Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

Graphite Microstructural Characterization Using Time-Domain and Correlation-Based Ultrasonics

Among techniques that have been used to determine elastic modulus in nuclear graphites, ultrasonic methods have enjoyed wide use and standards using contacting piezoelectric tranducers have been developed to ensure repeatability of these types of measurements. However, the use of couplants and the pressures used to effectively couple transducers to samples can bias measurements and produce results that are not wholly related to the properties of the graphite itself. In this work, we have investigated the use of laser ultrasonic methods for making elastic modulus measurements in nuclear graphites. These methods use laser-based transmitters and receivers to gather data and do not require use of ultrasonic couplants or mechanical contact with the sample. As a result, information directly related to the elastic responses of graphite can be gathered even if the graphite is porous, brittle and compliant. In particular, we have demonstrated the use of laser ultrasonics for the determination of both Young’s modulus and shear modulus in a range of nuclear graphites including those that are being considered for use in future nuclear reactors. These results have been analyzed to assess the contributions of porosity and microcracking to the elastic responses of these graphites. Laser-based methods have also been used to assess the moduli of NBG-18 and IG-110 where samples of each grade were oxidized to produce specific changes in porosity. These data were used to develop new models for the elastic responses of nuclear graphites and these models have been used to infer specific changes in graphite microstructure that occur during oxidation that affect elastic modulus. Specifically, we show how ultrasonic measurements in oxidized graphites are consistent with nano/microscale oxidation processes where basal plane edges react more readily than basal plane surfaces. We have also shown the use of laser-based methods to perform shear-wave birefringence measurements and have shown how these measurements can be used to assess elastic anisotropy in nuclear graphites. Using models developed in this program, ultrasonic data were interpreted to extract orientation distribution coefficients that could be used to represent anisotropy in these materials. This demonstration showed the use of ultrasonic methods to quantify anisotropy and how these methods provide more detailed information than do measurements of thermal expansion – a technique commonly used for assessing anisotropy in nuclear graphites. Finally, we have employed laser-based, ultrasonic-correlation techniques in attempts to quantify aspects of graphite microstructure such as pore size and distribution. Results of these measurements indicate that additional work must be performed to make this ultrasonic approach viable for quantitative microstructural characterization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Life Cycle Analysis and Life Cycle Costing for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Management and Materials Redeployment to Support ARPA-E’s Potential Program on Waste to Energy and Materials

Municipal solid waste infrastructure in the United States contains complex supply chains to transport, sort, and sequester waste. This project developed models to estimate the environmental and economic costs of waste infrastructure in the U.S. using data from several municipalities. Life cycle costing (LCC) models were developed for waste management relevant supply chain steps, including waste collection, sorting, landfilling, waste-to-energy, ash processing, and recycling. A waste-to-materials and energy (WTM&E) life cycle analysis (LCA) and LCC dashboard was developed in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and an LCC tool was developed for additional analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins

