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At least 469 records · Page 26

Machine Learning Assisted Safety Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Reactors

With the advances in computational power and numerical methods, analysts can now rely on first-principle simulations to predict ultra-fine details in a variety of applications. Advances in machine learning (ML) have produced algorithms that can now learn high-level abstractions via hierarchical models. This project aims to leverage advances in ML techniques and the available high-resolution simulation data to develop a novel modeling and simulation (M\&S) methodology for reactor safety analysis. While application-agnostic ML techniques are available, complex physics constraints need to be incorporated into ML techniques to build ML-based closures for computationally efficient predictive simulations. This project intends to develop a physics-guided data-driven multi-scale methodology for M\&S of advanced reactors. The project focuses on thermal fluid (T/F) phenomena, which play major roles in advanced reactor safety. Specifically, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). The model has a coarse-mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model to ensure accuracy. Three different neural networks are developed and tested for loss-of-flow transients in the hot pool of SFR, i.e. the densely connected convolutional neural network (DCNN), long-short-term-memory network based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD-LSTM), and the DCNN informed by LSTM (DCNN-LSTM). The performances of these three neural networks are evaluated based on baseline models. The DCNN-LSTM model has been chosen for further hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, based on a simplified two-dimensional case, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the developed ML-based closure are investigated with three methods, i.e. Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and Bayesian neural network. The developed ML-based turbulent viscosity closure relation based on deep ensemble is then integrated into the system analysis module SAM and serves as a term in the conservation equations. Such a SAM-ML based procedure guarantees that the obtained results are consistent with the physical constraints of the thermal-fluid system. The SAM-ML simulation on the same loss-of-flow transient showed comparable accuracy with the CFD simulation but with a much coarser mesh setup. Last but not least, the ML-based closure improvement with the support of higher-fidelity data from large eddy simulation (LES) is discussed. As a first step towards this direction, a baseline LES simulation is performed to obtain comparable data with RANS results. Based on the early results, future investigation on further improving the ML-based closure is discussed. We believe the developed approach that combines scientific machine learning with nuclear system analysis code can benefit the advanced reactor community as more accurate safety analyses will better characterize reactor safety margins and reduce licensing efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Neutron spectroscopy of plutonium using a handheld detection system

The ability to distinguish multiple forms of plutonium from one another, such as oxide and metal, is paramount in areas of nuclear nonproliferation and international safeguards. In its metal form, plutonium can be readily used in a nuclear weapon, while oxide forms are associated with nuclear reactor fuel. Oxide-based plutonium forms emit neutrons with an energy spectrum that is significantly different from the fission neutrons that are emitted from plutonium metal. Organic scintillation detectors output pulses that are proportional to the neutron energy deposited, and therefore present a means of distinguishing these plutonium forms based on their energy spectra. In this work, metal and oxide forms of plutonium were measured using a handheld detection system based on an organic glass scintillator. Monte Carlo modeling of these experiments was performed to provide insight into the origin of the features in the observed light output spectra. Through analysis of multiple regions of these spectra, in a matter of minutes we were able to unambiguously discriminate oxide and metal plutonium forms from one another and from a plutonium-beryllium neutron source, which was considered for comparison because these sources are commonly used in industrial applications. The ability to discriminate weapons-usable material from nuclear reactor fuel has applications in nuclear treaty verification and safeguards.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Accelerated kinetic Monte Carlo: A case study; vacancy and dumbbell interstitial diffusion traps in concentrated solid solution alloys

Vacancy and self-interstitial atomic diffusion coefficients in concentrated solid solution alloys can have a non-monotonic concentration dependence. Here, the kinetics of monovacancies and $\langle$100$\rangle$ dumbbell interstitials in Ni–Fe alloys are assessed using lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC). The non-monotonicity is associated with superbasins, which impels using accelerated kMC methods. Detailed implementation prescriptions for first passage time analysis kMC (FPTA-kMC), mean rate method kMC (MRM-kMC), and accelerated superbasin kMC (AS-kMC) are given. The accelerated methods are benchmarked in the context of diffusion coefficient calculations. The benchmarks indicate that MRM-kMC underestimates diffusion coefficients, while AS-kMC overestimates them. In this application, MRM-kMC and AS-kMC are computationally more efficient than the more accurate FPTA-kMC. Our calculations indicate that composition dependence of migration energies is at the origin of the vacancy’s non-monotonic behavior. In contrast, the difference between formation energies of Ni–Ni, Ni–Fe, and Fe–Fe dumbbell interstitials is at the origin of their non-monotonic diffusion behavior. Additionally, the migration barrier crossover composition—based on the situation where Ni or Fe atom jumps have lower energy barrier than the other one—is introduced. KMC simulations indicate that the interplay between composition dependent crossover of migration energy and geometrical site percolation explains the non-monotonic concentration-dependence of atomic diffusion coefficients.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of the MCNP-ORIGEN activation automation tool

