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Results for “Optimization Under Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Ground-based temperature and humidity profiling: combining active and passive remote sensors

Abstract. Thermodynamic profiles in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are important observations for a range of atmospheric research and operational needs. These profiles can be retrieved from passively sensed spectral infrared (IR) or microwave (MW) radiance observations or can be more directly measured by active remote sensors such as water vapor differential absorption lidars (DIALs). This paper explores the synergy of combining ground-based IR, MW, and DIAL observations using an optimal-estimation retrieval framework, quantifying the reduction in the uncertainty in the retrieved profiles and the increase in information content as additional observations are added to IR-only and MW-only retrievals. This study uses ground-based observations collected during the Perdigão field campaign in central Portugal in 2017 and during the DIAL demonstration campaign at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in 2017. The results show that the information content in both temperature and water vapor is higher for the IR instrument relative to the MW instrument (thereby resulting in smaller uncertainties) and that the combined IR + MW retrieval is very similar to the IR-only retrieval below 1.5 km. However, including the partial profile of water vapor observed by the DIAL increases the information content in the combined IR + DIAL and MW + DIAL water vapor retrievals substantially, with the exact impact vertically depending on the characteristics of the DIAL instrument itself. Furthermore, there is a slight increase in the information content in the retrieved temperature profile using the IR + DIAL relative to the IR-only; this was not observed in the MW + DIAL retrieval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programming with decision-dependent moment-based ambiguity sets

We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based ambiguity set in to the multistage decision-dependent setting, and derive mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulations of stage-wise subproblems. We develop methods for attaining lower and upper bounds of the optimal objective value of the multistage MISDPs, and approximate them using a series of MILPs. We deploy the Stochastic Dual Dynamic integer Programming (SDDiP) method for solving the problem under the three ambiguity sets with risk-neutral or risk-averse objective functions, and conduct numerical studies on multistage facility-location instances having diverse sizes under different parameter and uncertainty settings. Furthermore, our results show that the SDDiP quickly finds optimal solutions for moderate-sized instances under the first two ambiguity sets, and also finds good approximate bounds for the multistage MISDPs derived under the third ambiguity set. We also demonstrate the efficacy of incorporating decision-dependent distributional ambiguity in multistage decision-making processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Glass formulation and composition optimization with property models: A review

Abstract Glass is a versatile material with a remarkable history and many practical applications. It plays a critical role in our everyday lives, the advancement of science, and the development of many technologies. The Edisonian type trial‐and‐error method was commonly used for conventional design of glass compositions, which was time‐consuming and costly. With the urgent need to develop new glass compositions for technology applications rapidly, it has become necessary to develop precise property models with predictive powers using large databases and efficient formulation approaches. This paper reviews the design of glass compositions using these analytical and numerical models of composition–structure–property relations of glasses, some based on large databases and machine learning approaches. Aspects of data collection, model fitting, feature extraction, model evaluation, and uncertainty quantification will be covered. Furthermore, advances in the glass optimization framework and available tools are summarized with examples. The outlook and perspective for further glass property model development and formulation approaches are discussed.

Lu, Xiaonan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system resilience through defender-attacker-defender models with uncertainty: an overview

Protecting and fortifying a power system to make it resilient is an important and hard problem to solve. The interaction between defenders and attackers, the availability of information and the complexity of power system require carefully selecting models and presenting the underlying assumptions. Trilevel defender-attacker-defender models have been developed to investigate the resilience of power systems. In this paper, we review trilevel models in power system application, with the aim of demonstrating the accessibility and applicability of these complex optimization formulations and discussing the underlying assumptions from these models. In particular, we highlight modeling choices, algorithmic details, and how operational and information uncertainty affects resilience versus the traditional complete-knowledge-based optimal solutions. We also describe other similar relevant models which lack such uncertainty and discuss insights on how to address operational, attacker, and defender related uncertainties in future research efforts.

multi-level optimization, defender-attacker-defend↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]

This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: how can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in-situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions of the SRDB has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n=5173 and v5.0 n=10366) to determine how additional data influenced the global sum and uncertainty of Rs as predicted by a quantile regression forest model. A model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C yr-1, and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1, whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C yr-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1. Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C yr-1, respectively. Interestingly, SRDBv5’s inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) thus resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The SRDBv5 is still biased towards northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested that an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C yr-1 and lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial inconsistencies that influence model parameterization and interpretation that should be addressed to improve regional- to global-scale predictions.