This repository of global hydrogeologic datasets contains aquifer properties on 0.5° scale, including depth to groundwater (Fan et al., 2013), aquifer thickness (de Graaf et al., 2015), WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011), porosity and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014), digitized and geo-processed from their respective sources. Globally gridded aquifer properties could be used independently to estimate global groundwater availability or used as critical inputs to the superwell model to simulate groundwater extraction and provide estimates of pumped volumes and unit costs under user-specific scenarios. Key resources related to this data are: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. superwell model repository which uses this data to simulate groundwater extraction and provides estimates of the global extractable volumes and unit-costs ($/km3) of accessible groundwater production under user-specified extraction scenarios. Repository Overview Main output: aquifer_properties.csv contains all processed outputs, including aquifer properties like porosity, permeability, aquifer thickness, and depth to groundwater. shapefiles.zip: contains all digitized GIS databases and shapefile for all aquifer properties prep_inputs.R: R script that processes the shapefiles to produce the aquifer_properties file plot_inputs.R: R script for plotting the maps and conducting preliminary analysis on the available groundwater volume basin_to_country_mapping.csv, basin_country_region_mapping.csv and continent_county_mapping.csv provide the mapping between continents, 32 energy-economic macro regions, countries, and water basins for post-processing aquifer_properties.csv Maps: Each map visualizes the spatial distribution of one of the aquifer properties across the globe map_in_Porosity.png map_in_Permeability.png map_in_Aquifer_thickness.png map_in_Depth_to_water.png map_in_Grid_area_km.png map_in_WHYClass.png Sample inputs sample_inputs.py: this script samples inputs from the aquifer_properties dataset, ensuring the sampled and original inputs maintain the same distributions sampled_data_100.csv contains 100 sampled data points and sampled_data_100.png compares their distributions Dataset Overview The main outputs are consolidated in a comprehensive aquifer_properties.csv file and include the following fields: GridCellID: Unique identifier for each (roughly 0.5°) grid cell Continent: Continent name Country: Country name GCAM_basin_ID: Identifier for GCAM hydrologic basin Basin_long_name: Full name of the basin WHYClass: Hydrogeologic classification based on WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011) Porosity: Soil porosity (%) (Gleeson et al., 2014) Permeability: Soil permeability (in square meters; Gleeson et al., 2014) Aquifer_thickness: Thickness of the aquifer (in meters; de Graaf et al., 2015) Depth_to_water: Depth to groundwater (in meters; Fan et al., 2013) Grid_area: Area of the grid cell (in square meters) Key References The datasets are digitized versions of global hydrogeologic properties from the following key literature sources: Depth to Groundwater: Fan, Y., Li, H., & Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth. Science, 339(6122), 940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881 Aquifer Thickness: de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(2), 823-837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015 Porosity and Permeability: Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2014). A glimpse beneath earth's surface: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 3891-3898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856 Aquifer classes: Richts, A., Struckmeier, W. F., & Zaepke, M. (2011). WHYMAP and the Groundwater Resources Map of the World 1:25,000,000. In J. A. A. Jones (Ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources: A Critical Element in the Global Water Crisis (pp. 159-173). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_10 Cite as Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or open an issue in superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

aquifer thickness↗

EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON TEXTURE EVOLUTION IN TANTALUM DURING DYNAMIC-EXTRUSION

Motivation of this project is: (1) Build a furnace as a cross section of a gun barrel capable of temperatures up to 600 Celsius; (2) To examine the influence of temperature, texture, and extrusion velocity in Tantalum; (3) Constrain parameters to improve and assist in constitutive model development using high speed imaging & PDV (in-situ); (4) Understanding microstructural development in materials using the dynamic extrusion technique; and (5) Use as a validation test for developing fracture models important to industry, the DoD, and the DOE.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aging Behavior of the Viton® Fluoroelastomer O-Rings in the 9975 Shipping Package

The 9975 Type B shipping package is used within the DOE complex for shipping special nuclear materials. This package is re-certified annually in accordance with Safety Analysis Report requirements. The package is also used at the Savannah River Site as part of the long-term storage configuration of special nuclear materials. As such, the packages do not undergo annual recertification during storage, with uncertainty as to how long some of the package components will meet their functional requirements in the storage environment. The packages are currently approved for up to 15 years storage, and work continues to provide a technical basis to extend that period. This paper describes efforts by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to extend the service life estimate of Viton® GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings used in the 9975 shipping package. O-rings of both compositions are undergoing accelerated aging at elevated temperature, and are periodically tested for compression stress relaxation (CSR) behavior and leak performance. The CSR behavior of O-rings was evaluated at temperatures from 79 °C to 177 °C. These collective data were used to develop predictive models for extrapolation of CSR behavior to relevant service temperatures (< 75 °C). O-rings were also aged in Primary Containment Vessel (PCV) fixtures at temperatures ranging from 79 °C to 232 °C. The fixtures are helium leak tested periodically to determine if they remain leak-tight. The PCV fixture tests demonstrate that the 9975 O-rings will remain leak-tight at temperatures up to 149 °C for 3 years or more, and no leak failures have been observed with up to 8 years aging at 93 °C. Significantly longer periods of leak-tight service are expected at the lower temperatures actually experienced in the storage environment. The predictive model developed from the CSR data conservatively indicates a service life of more than 20 years at the bounding temperature of 75 °C. Although the relationship between CSR behavior and leak-tight performance has not been established for this design, the CSR predictions for this O-ring are conservative relative to leak-tight performance to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel Approach to PV Inverter Modeling and Simulation Leveraging Experiments, Learning Based Modeling and Co-Simulation: Preprint

