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At least 469 records · Page 26

Short-baseline electron antineutrino disappearance study by using neutrino sources from {sup 13}C + {sup 9}Be reaction

To investigate the existence of sterile neutrino, we propose a new neutrino production method using {sup 13}C beams and a {sup 9}Be target for short-baseline electron antineutrino (ν-bar {sub e} ) disappearance study. The production of secondary unstable isotopes which can emit neutrinos from the {sup 13}C + {sup 9}Be reaction is calculated with three different nucleus-nucleus (AA) reaction models. Different isotope yields are obtained using these models, but the results of the neutrino flux are found to have unanimous similarities. This feature gives an opportunity to study neutrino oscillation through shape analysis. In this work, expected neutrino flux and event rates are discussed in detail through intensive simulation of the light ion collision reaction and the neutrino flux from the beta decay of unstable isotopes followed by this collision. Together with the reactor and accelerator anomalies, the present proposed ν-bar {sub e} source is shown to be a practically alternative test of the existence of the Δ m {sup 2} ∼ 1 eV{sup 2} scale sterile neutrino.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

OzDES reverberation mapping program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-yr C iv analysis

ABSTRACT We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customizable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic light curves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the C iv emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time-lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius–Luminosity relation. We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver, and bronze). The input slope of the R–L relation was recovered within 1σ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R–L relation slope of 0.454 ± 0.016 with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

Photometric Classification of Early-time Supernova Light Curves with SCONE

Abstract In this work, we present classification results on early supernova light curves from SCONE, a photometric classifier that uses convolutional neural networks to categorize supernovae (SNe) by type using light-curve data. SCONE is able to identify SN types from light curves at any stage, from the night of initial alert to the end of their lifetimes. Simulated LSST SNe light curves were truncated at 0, 5, 15, 25, and 50 days after the trigger date and used to train Gaussian processes in wavelength and time space to produce wavelength–time heatmaps. SCONE uses these heatmaps to perform six-way classification between SN types Ia, II, Ibc, Ia-91bg, Iax, and SLSN-I. SCONE is able to perform classification with or without redshift, but we show that incorporating redshift information improves performance at each epoch. SCONE achieved 75% overall accuracy at the date of trigger (60% without redshift), and 89% accuracy 50 days after trigger (82% without redshift). SCONE was also tested on bright subsets of SNe ( r < 20 mag) and produced 91% accuracy at the date of trigger (83% without redshift) and 95% five days after trigger (94.7% without redshift). SCONE is the first application of convolutional neural networks to the early-time photometric transient classification problem. All of the data processing and model code developed for this paper can be found in the SCONE software package 1 1 github.com/helenqu/scone located at github.com/helenqu/scone (Qu 2021).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Commissioning a time-gated camera for fast neutron beamline spatial-energy characterization at LANSCE-WNR spallation source

An energy-resolved fast neutron beam imaging diagnostic has been successfully commissioned at the Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) spallation source within the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) facility. This diagnostic replaces the existing analog phosphor image plates, which integrate across all neutron energies, as well as other particles, with a near-real-time energy-sensitive imaging capability. The system uses a fast plastic scintillator coupled with an intensified CCD camera. Specifically, the Teledyne Pi-MAX4 camera is coupled with either a 4 mm thick Eljen (EJ) 204 or 228 plastic scintillator. These scintillators are most sensitive to the fast neutrons (0.8-800 MeV) directly from the spallation source rather than low energy background radiation. Experimentally, these plastic scintillators were shown to have sufficiently fast decay to differentiate the bright gamma flash from the spallation neutrons. The spatial resolution is dominated by neutron beam divergence, with minimal additional contributions from scatter and light divergence. The system successfully resolved changes in neutron beam characteristics caused by intentional proton steering variations. Additionally, simulations of scintillator light yield as a function of thickness conducted using PHITS (with Scinful-QMD package) found that increasing scintillator thickness from 4 mm to 6 or 8 mm could potentially increase brightness ~ 3x. This may be explored if there is a need to reduce image acquisition time from several minutes to under one minute.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

SU-E-T-334: Track Structure Simulations of Charged Particles at Low and Intermediate Energies: Cross Sections Needs for Light and Heavy Ions

