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DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Defect Dynamics in Silicon Carbide Using Symmetry-Adapted Collective Variables and Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Silicon carbide (SiC) divacancies are attractive candidates for spin-defect qubits possessing long coherence times and optical addressability. The high activation barriers associated with SiC defect formation and motion pose challenges for their study by first-principles molecular dynamics. In this work, we develop and deploy machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) to accelerate defect dynamics simulations while retaining ab initio accuracy. We employ an active learning strategy comprising symmetry-adapted collective variable discovery and enhanced sampling to compile configurationally diverse training data, calculation of energies and forces using density functional theory (DFT), and training of an E(3)-equivariant MLIP based on the Allegro model. Here, the trained MLIP reproduces DFT-level accuracy in defect transition activation free energy barriers, enables the efficient and stable simulation of multidefect 216-atom supercells, and permits an analysis of the temperature dependence of defect thermodynamic stability and formation/annihilation kinetics to propose an optimal annealing temperature to maximally stabilize VV divacancies.

Computer simulations↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating science: The usage of commercial clouds in ATLAS Distributed Computing

The ATLAS experiment at CERN is one of the largest scientific machines built to date and will have ever growing computing needs as the Large Hadron Collider collects an increasingly larger volume of data over the next 20 years. ATLAS is conducting R&D projects on Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as complementary resources for distributed computing, focusing on some of the key features of commercial clouds: lightweight operation, elasticity and availability of multiple chip architectures. The proof of concept phases have concluded with the cloud-native, vendoragnostic integration with the experiment’s data and workload management frameworks. Google Cloud has been used to evaluate elastic batch computing, ramping up ephemeral clusters of up to O(100k) cores to process tasks requiring quick turnaround. Amazon Web Services has been exploited for the successful physics validation of the Athena simulation software on ARM processors. We have also set up an interactive facility for physics analysis allowing endusers to spin up private, on-demand clusters for parallel computing with up to 4 000 cores, or run GPU enabled notebooks and jobs for machine learning applications. The success of the proof of concept phases has led to the extension of the Google Cloud project, where ATLAS will study the total cost of ownership of a production cloud site during 15 months with 10k cores on average, fully integrated with distributed grid computing resources and continue the R&D projects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of the metal–insulator transition temperature in alio-valently doped VO 2 through symbolic regression

The correlated semiconductor vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) exhibits an insulator–metal transition (IMT) near room temperature, which is of interest in various device applications. Precise IMT temperature control is crucial to determine the use cases across technologies such as thermochromic windows, actuators for robots or neuronal oscillators. Doping the cation or anion sites can modulate the IMT by several tens of degrees and control hysteresis. However, modeling the effects of control parameters (e.g., doping concentration, type of dopants) is challenging due to complex experimental procedures and limited data, hindering the use of traditional data-driven machine learning approaches. Symbolic regression (SR) can bridge this gap by identifying nonlinear expressions connecting key input parameters to target properties, even with small data sets. In this work, we develop SR models to capture the IMT trends in VO 2 influenced by different dopant parameters. Using experimental data from the literature, our study reveals a dual nature of the IMT temperature with varying tungsten (W) doping concentrations. The symbolic model captures data trends and accounts for experimental variability, providing a complementary approach to first-principles calculations. Our feature-driven analysis across a broader class of dopants informs selectivity and provides qualitative insights into tuning phase transition properties valuable for neuromorphic computing and thermochromic windows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Capture through Membranes - Leveraging Multiphysics Modeling, Dimensional Analysis and Machine Learning to Scale up and Optimize Devices and Processes for Decarbonization

We study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed). Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging explainable AI to characterize floating-point exceptions in linear solvers

Linear solver packages are central to many scientific, engineering, and machine learning applications. When floating-point exceptions occur in these solvers, e.g., division by zero or overflow, numerical results are compromised and become unreliable. Existing static and dynamic analysis tools can detect such exceptions, but they do not explain why the exceptions occur in terms of the solver inputs. Here, we present a study to characterize the inputs that cause numerical exceptions in linear solver packages. Our approach uses explainable AI (XAI) to find the most relevant characteristics of input matrices that explain the occurrence of exceptions in the solvers. Since training data in this domain is scarce, we perform extensive data gathering and data augmentation to obtain exception-inducing inputs. Our approach uses a repair strategy on the features blamed by XAI to validate that such features indeed explain the exceptions. We compare the LIME and SHAP XAI techniques using a dozen matrix features with three classifiers. We evaluate the approach on three widely used linear solver packages and find that some input characteristics can explain the occurrence of exceptions 100% of the time, in specific solvers and preconditioners.