Photovoltaic inverter (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. Due to this proprietary nature, it is not possible to share EMT domain models for system studies. This research work presents a novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to enhance the PV inverter modeling. We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests including voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data was used in learning-based model training. This learning-based model was imported into an Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulation tool using co-simulation techniques to complete the modeling effort and integrate the model into an EMT simulation tool. The three key components in this research work are the design of experimental setup, use of learning-based approach for model development and use of co-simulation to complete the approach. The proposed approach will allow users to develop a model in a really short period of time and achieve reasonable inverter models.

artificial intelligence↗

The Single Column Atmosphere Model Version 6 (SCAM6): Not a Scam but a Tool for Model Evaluation and Development

The Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) is a single column model version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Here we describe the functionality and features of SCAM6, available as part of CAM6 in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). SCAM6 features a wide selection of standard cases, as well as the ability to easily configure a case specified by the user based on a particular point in a CAM 3-D simulation. This work illustrates how SCAM6 reproduces CAM6 results for physical parameterizations, mostly of moisture and clouds. We demonstrate how SCAM6 can be used for model development through different physics selections, as well as with parameter sweep experiments to highlight the sensitivity of cloud properties to the specification of the vapor deposition process in the cloud microphysics. Furthermore, we use SCAM6 to illustrate the sensitivity of CAM6 cloud radiative properties and precipitation to variable drop number (cloud microphysics properties). Finally, we illustrate how SCAM6 can be used to explore critical emergent processes such as cloud feedbacks and show that CAM6 cloud responses to surface warming in stratus and stratocumulus regimes are similar to those in CAM5. CAM6 has a larger response in the shallow cumulus regime than CAM5. CAM6 cloud feedbacks in the shallow cumulus regime are sensitive to turbulence parameters. SCAM6 is thus a valuable tool for model development, evaluation, and scientific analy sis and an important part of the model hierarchy in Community Earth System Model, version 2.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enforcing elemental mass and energy balances for reduced order models

Development of economically feasible gasification and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies requires a variety of software tools to optimize the designs of not only the key devices involved (e., g., gasifier, CO{sub 2} adsorber) but also the entire power generation system. High-fidelity models such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models are capable of accurately simulating the detailed flow dynamics, heat transfer, and chemistry inside the key devices. However, the integration of CFD models within steady-state process simulators, and subsequent optimization of the integrated system, still presents significant challenges due to the scale differences in both time and length, as well the high computational cost. A reduced order model (ROM) generated from a high-fidelity model can serve as a bridge between the models of different scales. While high-fidelity models are built upon the principles of mass, momentum, and energy conservations, ROMs are usually developed based on regression-type equations and hence their predictions may violate the mass and energy conservation laws. A high-fidelity model may also have the mass and energy balance problem if it is not tightly converged. Conservations of mass and energy are important when a ROM is integrated to a flowsheet for the process simulation of the entire chemical or power generation system, especially when recycle streams are connected to the modeled device. As a part of the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, we developed a software framework for generating ROMs from CFD simulations and integrating them with Process Modeling Environments (PMEs) for system-wide optimization. This paper presents a method to correct the results of a high-fidelity model or a ROM such that the elemental mass and energy are conserved perfectly. Correction factors for the flow rates of individual species in the product streams are solved using a minimization algorithm based on Lagrangian multiplier method. Enthalpies of product streams are also modified to enforce the energy balance. The approach is illustrated for two ROMs, one based on a CFD model of an entrained-flow gasifier and the other based on the CFD model of a multiphase CO{sub 2} adsorber.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

