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NASA NTRS2019

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30 percent and 50 percent of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions (Sterling et al. 2015), with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux (Panesar et al. 2016). Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50 percent, of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2018, ApJ, 864, 68.) Supported by NASA's Heliophysics Guest Investigators (HGI) Program and the MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center)/Hinode project.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Estimating Total Open Heliospheric Magnetic Flux

Over the solar-activity cycle, there are extended periods where significant discrepancies occur between the spacecraft-observed total (unsigned) open magnetic flux and that determined from coronal models. In this article, the total open heliospheric magnetic flux is computed using two different methods and then compared with results obtained from insitu interplanetary magnetic-field observations. The first method uses two different types of photospheric magnetic-field maps as input to the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model: i) traditional Carrington or diachronic maps, and ii) Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport model synchronic maps. The second method uses observationally derived helium and extreme-ultraviolet coronal-hole maps overlaid on the same magnetic-field maps in order to compute total open magnetic flux. The diachronic and synchronic maps are both constructed using magnetograms from the same source, namely the National Solar Observatory Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and Vector Spectromagnetograph. The results of this work show that the total open flux obtained from observationally derived coronal holes agrees remarkably well with that derived from WSA, especially near solar minimum. This suggests that, on average, coronal models capture well the observed large-scale coronal-hole structure over most of the solar cycle. Both methods show considerable deviations from total open flux deduced from spacecraft data, especially near solar maximum, pointing to something other than poorly determined coronal-hole area specification as the source of these discrepancies.

Wallace, S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Onset of the Magnetic Explosion in On-Disk Solar Coronal Jets

In our recent studies of ~10 quiet region and ~13 coronal hole coronal jets, we found that flux cancelation is the fundamental process in the buildup and triggering of the minifilament eruption that drives the production of the jet. Here, we investigate the onset and growth of the ten on-disk quiet region jets, using EUV images (304, 171, 193, and 94 Å) from SDO/AIA and magnetograms from SDO/HMI. We find that: (i) in all ten events the minifilament starts to rise at or before the onset of the signature of internal or external reconnection; (ii) in two out of ten jets brightening from the external reconnection starts at the same time as the slow rise of the minifilament and (iii) in six out of ten jets brightening from the internal reconnection starts before the start of the brightening from external reconnection. These observations show that the magnetic explosion in coronal jets begins in the same way as the magnetic explosion in filament eruptions that make solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our results indicate (1) that coronal jets are miniature versions of CME-producing eruptions and flux cancelation is the fundamental process that builds and triggers both the small-scale and the large-scale eruptions, and (2) that, contrary to the view of Moore et al (2018), the current sheet at which the external reconnection occurs in coronal jets usually starts to form at or after the onset of (and as a result of) the slow rise of the minifilament flux-rope eruption, and so is seldom of appreciable size before the onset of the slow rise of the minifilament flux-rope eruption.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Remarkably Narrow RHESSI X-Ray Flare on 2011 September 25

The unusually narrow X-ray source imaged with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) during an impulsive spike lasting for ~10 s during the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite C7.9 flare on 2011 September 25 (SOL2011-09-25T03:32) was only ~2'' wide and ~10'' long. Comparison with Helioseismsic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images at 1700 Å shows that the X-ray emission was primarily from a long ribbon in the region of positive polarity with little if any emission from the negative polarity ribbon. However, a thermal plasma source density of ~10(exp 12)/cu.cm estimated from the RHESSI-derived emission measure and source area showed that this could best be interpreted as a coronal hard X-ray source in which the accelerated electrons with energies less than ~50 keV were stopped by Coulomb collisions in the corona, thus explaining the lack of the more usual bright X-ray footpoints. Analysis of RHESSI spectra shows greater consistency with a multi-temperature distribution and a low-energy cutoff to the accelerated electron spectrum of 22 keV compared to 12 keV if a single-temperature distribution is assumed. This leads to a change in the lower limit on the total energy in electrons by an order of magnitude, given the steepness of the best-fit electron spectrum with a power-law index of ~6.