This paper introduces the MCNP-ORIGEN activation automation tool for streamlining the calculation of experiment source terms. This tool couples the Monte-Carlo radiation-transport solver, MCNP to the depletion tool, ORIGEN-S. To showcase its current capabilities, this paper presents an activation analysis exercise, which is conducted with Serpent, and the results are com- pared. The experiment consists in a 90%-enriched uranium sphere surrounded by light water. A non-fissile cylinder is placed in the water, representing an irradiation experiment. We conducted simulations for 2 different cylinder materials: iron and cobalt at two different temperatures: 300 K and 900 K. The exercise consists of an irradiation of 50 days at a constant power of 5 MW, followed by a decay of 50 days. These studies highlight the discrepancies between how the different tools handle nuclear data. Finally, the results underscore multiple areas of possible improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

PUFFIn – A user friendly fast interface for calculating and visualizing the dose distribution in materials

This article describes a new graphical user interface that uses the PENELOPE Monte Carlo code to calculate dose distributions in materials. It is named PUFFIn, for the Penelope User-Friendly Fast Interface and was developed as an educational and scoping analysis tool for non-experts in radiation modeling. PUFFIn enables the user to visualize and compare the dose distributions in objects (e.g., sterilized healthcare products) irradiated with cobalt-60 gamma-rays, electron beam (E-beam) or X-rays. From such comparisons, the user can determine the most efficient product and/or packaging designs for any given radiation field – whether for conceptual or existing products and packaging. PUFFIn is distributed in a complete, self-contained package of software, including the PENELOPE radiation transport code, a standard graphics package, and a set of simple exercises. The package is available to any user at no cost and requires a minimal amount of training compared to other similar software. PUFFIn's capabilities are described, as well as validation measurements performed at Texas A&M University E-beam facility and the Aerial E-beam Facility in France.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating the Trajectory and Biomass Growth of Free-Floating Macroalgal Cultivation Platforms along the U.S. West Coast

Trajectory tracking and macroalgal growth models were coupled to support a novel macroalgae-harvesting concept known as the Nautical Off-shore Macroalgal Autonomous Device (NOMAD). The NOMAD consists of 5 km long carbon-fiber longlines that are seeded and free float southward along the U.S. West Coast for approximately 3 months before harvesting off the California coast, taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions. The trajectory and macroalgal growth models were applied to answer planning questions pertinent to the techno-economic analysis such as identifying the preferred release location, approximate pathway, timing until harvest, and estimated growth. Trajectories were determined with the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model, using 11 years of current and wind data, determining probabilities by running nearly 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations varying the start time and location. An accompanying macroalgal growth model was used to estimate the growth of macroalgae based on the trajectory tracks and environmental forcing products, including light, temperature and nutrients. Model results show that NOMAD lines transit south in the months of April to September due to seasonal currents, taking approximately 3 months to reach Southern California. During transit, NOMAD lines are dispersed but typically avoid beaching or passing through marine sanctuaries. NOMAD lines can yield up to 30 kg wet weight per meter of cultivation line.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Analysis of Three Body Decays in Quasi-Real Photoproduction

This thesis presents preliminary measurements of the moments of angular distribution for the K?K+ mesonic final state using a quasi-real, linearly polarised photon. Two of the main points of focus for this analysis were the development of the formalism for photoproduced vector-pseudoscalar decay and the tools by which the analysis was carried out. The formalism described how the moments of angular distribution could be extracted from the angular decay variables, and how they related to resonance decays in terms of partial waves. In extracting the moments, it was found that adapted Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods proved to be more effective in terms of extracting results from the data compared to the sole use of gradient descent based fitting algorithms. These measurements are complementary to other decay channels and production mechanisms, with the global aim of probing the existence of exotic mesons. Data from this analysis was taken by the CLAS collaboration at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) by scattering from a liquid hydrogen target using a 10.6 GeV electron. This work was done within the MesonEx program at CLAS12 that aims to map the spectrum of mesons, and in doing so, gain a greater understanding of Quantum ChromoDynamics (QCD) and the strong force.

