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NASA NTRS2004

Multi-Epoch XMM Observations of NGC4258

The goal of this project was detection of variability in the X-ray absorption column of the AGN in NGC4258 through monitoring with the XMM satellite. We have accomplished this goal and submitted the results to ApJ for publication in a paper entitled, "X-ray Luminosity and Absorption Column Fluctuations in the H2O Maser Galaxy NGC4258 from Weeks to Years," by Fruscione, A., Greenhill, L.J., Filippedco, A.V., Moran, J.M., Hermstein, J.R., and Galle, E. We have received a favorable referee report and expect the article will appear in 2005. To complete the project, we reduced our four epochs of XMM data for NGC4258, one archival XMM observation, and all existing Chandra datasets for NGC4258 (with the latest calibration tables and a grid of corrections for pileup). Self-consistent reduction of all these data permitted detailed comparison that could not have been accomplished simply by taking published model fits that appear in the literature. To accumulate a broader monitoring record, we combined the Chandra and XMM results with those published for SAX and ASCA. We modeled the Chandra and XMM data self-consistently with partially absorbed, hard power-law, soft thermal plasmas, and soft power-law components. Over nine years, the photo-electric absorbing column exhibited a 40% drop between two ASCA epochs separated by 3 years and a 60% rise between two XMM epochs separated by just 5 months. In contract, uncorrelated factor of of 2-3 changes were seen in absorbed flux on te timescale of years, which suggests intrinsic variability of the central engine. The warped disk that is a known source of H2O maser emission in 4258 is believed to cross the line of sight to the central engine. We have proposed that the variations in absorbing column arise from inhomogeneities in the rotating disk, as they sweep across the line of sight. We estimate from the XMM data that the inhomogeneities are about 1E+15 cm in size at radii greater than 0.27 pc. This is consistent with the estimated radius of the disk crossing estimated entirely independently, and it solidifies evidence that the warped accretion disk is the absorber in this (and possible other) AGN.

Greenhill, Lincoln J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Non-Gaussian Analysis of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure on Aircraft Skin Panels

The purpose of the study is to investigate the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the outer sidewall of a supersonic transport aircraft and to approximate these PDFs by analytical models. Experimental flight results show that the fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for standard smooth surface conditions. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations in front of forward-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. There is a certain spatial pattern of the skewness and kurtosis behavior depending on the distance upstream from the step. All characteristics related to non-Gaussian behavior are highly dependent upon the distance from the step and the step height, less dependent on aircraft speed, and not dependent on the fuselage location. A Hermite polynomial transform model and a piecewise-Gaussian model fit the flight data well both for the smooth and stepped conditions. The piecewise-Gaussian approximation can be additionally regarded for convenience in usage after the model is constructed.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accounting for the Influence of Decorrelation in Microphone Phased Array Deconvolution Methods

Microphone phased arrays are a common tool for use in aeroacoustic wind tunnel testing. The analysis of acquired array data is known to suffer from decorrelation effects, where the coherence of an acoustic wave measured by a pair of microphones is degraded as the wave passes through a turbulent free shear layer or boundary layer. This paper describes, in detail, how to mitigate the influence of decorrelation effects when processing array data with deconvolution methods. This is done using the DAMAS algorithm as an example, applied to recent airframe noise test data acquired in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. Two ways of handling the turbulent propagation modeling, both assuming plane wave propagation, are described. Results show that while turbulence model fit parameters may differ, both methods output extremely similar deconvolution results. Further improvements likely require more accurate mean shear layer data prior to developing more involved turbulence models.

microphone array↗

DOE OSTI2015

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SUPERNOVA LEGACY SURVEY SAMPLE WITH ΛCDM AND THE R{sub h}=ct UNIVERSE

The use of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) has thus far produced the most reliable measurement of the expansion history of the universe, suggesting that ΛCDM offers the best explanation for the redshift–luminosity distribution observed in these events. However, analysis of other kinds of sources, such as cosmic chronometers, gamma-ray bursts, and high-z quasars, conflicts with this conclusion, indicating instead that the constant expansion rate implied by the R{sub h} = ct universe is a better fit to the data. The central difficulty with the use of SNe Ia as standard candles is that one must optimize three or four nuisance parameters characterizing supernova (SN) luminosities simultaneously with the parameters of an expansion model. Hence, in comparing competing models, one must reduce the data independently for each. We carry out such a comparison of ΛCDM and the R{sub h} = ct universe using the SN Legacy Survey sample of 252 SN events, and show that each model fits its individually reduced data very well. However, since R{sub h} = ct has only one free parameter (the Hubble constant), it follows from a standard model selection technique that it is to be preferred over ΛCDM, the minimalist version of which has three (the Hubble constant, the scaled matter density, and either the spatial curvature constant or the dark energy equation-of-state parameter). We estimate using the Bayes Information Criterion that in a pairwise comparison, the likelihood of R{sub h} = ct is ∼90%, compared with only ∼10% for a minimalist form of ΛCDM, in which dark energy is simply a cosmological constant. Compared to R{sub h} = ct, versions of the standard model with more elaborate parametrizations of dark energy are judged to be even less likely.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Modified Johnson–Cook Model for Flow Behavior of Alloy 800H at Intermediate Strain Rates and High Temperatures