Brian Dennis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Network Jets as the Driver of Counter-streaming Flows in a Solar Filament

We investigate the driving mechanism of counter-streaming flows in a solar filament, using EUV images from SDO/AIA, line of sight magnetograms from SDO/HMI, IRIS SJ images, and H-alpha data from GONG. We find that: (i) persistent counter-streaming flows along adjacent threads of a small (100” long) solar filament is present; (ii) both ends of the solar filament are rooted at the edges of magnetic network flux lanes; (iii) recurrent small-scale jets (also known as network jets) occur at both ends of the filament; (iv) some of the network jets occur at the sites of flux cancelation between the majority-polarity flux and merging minority-polarity flux patches; (v) these multiple network jets clearly drive the counter-streaming flows along the adjacent threads of the solar filament for ~2 hours with an average speed of 70 km/s; (vi) some the network jets show base brightenings, analogous to the base brightenings of coronal jets; and (vii) the filament appears wider (4”) in EUV images than in H-alpha images (2.5”), consistent with previous studies. Thus, our observations show that counter-streaming flows in the filament are driven by network jets and possibly these driving network jet eruptions are triggered by flux cancelation.

Navdeep K Panesar↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST)

Understanding the emergence of magnetic flux from the solar interior through the photosphere and its global impact on the inner heliosphere is a key scientific goal of the heliophysics community. This white paper outlines the concept of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission, which will make measurements of solar variability from the solar interior, atmosphere, and the interplanetary (IP) medium. MOST will be a 4- spacecraft mission with one each at L4 (MOST1) and L5 (MOST2) and the other two (MOST3 and MOST4) at variable locations along Earth orbit. MOST1 and MOST2 will each carry seven remote-sensing and 3 in-situ instruments. All four spacecraft will carry a novel radio package known as the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH) that will systematically probe the magnetic content of transient IP structures including coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and stream interaction regions (SIRs). The Faraday rotation measurements will provide magnetic content of these structures at various heliocentric distances from the outer corona to Earth’s vicinity. Photospheric and/or chromospheric magnetograms will cover >70% of the solar surface providing synchronic maps needed for accurately modeling the corona and solar wind. EUV, coronagraph, radio spectrograph, and heliospheric imager (HI) observations from multiple viewpoints provide 3-d information on CMEs/CME-driven shocks, SIRs, and other solar wind structures. Hard X-ray imagers will provide the flare aspects of solar eruptions to complement the CME aspects. MOST, a 10-year mission, is well aligned with NASA’s Heliophysics objectives and will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve these objectives with broad participation from the heliophysics community.

N. Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On The Ultimate Fate of Interplanetary Dust

Interplanetary dust is interesting both from a physical point of view and from the awareness that the population poses a substantial collision risk to manned and unmanned spacecraft alike. Insight into the time evolution of the population gives important insights into solar system formation and, we argue, will offer clues as to the behavior of solar cycles predating modern ways of viewing the sun (e.g., sun spot counting, magnetograms, etc.). In addition, knowing how the dust population moves under the variety of forces each grain experiences will inform and better prepare manned and robotic spacecraft missions to mitigate the risk posed by dust. With these aims in mind, we developed a simple dynamical model for dust motion based on the work of Czechowski and Mann [1]. A byproduct of that development is a clear analytic model that demonstrates how the interplay of the Poynting-Robertson and Lorenz perturbation forces on the Keplerian motion of charged dust grains around the Sun can result in dust populations that move inward, outward, or remain confined in annular rings about the Sun. The timing of any of these behaviors is strongly dependent on the physical properties of the grain (mass, charge and reflectivity) and the evolution of the Sun’s dipole field.

Force models↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Global Coronal Models with Multiple Independent Observables

Global coronal models seek to produce an accurate physical representation of the Sun's atmosphere that can be used, for example, to drive space-weather models. Assessing their accuracy is a complex task, and there are multiple observational pathways to provide constraints and tune model parameters. Here, we combine several such independent constraints, defining a model-agnostic framework for standardized comparison. We require models to predict the distribution of coronal holes at the photosphere, and neutral line topology at the model's outer boundary. We compare these predictions to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of coronal hole locations, white-light Carrington maps of the streamer belt, and the magnetic sector structure measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe and 1 au spacecraft. We study these metrics for potential field source surface (PFSS) models as a function of source surface height and magnetogram choice, as well as comparing to the more physical Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) and the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) models. We find that simultaneous optimization of PFSS models to all three metrics is not currently possible, implying a trade-off between the quality of representation of coronal holes and streamer belt topology. WSA and MAS results show the additional physics that they include address this by flattening the streamer belt while maintaining coronal hole sizes, with MAS also improving coronal hole representation relative to WSA. We conclude that this framework is highly useful for inter- and intra-model comparisons. Integral to the framework is the standardization of observables required of each model, evaluating different model aspects.