Wishart, Robert↗

Evaluation of sustainable waste management: An analysis of techno-economic and life cycle assessments of municipal solid waste sorting and decontamination

This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) sorting and decontamination technologies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. Using Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), the research assesses cost-effectiveness and environmental impacts, with a focus on cost variability analyzed through Monte Carlo simulations. Findings indicate significant cost differences based on population density: rural areas incur high costs up to $$764/ton due to low waste volumes and limited infrastructure, whereas suburban and urban areas have more feasible costs ranging from $36.3 to $142.5/ton. Environmental impacts also vary, with greenhouse gas emissions at 171 kg CO 2 eq/ton for copy paper and 118.6 kg CO 2 eq/ton for plastics. PM2.5 levels are 9.1 g/ton for copy paper and 6.3 g/ton for plastics, with sorting lines being the main contributors. Monte Carlo simulations reveal a 50% probability of costs being below $$102.26/ton for copy paper and $115.8/ton for plastics in suburban settings. Further, the study underscores the importance of customized waste management strategies to improve economic viability and sustainability based on local conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

LHC hadronic jet generation using convolutional variational autoencoders with normalizing flows

Abstract In high energy physics, one of the most important processes for collider data analysis is the comparison of collected and simulated data. Nowadays the state-of-the-art for data generation is in the form of Monte Carlo (MC) generators. However, because of the upcoming high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), there will not be enough computational power or time to match the amount of needed simulated data using MC methods. An alternative approach under study is the usage of machine learning generative methods to fulfill that task. Since the most common final-state objects of high-energy proton collisions are hadronic jets, which are collections of particles collimated in a given region of space, this work aims to develop a convolutional variational autoencoder (ConVAE) for the generation of particle-based LHC hadronic jets. Given the ConVAE’s limitations, a normalizing flow (NF) network is coupled to it in a two-step training process, which shows improvements on the results for the generated jets. The ConVAE+NF network is capable of generating a jet in 18.30 ± 0.04 μ s , making it one of the fastest methods for this task up to now.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification and reconstruction of low-energy electrons in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector

Measurements of electrons from 𝜈𝑒 interactions are crucial for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) neutrino oscillation program, as well as searches for physics beyond the standard model, supernova neutrino detection, and solar neutrino measurements. This article describes the selection and reconstruction of low-energy (Michel) electrons in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector. ProtoDUNE-SP is one of the prototypes for the DUNE far detector, built and operated at CERN as a charged particle test beam experiment. A sample of low-energy electrons produced by the decay of cosmic muons is selected with a purity of 95%. This sample is used to calibrate the low-energy electron energy scale with two techniques. An electron energy calibration based on a cosmic ray muon sample uses calibration constants derived from measured and simulated cosmic ray muon events. Another calibration technique makes use of the theoretically well-understood Michel electron energy spectrum to convert reconstructed charge to electron energy. In addition, the effects of detector response to low-energy electron energy scale and its resolution including readout electronics threshold effects are quantified. Finally, the relation between the theoretical and reconstructed low-energy electron energy spectra is derived, and the energy resolution is characterized. The low-energy electron selection presented here accounts for about 75% of the total electron deposited energy. After the addition of lost energy using a Monte Carlo simulation, the energy resolution improves from about 40% to 25% at 50 MeV. These results are used to validate the expected capabilities of the DUNE far detector to reconstruct low-energy electrons.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainty Visualization of Critical Points of 2D Scalar Fields for Parametric and Nonparametric Probabilistic Models

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. Here, in this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders

The SCALE code package offers multiple nuclear data libraries and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) methods supporting and derived from Monte Carlo (MC) transport. The CSAS and TSUNAMI-3D sequences use KENO MC, utilizing either continuous-energy (CE) cross sections or multigroup (MG) cross section libraries. TSUNAMI-3D has two CE calculational methods: the iterated fission probability (IFP) method, and the Contribution-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. Previous work has shown poor agreement between CLUTCH and confirmatory direct perturbation calculations in specific applications (e.g., fissionable and polyethylene reflectors). The HEU-MET-FAST-084 (HMF-084) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project evaluation consists of 27 cylindrical highly enriched uranium metal cores with 14 unique reflector materials of 0.5 and 1 in. thicknesses. Included in this list of reflector materials are natural uranium and polyethylene. This work utilized SCALE 6.2.4 models of the HMF-084 evaluation, with additional non-physical configurations to test both the MG bias and CLUTCH functionality across a variety of reflector material thicknesses. The evaluation’s use of concentric cylinders allowed for examination of several MG self-shielding methods: infinite homogenous, cylindrical, and spherical. The results indicate that the use of polyethylene reflectors with CLUTCH is not fundamentally impossible but sensitive to geometry. The poor performance of CLUTCH with fissionable reflectors was reaffirmed. The 2 in. and greater polyethylene-reflected calculations demonstrate the necessity of using the 302-group library for fast systems. The nickel MG bias was substantial, as discussed in a companion paper, as were cobalt and iron.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mach Conference, 2022.

