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DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of the Fluctuating Proton Shape in DIS and Hadronic Collisions

We determine the likelihood distribution for the model parameters describing the event-by-event fluctuating proton geometry at small $x$ by performing a Bayesian analysis within the Color Glass Condensate framework. The exclusive J/ψ production data from HERA is found to constrain the model parameters well, and we demonstrate that complementary constraints can be obtained from simulations of Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Producing ENDF/B-quality Evaluations of 239 Pu(n,f) and 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Neutron Multiplicities using the CGMF Model

This report documents evaluations of the neutron-induced 239 Pu and 235 U average prompt neutron multiplicities, $\overline{v}_p$, using the CGMF model developed at LANL. These evaluations are not updates of existing ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data, but were both re-done from "scratch". That is, all experimental data were extracted from EXFOR, re-normalized to the newest nuclear data representing monitor observables, and detailed uncertainties were estimated from information in EXFOR as well as from templates of expected measurement uncertainties. We also included experimental data that were not yet available for ENDF/B-VIII.0, for instance, the data of Marini et al. for 239 Pu(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ or the data of Khoklov et al. for 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$. Finally, we include the CGMF model; it computes $\overline{v}_p$ based on model parameters that at the same time calculate fission fragments as a function of mass, Y (A), the average total kinetic energy as a function of incident-neutron energy, $\langle TKE \rangle$(E inc ), etc. Such a detailed fission model that ties together many fission quantities has not been used to date for any $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation in ENDF/B. Here, we show that we can get evaluated 235 U(n,f) and 239 Pu $\overline{v}_p$ that not only correspond well to experimental $\overline{v}_p$, but that the associated evaluated model parameters also yield parameterizations of Y (A), $\langle TKE \rangle$(E inc ), etc., that correspond well to their respective experimental data. The new evaluated 239 Pu(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ was also combined into a 239 Pu test file with the newest nuclear data for the 239 Pu prompt-fission neutron spectrum and fission cross sections. This new 239 Pu file performed reasonably well in predicting PU-MET-FAST assemblies, reaction rates in Jezebel and Flattop and three LLNL pulsed spheres. Due to that, the new 239 Pu(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation presented here is being considered for ENDF/B-VIII.1. Hence, we can show here that CGMF is able to produce ENDF/B quality $\overline{v}_p$ nuclear data.

239Pu, 235U, Average Prompt-fission Neutron Multip↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inference of neutrino flavor evolution through data assimilation and neural differential equations

The evolution of neutrino flavor in dense environments such as core-collapse supernovae and binary compact object mergers constitutes an important and unsolved problem. Its solution has potential implications for the dynamics and heavy-element nucleosynthesis in these environments. In this paper, we build upon recent work to explore inference-based techniques for the estimation of model parameters and neutrino flavor evolution histories. Here, we combine data assimilation, ordinary differential equation solvers, and neural networks to craft an inference approach tailored for nonlinear dynamical systems. Using this architecture, and a simple two-neutrino-beam, two-flavor model, we compare the performances of nine different optimization algorithms and expand upon previous assessments of the efficacy of inference for tackling problems in flavor evolution. We find that employing this new architecture, together with evolutionary optimization algorithms, accurately captures flavor histories in the small-scale model and allows us to quickly explore both model parameters and initial flavor content. In future work we plan to extend these inference techniques to large numbers of neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lunar Transient Accelerations White Paper

Recently, the United States announced a plan to return astronauts to the moon by 2024 [8]. Lunar landing (and subsequent Mars landing) architecture was not considered when the current NASA standards and vehicle design requirements for crew injury risk were developed. Therefore a gap exists in protecting the crew in planetary landing scenarios. One of the interesting aspects of this design reference mission (DRM)is the consideration of having the crew stand during dynamic phases of flight. Although this approach was contemplated for the Apollo Lunar Module, current NASA standards do not address design solutions that allow the crew to stand. Currently, NASA uses several tools and associated limits to mitigate crew injury because of dynamic loads. Some of these tools are the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion (BDRC) model and Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) [10]; and these have several limitations for assessing spaceflight loading environments, as well as specific underlying assumptions that may not be applicable in planetary landing vehicles. The BDRC is a simple lumped mass parameter model developed by the U.S. military, and has been used primarily to evaluate injury risk associated with aircraft ejection systems. The model evaluates seat accelerations in each axis to determine injury risk. Because the model treats the human-seat-restraint system as a single system, it is contingent on a restraint system and seat with similar characteristics of the original test data underlying the model. In particular, the model requires a rigid seat with a minimum natural frequency of 15Hz, minimal seat pan padding, side supports, and multipoint harness. The BDRC model uses undamped natural frequency and damping coefficients based on these requirements and any deviations may render the model injury predictions void. In lunar landing, one expects that a minimal or even no seat with minimal restraints will be employed. In this case, the original model parameters are likely to not be applicable. For capsule-based spacecraft returning crew to Earth, the Hybrid III ATD in various sizes also is used to supplement the BDRC. This analytical tool was added to address limitations in the BDRC related to spacecraft landings while wearing a pressure garment and helmet. Although the Hybrid III ATD has additional measurement capability; head, neck,and lumbar spine responses were the only metrics included because of the limitations imposed by the model.Lunar landing acceleration limits must assume the crew is standing during landing, an orientation for which we have limited data.Although the Apollo missions did employ a standing orientation for the crew, much of the data is lost. Therefore data from othersources havebeen examined to inform lunar landing acceleration limits.