A modified Johnson–Cook model for the flow behavior of alloy 800H at intermediate strain rates and high temperatures is presented. The modification is based on a study of the relation between strain hardening and both strain rate and softening parameters. The predicted stresses obtained using the modified model are compared to those obtained using the original Johnson–Cook model. The parameters constitute the two models are determined using the inverse method, Kalman filter. The results show that the modified model fits the experimental data very well for different combinations of strain rates and temperatures, with a mean value of R-squared regression of 0.90 for the modified model and 0.74 for the original Johnson–Cook model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Quantifying (dis)agreement between direct detection experiments in a halo-independent way

We propose an improved method to study recent and near-future dark matter direct detection experiments with small numbers of observed events. Our method determines in a quantitative and halo-independent way whether the experiments point towards a consistent dark matter signal and identifies the best-fit dark matter parameters. To achieve true halo independence, we apply a recently developed method based on finding the velocity distribution that best describes a given set of data. For a quantitative global analysis we construct a likelihood function suitable for small numbers of events, which allows us to determine the best-fit particle physics properties of dark matter considering all experiments simultaneously. Based on this likelihood function we propose a new test statistic that quantifies how well the proposed model fits the data and how large the tension between different direct detection experiments is. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in order to determine the probability distribution function of this test statistic and to calculate the p-value for both the dark matter hypothesis and the background-only hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical estimates of the binary properties of rotational variables

ABSTRACT We present a model to estimate the average primary masses, companion mass ranges, the inclination limit for recognizing a rotational variable, and the primary mass spreads for populations of binary stars. The model fits a population’s binary mass function distribution and allows for a probability that some mass functions are incorrectly estimated. Using tests with synthetic data, we assess the model’s sensitivity to each parameter, finding that we are most sensitive to the average primary mass and the minimum companion mass, with less sensitivity to the inclination limit and little to no sensitivity to the primary mass spread. We apply the model to five populations of binary spotted rotational variables identified in ASAS-SN, computing their binary mass functions using RV data from APOGEE. Their average primary mass estimates are consistent with our expectations based on their CMD locations ($\sim 0.75 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for lower main sequence primaries and $\sim 0.9$–$1.2 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for RS CVn and sub-subgiants). Their companion mass range estimates allow companion masses down to $M_2/M_1\simeq 0.1$, although the main sequence population may have a higher minimum mass fraction ($\sim 0.4$). We see weak evidence of an inclination limit $\gtrsim 50^{\circ }$ for the main sequence and sub-subgiant groups and no evidence of an inclination limit in the other groups. No groups show strong evidence for a preferred primary mass spread. We conclude by demonstrating that the approach will provide significantly better estimates of the primary mass and the minimum mass ratio and reasonable sensitivity to the inclination limit with 10 times as many systems.

Phillips, Anya (ORCID:000900051914974X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics-based halo model for large scale structure

Accurate modeling of the one-to-two halo transition has long been difficult to achieve. Here, we demonstrate that physically motivated halo definitions that respect the bimodal phase-space distribution of dark matter particles near halos resolves this difficulty. Specifically, the two phase-space components are overlapping and correspond to (1) particles orbiting the halo and (2) particles infalling into the halo for the first time. Motivated by this decomposition, García et al. [Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 521, 2464 (2023)] advocated for defining halos as the collection of particles orbiting their self-generated potential. This definition identifies the traditional one-halo term of the halo-mass correlation function with the distribution of orbiting particles around a halo, while the two-halo term governs the distribution of infalling particles. We use dark matter simulations to demonstrate that the distribution of orbiting particles is finite and can be characterized by a single physical scale 𝑟 h , which we refer to as the halo radius. The two-halo term is described using a simple yet accurate empirical model based on the Zel’dovich correlation function. We further demonstrate that the halo radius imprints itself on the distribution of infalling particles at small scales. Our final model for the halo-mass correlation function is accurate at the ≈ 2% level for 𝑟∈ [0.1, 50] ℎ −1 Mpc. The Fourier transform of our best-fit model describes the halo-mass power spectrum with comparable accuracy for 𝑘 ∈ [0.06, 6.0] ℎ Mpc −1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constraining the H i–Halo Mass Relation from Galaxy Clustering