Purpose/Methods: Monte Carlo (MC) track structure simulations follow the primary as well as all produced secondary particles in an event-by-event manner, from starting or ejection energy down to total stopping. They provide useful information on physics and chemistry of the biological response to radiation. They depend on reliable interaction cross sections and transport models of the considered radiation quality with biologically relevant materials. Most transport models focus on sufficiently fast and bare (i.e., fully ionized) ions and cross sections calculated within the (relativistic) first Born or Bethe approximations. These theories consider the projectile as a point particle and rely on proton cross sections and simple charge-scaling methods; they neglect the atomic nature of the ion and break down at low and intermediate ion energies. Heavier ions are used in particle therapy and slow to intermediate and low energies in the biologically interesting Bragg peak. Lighter and slower fragment ions, including alpha particles, protons, and neutrons are also produced in nuclear and break up reactions of charged particles. Secondary neutrons also produce recoil protons and ions, mainly in the intermediate energy range. Results/Conclusion: This work reviews existing models for track structure simulations and cross section calculations for light and heavy ions focusing on the low and intermediate energy range. It also presents new and updated aspects on cross section calculations and simulation techniques for ions and discusses the need for new models, calculations, and experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Temporal Evolution of the Gamma-ray Burst Afterglow Spectrum for an Observer: GeV–TeV Synchrotron Self-Compton Light Curve

We numerically simulate the gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglow emission with a one-zone time-dependent code. The temporal evolutions of the decelerating shocked shell and energy distributions of electrons and photons are consistently calculated. The photon spectrum and light curves for an observer are obtained taking into account the relativistic propagation of the shocked shell and the curvature of the emission surface. We find that the onset time of the afterglow is significantly earlier than the previous analytical estimate. The analytical formulae of the shock propagation and light curve for the radiative case are also different from our results. Our results show that even if the emission mechanism is switching from synchrotron to synchrotron self-Compton, the gamma-ray light curves can be a smooth power law, which agrees with the observed light curve and the late detection of a 32 GeV photon in GRB 130427A. The uncertainty of the model parameters obtained with the analytical formula is discussed, especially in connection with the closure relation between spectral index and decay index.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synthesis of cuboid BiOCl nanosheets coupled with CdS quantum dots by region-selective deposition process with enhanced photocatalytic activity

Highlights: • Region-selective deposition process was adopted to prepare high-dispersed CdS QDs/BiOCl nanocomposites consisting of cuboid BiOCl nanosheets exposing (001) facet and CdS QDs with size of 5–10 nm. • The TGA was used as bridge linked the CdS QDs and BiOCl, which enables CdS QDs spread homogeneously on the (001) facet of BiOCl. • The optical absorption properties and charge transfer efficiency of CdS QDs/BiOCl nanocomposites are much improved owing to the widespread heterojunction between CdS QDs and BiOCl. • The photocatalytic degradation activities of CdS QDs/BiOCl composites are excellent for MO dyes and phenol contaminants under simulated solar and UV light, respectively. - Abstract: A facile region-selective deposition process was adopted to prepare high-dispersed CdS QDs on BiOCl nanosheets with the surface modification of thioglycollic acid (TGA). The samples were systematically characterized by XRD, SEM, TEM, HRTEM, EDS, XPS, UV–vis DRS, EIS and PL. The results indicate that CdS QDs with size of 5–10 nm dispersed uniformly on the surface of cuboid BiOCl nanosheets. The photocatalytic performance tests reveal that the CdS QDs-3%/BiOCl composite exhibits an excellent photocatalytic activity, which is over 4.0 and 4.8 times as high as pure BiOCl for methyl orange (MO) and phenol photodegradation rate under simulated solar light and UV light illumination, respectively. The enhanced photocatalytic performance of the CdS QDs/BiOCl composites should be attributed to the improved visible light absorption and the high migration efficiency of the photogenerated electron-holes due to the matched band gap and the widespread heterostructure between CdS QDs and BiOCl.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