Jeffrey T Somers↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Process Modeling Design Parameters

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) conducts systems analysis studies that require a large number of inputs, from ambient conditions to parameters for Aspen Plus ® (Aspen) process blocks. The sheer number of assumptions required makes it impractical to document all of them in each issued report. The purpose of the Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) is to document the assumptions most commonly used in system analysis studies and the basis for those assumptions. In order to develop the systems analysis models presented in various NETL reports, significant vendor data have been obtained, and these data enhance the model outputs. Much of the vendor data obtained are considered proprietary and not suitable for public release or attribution to a specific vendor. As such, several sub-systems common in NETL reports and their process parameter data are not reported in this document to protect proprietary vendor information. The values and ranges of values presented in this report represent assumptions that have been made in previous studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of the VIIRS BRDF, Albedo and NBAR Products Suite and an Assessment of Continuity with the Long Term MODIS Record

Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model parameters, Albedo quantities, and Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR) products derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), on the Suomi-NPP (National Polar-orbiting Partnership) satellite are evaluated with spatially representative in situ tower albedometer measurements and through comparison with the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) long term record. White Sky Albedo (WSA), Black Sky Albedo (BSA), NBAR, and Quality Assurance (QA) results show that the VIIRS algorithm is performing well at the global scale and is able to provide global data products comparable with the heritage MODIS (with an absolute bias of 0.0069 for shortwave broadband WSA) despite the spectral, angular, and effective spatial resolution differences between the two sensors. Both VIIRS and MODIS albedo are shown to agree well with in situ albedo measurements at a number of spatially representative sites. This evaluation provides confidence that the high quality, daily VIIRS BRDF model parameters, Albedo, and NBAR products will be able to provide the long term continuity required by the modeling and monitoring communities.

VIIRS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Historic climate, cosmogenic 10Be, denudation-rate, and geospatial datasets from the Pikes Peak region, Colorado, USA

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of elevation-dependent denudation rates on Pikes Peak in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the study-area map, including sample locations, sample watershed boundaries, the Pikes Peak batholith, Pleistocene glacier extent, weather station locations, and elevation and hillshade rasters, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. These mapped layers provide the geographic framework for interpreting denudation patterns across the Pikes Peak region and for relating sample locations to watershed geometry, bedrock setting, glacial history, and nearby climate stations. The first group of tables reports climate and geospatial context for the study area. These files include station-based temperature and precipitation data used to characterize elevational gradients in mean annual climate and monthly climate seasonality, sample locations, denudation-rate and topographic metrics, fixed frost-cracking model parameters, frost-cracking intensity and precipitation-frequency metrics, and stream-power inversion results. Together, these data provide the basis for evaluating how denudation varies with elevation, climate, and landscape form across sampled catchments on Pikes Peak. The second group of tables reports cosmogenic nuclide and erosion-model results used in the denudation analysis. Included files contain accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample identifiers, measured 10Be:9Be ratios, analytical uncertainties, carrier mass, quartz mass, blank corrections, blank-group statistics, and calculated 10Be concentrations and uncertainties. Additional tables summarize stream-power-law inversion results for sampled catchments, including optimized model parameters, predicted erosion rates, residual metrics, channel-pixel counts, and convergence status, as well as regression equations and summary statistics used to evaluate relationships among elevation, climate, frost cracking, precipitation forcing, and denudation rate. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, and a readme text file.

10Be cosmogenic nuclides↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Dynamic remapping decisions in multi-phase parallel computations

The effectiveness of any given mapping of workload to processors in a parallel system is dependent on the stochastic behavior of the workload. Program behavior is often characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. During a phase, the behavior is fairly stable, but may become quite different during the next phase. Thus a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. We consider the problem of deciding whether to remap a paralled computation in the face of uncertainty in remapping's utility. Fundamentally, it is necessary to balance the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost of remapping. This paper treats this problem formally by constructing a probabilistic model of a computation with at most two phases. We use stochastic dynamic programming to show that the remapping decision policy which minimizes the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure: the optimal decision at any step is followed by comparing the probability of remapping gain against a threshold. This theoretical result stresses the importance of detecting a phase change, and assessing the possibility of gain from remapping. We also empirically study the sensitivity of optimal performance to imprecise decision threshold. Under a wide range of model parameter values, we find nearly optimal performance if remapping is chosen simply when the gain probability is high. These results strongly suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change; precise quantification of the decision model parameters is not necessary.

