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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Distribution Grid Model Publication Investigation

Interest in the external exchange of distribution grid model data is growing around the world, driven largely by the challenges and opportunities presented by the increasing amount of generation, storage, and flexible load being embedded within the distribution grid. This report provides an overview of the current state of distribution grid model data sharing, with a focus on the industry-leading activities currently underway in Great Britain (GB). A second report will explore opportunities for external distribution grid model sharing in the United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dampening of the Precipitation Response to Aerosol Pollution From Turbulence in Cumulus Clouds

Using aircraft observations and a cloud model with particle‐based microphysics, it is shown that the enhancement of drop collision‐coalescence from turbulence in clouds not only leads to earlier onset of rain in warm cumulus clouds as past studies have suggested, but also significantly dampens the precipitation susceptibility to aerosol loading. Enhanced drop coalescence from turbulence substantially increases the production of drizzle embryos just above cloud base, which in turn act as seeds that accelerate rain drop growth at mid and upper cloud levels even in highly polluted conditions. In contrast, pollution aerosols strongly inhibit rainfall when the commonly assumed gravitational‐only collision kernel is used and turbulent coalescence is neglected. Overall, turbulence‐enhanced drop coalescence strongly influences the response of warm cumulus clouds and precipitation to aerosol loading, suggesting that the effects of turbulent coalescence should be included in Earth system model representations of aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions and aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant [NSF National Center for At↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure X-ray Diffraction and Equation of State of Hydrazine

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction has been used to investigate the structure and equation of state (EOS) of hydrazine (N 2 H 4 ) up to 54.3 GPa at 298 K. The diffraction patterns could be fit to a monoclinic unit-cell structure and put strong constraints on previously reported phase transitions documented by vibrational spectroscopy over this pressure range. Pressure–volume ( P–V ) data were fit using a Vinet EOS, yielding parameters: V 0 = 45.2 Å 3 /molecule (fixed), K 0 = 11.8(7) GPa, and K 0 ′ = 6.5(2). Previously measured high-pressure vibrational frequency shifts were used to estimate the vibrational free energy and model P–V–T isotherms from 0 to 1200 K. The results of the P–V–T isotherms are compared to existing shock Hugoniot data on hydrazine and 298 K isotherms for assemblages of possible decomposition products. This comparison suggests dissociation at high density under shock loading. Good correspondence was found between the static lattice EOS as calculated by the model and the previously reported EOS as calculated by density functional theory. Finally, these results resolve existing uncertainties about the EOS and crystal symmetry of hydrazine at high pressure and provide valuable baseline information on this important energetic material.

diffraction↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computing virtual dark-field X-ray microscopy images of complex discrete dislocation structures from large-scale molecular dynamics simulations

Dark-field X-ray microscopy (DFXM) is a novel diffraction-based imaging technique that non-destructively maps the local deformation from crystalline defects in bulk materials. While studies have demonstrated that DFXM can spatially map 3D defect geometries, it is still challenging to interpret DFXM images of the high-dislocation-density systems relevant to macroscopic crystal plasticity. This work develops a scalable forward model to calculate virtual DFXM images for complex discrete dislocation structure(s) (DDS) obtained from atomistic simulations. Our new DDS-DFXM model integrates a non-singular formulation for calculating the local strain from the DDS and an efficient geometrical optics algorithm for computing the DFXM image from the strain field. We apply the model to complex DDS obtained from a large-scale mol­ecular dynamics simulation of compressive loading on single-crystal silicon. Simulated DFXM images exhibit prominent contrast for dislocation features between the multiple slip systems, demonstrating the potential of DFXM to resolve features from dislocation multiplication. In conclusion, the integrated DDS-DFXM model provides a toolbox for DFXM experimental design and image interpretation in the context of bulk crystal plasticity for a range of measurements across shock plasticity and the broader materials science community.