CTF Theory Manual: Version 4.3

Coolant-Boiling in Rod Arrays—Two Fluids (COBRA-TF) is a thermal/hydraulic (T/H) simulation code designed for light water reactor (LWR) vessel analysis. It uses a two-fluid, three-field (i.e., fluid film, fluid drops, and vapor) modeling approach. Both subchannel and three-dimensional Cartesian forms of its governing equations are available for the solution. The code was originally developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory in 1980, and had been used and modified by several institutions over the last few decades. COBRA-TF also found use at the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) by the Reactor Dynamics and Fuel Modeling Group (RDFMG) and has been improved, updated, and subsequently rebranded as CTF. CTF was later adopted in the early 2010s by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for use in the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program, which led to a significant advancement of the code software quality, modeling accuracy, testing systems, and capabilities for improved support of modeling of common LWR nominal and transient behavior. As part of the improvement process, it was necessary to generate sufficient documentation for the public domain code which had lacked such material upon being adopted by RDFMG. This document serves as a theory manual for CTF, detailing the many two-phase heat transfer, drag, and important accident scenario models contained in the code, as well as the numerical solution process utilized. Additional documents available in the CTF documentation suite include the user manual and verification and validation manual.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CADIS and FW-CADIS Variance Reduction in Gamma Transport for Predicting Prompt Forensics Signatures

The goal of prompt nuclear forensics is to determine the characteristics of a nuclear detonation based on the signatures available almost immediately after the explosion. An important characteristic is the reaction time history (RTH), a measure of the device’s rate of neutron multiplication. The RTH can be estimated by observation of the gamma radiation emitted from the detonation, which can be detected directly or observed indirectly as Teller light. Gamma transport simulations used to predict these radiation fields are often modeled stochastically using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, which can be a computationally demanding task due to the number of particle histories needed to achieve statistical convergence. In an attempt to improve the efficiency of these calculations, we evaluate two variance reduction techniques: Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) and Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS). These methods use a deterministically calculated adjoint flux to create weight windows and source biasing that guide MCNP sampling. We study the utility of CADIS and FW-CADIS for their use in MCNP gamma transport for nuclear forensics prediction simulations. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that both CADIS and FW-CADIS improve the accuracy for forensics-focused simulations, with CADIS being most beneficial in direct detection and FW-CADIS being ideal for computing a global Teller light source.

CADIS↗

Economic analysis of the daylight-linked lighting control system in office buildings

The objective of this study is to perform an economic analysis of the daylight-linked automatic on/off lighting control system installed for the purpose of energy savings in office buildings. For this, a building was chosen as a typical example, and the energy cost was calculated by using the daylight and building energy analysis simulation. When the lighting control was utilized, an economic analysis was performed using a payback period that was calculated by comparing the initial cost of installing the lighting control system with the annual energy cost which was reduced thanks to the application of the lighting control. The results showed that the lighting energy consumption, when the lighting control was applied, was reduced by an average of 30.5% compared with the case that there was not lighting control applied. Also, the result for total energy consumption showed that, when lighting control was applied, this was reduced by 8.5% when the glazing ratio was 100%, 8.2% for 80%, and 7.6% for 60% when compared to non-application. The payback period was analyzed in terms of the number of floors in a building; 10 floors, 20 floors, 30 floors, and 40 floors. Hence, the building with 40 floors and glazing ratio 100% resulted in the shortest payback period of 8.8 years, the building with 10 floors and glazing ratio 60% resulted in the longest period of 12.7 years. In other words, the larger the glazing ratio and the number of building floors are, the shorter the payback period is. (author)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Verification of a Modeling Toolkit for the Design of Building Electrical Distribution Systems

DC electrical distribution systems offer many potential advantages over their AC counterparts. They can facilitate easier integration with distributed energy resources, improve system energy efficiency by eliminating AC/DC converters at end-use devices (e.g., laptop chargers), and reduce installation material, time, and cost. However, DC electrical distribution systems present additional design considerations, largely resulting from potentially greater magnitude and variation in cable losses. Modeling and simulation are rarely used to design such systems. However, the greater dependency of DC system energy efficiency on design choices such as distribution voltages, architecture, and integration of PV and BESS suggests that modeling and simulation may be required. Such system performance analysis is currently not a standard practice, in part due to limited availability and validation of capable software tools. This paper characterizes the accuracy of a Modelica-based Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit, as a precursor for validating its use to perform system performance analysis and inform design decisions. The study builds upon previous verification research by characterizing complete systems comprised of commercially available equipment, and providing a more detailed analysis of simulation results. Five lighting systems with varying electrical distribution architectures were designed using market-available equipment, installed in a laboratory environment, modeled using BEEAM, and simulated using three Modelica integrated development environments (IDEs). Simulated and measured results were compared to characterize toolkit accuracy. Initial results revealed that simulated performance was mostly within ±5% of measured system-level and device-level performance. While simulation results were not found to be dependent on the IDE, some Modelica compiler interoperability issues were identified. Although the BEEAM toolkit showed promise for the targeted use case, further work is needed to determine whether the demonstrated 5% accuracy is sufficient for making real-world design decisions, and for BEEAM to advance from an interesting research tool to one that can impact real-world building projects.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Spatially Adaptive Tunable Lighting Control System with Expanded Wellness and Energy Saving Benefits

