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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling for a Digital Twin-Based Remote Operation System Framework

New reactor designs and technologies are being developed to grow and advance the nuclear industry. Microreactors are one of the many new concepts for advancing the industry. Microreactors are very small reactors generally designed to have an operating power of 20 MWth or less. They are ideal for many applications in which it would not be feasible to have a large-scale reactor, such as powering remote communities, military bases, and mining sites. Many of these applications currently rely on diesel generators for power, and replacing those generators with the carbon-free energy of a microreactor is a major driving factor for microreactor development. However, most of the use cases for microreactors are in isolated locations where construction and labor costs are much higher. Microreactors will need to be comparable to other energy production methods for their deployment to be successful. Remotely operating the microreactor has a great potential to benefit the economics and make it more cost competitive. With remote operations, the operation facility location could be strategically chosen based on factors such as construction costs, workforce size, etc. The benefits of remote operations could be leveraged even more if the remote operation system is semi-autonomous. If the remote operation system is semi-autonomous, more microreactors could be operated and monitored from one remote operation facility. Additionally, with the system handling some tasks for the human operator, it could reduce the number of operating staff necessary for the microreactor. Digital twins can be used to introduce a level of automation to the remote operation system. Digital twins are capable of component monitoring, system operation and control, and predictive performance [1]. All of those features are important for a successful semi-autonomous remote operation system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed Estimation of the Covariance Matrix for Various Neutron Spectra

A method for estimating covariance matrices which capture the uncertainties in calculated reactor spectra has been developed. This method is based on perturbing the parameters of a physics-based analytic model fitted to a calculated spectrum. The covariance of the perturbed analytic spectra imposes energy-dependent correlations due to the physics of the neutron processes in the reactor, i.e., a fission component, a 1/E down-scatting component, and a thermal Maxwellian component. An analytic model is developed which is shown to produce good fits to several reactor environments. The covariance matrices produced via this method are then used as the prior spectrum in STAYSL least squares spectrum adjustment where it is combined with integral metrics, such as activation measurements, to produce a high-fidelity neutron spectrum characterization. It was concluded that the methodology showed agreeable results for the ACRR free-field spectrum adjustment in STAYSL resulting in a 𝜒 2 value of 2.21 (per degree of freedom), but further work is needed to describe scattering and interface regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Low-Temperature (LTP) Ignition Technologies for Multi-Mode Engines through the Development of a Validated High-Fidelity LTP Model for Predicative Simulations Tools

The goal of multi-mode engine architectures is to extend current lean-burn dilution limits with renewable fuels, which requires spark plugs to deposit high energies (hundreds of mJ) in order to initiate ignition and complete combustion. At elevated energy deposition rates, spark plugs experience increased electrode erosion and thermal losses, which ultimately shortens the spark-plug lifetime and lowers ignition efficiency. As such, in order to safeguard the efficiency gains of multi-mode concepts, new and improved ignition technologies are required. Recently, non-equilibrium low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have been shown to promote energy-efficient ignition via quenching and transport of electronically excited atoms and molecules, selective radical production and fast heating of hydrocarbon/air mixtures [1-2]. Thus, LTP is seen as a technology that can potentially improve the energy extraction efficiency of fuels, while enabling kinetically controlled combustion modes towards fuel leaner conditions to realize current DOE VTO goals of improving the sustainability of future mobility [3]. Although many previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of plasma-assisted ignition to enhance combustion, the detailed enhancement mechanisms remain largely unknown, especially for oxygenated fuels and at elevated pressures that are most relevant to practical engine conditions. These barriers hinder the development of accurate and comprehensive numerical models that seek to describe LTP-based ignition in existing engine design software tools and methods. Current state-of-the-art simulation capabilities for LTP ignition systems are in need of improvements since they deliver qualitative results only due to important limitations of existing approaches. Firstly, validated kinetic models with elementary steps for plasma discharges in oxygenated fuel/air mixtures of relevance to the transportation sector are required. Such kinetic models do not exist at present and will be developed and validated within this project. Secondly, plasma discharges and reactive mixture ignition are multi-scale, unsteady processes requiring high-performance numerical methods and software that execute efficiently on DOE supercomputers. Such software does not exist at present and will be developed and applied to practical LTP ignition scenarios as part of this project. Thirdly, experimental databases that are tailored to serve as benchmark in support of the development of predictive computational models of LTP ignition do not exist and will be part of this project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MATSE: Multi-fidelity assisted time-series emulation

I am going to present my work on multifidelity timeseries models at MS&T in Pittsburgh. We develop efficient machine learning methodologies to accelerate time-series predictions from a hierarchy of complex physics-based models.