Explainable AI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Absorption dissymmetry factor enhancement: A data-driven approach to unravel the synthesis knobs of chiral 2D perovskites

Chiral 2D metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are promising for spin-optoelectronic applications, yet their absorption dissymmetry factor (g abs ) exhibits significant variability due to complex, co-dependent structural and experimental factors. Here, we established a data-driven framework using Pearson’s correlation, ANOVA, and Gaussian process regression to identify and model key synthesis “knobs” governing these properties. The analysis revealed that solvent choice is the primary factor driving variability. For acetonitrile-based films, g abs was maximized by optimizing annealing temperature and film thickness. Conversely, films from higher boiling point solvents showed complex dependencies on annealing temperature, excitonic integral intensity, and film texture. These statistical correlations provide a roadmap for the rational design of high-performance chiral MHPs and establish a foundation for future machine learning-driven material exploration.

ANOVA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Machine Learning Forecasting of Labquake Using Event‐Based Features and Clustering Characteristics

Abstract Following recent advances of machine learning (ML), we present a novel approach to extract spatiotemporal seismo‐mechanical features from Acoustic Emission (AE) catalogs to empower ML‐based forecasting. The AE data were recorded during laboratory stick‐slip experiments on granite samples cut by rough faults. Based on the features computed for a past time window, a random forest (RF) classifier is used to forecast the occurrence of a large magnitude event ( M AE > 3.5) in the next time window. Event‐based features allow us to associate informative time‐space characteristics to each feature and nearest‐neighbor clustering analysis enables us to separate background and clustered seismicity and train individual models. The results show that the separation of AEs enhances the forecasting accuracy from 73.2% for the entire catalog up to 82.1% and 89.0% if background and clustered events are used separately. The presented new approach may be upscaled for applications to forecast tectonic earthquakes.

Karimpouli, Sadegh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalizable machine learning potentials for quantum-accurate predictions of non-equilibrium behavior in 2D materials

Machine learning interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) are emerging as transformative tools in materials modeling, promising quantum-level accuracy at a fraction of the computational cost. However, their ability to generalize beyond equilibrium configurations and to reliably capture defect- and temperature-driven behavior remains underexplored. Here, we develop and benchmark two state-of-the-art ML-IAPs, Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potential (SNAP) and Allegro, on a comprehensive dataset for monolayer MoSe₂. Using density functional theory (DFT) as the reference, we evaluate their performance in capturing stress–strain behavior, phase transition energetics, defect evolution, edge stability, and fracture toughness. Allegro, a deep equivariant neural network potential, surpasses both SNAP and the classical Tersoff potential in accuracy, efficiency, and transferability. Importantly, both ML potentials accurately reproduce experimental fracture measurements and ab initio predictions of inversion domain formation—phenomena well beyond their training sets. Our findings establish ML-IAPs as viable replacements for traditional force fields in the study of non-equilibrium mechanical phenomena, enabling large-scale, high-fidelity simulations in 2D materials and beyond. In conclusion, this work provides a broadly applicable framework for data-driven modeling of structural and functional transformations under extreme conditions.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

Frictionless knowledge injection for few-shot learning

Cutting-edge machine learning methods often require large volumes of curated training data, precluding their use in national security problems with rare events in massive datasets. We present a method for incorporating abstract knowledge into models tailored for sparse data. A subject matter expert defines salient concepts using data examples, which are encoded in the model’s embedding space. Models are then trained to respect these concepts. This method enables knowledge injection, yielding effective models with limited labeled data and the ability to assess model sensitivity for subject matter expertise across the nonproliferation mission space, as demonstrated with Raman spectra analysis.

Stomps, Jordan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178114479)↗

DOE OSTI2025

nmRanalysis: An Open-Source Web Application for Semi-automated NMR Metabolite Profiling

Though data acquisition and initial signal pre-processing of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra have achieved high degrees of automation, downstream processing - specifically the profiling of spectra - has bottlenecked the overall NMR analysis workflow. Several efforts have been made to mitigate this bottleneck, but these solutions often trade an increase in automation for limitations elsewhere. Here, in this technical note, we introduce nmRanalysis, a user-friendly web-application that integrates the strengths of existing profiling tools for a more automated profiling workflow. nmRa-nalysis additionally incorporates novel features, including a machine-learning-driven recommender system for me-tabolite identification, further increasing the utility of nmRanalysis over the individual tools that it incorporates.