Lighting design is becoming increasingly complex, including active dimming for energy savings and spectral tuning for human wellbeing. Modern commercial lighting control systems are already difficult to use, and maintain, and even with so-called Smart Lighting, optimizing light settings is rapidly exceeding the capabilities of direct human control, limiting the adoption of lighting control systems. The growing importance of Occupancy Centric Controls (OCC) for advanced building management systems can be applied to the development of autonomous lighting system controls needed to drive the adoption of advanced lighting controls for improved adaptive “sculpted illumination” for both greater energy savings and broader human wellbeing perspectives. This project, led by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, entitled “Spatially adaptive tunable lighting control system with expanded wellness and energy saving benefits” will develop and test an entirely new platform for automated optimized lighting design and control that requires little or no human engagement, yet contours lighting profiles automatically to minimize lighting energy use. We call this approach to lighting control “dynamic light sculpting” since the right amount of illumination is automatically delivered to occupants in real time. Since the system uses new, privacy-preserving occupant position and pose detection technologies developed by Rensselaer for broad OCC building applications, the control system will analyze how to deliver the right amount of the right type of illumination only where and when it is needed based these OCC platforms. To create these powerful autonomous lighting control platforms, the project will integrate evolving augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) tools with sophisticated lighting and interior design toolkits to create interactive lighting design and control simulators. Using the quickly growing paradigm of digital twins, these tools will integrate light fixture properties, occupancy sensor data, interior design data, and lighting specifications to accurately visualize how various design concepts interact with simulated yet realistic human activities that occur in commercial office buildings of various types. These advanced digital twin design and simulation tools will be combined with a new class of digitally-programmable LED lighting fixtures that can dynamically change the spectral content and direction of light emission. When fully integrated, the new autonomous lighting control system will take all of the guesswork out of optimizing light quality while minimizing energy consumption. Digital twin tools will simplify the design, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of future energy-efficient lighting systems. It should be possible to reduce lighting energy costs from 40% to 70% with OCC based dynamic light sculpting systems. The work will be led by the Center for Lighting Enabled Systems and Applications (LESA) and the Center for Architectural Science and Ecology (CASE), both at Renssealer Polytechnic Institute; Lumileds, a global leader in the development of advanced LED systems; and HKS, a leading global architecture design firm. This interdisciplinary project team’s experience includes all of the design simulation tools, VR/AR digital twin visualization technology, advanced occupancy sensing technology, and complex control system design capabilities that will revolutionize lighting design and control technology to autonomously deliver high-quality lighting that improves human health and wellbeing while simultaneously maximizing lighting energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Detailed Vehicle Modeling & Simulation Study Quantifying Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Advanced Vehicle Technologies Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: (1) Multiple powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); (2) Vehicle classes (compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and (3) Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of five years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (the year the technology is introduced into production).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Field Study of Performance, Comfort, and Sizing of Two Variable-Speed Heat Pumps Installed in a Single 2-Story Residence

With the recent advancements in the application of variable-speed (VS) compressors to residential HVAC systems, opportunities are now available to size heat pumps (HPs) to more effectively meet heating and cooling loads in many of the climate zones in the US with limited use of inefficient resistance heat. This is in contrast to sizing guidance for traditional single-speed HPs that limits the ability to oversize with regard to cooling loads, because of risks of poor dehumidification during the cooling season and increased cycling losses. VS-drive HPs can often run at 30-40% of their rated cooling capacity to reduce cycling losses, and can adjust fan speed to provide better indoor humidity control. Detailed air-side performance data was collected on two VS-drive heat pumps installed in a single unoccupied research house in Knoxville, TN, a mixed-humid climate. One system provided space conditioning for the upstairs, while the other unit provided space conditioning for the downstairs. Occupancy was simulated by operating the lights, shower, appliances, other plug loads, etc. to simulate the sensible and latent loads imposed on the building space by internal electric loads and human occupants according to the Building America Research Benchmark (2008). The seasonal efficiency and energy use of the units are calculated. Annual energy use is compared to that of the single speed minimum efficiency HPs tested in the same house previously. Sizing of the units relative to the measured building load and manual J design load calculations is examined. The impact of the unit sizing with regards to indoor comfort is also evaluated.