X-ray imaging↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A hierarchical framework for aggregating grid-interactive buildings with thermal and battery energy storage

The behind-the-meter (BTM) thermal and battery energy storage can help improve energy efficiency, reduce energy costs, and enhance energy resilience, particularly in rural areas and for disadvantaged communities. Aggregating numerous BTM energy storage systems can act as a price influencer with a significant source of load shifting and peak demand reduction. An integrated and scalable control mechanism is required to effectively utilize energy storage systems and flexible building loads to maximize the economic benefits, considering various distribution system constraints. Here, this paper presents an innovative hierarchical coordination framework for energy storage and flexible load in buildings, considering various factors such as electricity prices, thermal comfort, and distribution system modeling and constraints. At the upper level, a distribution system operator optimizes the power flow to minimize its power procurement costs from the electricity wholesale market, while at the lower level, aggregators determine the optimal dispatch of battery and thermal energy storage systems in multiple buildings on behalf of end-users to minimize operating costs according to the power prices. These problems are solved using a game-theoretic approach through negotiations between the distribution system operator and aggregators as a bi-level decision model. Simulation case studies have been performed for a test distribution network with a number of building end-users using energy storage systems to quantify the performance of aggregators. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can reduce peak load for a reliable electricity distribution network while saving electricity bills for customers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model of the Long-Term Corrosion of Glass-Ceramic Materials

Multiphase waste forms show promise for increased waste loading and for the ability to dispose of contaminated solid and particulate waste through direct densification. However, achieving predictive capability for long-term durability of multiphase waste forms, and thus assessing their possible deployment, requires expanding the current, limited knowledge base. Here, we describe the development of a corrosion model of a two-phase waste form consisting of crystals of known volume fraction embedded in a glass matrix. This model accounts for the dissolution of both the crystalline and glass phases as well as the hydration of the glass phase through an ion exchange reaction. Because of the large difference in solubility between the two phases, the reactive surface of the crystalline phase is a function of the extent of dissolution of the glass phase in this model. Model parameterization was performed using corrosion data, such as from single-pass flow-through tests, for the individual phases. The parameterized corrosion model was evaluated against static dissolution test data for a glass-ceramic multiphase waste form. This evaluation demonstrated the model’s ability to reproduce the time-dependent release of key tracers of glass and crystalline phase dissolution. Hence, the development of a kinetic model provides a pathway for long-term durability predictions and thus the use of multiphase waste forms in nuclear cleanup missions.

Kerisit, Sebastien N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Impact: Evaluating Thermal Zoning Simplification on Energy Efficiency Measures Analysis

Building Energy Modeling (BEM) is a versatile tool for designing, retrofitting, ensuring code compliance, obtaining certifications, qualifying for incentives, and enabling real-time building control. However, capturing all the details of building geometry for thermal zoning can be time-consuming, costly, and sometimes computationally challenging. As a result, modelers have been applying zoning simplification based on factors such as space functions and internal loads, as well as relying on their experience and judgment while adhering to zoning rules outlined in industry standards. Despite the prevalence of this common practice, a notable gap exists in the literature regarding studies quantifying the influence of simplified thermal zoning on the evaluation of Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs). Recognizing this gap, this paper seeks to contribute to the field by enhancing the understanding of how the simplification of thermal zoning influences the evaluation of EEMs against a baseline design. The study utilized a medium office prototype model with a detailed floor plan featuring over 20 zones per floor covering diverse functional spaces with varying internal loads and occupancy schedules. A standard thermal zoning strategy outlined in ASHRAE Standard 90.1 Appendix G was employed as the simplified zoning method. This strategy condenses the zoning into a core zone and four perimeter zones per floor. It was compared with the detailed zoning approach, which involves one zone per space. Common Energy EEMs, such as enhanced envelope, high-efficiency appliances and equipment, and HVAC controls, were individually implemented and evaluated. The results indicate that the performance comparison between the two zoning methods varies depending on the type of measures considered. Basic measures, such as adding wall insulation, demonstrate similar energy impacts, while advanced HVAC control measures, such as static pressure reset, exhibit a more substantial difference that cannot be overlooked.