Katona, Ryan Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Scale Modeling for Plasma-Enhanced Ammonia Decomposition over Carbides and Nitrides

Ammonia is a carbon-free hydrogen carrier, but its decomposition typically requires high temperatures over costly Ru-based catalysts due to the large barrier for N≡N bond formation. We develop a multiscale framework combining density functional theory, zero-dimensional plasma kinetics, and microkinetic modeling to elucidate how non-thermal plasma (NTP) enables low-temperature NH 3 decomposition over Co-based carbides and nitrides, benchmarked against Ru and Co. Under thermal conditions, all catalysts are limited by N≡N bond formation, with Co 3 C(001) most active owing to its negatively charged surface, strong N* binding, and low activation barriers of N≡N bond formation. Plasma-induced vibrational excitation of NH 3 and its reactive radicals promotes a radical-driven •NH 2 –N* coupling pathway that dominates on Co 3 C(001) and Co 3 N(001), shifting the rate-limiting step to NH 3 (v1) dissociation, increasing turnover frequencies by up to 6 orders of magnitude, and reducing the temperature needed to reach a turnover frequency of 5 s –1 from >680 °C (Ru and Co under thermal condition) to 267 °C (Co 3 C) and 415 °C (Co 3 N). These results identify Co-based carbides and nitrides as promising plasma-active catalysts for energy-efficient hydrogen production from ammonia.

ammonia decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Upgrade of EMRALD to a Modern JavaScript-based Framework

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at Idaho National Laboratory for researching the capabilities of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It provides a simple interface to represent complex interactions often seen when developing dynamic models. EMRALD can also interface with other applications by modifying inputs, running, and using their results within EMRALD for dynamic and integrated assessment. This report goes over the work performed as part of the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to upgrade the EMRALD software.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Update on Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS)

Automation of control systems is expected to be important in the economic and safe operation of microreactors. There is a need to develop and demonstrate automated control for microreactors, along with the development of testbeds for this purpose. This report provides updates on the status of a microreactor automated control system (MACS) testbed developed to test control system automation. While a future goal is to demonstrate this system using a prototypic microreactor such as MARVEL, the present focus is on developing and testing within a non-nuclear testbed. The testbed, developed in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, includes hardware-in-the-loop simulation and uses a Modelica-based model of a prototypic microreactor for use in testing control automation. Research to date at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has focused on the development of prototypic software for automating plant-level control under selected scenarios. Empirical testing on the integrated MACS testbed was performed to quantify key characteristics of the integrated testbed and to demonstrate the use of the software for automating the calculation and use of actuation setpoints for selected load-following scenarios. Ongoing research is focused on integrating additional control algorithms that utilize data from newly included sensors within the MACS hardware testbed, as well as demonstrating and assessing the performance of the different automated control algorithms on multiple additional operational scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Triso Analysis Tool For Predictive Source Terms

Source term modeling for TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs, but few are available in the open literature. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that can be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. To meet this need, the TRISO Analysis Tool for Predictive Source terms (TRISO-ATOPS) was developed. This model calculates the release of the key safety-important fission products by diffusion through the kernel, silicon carbide and graphite based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system for removing fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. From this initial condition, the model calculates the fission product release for any transient temperature profile, and the fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional radiological dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor TRISO fuel development program. The example cases in this work demonstrate the flexibility of the model

Stoyer, Benjamin [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of solvents for integrated CO 2 absorption and electrochemical reduction systems

Abstract Solvent‐based electrochemical CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) enables the production of chemicals or fuels using CO 2 from a preceding absorption process. Employing previously tested CO 2 capture solvents does not ensure their suitability for either CO 2 R or integrated CO 2 absorption‐reduction. We propose solvent selection criteria that include the CO 2 solubility, kinetic constant, ionic conductivity, concentration of the bicarbonate, carbamate, and solvent cation in the CO 2 ‐loaded solution, and sustainability indicators. They are implemented for solvent selection (a) from novel, aqueous mixtures of N ‐methylcyclohexylamine (MCA) with piperazine (PZ), 2‐amino‐2‐methyl‐1‐propanol (AMP), potassium hydroxide (KOH), and potassium chloride (KCl) and (b) from aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA), AMP, KOH, MCA, and PZ solutions. Versions of a modified Kent‐Eisenberg model for strong bases, carbamate, and non‐carbamate‐forming amine solutions are developed and parameterized through experimental equilibrium measurements. CO 2 R experimental results are presented for solutions of KOH and MCA + KOH, as these indicate desired trade‐offs for CO 2 absorption and reduction.