S. T. Badman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nanoflare Heating of an X-Ray Bright Point

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can keep the solar corona to its multimillion kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing the nanoflare heated simulated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Here, we present a simulation of emission from an X-ray Bright Point (XBP) that was observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with concurrent observations from SDO/AIA and Hinode/XRT. We use EBTEL hydrodynamic code to simulate the XBP loops. Length and magnetic field strength of these loops are derived from the potential field extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by HMI/SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the looplength and magnetic field strength. The simulated outputs are used to predict the intensity of spectrally pure map of Fe-18, Fe-17, Ne-9 ,O-8, O-9, Ne-9 etc, which are then compared with the derived intensity from MaGIXS observation. Further we have predicted the intensity map as observed by AIA and XRT and compared them with the observation. We also estimated the temperature distribution of the XBP from the simulation and found a good agreement with the derived distribution from MaGIXS observation.

coronal heating↗
NASA NTRS2023

New Evidence on the Origin of Solar Wind Microstreams/Switchbacks

Microstreams are fluctuations in the solar wind speed and density associated with polarity-reversing folds in the magnetic field (also denoted switchbacks). Despite their long heritage, the origin of these microstreams/switchbacks remains poorly understood. For the first time, we investigated periodicities in microstreams during Parker Solar Probe (PSP) Encounter 10 to understand their origin. Our analysis was focused on the inbound corotation interval on 2021 November 19–21, while the spacecraft dove toward a small area within a coronal hole (CH). Solar Dynamics Observatory remote-sensing observations provide rich context for understanding the PSP in situ data. Extreme ultraviolet images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal numerous recurrent jets occurring within the region that was magnetically connected to PSP during intervals that contained microstreams. The periods derived from the fluctuating radial velocities in the microstreams (approximately 3, 5, 10, and 20 minutes) are consistent with the periods measured in the emission intensity of the jetlets at the base of the CH plumes, as well as in larger coronal jets and in the plume fine structures. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms reveal the presence of myriad embedded bipoles, which are known sources of reconnection-driven jets on all scales. Simultaneous enhancements in the PSP proton flux and ionic ( 3 He, 4 He, Fe, O) composition during the microstreams further support the connection with jetlets and jets. In keeping with prior observational and numerical studies of impulsive coronal activity, we conclude that quasiperiodic jets generated by interchange/ breakout reconnection at CH bright points and plume bases are the most likely sources of the microstreams/ switchbacks observed in the solar wind.

Pankaj Kumar↗
NASA NTRS2023

Large Photospheric Doppler Shift in Solar Active Region 12673: I. Field-Aligned Flows

Delta (δ) sunspots sometimes host fast photospheric flows along the central magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL). Here we study the strong Doppler shift signature in the central penumbral light bridge of solar active region NOAA 12673. Observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) indicate highly sheared, strong magnetic fields. Large Doppler shifts up to 3.2 km s −1 appeared during the formation of the light bridge and persisted for about 16 hours. A new velocity estimator, called DAVE4VMwDV, reveals fast converging and shearing motion along the PIL from HMI vector magnetograms, and recovers the observed Doppler signal much better than an old version of the algorithm. The inferred velocity vectors are largely (anti-)parallel to the inclined magnetic fields, suggesting that the observed Doppler shift contains significant contribution from the projected, field-aligned flows. High-resolution observations from the Hinode/Spectro-Polarimeter (SP) further exhibit a clear correlation between the Doppler velocity and the cosine of the magnetic inclination, which is in agreement with HMI results and consistent with a field-aligned flow of about 9.6 km s −1 . The complex Stokes profiles suggest significant gradients of physical variables along the line of sight. We discuss the implications on the δ-spot magnetic structure and the flow-driving mechanism.