Stell, Emma↗
DOE OSTI2020

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using machine learning to jointly harness the strength of microscopic, fundamental-science driven and macroscopic, application-driven experiments

The PARADIGM project aims at accelerating progress in science by quantitatively answering the following question: What is the optimal combination of fundamental-science and application driven experiments to maximally reduce pertinent data uncertainties? Hence, we are bridging between microscopic experiments and data, and macroscopic simulations and experiments. Answering this question entails solving a high-dimensional and complex optimization problem which we solve with machine learning techniques.

LANSCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic gradient descent for optimization for nuclear systems

The use of gradient descent methods for optimizing k-eigenvalue nuclear systems has been shown to be useful in the past, but the use of k-eigenvalue gradients have proved computationally challenging due to their stochastic nature. ADAM is a gradient descent method that accounts for gradients with a stochastic nature. This analysis uses challenge problems constructed to verify if ADAM is a suitable tool to optimize k-eigenvalue nuclear systems. ADAM is able to successfully optimize nuclear systems using the gradients of k-eigenvalue problems despite their stochastic nature and uncertainty. Furthermore, it is clearly demonstrated that low-compute time, high-variance estimates of the gradient lead to better performance in the optimization challenge problems tested here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Minimizing Optimal Transport for Functions with Fixed-Size Nodal Sets

Consider the class of zero-mean functions with fixed L ∞ and L 1 norms and exactly N ϵ N nodal points. Which functions f minimize W p (f + ,f – ), the Wasserstein distance between the measures whose densities are the positive and negative parts? We provide a complete solution to this minimization problem on the line and the circle, which provides sharp constants for previously proven “uncertainty principle”-type inequalities, i.e., lower bounds on N • W p (f + ,f – ). We further show that, while such inequalities hold in many metric measure spaces, they are no longer sharp when the non-branching assumption is violated; indeed, for metric star-graphs, the optimal lower bound on W p (f + ,f – ) is not inversely proportional to the size of the nodal set, N. Here, based on similar reductions, we make connections between the analogous problem of minimizing W p (f + ,f – ) for f defined on Ω C R d with an equivalent optimal domain partition problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

ACCRUE—An Integral Index for Measuring Experimental Relevance in Support of Neutronic Model Validation

A key challenge for the introduction of any design changes, e.g., advanced fuel concepts, first-of-a-kind nuclear reactor designs, etc., is the cost of the associated experiments, which are required by law to validate the use of computer models for the various stages, starting from conceptual design, to deployment, licensing, operation, and safety. To achieve that, a criterion is needed to decide on whether a given experiment, past or planned, is relevant to the application of interest. This allows the analyst to select the best experiments for the given application leading to the highest measures of confidence for the computer model predictions. The state-of-the-art methods rely on the concept of similarity or representativity, which is a linear Gaussian-based inner-product metric measuring the angle—as weighted by a prior model parameters covariance matrix—between two gradients, one representing the application and the other a single validation experiment. This manuscript emphasizes the concept of experimental relevance which extends the basic similarity index to account for the value accrued from past experiments and the associated experimental uncertainties, both currently missing from the extant similarity methods. Accounting for multiple experiments is key to the overall experimental cost reduction by prescreening for redundant information from multiple equally-relevant experiments as measured by the basic similarity index. Accounting for experimental uncertainties is also important as it allows one to select between two different experimental setups, thus providing for a quantitative basis for sensor selection and optimization. The proposed metric is denoted by ACCRUE, short for Accumulative Correlation Coefficient for Relevance of Uncertainties in Experimental validation. Using a number of criticality experiments for highly enriched fast metal systems and low enriched thermal compound systems with accident tolerant fuel concept, the manuscript will compare the performance of the ACCRUE and basic similarity indices for prioritizing the relevance of a group of experiments to the given application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gradient-Informed Design Optimization of Select Nuclear Systems

In this work, we present a gradient-informed design optimization of nuclear reactor core components based on neutronics objectives with both continuous and discrete materials. The main argument in favor of using gradient-informed design optimization is that it scales well with increasing dimensionality of the design space. First, a challenge problem with 121 free parameters is solved with a gradient-informed method and then with a genetic algorithm. Then, a challenge problem to optimize the flux profile of a simplified assembly with eight axial zones is solved. Both challenge problems are solved using directly calculated derivatives from Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) in the SCALE package. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a discrete optimization problem—selection of materials for 121 voxels—can be lifted into a continuous problem with mixed materials. In the continuous space, adjoint-based gradients are well-defined, and gradient descent is applicable. Then, a forcing function is introduced that with the selection of an appropriately sized hyperparameter can be used to guide the optimized continuous solution back into a discrete solution. This paper presents an account of the challenges that were faced when applying a gradient-informed optimization algorithm using a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the gradient information and compares a gradient descent optimization method to a genetic algorithm optimization of the same geometry. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential use of adjoint-based gradient calculations in design optimization of nuclear systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