevation changes using a multisensor suite of radar sounders, gravimeters, magnetometers, and cameras. Using 15 different aircraft, OIB conducted 968 science flights, of which 42% were repeat surveys of land ice, 42% were surveys of previously unmapped terrain across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Arctic ice caps, and Alaskan glaciers, and 16% were surveys of sea ice. The combination of an expansive instrument suite and breadth of surveys enabled numerous fundamental advances in our understanding of the Earth’s cryosphere. For land ice, OIB dramatically improved knowledge of interannual outlet-glacier variability, ice-sheet, and outlet-glacier thicknesses, snowfall rates on ice sheets, fjord and sub-ice-shelf bathymetry, and ice-sheet hydrology. Unanticipated discoveries included a reliable method for constraining the thickness within difficult-to-sound incised troughs beneath ice sheets, the extent of the firn aquifer within the Greenland Ice Sheet, the vulnerability of many Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers to ocean-driven melting at their grounding zones, and the dominance of surface-melt-driven mass loss of Alaskan glaciers. For sea ice, OIB significantly advanced our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in sea ice freeboard and its snow cover, especially through combined analysis of fine-resolution altimetry, visible imagery, and snow radar measurements of the overlying snow thickness. Such analyses led to the unanticipated discovery of an interdecadal decrease in snow thickness on Arctic sea ice and numerous opportunities to validate sea ice freeboards from satellite radar altimetry. While many of its data sets have yet to be fully explored, OIB’s scientific legacy has already demonstrated the value of sustained investment in reliable airborne platforms, airborne instrument development, interagency and international collaboration, and open and rapid data access to advance our understanding of Earth’s remote polar regions and their role in the Earth system.

Joseph A. MacGregor↗

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice shelf geometries, but where the ocean reaches a balance with prescribed far-field ocean conditions. Different thermal transfer coefficient values (ranging from 0.011 to 0.2) are used for each model in the melting parameterisation to achieve a common, tuned melt rate since the models cover a range of types of vertical coordinates, ice–ocean boundary layer treatments, and numerical schemes. These model differences lead to spread in the resultant ocean properties, circulation, boundary-layer structure and spatial distribution of melting. We also highlight similarities between models, such as a shared linear relationship across most models between melt rate and overturning and barotropic streamfunctions during the spin-up and spin-down, demonstrating a robust relationship between melt and circulation across models and forcing conditions. The ISOMIP+ results provide a systematic comparison of ice shelf cavity-capable ocean models. However, we also demonstrate the need for realistic ice shelf–ocean model intercomparison projects (some already underway) to assess model biases and inter-model variation against sparse observations. Further research is needed to understand the differences between models and further improve our modelled representations of the ice–ocean boundary layer and ice shelf cavity circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

West-Antarctic Ice Streams: Analog to Ice Flow in Channels on Mars

Sounding of the sea floor in front of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica recently revealed large persistent patterns of longitudinal megaflutes and drumlinoid forms, which are interpreted to have formed at the base of ice streams during the list glacial advance. The flutes bear remarkable resemblance to longitudinal grooves and highly elongated streamlined islands found on the floors of some large martian channels, called outflow channels. ln addition, other similarities exist between Antarctic ice streams and outflow channels. Ice streams are 30 to 80 km wide and hundreds of kilometers long, as are the martian channels. Ice stream beds are below sea level. Floors of many martian outflow channels lie below martian datum, which may have been close to or below past martian sea levels. The Antarctic ice stream bed gradient is flat and locally may go uphill, and surface slopes are exceptionally low. So are gradients of martian channels. The depth to the bed in ice streams is 1 to 1.5 km. At bankful stage, the depth of the fluid in outflow channels would have been 1 to 2 km. These similarities suggest that the martian outflow channels, whose origin is commonly attributed to gigantic catastrophic floods, were locally filled by ice that left a conspicuous morphologic imprint. Unlike the West-Antarctic-ice streams, which discharge ice from an ice sheet, ice in the martian channels came from water erupting from the ground. In the cold martian environment, this water, if of moderate volume, would eventually freeze. Thus it may have formed icings on springs, ice dams and jams on constrictions in the channel path, or frozen pools. Given sufficient thickness and downhill surface gradient, these ice masses would have moved; and given the right conditions, they could have moved like Antarctic ice streams.

Lucchitta, B. K.↗