SMART Mobility. Modeling Workflow Development, Implementation, and Results Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow effort. The SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow was developed to evaluate new transportation technologies such as connectivity, automation, sharing, and electrification through multi-level systems analysis that captures the dynamic interactions between technologies. By integrating multiple models across different levels of fidelity and scale, the Workflow yields insights about the influence of new mobility and vehicle technologies at the system level. For information about the other Pillars, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Bubble Mass Transport Measurement in the Large-Scale Test Loops at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Molten salts are complex fluids that incorporate multi-phase behavior depending on the chemistry and the physical properties of the entrained components. These components include the carrier salt, the actinide fuel, and fission, activation, and corrosion products, the concentrations of which depends on the burnup history of the salt. Radionuclide transport from the salt into the cover gas / off-gas system depends on volatility as predicted by thermochemistry, but data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) conducted in the late 1960s suggest that bubble formation and transport are also important. Anomalously high fractions of noble metals were found in the off-gas system and were attributed to transportation with parent salt aerosols and their association with rising noble gas bubbles. The prediction of such phenomena requires coupled neutronic, thermal hydraulic, and chemical equilibrium calculations, the framework of which is being developed within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). However, separate effects tests and models of experiments using tools such as SAM and Thermochimica can guide model developers through important processes. Conversely, model development guides the choice of experiments and systems to provide data that are relevant for validation. This report describes several experiments that tracked gas transport in molten salts, ranging from small-scale systems to large-scale loops. Gas transportation in a molten salt, LiCl-KCl, has been studied using the shadowgraph technique. Sensors such as residual gas analysis, Raman spectroscopy, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy have been tested for off-gas measurements. These data were used to interpret how the gases move through the upstream salt / cover gas and the interface between them. Differential pressure measurements were able to detect individual gas bubbles as they popped at the liquid–gas interface. Salt aerosols were collected on a cascade impactor. Their formation was also observed directly via the shadowgraph method, and most of these aerosols were launched ballistically into the cover gas. Fine mists could also be observed. Convection currents through the salt were visualized and can be used to calculate the thermophysical properties of the salt itself. The apparatuses described in this report and in a previous work (McFarlane et al. 2023) have been commissioned and are available for use in making further measurements of salt/surrogate fission product behavior. Novel approaches using neutron imaging are planned for the study of fluoride salts, which cannot be contained in quartz, so shadowgraph visualization is not available. Bubble transport in convective flow and in a slow-moving salt column are planned. The mobile laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system is available for several applications, including iodine capture in a molten hydroxide scrubber, H2 transport though molten salts to complement Raman analysis, and online tracking of salt aerosol generation, transport, and deposition. This report summarizes the findings from FY24 and the plans for FY25. The work completes milestone M2AT-24OR0702013 of the DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Technology, Molten Salt Reactor Campaign, DOE-NE-5.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Visual Data-Analytics of Large-Scale Parallel Discrete-Event Simulations

Parallel discrete-event simulation (PDES) is an important tool in the codesign of extreme-scale systems because PDES provides a cost-effective way to evaluate designs of highperformance computing systems. Optimistic synchronization algorithms for PDES, such as Time Warp, allow events to be processed without global synchronization among the processing elements. A rollback mechanism is provided when events are processed out of timestamp order. Although optimistic synchronization protocols enable the scalability of large-scale PDES, the performance of the simulations must be tuned to reduce the number of rollbacks and provide an improved simulation runtime. To enable efficient large-scale optimistic simulations, one has to gain insight into the factors that affect the rollback behavior and simulation performance. We developed a tool for ROSS model developers that gives them detailed metrics on the performance of their large-scale optimistic simulations at varying levels of simulation granularity. Model developers can use this information for parameter tuning of optimistic simulations in order to achieve better runtime and fewer rollbacks. In this work, we instrument the ROSS optimistic PDES framework to gather detailed statistics about the simulation engine. We have also developed an interactive visualization interface that uses the data collected by the ROSS instrumentation to understand the underlying behavior of the simulation engine. The interface connects real time to virtual time in the simulation and provides the ability to view simulation data at different granularities. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by performing a visual analysis of the dragonfly network topology model provided by the CODES simulation framework built on top of ROSS. The instrumentation needs to minimize overhead in order to accurately collect data about the simulation performance. To ensure that the instrumentation does not introduce unnecessary overhead, we perform a scaling study that compares instrumented ROSS simulations with their noninstrumented counterparts in order to determine the amount of perturbation when running at different simulation scales.

