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At least 469 records · Page 26

Phenotypically anchored transcriptomics across diverse agrichemicals reveals conserved pathways and unique gene expression signatures in zebrafish

Agrichemicals such as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, and biocides are widely used in agriculture, yet some are associated with adverse effects in humans and the environment. While many of these chemicals have been extensively studied in vitro and are included in the EPA’s ToxCast program, comprehensive in vivo comparisons using RNA sequencing across structurally diverse agrichemicals, in a single screening platform, are lacking. In this study, we examined structurally diverse agrichemicals found in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Toxcast Phase I and II library by statically exposing early life stage zebrafish at 6 h post fertilization (hpf) until 120 hpf at concentrations ranging from 0.25 to 100 µM. Morphological outcomes were assessed at 120 hpf across 10 endpoints, including yolk sac edema, craniofacial malformations, and axis abnormalities. Chemicals that produced robust concentration-response relationships were selected for transcriptomic profiling. For transcriptomic analysis, zebrafish were statically exposed to each chemical and sampled at 48 hpf, prior to the onset of morphological effects observed at 120 hpf. Differential expression analysis identified between 0 and 4,538 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) per chemical, with no clear correlation to morphological severity. Both DEG and co-expression network analyses revealed chemical-specific expression patterns that converged on shared biological pathways, including neurodevelopment and cytoskeletal organization. Key regulatory genes such as mylpfa and krt4 were identified within co-expression modules, suggesting their potential role in conserved toxicity mechanisms. Semantic similarity analysis of enriched gene ontology (GO) terms, when compared to existing datasets, highlighted gaps in the annotation of neurodevelopmental processes, indicating that some in vivo effects may not be fully captured by current curated resources. The results provide new insights into the modes of action of diverse agrichemicals and establish a framework for understanding how agrichemical structure relates to biological function in a vertebrate model.

agrichemical↗

Precursor Analysis Report: SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003

The SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about Davis-Besse’s 2003 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 25 January 2003, the SQL Slammer worm infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts and crashed the internet in 10 to 15 minutes, making it one of the fastest spreading worms in history. SQL Slammer is a fileless, memory-resident worm that remotely exploits a stack-based buffer overflow vulnerability on local hosts to intensively scan and rapidly self-propagate across the internet. The worm infected approximately 300,000 unpatched hosts running Microsoft Structured Query Language (SQL) Server 2000 or Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 with SQL Server Resolution Service. The SQL Slammer worm indirectly infected FirstEnergy’s Davis-Besse nuclear power plant by first infecting a consultant’s company network server and then propagating through an external misconfigured connection into Davis-Besse’s site network. The infection caused major network congestion, slow performance, data overloads, and the inability of local hosts to communicate with each other, which eventually caused a loss of availability and a loss of view when the Safety Parameter Display System (SPDS) and Plant Process Computer (PPC) crashed. At the time of the infection, the plant was already offline, the digital monitoring systems had redundant analog backups, and the plant control and safety functions were not affected, so there were no concerns of a safety breach. However, this incident resulted in many lessons learned and spawned important discussions about cybersecurity’s role in nuclear safety and electric power reliability regulation, policy, and guidance. Researchers and analysts identified 10 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 640 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Eight of the identified techniques used during Davis-Besse cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 596 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 428 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 331 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Strain-modulated intercalated phases of Pb monolayer with dual periodicity in SiC(0001)-graphene interface

Intercalation of metal atoms at the SiC(0001)-graphene (Gr) interface can provide confined 2D metal layers with interesting electronic properties. The intercalated Pb monolayer (ML) has shown the coexistence of the Gr(10 x 10)-moiré and a stripe phase, which still lacks understanding. Using density functional theory calculation and thermal annealing with ab initio molecular dynamics as motivated by experiment, we have studied the formation energy of Gr/Pb/SiC(0001) for different Pb coverages. Near the coverage of a Pb(111)-like ML mimicking the (10 x 10)-moiré, we find a slightly more stable stripe structure, where one half of the structure has compressive strain with Pb occupying the Si-top sites and the other half has tensile strain with Pb off the Si-top sites. This stripe structure along the Gr zigzag direction has a periodicity of 2.3 nm across the [1$\overline{2}$10] direction agreeing with the previous observations using scanning tunneling microscopy. Analysis with electron density difference and density of states show the tensile region has a more metallic character than the compressive region, while both are dominated by charge transfer from Pb ML to SiC(0001). As a result, the small energy difference between the stripe and Pb(111)-like structures means the two phases are almost degenerate and can coexist, which explains the experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lensing Without Borders: Measurements of galaxy-galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering in DESI DR1