We study the dependence of galaxy clustering on H i mass using ∼16,000 galaxies with redshift in the range of 0.0025 10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙}, drawn from the 70% complete sample of the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA survey. We construct subsamples of galaxies with M{sub HI} above different thresholds and make volume-limited clustering measurements in terms of three statistics: the projected two-point correlation function, the projected cross-correlation function with respect to a reference sample, and the redshift-space monopole moment. In contrast to previous studies, which found no/weak H i mass dependence, we find both the clustering amplitudes on scales above a few megaparsecs and the bias factors to increase significantly with increasing H i mass for M{sub HI}>10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. For H i mass thresholds below ∼10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}, the inferred galaxy bias factors are systematically lower than the minimum halo bias from mass-selected halo samples. We extend the simple halo model, in which the galaxy content is only determined by halo mass, by including the halo formation time as an additional parameter. A model that puts H i-rich galaxies into halos that formed late can reproduce the clustering measurements reasonably well. We present the implications of our best-fitting model on the correlation of H i mass with halo mass and formation time, as well as the halo occupation distributions and H i mass functions for central and satellite galaxies. These results are compared with the predictions from semianalytic galaxy formation models and hydrodynamic galaxy formation simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Early Blue Excess from the Type Ia Supernova 2017cbv and Implications for Its Progenitor

We present very early, high-cadence photometric observations of the nearby Type Ia SN 2017cbv. The light curve is unique in that it has a blue bump during the first five days of observations in the U , B , and g bands, which is clearly resolved given our photometric cadence of 5.7 hr during that time span. We model the light curve as the combination of early shocking of the supernova ejecta against a nondegenerate companion star plus a standard SN Ia component. Our best-fit model suggests the presence of a subgiant star 56 R {sub ☉} from the exploding white dwarf, although this number is highly model-dependent. While this model matches the optical light curve well, it overpredicts the observed flux in the ultraviolet bands. This may indicate that the shock is not a blackbody, perhaps because of line blanketing in the UV. Alternatively, it could point to another physical explanation for the optical blue bump, such as interaction with circumstellar material or an unusual nickel distribution. Early optical spectra of SN 2017cbv show strong carbon (C ii λ 6580) absorption up through day −13 with respect to maximum light, suggesting that the progenitor system contains a significant amount of unburned material. These early results on SN 2017cbv illustrate the power of early discovery and intense follow-up of nearby supernovae to resolve standing questions about the progenitor systems and explosion mechanisms of SNe Ia.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Carbon exchange in an Amazon forest: from hours to years

Abstract. In Amazon forests, the relative contributions of climate, phenology, and disturbance to net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) are not well understood. To partition influences across various timescales, we use a statistical model to represent eddy-covariance-derived NEE in an evergreen eastern Amazon forest as a constant response to changing meteorology and phenology throughout a decade. Our best fit model represented hourly NEE variations as changes due to sunlight, while seasonal variations arose from phenology influencing photosynthesis and from rainfall influencing ecosystem respiration, where phenology was asynchronous with dry-season onset. We compared annual model residuals with biometric forest surveys to estimate impacts of drought disturbance. We found that our simple model represented hourly and monthly variations in NEE well ( R 2 = 0.81 and 0.59, respectively). Modeled phenology explained 1 % of hourly and 26 % of monthly variations in observed NEE, whereas the remaining modeled variability was due to changes in meteorology. We did not find evidence to support the common assumption that the forest phenology was seasonally light- or water-triggered. Our model simulated annual NEE well, with the exception of 2002, the first year of our data record, which contained 1.2 MgC ha −1 of residual net emissions, because photosynthesis was anomalously low. Because a severe drought occurred in 1998, we hypothesized that this drought caused a persistent, multi-year depression of photosynthesis. Our results suggest drought can have lasting impacts on photosynthesis, possibly via partial damage to still-living trees.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1978

The center-to-limb

Center-to-limb measurements of the Ca I 6573 intercombination line and the Ca II 7324 forbidden line are compared with synthetic profiles based on a simple representation of the non-LTE Ca-Ca(+) ionization equilibrium. The effects of photoionizations from low lying excited states of neutral calcium are found to reduce the sensitivity of the 6573 center-to-limb behavior as a thermal structure diagnostic. The synthetic center-to-limb behavior is also sensitive to uncertainties in the nonthermal broadening. Nevertheless, the measured center-to-limb behavior of 6573 favors a 'cool' photospheric model over hotter models based on the Ca II K wings. The non-LTE calcium abundance obtained from the disk center equivalent widths of 6573 and 7324 using the best fit model is A(Ca) = 2.1 plus or minus 0.2 x 10 to the -6th (by number relative to hydrogen).