Xie, Jiarong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating switch lifetime in soft-switched single-stage differential-mode SST

The reliability of semiconductor switches in single-stage differential-mode solid-state transformers (DM-SSTs) has not been systematically evaluated under soft-switching operation and realistic grid conditions. This paper presents a switch-level reliability analysis for soft-switched and hard-switched DM-SST configurations by integrating converter-specific power loss modeling with empirical lifetime prediction. Analytical derivation of device current profiles specific to the DM-SST is used to characterize electrothermal stress, which is then mapped to lifetime using degradation models obtained from power cycling tests (PCTs). Applied to realistic SST load profiles and grid voltage variations, this approach provides a probabilistic prediction of switch lifetime for the DM-SST. Lifetime estimates for both SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs are presented, offering insight into device degradation under converter operating conditions. The results quantify the reliability benefits of soft switching in single-stage SSTs, highlighting how switching dynamics influence long-term switch degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sub-Ambient Performance of Potassium Sarcosinate for Direct Air Capture Applications: CO 2 Flux and Viscosity Measurements

Absorption based direct air capture (DAC) technologies have garnered significant interest in recent years due to their scalability, competitive regeneration energy requirements, and low susceptibility to degradation. One of the key advantages of DAC lies in its flexible siting options and the potential to utilize low-value land. However, most of the research in this field has been focused on ambient climate zones (T > 20 °C), overlooking sub-ambient (–30 °C < T < 20 °C) regions, which comprise approximately 70 % of the Earth’s surface. To fully realize the potential of DAC, it is essential to understand how DAC solvents perform in these sub-ambient conditions before any large-scale deployment can be considered. Among DAC solvents of interest, potassium sarcosinate (K-SAR) has emerged as a promising candidate due to its high CO 2 capacity, fast uptake kinetics, compatibility with contactor packing materials, low volatility, good thermal and oxidative stability, and competitive regeneration energy requirements compared to current industry standards. This paper characterizes the CO 2 flux and viscosity of K-SAR at sub-ambient conditions and explores the potential of using ethylene glycol and triethylene glycol as additives to prevent solvent freezing in DAC applications. For 1 M K-SAR, the CO 2 flux ranges between 1.3 × 10 -5 and 8.0 × 10 -5 mol m –2 s –1 across a temperature range of –5 °C to 45 °C. Ethylene glycol is shown to effectively suppress the freezing point of K-SAR below –30 °C with volumetric loadings of the additive as low as 0.1. Here, a reaction model was developed to predict the CO 2 flux for 1 M K-SAR at different temperatures, demonstrating good agreement between experimental and theoretical fluxes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting long-term stress relaxation on Alloy 709 using the crystal plasticity finite element method

This report summarizes the results of physics-based, crystal plasticity simulations for the long-term stress relaxation behavior of Alloy 709. The purpose of the study was to provide insight into five key questions related to long-term behavior in high temperatures materials which are difficult or impossible to answer experimentally: (1) is there a threshold stress for long-term relaxation? (2) is there strain threshold for relaxation damage, below which significant damage does not accumulate? (3) does damage continue to accumulate as the material relaxes or will damage accumulation plateau under some loading conditions? (4) does stress relaxation loading inevitably lead to failure? and (5) which, if any, engineering models for relaxation damage accumulation reasonably match the simulation results? The report summarizes the numerical simulations used to address these five questions and provides at least partial answers to each question.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recovery Simulator and Analysis Formulation: Mathematical Framework for Enhanced Resilience and Resource Allocation