We present Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing measurements obtained by cross-correlating spectroscopically observed galaxies from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) with source galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey, the Kilo-Degree Survey, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the Dark Energy Survey. Specifically, we measure the excess surface mass density $ΔΣ$ and tangential shear $γ_\mathrm{t}$ for the Bright Galaxy Sample and Luminous Red Galaxies measured within the first year of observations with DESI. To ensure robustness, we test the measurements for systematic biases, finding no significant trends related to the properties of the \acrshort{desi} lens galaxies. We identify a significant trend with the average redshift of source galaxies, however, this trend vanishes once we apply shifts to the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey redshift distributions that are also favored by their fiducial cosmology analysis. Additionally, we compare the observed scatter in the measurements with the theoretical covariance and find excess scatter, driven primarily by small-scale measurements of $r\leq 1 \, \mathrm{Mpc}/h$; measurements on larger scales are consistent at the $2\,σ$ level. We further present the projected clustering measurements $w_p$ of the galaxy samples in the the first data release of DESI. These measurements, which will be made publicly available, serve as a foundation for forthcoming cosmological analyses.

Heydenreich, S. [Lick Observ.] (ORCID:000000027273↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DESI-DR1 $3 \times 2$-pt analysis: consistent cosmology across weak lensing surveys

We present a joint cosmological analysis of projected galaxy clustering observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1), and overlapping weak gravitational lensing observations from three datasets: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y3), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC-Y3). This combination of large-scale structure probes allows us to measure a set of $3 \times 2$-pt correlation functions, breaking the degeneracies between parameters in cosmological fits to individual observables. We obtain mutually-consistent constraints on the parameter $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.786^{+0.022}_{-0.019}$ from the combination of DESI-DR1 and DES-Y3, $S_8 = 0.760^{+0.020}_{-0.018}$ from KiDS-1000, and $S_8 = 0.771^{+0.026}_{-0.027}$ from HSC-Y3. These parameter determinations are consistent with fits to the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background dataset, albeit with $1.5-2σ$ lower values in the $S_8-Ω_{\rm m}$ plane. We perform our analysis with a unified pipeline tailored to the requirements of each cosmic shear survey, which self-consistently determines cosmological and astrophysical parameters. We generate an analytical covariance matrix for the correlation data including all cross-covariances between probes, and we design a new blinding procedure to safeguard our analysis against confirmation bias, whilst leaving goodness-of-fit statistics unchanged. Our study is part of a suite of papers that present joint cosmological analyses of DESI-DR1 and weak gravitational lensing datasets.

Porredon, A. [Madrid, CIEMAT; Edinburgh U., Inst. ↗

Evaluation of the rheological and electrical percolation of high‐density polyethylene/carbon black composites using mathematical models

Abstract In this work, conductive polymer composites (CPCs) of bio‐based polyethylene (BioPe) containing different concentrations of carbon black (CB) were developed. By using oscillatory rheology analysis, a Newtonian plateau was observed in BioPe, and all BioPe/CB composites had a behavior of a pseudo‐solid and that composites with volume fractions ranging from 0.24 to 0.56 presented higher viscosity, storage, and loss modulus. This suggests the formation of a percolated network and by using the power‐law models, it was observed that the electrical percolation threshold was higher than the rheological percolation threshold. The electrical conductivity was measured using the four‐point probe method and a sigmoid model was used to predict the CPCs' electrical conductivity percolation threshold. The results indicated that the four‐point probe method presented satisfactory results according to the calculated standard deviations and voltage–current characteristics for each round of measurements considering the same ranging as used in rheology analysis. The analytical model used showed a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) higher than 95%, allowing the prediction of the electrical conductivity of the CPC and the percolation threshold as a function of the volumetric fraction of the CB.

da SiIva, Moacy P.↗

BEYONDPLANCK III. Commander3

We describe the computational infrastructure for end-to-end Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis implemented by the BeyondPlanck Collaboration. The code is called Commander3. It provides a statistically consistent framework for global analysis of CMB and microwave observations and may be useful for a wide range of legacy, current, and future experiments. The paper has three main goals. Firstly, we provide a high-level overview of the existing code base, aiming to guide readers who wish to extend and adapt the code according to their own needs or re-implement it from scratch in a different programming language. Secondly, we discuss some critical computational challenges that arise within any global CMB analysis framework, for instance in-memory compression of time-ordered data, fast Fourier transform optimization, and parallelization and load-balancing. Thirdly, we quantify the CPU and RAM requirements for the current BEYONDPLANCK analysis, finding that a total of 1.5 TB of RAM is required for efficient analysis and that the total cost of a full Gibbs sample for LFI is 170 CPU-hrs, including both low-level processing and high-level component separation, which is well within the capabilities of current low-cost computing facilities. The existing code base is made publicly available under a GNU General Public Library (GPL) license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Going Off Grid: A Comparative Study of the Lagrangian and Eulerian Perspectives of New Particle Formation Events