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

Zonal harmonic model of Saturn's magnetic field from Voyager 1 and 2 observations

An analysis of the magnetic field of Saturn is presented which takes into account both the Voyager 1 and 2 vector magnetic field observations. The analysis is based on the traditional spherical harmonic expansion of a scale potential to derive the magnetic field within 8 Saturn radii. A third-order zonal harmonic model fitted to Voyager 1 and 2 observations is found to be capable of predicting the magnetic field characteristics at one encounter based on those observed at another, unlike models including dipole and quadrupole terms only. The third-order model is noted to lead to significantly enhanced polar surface field intensities with respect to dipole models, and probably represents the axisymmetric part of a complex dynamo field.

Connerney, J. E. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

'Alfven wing' models of the induced electrical current system at Io - A probe of the ionosphere of Io

A novel class of models of the Alfven wing interaction between the Io plasma torus and Io's ionosphere has been developed and used to compute the magnetic field fluctuations at the position of the Voyager 1 flyby. These computations of the magnetic field signature are compared with the magnetic field measurements made during the flyby, and the differences between the model and observations are used as a probe of the structure of Io's ionosphere. The results of this model fitting indicate that a significant atmospheric neutral column density is required over a major part of the trailing hemisphere. This can be consistent with the cold-trap model for Io's neutral atmoshpere only if the major plumes near the center of the trailing hemisphere provide significant volumetric coverage. The Io plasma torus charged-mass density required for a proper match to the data is larger than earlier estimates based on the width of the Alfven wing signature.

Herbert, F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

XRISM Spectroscopy of the Fe Kα Emission Line in the Seyfert Active Galactic Nucleus NGC 4151 Reveals the Disk, Broad-line Region, and Torus

Abstract We present an analysis of the first two XRISM/Resolve spectra of the well-known Seyfert-1.5 active galactic nucleus (AGN) in NGC 4151, obtained in 2023 December. Our work focuses on the nature of the narrow Fe K α emission line at 6.4 keV, the strongest and most common X-ray line observed in AGN. The total line is found to consist of three components. Even the narrowest component of the line is resolved with evident Fe K α ,1 (6.404 keV) and K α ,2 (6.391 keV) contributions in a 2:1 flux ratio, fully consistent with neutral gas with negligible bulk velocity. Subject to the limitations of our models, the narrowest and intermediate-width components are consistent with emission from optically thin gas, suggesting that they arise in a disk atmosphere and/or wind. Modeling the three line components in terms of Keplerian broadening, they are readily associated with (1) the inner wall of the “torus,” (2) the innermost optical “broad-line region” (or “X-ray BLR”), and (3) a region with a radius of r ≃ 100 GM / c 2 that may signal a warp in the accretion disk. Viable alternative explanations of the broadest component include a fast-wind component and/or scattering; however, we find evidence of variability in the narrow Fe K α line complex on timescales consistent with small radii. The best-fit models are statistically superior to simple Voigt functions, but when fit with Voigt profiles the time-averaged lines are consistent with a projected velocity broadening of FWHM = 1600 − 200 + 400 km s − 1 . Overall, the resolution and sensitivity of XRISM show that the narrow Fe K line in AGN is an effective probe of all key parts of the accretion flow, as it is currently understood. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of AGN accretion, future studies with XRISM, and X-ray-based black hole mass measurements.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Low energy neutron light output characterization of EJ301D and deuterated stilbene with a comparison of light output characterization methods

The neutron-induced light yield of a 2.54 cm diameter by 2.54 cm long right circular cylinder of EJ301D and a (5.08 cm)3 custom made cube of deuterated trans-stilbene-d12 (d-stilbene) were measured over incident neutron energies from 300 keV to 2.2 MeV and 200 keV to 2.4 MeV, respectively. The measurements were performed using a time-of-flight experiment with a Cf-252 source and an approximately 1.5 m flight path. We compare three light output spectrum full energy deposition edge estimation methods: (1) simulating the neutron energy spectrum edge and fitting it to the light output spectrum, (2) using the inflection point of the light output spectrum edge (derivative method, a.k.a. Kornilov’s method), and (3) using an empirical model fit to the edge of the light output spectrum. Both the derivative and equation fit methods do not account for physical processes such as multiple neutron scattering in the detectors. They instead rely on assumptions about the linear shape continuum shape of the light output spectrum and the direct correlation between the location of the spectrum’s inflection point and maximum energy deposition. These assumptions were found to introduce bias into those methods when tested against simulated spectra with known edge locations. When tested against measured spectra the derivative method was found to differ from the simulation fit by greater than 30% at low energies with large discontinuities for adjacent data points above 800 keV incident neutron energy. The empirical equation fitting method was found to also exhibit bias of a similar magnitude, but with significantly more continuous behavior, especially with the lower count data of the smaller volumed EJ301D scintillator. Experimental light output yield for this neutron energy range is reported using the simulated spectrum fitting method because it includes physics neglected by the other methods, and did not exhibit the bias observed in the other methods

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