Ross, Caitlin↗

Process design for calcination of nickel-based cathode materials by in situ characterization and multiscale modeling

Developing battery materials towards commercial use, from the early discovery through synthesis, processing, scaling up, and eventually to industrial production, may take decades. A notable example is Ni-based layered oxides, which were discovered as early as 1950s and intensively pursued as cathode active materials (CAMs) since the early 90s but have yet to realize their full commercial potential. Significant efforts have been devoted to materials development aiming at improving performance, far less to process development for large-scale synthesis and processing of CAMs. In this paper, we present a rational design of calcination for scalable production of Ni-based CAMs. We start with an overview of the current understanding and knowledge gaps hindering rational process design and scaling-up of the calcination process. Then with specific examples, we demonstrate how to tackle those fundamental challenges through in situ characterization and multiscale modeling. Finally, we conclude by providing perspectives on the remaining challenges and emerging opportunities in commercial development of Ni-based cathodes, calling for more endeavors in this field.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Chemiluminescence-based multivariate sensing of local equivalence ratios in premixed atmospheric methane-air flames

Chemiluminescence emissions from OH*, CH*, C2, and CO2 formed within the reaction zone of premixed flames depend upon the fuel-air equivalence ratio in the burning mixture. In the present paper, a new partial least square regression (PLS-R) based multivariate sensing methodology is investigated and compared with an OH*/CH* intensity ratio-based calibration model for sensing equivalence ratio in atmospheric methane-air premixed flames. Five replications of spectral data at nine different equivalence ratios ranging from 0.73 to 1.48 were used in the calibration of both models. During model development, the PLS-R model was initially validated with the calibration data set using the leave-one-out cross validation technique. Since the PLS-R model used the entire raw spectral intensities, it did not need the nonlinear background subtraction of CO2 emission that is required for typical OH*/CH* intensity ratio calibrations. An unbiased spectral data set (not used in the PLS-R model development), for 28 different equivalence ratio conditions ranging from 0.71 to 1.67, was used to predict equivalence ratios using the PLS-R and the intensity ratio calibration models. It was found that the equivalence ratios predicted with the PLS-R based multivariate calibration model matched the experimentally measured equivalence ratios within 7%; whereas, the OH*/CH* intensity ratio calibration grossly underpredicted equivalence ratios in comparison to measured equivalence ratios, especially under rich conditions ( > 1.2). The practical implications of the chemiluminescence-based multivariate equivalence ratio sensing methodology are also discussed.

Cross validation↗

Local composition activity coefficient model for mixed-gas adsorption equilibria

Taking into consideration the adsorbate–adsorbent interactions, a novel activity coefficient model is derived from the non-random two-liquid theory for mixed-gas adsorption equilibria. In contrast with the conventional activity coefficient models developed for bulk liquids, the new model correctly predicts negative deviations from ideality for adsorbed phase mixtures including azeotropic behavior exhibited by selected gas-adsorbent systems. Here, the requiring a single binary interaction parameter per adsorbate–adsorbate pair, the model successfully correlates wide varieties of binary adsorption isotherm data and it should be a powerful engineering thermodynamic tool in correlating and predicting mixed-gas adsorption equilibria.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Economic Impacts from Indiana's First 1,000 Megawatts of Wind Power

The magnitude of Indiana's available wind resource indicates that the development of wind power infrastructure has the potential to support millions of dollars of economic activity in the state. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, are tools used to estimate some of the economic impacts of energy projects at the state level. JEDI calculates results in the form of jobs, earnings, and economic output in three categories: project development and onsite labor, local revenue and supply chain, and induced impacts. According to this analysis, the first 1,000 MW of wind power development in Indiana (projects built between 2008 and 2011): supported employment totaling more than 4,400 full-time-equivalent jobs in Indiana during the construction periods; supports approximately 260 ongoing Indiana jobs; supported nearly $570 million in economic activity for Indiana during the construction periods; supported and continues to support nearly $40 million in annual Indiana economic activity during the operating periods; generates more than $8 million in annual property taxes; generates nearly $4 million annually in income for Indiana landowners who lease their land for wind energy projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗

2014-2018 Summary of NCAR activities in the Earth Energy Exascale System Model (E3SM) project