New particle formation and growth (NPF&G) is the process by which ultrafine particles are formed from gas-phase precursors. NPF&G is the dominant source of global aerosol number with important influences on climate. Most observations of NPF&G events are conducted at stationary sites; however, NPF&G observed from stationary sites is influenced by gradual or rapid changes in the air masses passing over the site, complicating NPF&G analysis. In this work, we use observations and a 3D aerosol model to compare aerosol size distributions at a stationary site (Southern Great Plains [SGP] observatory, Oklahoma, USA) and along Lagrangian trajectories crossing the site. The model simulates the NPF&G events reasonably well at SGP. Using the model to compare the Lagrangian and stationary perspectives, we can explain previously unanalyzable days with some evidence of NPF&G as either non-event or analyzable NPF&G days. We find most of the unanalyzable NPF&G days are due to isolated and inhomogeneous NPF&G occurring upwind of the stationary site, often in the outflow of urban regions. Finally, we compare formation rates of 3 nm particles, growth rates, and the survival probability of 3 nm particles growing to 25 nm between the stationary and Lagrangian perspectives. Because of the much larger number of analyzable days along the Lagrangian trajectories, this perspective potentially provides more robust statistics and better characterization of NPF&G event extremes. Our method for extracting chemical/physical properties along Lagrangian trajectories from 3D models can be applied to a wide range of science questions.

O’Donnell, Samuel E. [Colorado State Univ., Fort C↗

Temporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987

As the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux, soil respiration (R S ) has been stimulated by climate warming. However, the magnitude and dynamics of such stimulations of soil respiration are highly uncertain at the global scale, undermining our confidence in future climate projections. Here, we present an analysis of global R S observations from 1987–2016. R S increased (P < 0.001) at a rate of 27.66 g C m -2 yr -2 (equivalent to 0.161 Pg C yr -2 ) in 1987–1999 globally but became unchanged in 2000–2016, which were related to complex temporal variations of temperature anomalies and soil C stocks. However, global heterotrophic respiration (R h ) derived from microbial decomposition of soil C increased in 1987–2016 (P < 0.001), suggesting accumulated soil C losses. Given the warmest years on records after 2015, our modeling analysis shows a possible resuscitation of global R S rise. This study of naturally occurring shifts in R S over recent decades has provided invaluable insights for designing more effective policies addressing future climate challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The EBLM project – VIII. First results for M-dwarf mass, radius, and effective temperature measurements using CHEOPS light curves

ABSTRACT The accuracy of theoretical mass, radius, and effective temperature values for M-dwarf stars is an active topic of debate. Differences between observed and theoretical values have raised the possibility that current theoretical stellar structure and evolution models are inaccurate towards the low-mass end of the main sequence. To explore this issue, we use the CHEOPS satellite to obtain high-precision light curves of eclipsing binaries with low-mass stellar companions. We use these light curves combined with the spectroscopic orbit for the solar-type companion to measure the mass, radius, and effective temperature of the M-dwarf star. Here, we present the analysis of three eclipsing binaries. We use the pycheops data analysis software to fit the observed transit and eclipse events of each system. Two of our systems were also observed by the TESS satellite – we similarly analyse these light curves for comparison. We find consistent results between CHEOPS and TESS, presenting three stellar radii and two stellar effective temperature values of low-mass stellar objects. These initial results from our on-going observing programme with CHEOPS show that we can expect to have ∼24 new mass, radius, and effective temperature measurements for very low-mass stars within the next few years.

Swayne, M. I.↗

Inverse Analysis with Variational Autoencoders: A Comparison of Shallow and Deep Networks

Inverse problems are applied to determine unknown properties by matching observational data with a physical model that often takes many parameters as input. To overcome the underconstrained nature of inverse problems and achieve good performance, an approach is presented involving regularization with a technique known as a variational autoencoder (VAE), which is trained to map a high-dimensional parameter space with a complex structure to a low-dimensional latent space with a simple structure. We apply this approach to unconditioned realizations of the parameters (heterogeneous hydraulic fields) for a hydrogeological inverse problem. Two types of hydraulic conductivity fields are used to evaluate the characterization for the different levels of heterogeneity complexity of the physical inputs. This approach keeps the computational cost of generating the training data low. The reason is unconditioned realizations neither rely on the observational data used to perform the inverse analysis nor require any groundwater flow model forward runs. In addition, this approach applies regularization on a low-dimensional latent space from the VAE and increases optimization efficiency through automatic differentiation. Furthermore, two different neural network (NN) structures are tested for their utility in using the VAE for inverse analysis. The performance of a deep, convolutional neural network strongly depends on the dimensionality of the latent space, which requires tuning. In contrast, a shallow, dense neural network provides consistently accurate characterization without tuning. Furthermore, our approach evaluates the advantages of the shallow, dense neural network over the deep, convolutional one and enables future application to a wide range of inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experimental and computational investigation of the bond energy of thorium dicarbonyl cation and theoretical elucidation of its isomerization mechanism to the thermodynamically most stable isomer, thorium oxide ketenylidene cation, OTh + CCO