This report introduces recovery simulator and analysis (RSA), a framework aimed at enhancing the resilience of electrical grids post-disruption. The RSA model leverages an optimization problem formulation that focuses on maximizing the load served (or optionally customers served) through a coordinated and cooptimized recovery of non-black start generation, transmission lines, feeders and substations subject to labor budget constraints. By integrating advanced linear programming techniques, the simulator selects efficient reocovery pathways, optimizing both short-term and long-term grid recovery strategies. The mathematical framework guides decision-making through a comprehensive evaluation of potential recovery actions, factoring in the trade-offs between labor constraints and load (or optionally customer) restoration efficacy. This enables grid operators to simulate diverse outage scenarios and delineate optimal recovery pathways, thereby prioritizing critical repair tasks and ensuring resource allocation is both economical and effective. The intended use case of RSA is to allow planners to explore many recovery scenarios quickly and determine assets most critical across a wide range of scenarios, and therefore strong candidates for hardening or additional investment. RSA might also be used in an operational setting, following a single event, for exploring efficient recovery pathways.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

DetSuM: Detector Surrogate Model for LArTPC

In large neutrino experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), estimating detector response uncertainties typically requires simulation samples that consume substantial computing resources and time. To mitigate this challenge, we present DetSuM, an uncertainty-aware surrogate model designed to capture the detector response variations with reduced computing load compared to full simulations. This poster describes the construction and evaluation of DetSuM using simulation and reconstruction datasets in a rare-event search at DUNE. We assess DetSuM's ability to predict key detector-response variations and their associated uncertainties, discuss current limitations, and outline improvements to extend its validity in systematics studies of DUNE physics.

Li, Aobo [UC, San Diego]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-High Vacuum Outgassing Characterization of Thermally Processed Low-Carbon Steel for Advanced Particle Accelerator and Gravitational Wave Detector Applications

This dissertation investigated AISI 1020 low-carbon steel as an alternative vacuum chamber material to conventional stainless steel for ultra-high vacuum (UHV) and extreme-high vacuum (XHV) applications. After a 400 °C/48 h bake, AISI 1020 tube chambers achieved a hydrogen outgassing rate of 2.4 × 10¿¹6 Torr·L·s¿¹·cm¿², approximately 2,300 times lower than the prebaked 316L stainless-steel comparator, among the lowest hydrogen outgassing rates ever reported for an uncoated metallic vacuum chamber. Bare and magnetite-coated AISI 1020 chambers were then compared using throughput and rate-of-rise methods. The magnetite coating yielded 5× lower water outgassing at room temperature, but this advantage disappeared after 80 °C baking. After full thermal conditioning (400 °C/48 h prebake followed by 150 °C/96 h and 200 °C/110 h), bare steel achieved 25× lower hydrogen outgassing than the magnetite-coated chamber (9.6 × 10¿¹6 Torr·L·s¿¹·cm¿²) and >99% H2 purity with carbon species below RGA detection. Monte Carlo molecular flow simulations of a CEBAF photogun beamline (96 scenarios) showed that replacing 304L stainless steel with AISI 1020 reduces equilibrium H2 pressure by a factor of 833; a single 304L electrode contributes 98.8% of the gas load despite occupying only 9.1% of the internal surface area. A 500-m Einstein Telescope beampipe screening showed that corrugated bellows contribute 18% of the gas load from only 0.7% of the surface area. A five-model adsorption isotherm framework applied to 22 pumpdown datasets (164 fits with AR(1)-GLS correction) established that the experimental protocol, not the material, controls isotherm identifiability: Dubinin–Radushkevich wins isothermal pipe pumpdowns; Langmuir wins thermally dominated chamber bakes. Cross-dataset joint fitting of the AISI 1020 pipe pumpdowns yielded an H2 diffusion activation energy Ed = 7.24 ± 1.28 kcal·mol¿¹, consistent with trap dominated diffusion in commercial low-carbon steels. Two companion innovations were developed: a Variable Conductance Device (VCD, patent pending IDF-00723) for XHV outgassing measurement, and VacuumDesignerPro (VDP), a MATLAB-based design tool validated against LIGO benchmarks.

Al-Allaq, Aiman H [Old Dominion University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