NCAR participation in E3SM activities as part of this funded collaborative project has been successful in leveraging the existing atmosphere model development experience from CESM scientists and applying it to initial v1 atmosphere model (EAM) development and analysis. NCAR partners collectively had many decades of experience in parameterization development, running and tuning coupled models and building the required software infrastructure to support ongoing model developments. Furthermore, collaboration between E3SM and CESM developers was of mutual benefit to both modeling endeavors. In the earlier periods of the project, participation in E3SM both complemented core critical path DOE activities and advanced individual parameterization development; including orographic drag, convection parameterization, convective gustiness and cloud and microphysical processes. Significant progress has been made implementing model capabilities for separating out the physics and dynamics grids, and providing the infrastructure for including orographic elevation class communication between the land and atmosphere models. Our activities working with the E3SM workflow and software engineering teams have established efficient protocols and infrastructure for the sharing of CESM and E3SM model codes of interest to both modeling groups, a large component of which is the mutual communication of common code bugs. As well as these specific project tasks all NCAR project members have been regular participants in atmosphere and coupled group telecons, as well as PI meetings. We have been fully engaged with and contributed to decisions regarding v1 atmosphere model developments, coupled model simulations, model tunings, and software engineering infrastructure. NCAR’s contribution to more recent E3SM development activities has centered on analysis of v1 release and pre-release simulations in order to address outstanding systematic biases and communicate climate improvements. Of particularly note is the work in understanding clouds and cloud feedbacks, shortcomings in ENSO and sub-seasonal variability; in particular the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Contributions have been made to a number of papers that are currently published or in preparation detailing model performance in CMIP6-protocal experiments. They outline the simulations of mean climate, clouds and convection processes, convective gustiness, atmospheric blocking coupled climates. The contributions of NCAR’s funded activities to the E3SM atmosphere in the initial years of the project have had a positive impact on many aspects of the model simulations described in these papers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analytical Model Methodology Development and Demonstration of Approach on Used Fuel Performance Characterization for Condition of Normal Transportation

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rules require that used nuclear fuel (UNF) rods maintain their integrity during handling, transportation, and storage to ensure maintenance of the fuel retaining boundary, safety against criticality, and long term fuel retrievability for processing and disposal. Consequently, understanding the mechanical performance of UNF rods under cumulative loading stemming from handling, normal conditions of transport (NCT), and normal conditions of storage (NCS) is necessary as their performance under these conditions establishes part of their safety basis. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a multi-laboratory team consisting of subject matter experts at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop a methodology to examine the structural performance and potential for failure of UNF under NCT and to perform a demonstration of this methodology for a typical UNF transportation campaign. This team prepared a Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) Plan that describes a methodology, including development and use of analytical models, to evaluate loading and associated mechanical responses of UNF rods and key structural components during NCT. The initial scope of this plan has now been fully executed. The demonstration of the methodology laid out in the RD&D plan is focused on structural performance evaluation of Westinghouse Electric 17×17 OFA pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with a discharge burnup range of 30 58 GWd/MTU (assembly average), loaded in a representative high-capacity (=32 fuel rod assemblies) transportation package and transported on a 3000 mile rail journey. In general, the modeling and simulation approach consists of three levels; the cask level, the fuel assembly level, and the fuel rod level. This modeling approach utilized finite element analysis sub-modeling techniques to accurately model the complete spent nuclear fuel transport system on the railcar (cask restraint structure, cask, basket, assembly, and fuel rods). The sub-modeling approach allows for more detailed finite element models of individual system components, faster analysis run times for the individual sub-models, and flexibility when updating or modifying the sub-models to incorporate better excitation data, initial material properties, or other pertinent information. The final results of the initial demonstration are that cladding strains were not large enough to cause structural failure, but cyclic strains roughly projected for the entire route were significant in some cases. The number of cycles that the model hits certain strain "bins" are counted. These are extrapolated for a 3000 mile trip and the damage ratio is calculated which is the number of cycles the fuel rods hit certain strain bins over the 3000 mile journey divided by the number of cycles to failure. Under the final model and set of inputs, the total damage from summation of the worst shock and vibration cases is ~18% of the expected fatigue limit. Therefore the fuel rods are not expected to fail during NCT given the assumptions listed. Additionally, a number of sensitivity studies were performed. It was found that the areas of highest sensitivity were the cladding elastic modulus, the spacer grid stiffness, the spacer grid location, and gaps between the assembly and the cask; these findings can be used to guide future work.

Used Nuclear Fuel, Storage, Transportation, Normal↗