Amines↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption (Research Performance Final Report)

This is the research performance final report for the project entitled: Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption This project was able to achieve the DOE’s goals of developing new modeling tools to understand MDHD vehicle operation and adoption. The first modeling tool is a fleet-level techno-economic analysis model capable of estimating energy use and associated environmental and cost impacts for electrified and conventional vehicles of any MDHD vocation, using real-world cost and operations data, including approaches to optimizing schedules for charging and/or vehicle dispatch. The second modeling tool is a system-level, bottom-up, agent-based adoption model capable of generating geographically-resolved estimates of market projections for MDHD vehicles and charging infrastructure. These tools will be developed and published to serve dual purposes as analysis tools for researchers, and decision-support tools for decision makers within the MDHD system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2024

"Source Term Modeling for Advanced Gas Micro-Reactors"

Maintaining the safety of the public, environment, and operating personnel is the most important factor in designing, operating, maintaining, and decommissioning nuclear reactors. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of micro-reactors employing TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel. In gas reactors, TRISO fuel plays an important role in the safety case for high temperature reactors because of the fission product retention properties of the fuel. This ability enables the use of a functional containment strategy for the reactor where multiple barriers are used to prevent fission product release to the environment. Part of the safety analysis of these advanced reactors is the assessment of radionuclide releases under normal and accident conditions through the multiple credited safety barriers. Using conservative assumptions, a mechanistic analysis can be performed to quantify these releases that combines the probabilistic assessment of failure with analytic solutions to radionuclide transport equations. Source term modeling for TRISO fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs; however, these models are outdated, in many cases proprietary, and need updates to be applied to the current state of TRISO fuel technology and alternative gas reactor core configurations [1]. Currently, the only publicly available source term assessment for gas reactors is an expert-based Monte Carlo simulation based on the effectiveness of the fuel kernel, coating layers, and graphite block in a modular high temperature gas reactor [2]. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that could be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. The release is calculated by the diffusion of the key safety important fission products through the kernel, silicon carbide (SiC), graphite for both intact and defective TRISO particles based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system to remove fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. The model then can calculate the fission product release for any transient temperature profile and fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO fuel development program. The model is coded in python with inputs and outputs in excel spreadsheets, as well as python plotting utilities to aid in the interpretation of the results. References: [1] INL, NGNP Mechanistic Source Term White Paper, INL-10-17997, July 2010. [2] David A. Petti, Richard R. Hobbins, Peter Lowry, Hans Gougar, “Representative Source Terms and The Influence of Reactor Attributes on Functional Containment in Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors,” Nuclear Technology, Vol. 184, p. 181-197, Nov. 2013.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Control for Efficient Load Shifting with Thermal Energy Storage in Existing HVAC Systems

This project developed the integration of a direct-contact heat exchanger (DCHX) based thermal energy storage (TES) system with a chiller–air handling unit (AHU) plant to evaluate its potential for reducing building energy costs. Detailed physical models of the TES unit, building envelope, and HVAC components were developed alongside simplified control-oriented models to support both high-fidelity simulation and real-time optimization. Two control strategies were implemented and compared: a rule-based control (RBC) aligned with utility time-of-use (ToU) rates, and a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging forecasts of building load, weather, and internal gains.Simulation results show that the RBC strategy reduced daily electricity costs by around 30% by shifting cooling production from on-peak to off-peak hours. In contrast, the MPC strategy achieved significantly greater performance, reducing daily operating costs by up to 44% and peak-hour costs by more than 60%. Both strategies maintained indoor thermal comfort within acceptable limits, with MPC further improving load distribution and reducing equipment cycling.The outcomes confirm that TES integration, particularly when coordinated with advanced predictive control, can provide substantial cost savings and on-peak demand reduction. . These findings directly support the U.S. Department of Energy’s goals for grid-interactive efficient buildings and demonstrate the potential of TES-enabled HVAC systems for scalable deployment across the commercial building.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