There has been considerable interest in chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) manufactured silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composite tubes due to their superior mechanical properties. The SiC/SiC tubes are known to remain stable even after prolonged exposure to radiation. However, there are many variables in the manufacturing of SiC/SiC composite tubes such as elastic constants of constituent SiC fiber and SiC matrix, braiding angle, porosity, and others whose values vary over a range. The intention is to identify the distribution of elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes which would help model the performance of the novel cladding material. To do so, a sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine the dominant variables that influence the elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes. A chosen number of combinations of dominant variables will be sampled through the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The elastic constants of composite tube namely Young's moduli in the circumferential and longitudinal direction, Poisson's ratio, and shear modulus will be calculated at sampled points through finite element (FE) analysis. A polynomial response surface (PRS) will be built for each of the elastic constants to be used as a surrogate to FE analysis. Once the predictive accuracy of PRS is verified at the validation set of data points, the PRS will be invoked 105 times in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The uncertainty can be quantified by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV) based on MCS-generated data which will be presented at the conference.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SCALE Calculations Replicating ARH-600 Data

This report documents Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) calculations replicating data from the ARH-600 criticality handbook. These calculations complement those reproduced with MCNP in PRC-NS-00009. Calculations were performed with SCALE version 6.1, using the v7-238 cross section library. The original ARH-600 data were calculated by the Atlantic Richfield Hanford (ARH) Company starting in the 1960s, and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculations were performed by the Hanford Plateau Remediation Company in 2010. This report is not intended to replace final analysis of fissile systems by qualified criticality personnel.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Identification of Distribution of Elastic Constants of SiC/SiC Braided Tubes

There has been considerable interest in chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) manufactured silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiCf/SiCm) composite tubes due to their superior mechanical properties. There are many parameters in the manufacturing of SiCf/SiCm composite tubes such as elastic constants of constituent SiC fiber and SiC matrix, braiding angle, porosity, and others whose values vary over a range. A sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine the dominant parameters among the abovementioned ones. We intend to determine the variability in elastic constants of SiCf/SiCm composite tubes considering the variability in dominant parameters. A chosen number of combinations of dominant variables will be sampled through Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The elastic constants of composite tube namely Young's moduli in circumferential and longitudinal direction, Poisson's ratio and shear modulus will be calculated at sampled points through finite element (FE) analysis. A polynomial response surface (PRS) will be built for each of the elastic constants to be used a surrogate to FE analysis. once the predictive accuracy of PRS is verified at the validation set of data points, the PRS will be invoked 105 times in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The variability can be calculated based on MCS-generated data which will be presented at the conference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Framework to Analyze the Requirements of a Multiport Megawatt-Level Charging Station for Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles

Widespread adoption of heavy-duty (HD) electric vehicles (EVs) will soon necessitate the use of megawatt (MW)-scale charging stations to charge high-capacity HD EV battery packs. Such a station design needs to anticipate possible station traffic, average and peak power demand, and charging/wait time targets to improve throughput and maximize revenue-generating operations. High-power direct current charging is an attractive candidate for MW-scale charging stations at the time of this study, but there are no precedents for such a station design for HD vehicles. We present a modeling and data analysis framework to elucidate the dependencies of a MW-scale station operation on vehicle traffic data and station design parameters and how that impacts vehicle electrification. This framework integrates an agent-based charging station model with vehicle schedules obtained through real-world vehicle telemetry data analysis to explore the station design and operation space. A case study applies this framework to a Class 8 vehicle telemetry dataset and uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore various design considerations for MW-scale charging stations and EV battery technologies. The results show a direct correlation between optimal charging station placement and major traffic corridors such as cities with ports, e.g., Los Angeles and Oakland. Corresponding parametric sweeps reveal that while good quality of service can be achieved with a mix of 1.2-megawatt and 100-kilowatt chargers, the resultant fast charging time of 35–40 min will need higher charging power to reach parity with refueling times.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