Collision-induced dissociation (CID) of [Th,2C,2O] + with Xe is performed using a guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer (GIBMS). The only products observed are ThCO + and Th + by sequential loss of CO ligands. The experimental findings and theoretical calculations support that the structure of [Th,2C,2O] + is the bent homoleptic thorium dicarbonyl cation, Th + (CO) 2 , having quartet spin, which is both thermodynamically and kinetically stable enough in the gas phase to be observed in our GIBMS instrument. Analysis of the kinetic energy-dependent cross sections for this CID reaction yields the first experimental determination of the bond dissociation energy (BDE) of (CO)Th + –CO at 0 K as 1.05 ± 0.09 eV. A theoretical BDE calculated at the CCSD(T) level with cc-pVXZ (X = T and Q) basis sets and a complete basis set (CBS) extrapolation is in very good agreement with the experimental result. Although the doublet spin bent thorium oxide ketenylidene cation, OTh + CCO, is calculated to be the most thermodynamically stable structure, it is not observed in our experiment where [Th,2C,2O] + is formed by association of Th + and CO in a direct current discharge flow tube (DC/FT) ion source. Potential energy profiles of both quartet and doublet spin are constructed to elucidate the isomerization mechanism of Th + (CO) 2 to OTh + CCO. The failure to observe OTh + CCO is attributed to a barrier associated with C–C bond formation, which makes OTh + CCO kinetically inaccessible under our experimental conditions. Furthermore, chemical bonding patterns in low-lying states of linear and bent Th + (CO) 2 and OTh + CCO isomers are also investigated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Metabolic flux, metabolite, and transcript analysis uncover reprogramming of metabolism toward higher seed oil

Overexpression of WRINKLED1 (WRI1), a master regulator of glycolysis and fatty acid biosynthesis, together with DIACYLGLYCEROL ACYLTRANSFERASE1 (DGAT1), which catalyzes the final step of triacylglycerol assembly, is a promising strategy for enhancing seed oil content. However, how these regulators coordinate system-wide metabolic reprogramming at the levels of gene expression, metabolite pools, and fluxes remains poorly understood. To address this, we performed 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, metabolomics, and transcriptomics on in vitro cultured pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) embryos overexpressing the native WRI1 and DGAT1 homologs. Here, in cultured embryos, WRI1/DGAT1 overexpression increased triacylglycerol accumulation by 28% while reducing protein content by 34%, relative to the wild type. Embryos showed ∼20-fold and 50-fold upregulation of WRI1 and DGAT1 along with induction of WRI1 target genes in glycolysis and fatty acid biosynthesis. Genes associated with photosynthesis and Calvin cycle functions were also upregulated, whereas genes encoding ribosomal proteins and seed storage proteins were strongly repressed, consistent with the observed lipid–protein tradeoff. Flux analysis revealed that enhanced triacylglycerol biosynthesis is supported by increased flux through the Rubisco shunt and cytosolic pyruvate kinase, while the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and malic enzyme contributed little to NADPH or pyruvate supply. Metabolomic profiling revealed extensive perturbations in glycolytic intermediates, tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites, and amino acids. In plant grown seeds, WRI1/DGAT1 lines also showed a modest but significant increase in total lipid content. Collectively, these findings reveal how WRI1 and DGAT1 reprogram central metabolism to enhance oil accumulation, with relevance to mature seeds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HD 63021: Chromospheric Activity and Mass Transfer in a Close Binary

Prompted by X-ray detections from multiple surveys, we investigated the A-type star HD 63021 and found that it is a double-lined spectroscopic binary with highly variable emission associated with the primary star. Analysis of our multiepoch spectroscopic observations, the majority of which were carried out on small-aperture telescopes, indicates a very short orbital period of just 2.9 days and a mass ratio M {sub 2}/M {sub 1} of 0.23. The A1 V star is a slow rotator, with a rotational speed of ∼34 km s{sup −1}. Assuming that its mass is 2.3 M {sub ⊙}, the present-day secondary is an evolved star of ∼0.5 M {sub ⊙} that nearly fills its Roche lobe. This secondary star rotates comparatively rapidly at ∼44 km s{sup −1}, and we see evidence that it is chromospherically active. Analysis of a photometric light curve from TESS reveals two strong periods, one at the orbital period for the system and another at half the orbital period. These findings suggest that HD 63021 is a close binary system undergoing mass transfer from the secondary star onto the primary star—in all ways like an Algol eclipsing binary system, except without the eclipse. We discuss the system’s mass transfer, which is not steady but seems to run in fits and bursts, and infer the system’s basic physical properties from an orbital parameter study, the Roche lobe geometry, and its extant X-ray emission.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