Nicol, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time reversal and CP invariance in Calabi-Yau compactifications

We revisit the question of time reversal and CP invariance in Calabi-Yau compactifications. We show that time reversal invariance is respected by quantum corrections to the prepotential. In particular, field independent θ angles whose presence is dictated by requiring integrality of relevant monodromy transformations can take precisely the quantized values compatible with time reversal invariance. Furthermore, monodromy symmetry enlarges the region on moduli space on which time reversal is not spontaneously broken. We define the action of the CP transformation for multi-parameter models and argue that on the slice of moduli space where it is defined, CP> is trivially a symmetry of the theory. For supersymmetric vacua that lie in this slice, we derive a condition on the third cohomology of the compactification manifold which determines whether CPpreserving fluxes exist that stabilize the moduli to such points. In the case of one-parameter models, the condition is always satisfied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2018

Polarization Decomposition and Temperature Bias Resolution for SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Retrieval Using Time Series Brightness Temperature Observations

In passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, the tau-omega (τ-ω) model has often been used to provide soil moisture estimates at a spatial scale representative of the satellite footprint dimensions. For modeling simplicity, model parameters such as the single scattering albedo (ω) and vegetation opacity (τ) that go into the geophysical inversion process are often assumed to be independent of polarizations. Although this absence of polarization dependence can often be justified in special cases as in low-frequency remote sensing or under dense vegetation conditions, it is not a robust assumption in general. Additional model parameterization errors arising from this assumption are possible, leading to degradation in soil moisture estimation accuracy. In this paper, we propose a time series approach to try to resolve the polarization dependence of several τ-ω model parameters as well as the temperature bias arising from the ancillary temperature data. The Version 4 of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 1B brightness temperature time series observations were used to illustrate the mechanics of this approach, with an emphasis on a comparison between resulting satellite soil moisture retrievals and in situ data collected at several core validation sites. It was found that this time series approach resulted in significant reduction of the dry bias exhibited in the current SMAP passive soil moisture data products, while retaining the same performance in other metrics of the current baseline passive soil moisture retrieval algorithm.

time series↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology with moments of weak lensing mass maps

We present a cosmological analysis using the second and third moments of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of data (Y3) data of the Dark Energy Survey. The survey spans an effective area of 4139 square degrees and uses the images of over 100 million galaxies to reconstruct the convergence field. The second moment of the convergence as a function of smoothing scale contains information similar to standard shear 2-point statistics. The third moment, or the skewness, contains additional non-Gaussian information. The data is analyzed in the context of the Λ CDM model, varying five cosmological parameters and 19 nuisance parameters modeling astrophysical and measurement systematics. Our modeling of the observables is completely analytical, and has been tested with simulations in our previous methodology study. We obtain a 1.7% measurement of the amplitude of fluctuations parameter S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.784 ± 0.013 . The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales, and between second and third moments. In particular, the measured third moment is consistent with the expectation of gravitational clustering under the Λ CDM model. The addition of the third moment improves the constraints on S 8 and Ω m by ∼ 15 % and ∼ 25 % compared to an analysis that only uses second moments. We compare our results with Planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding a 2.2 – 2.8 σ tension in the full parameter space, depending on the combination of moments considered. The third moment, independently, is in 2.8 σ tension with Planck, and thus provides a cross-check on the analyses of 2-point correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗

NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Spacecraft Fuel Slosh at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

As a NASA-sponsored GSRP Fellow, I worked with other researchers and analysts at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and NASA's ELV Division to investigate the effect of spacecraft fuel slosh. NASA's research into the effects of fuel slosh includes modeling the response in full-sized tanks using equipment such as the Spinning Slosh Test Rig (SSTR), located at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI). NASA and SwRI engineers analyze data taken from SSTR runs and hand-derive equations of motion to identify model parameters and characterize the sloshing motion. With guidance from my faculty advisor, Dr. Sathya Gangadharan, and NASA flight controls analysts James Sudermann and Charles Walker, I set out to automate this parameter identification process by building a simple physical experimental setup to model free surface slosh in a spherical tank with a simple pendulum analog. This setup was then modeled using Simulink and SimMechanics. The Simulink Parameter Estimation Tool was then used to identify the model parameters.

Schlee, Keith L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for Generating Covariance Data of Thermal Neutron Scattering Cross Sections

This paper details and implements a framework for evaluating thermal neutron scattering cross sections that provide S(α,β) data and covariance data for hydrogen in light water. This methodology involves perturbing model parameters of molecular dynamics potentials and fitting the simulation results to experimental data. The framework is general and can be applied to any material or simulation method. The fit is made using the Unified Monte Carlo method to experimentally measure double-differential scattering cross sections of light water at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Mean values and covariance data were generated for model parameters, phonon density of states, double-differential cross sections, and total scattering cross sections. These posterior parameter values were very similar to their prior values with a maximum relative error of 0.54%. This falls within in the Unified Monte Carlo–calculated uncertainties on the order of 2.7%. Additionally, posterior double-differential cross sections agree favorably with ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections. The new thermal scattering law was tested by comparing it against benchmarks from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, which showed a slight improvement over the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library. Additionally, the covariance matrix of the phonon density of states was validated to confirm that the spread of k eff from the density of states used to generate the covariance matrix was similar to the spread of k eff from the density of states of the sampled covariance matrix.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