Flores, Javier E. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable machine learning-guided design of Fe-based soft magnetic alloys

Here, we present a machine learning (ML) guided approach to predict saturation magnetization (𝑀 S ) and coercivity (𝐻 C ) in Fe-rich soft magnetic alloys, particularly Fe-Si-B systems. ML models trained on experimental data reveal that increasing Si and B content reduces 𝑀 S from 1.81 T (DFT ≈ 2.04 T) to ≈1.54 T (DFT ≈ 1.56T) in Fe-Si-B, which is attributed to decreased magnetic density and structural modifications. Experimental validation of ML predicted magnetic saturation on Fe-1Si-1B (2.09 T), Fe-5Si-5B (2.01 T), and Fe-10Si-10B (1.54 T) alloy compositions further supports our findings. These trends are consistent with density functional theory predictions, which link increased electronic disorder and band broadening to lower 𝑀 S values. Experimental validation on selected alloys confirms the predictive accuracy of the ML model, with good agreement across compositions. Beyond predictive accuracy, detailed uncertainty quantification and model interpretability including through feature importance and partial dependence analysis reveal that 𝑀 S is governed by a nonlinear interplay between Fe content and early transition metal ratios, while 𝐻 C is more sensitive to processing conditions such as ribbon thickness and thermal treatment windows. The ML framework was further applied to Fe-Si-B/Cr/Cu/Zr/Nb alloys in a pseudoquaternary compositional space, which shows comparable magnetic properties to NANOMET (Fe 84.8 ⁢Si 0.5 ⁢B 9.4 ⁢Cu 0.8⁢ P 3.5 ⁢C 1 ), FINEMET (Fe 73.5 ⁢Si 13.5 ⁢B 9 Cu 1 ⁢Nb 3 ), NANOPERM (Fe 88 ⁢Zr 7⁢ B 4 ⁢Cu 1 ), and HITPERM (Fe 44 ⁢Co 44 ⁢Zr 7⁢ B 4 ⁢Cu 1 . Our findings demonstrate the potential of the ML framework for accelerated search of high-performance soft magnetic materials.

density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Condition Monitoring Methods and Technologies for Inservice Inspection and Testing of Nuclear Power Plant Components

This report was prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to explore the application of advanced technologies toward meeting the current and future regulatory requirements for maintenance and condition monitoring of structures, systems, and components. The advanced technologies considered in this work are advanced sensors and instrumentation, data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI), physics-based models, and digital twins (DT). The interest in the application of advanced technologies for condition monitoring in nuclear power plants continues to grow, and current and future licensees are expected to implement advanced technologies as part of their inservice inspection (ISI) and inservice testing (IST) programs. This report delineates the outcomes of an exploratory investigation into the implementation of advanced condition monitoring technologies to address ISI and IST requirements. A thorough review was conducted of the existing regulatory requirements for ISI and IST, along with an analysis of associated industry practices. Additionally, a state-of-the-art assessment was performed on advanced condition monitoring technologies frequently employed in non-nuclear sectors. This research incorporated two nuclear-specific case studies to illustrate the application of these technologies within the current nuclear fleet. The report provides an exhaustive discussion on the technical challenges, considerations, and opportunities associated with the deployment of advanced condition monitoring technologies. The following are key considerations in the application of advanced technologies for the ISI and IST of nuclear power plant components: • Developing adequate verification and validation procedures to confirm the functional and non-functional requirements, • Developing technical capabilities to conduct real-time asset condition monitoring, • Establishing guidance and protocol for modeling and simulation tools to continuously meet regulatory requirements, • Addressing trustworthiness, explainability, and interpretability of ML/AI methods, • Evaluating maintenance activities to maintain an adequate safety margin and avoid undesirable conditions, • Establishing cybersecure condition monitoring programs associated with a computer-based software system, and • Establishing standardized evaluation metrics for advanced condition monitoring programs. Interest in the use of advanced technologies for condition monitoring in ISI and IST programs continues to grow, and the technology is expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Adoption of advanced technologies for condition monitoring could have novel and unique impacts on regulatory activities associated with ISI and IST programs. The NRC is continuing to explore the regulatory aspects of advanced technologies as part of ISI and IST programs by pursuing additional research in this technical area.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning assisted unfolding for neutrino cross-section measurements with the OmniFold technique

The choice of unfolding method for a cross-section measurement is tightly coupled to the model dependence of the efficiency correction and the overall impact of cross-section modeling uncertainties in the analysis. A key issue is the dimensionality used in unfolding, as the kinematics of all outgoing particles in an event typically affect the reconstruction performance in a neutrino detector. OmniFold is an unfolding method that iteratively reweights a simulated dataset, using machine learning to utilize arbitrarily high-dimensional information, that has previously been applied to proton-proton and proton-electron datasets. This paper demonstrates OmniFold’s application to a neutrino cross-section measurement for the first time using a public T2K near detector simulated dataset, comparing its performance with traditional approaches using a mock data study.

Machine learning↗