Munk, Jeffrey D↗

Short-depth QAOA circuits and quantum annealing on higher-order ising models

Abstract We present a direct comparison between QAOA (Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz), and QA (Quantum Annealing) on 127 qubit problem instances. QAOA with p = 1, 2 rounds is executed on the 127 qubit heavy-hex graph gate-model quantum computer ibm_washington, using on-device grid-searches for angle finding, and QA is executed on two Pegasus-chip D-Wave quantum annealers. The problems are random Ising models whose connectivity matches heavy-hex graphs and the Pegasus graph connectivity, and optionally include hardware-compatible cubic terms ( Z Z Z terms). The QAOA circuits are heavily optimized and of extremely short depth, with a CNOT depth of 6 per round, which allows whole chip usage of the heavy-hex lattice. QAOA and QA are both compared against simulated annealing and the optimal solutions are computed exactly using CPLEX. The noiseless mean QAOA expectation values for p = 1, 2 are computed using classical light-cone based simulations. We find QA outperforms QAOA on the evaluated devices.

127 qubits↗

Light collection optimization for composite photoanode in dye-sensitized solar cells: Towards higher efficiency

Composite photoanode comprising nanoparticles and one-dimensional (1D) nanostructure is a promising alternative to conventional photoanode for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs). Besides fast electron transport channels, the 1D nanostructure also plays as light scattering centers. Here, we theoretically investigate the light scattering properties of capsule-shaped 1D nanostructure and their influence on the light collection of DSCs. It is found that the far-field light scattering of a single capsule depends on its volume, shape, and orientation: capsules with bigger equivalent spherical diameter, smaller aspect ratio, and horizontal orientation demonstrate stronger light scattering especially at large scattering angle. Using Monte Carlo approach, we simulated and optimized the light harvesting efficiency of the cell. Two multilayer composite photoanodes containing orderly or randomly oriented capsules are proposed. DSCs composed of these two photoanodes are promising for higher efficiencies because of their efficient light collection and superior electron collection. These results will provide practical guidance to the design and optimization of the photoanodes for DSCs.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Vehicle energy consumption estimation using large scale simulations and machine learning methods

Vehicle energy consumption and powertrain operations for future vehicle powertrain technologies are predicted through full-vehicle simulations using Autonomie, a simulation tool developed at Argonne National Laboratory. Over 1 million vehicles, with different powertrain types (conventional and numerous electrified powertrains) and component technologies (advanced engines, batteries, electrical machines, light weighting) are simulated for outputs including vehicle fuel economy and cost. Despite the ability of Autonomic to predict fuel economy given various combination of vehicle inputs, the full-vehicle simulation is very time-consuming. It takes approximately 84 h to simulate for 33,060 vehicles even using distributed computing on a cluster of 128 worker nodes. Moreover, Autonomic is unable to populate a continuous output space through simulation since it only yields outputs with discrete values instead of an input-output relation. This paper proposes a novel large-scale learning and prediction process (LSLPP) via machine learning approaches to answer the need for a continuous space of vehicle fuel economy and a more efficient simulation process. By learning in a supervised fashion to discover structures in data, the machine learning approaches seek to train a model that can explain the data with which we can perform prediction over unseen data. As such, we are able to accomplish analytic continuation on the current discrete space of simulation results. In addition, we present a random sampling -based numerosity reduction algorithm incorporated in LSLPP that reduces simulation runs and improves efficiency of data procurement. We analytically derive a theoretical bound in order to guarantee the effectiveness of our algorithm. We also compare random sampling to stratified sampling and suggest sampling strategies. A user-friendly tool is developed to support the process. Our experimental results confirm that the proposed LSLPP is able to greatly accelerate prediction and analysis of vehicle fuel economy. The output of this study is used by the US government to evaluate the impact of its R&D funding on energy security and CO 2 emission as well as for the setting of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