Solar active region magnetic fields↗
NASA NTRS2023

Role of Small-Scale Impulsive Events in Heating the X-Ray Bright Points of the Quiet Sun

Small-scale impulsive events, known as nanoflares, are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can keep the solar corona hot at its multimillion-Kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the current generation of instruments; however, their presence can be inferred through indirect techniques such as Differential Emission Measure (DEM) analysis. Here, we employ this technique to investigate the possibility of nanoflare heating of the quiet corona during the minimum of solar cycle 24. We estimate the DEM of disk-integrated quiet Sun and X-ray bright points (XBP) using the observations from XSM on board the Chandrayaan-2 orbiter and AIA on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory. XBPs are found to be the dominant contributor to disk-integrated X-rays, with a radiative flux of ∼2 × 10 5 erg cm −2 s −1 . XBPs consist of small-scale loops associated with bipolar magnetic fields. We simulate such XBP loops using the EBTEL hydrodynamic code. The lengths and magnetic field strengths of these loops are obtained through a potential field extrapolation of the photospheric magnetogram. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares having an energy that depends on the loop properties. The composite nanoflare energy distribution for all the loops has a power-law slope close to −2.5. The simulation output is then used to obtain the integrated DEM. It agrees remarkably well with the observed DEM at temperatures above 1 MK, suggesting that the nanoflare distribution, as predicted by our model, can explain the XBP heating.

Solar coronal heating↗
NASA NTRS2023

Center-to-limb Variation of Transition-region Doppler Shifts in Active Regions

Studying Doppler shifts provides deep insights into the flow of mass and energy in the solar atmosphere. We perform a comprehensive measurement of Doppler shifts in the transition region and its center-to-limb variation (CLV) in the strong-field regions (∣B∣ ≥ 50 G) of 50 active regions (ARs), using the Si iv 1394 Å line recorded by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrometer. To locate the ARs and identify strong-field regions, we have used the magnetograms obtained by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We find that in strong-field regions, on average, all the ARs show a mean redshift ranging between 4 and 11 km s−1, which varies with ARs. These flows show a mild CLV, with sizable magnitudes at the limb and substantial scatter in the mid-longitude range. Our observations do not support the idea that redshifts in the lower transition region (T ≲ 0.1 MK) are produced by field-aligned downflows as a result of impulsive heating and they warrant an alternative interpretation, such as a downflow of type-II spicules in the presence of a chromospheric wall created by cooler type-I spicules.

Abhishek Rajhans↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-ray Bright Point Observed by MaGIXS

Nanoflares have been considered to be one of the most likely candidates for heating the solar corona to multi-million kelvin temperatures. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with today's instruments, but their presence may be established by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions to observed emissions. We present a simulation of emission from an X-ray Bright Point (XBP) detected by the MaGIXS, as well as simultaneous observations from SDO/AIA and Hinode/XRT. To simulate the XBP loops, we utilize the HYDRAD code. The length and magnetic field strength of these loops are determined using potential field extrapolation of SDO/HMI's observed photospheric magnetogram. Each loop is considered to be heated by random nanoflares, the amplitude and frequency of which are governed by the length of the loop and the strength of the magnetic field. The simulated outputs are used to estimate the intensity of spectrally pure maps of Fe-18, Fe-17, Ne-9, O-8, O-9, Ne-9, and so on, which is then compared to the intensity determined from MaGIXS observations. In addition, we derived the intensity maps obtained by AIA and XRT and compared them to the observed data. The composite distribution of the delay time of the nanoflares for which the simulated loops morphology and intensities match with observation shows a peak at 200s-500s, indicating that most of the nanoflares have a high/intermediate frequency.

coronal heating↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Ready Dataset of Acoustic Power Maps for Detection of Active Region Emergence

The development of an accurate forecast for solar eruptive activity has become increasingly important in order to prevent any potential impact on activities in space and the Earth's environment. It is therefore crucial to detect active regions before they appear on the solar surface and create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances. In this work, 9TB of solar data (SDO/HMI dopplergrams, magnetograms and continuum intensity maps) involving the emergence of 61 NOAA solar active regions since 2010 were processed using the NASA HECC capabilities. An acoustic power maps time-series dataset was created (for four different frequency ranges and processed to take into account the solar sphere geometric effect ) which can be used for understanding the dynamics of the solar surface and train a variety of ML models. The calculated acoustic power maps carry precursor information associated with the decrease in continuum intensity on the solar surface, verifying older helioseismology research. Our results show that a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) model, with a modest layer depth and the right hyperparameters tuned, when trained on this solar acoustic power maps dataset can predict without false negatives a drop in intensity (associated with the emergence of the active region), up to 18 hours in advance.

SMD↗