Impacts of EPA’s finalized power plant greenhouse gas standards
Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs.
Bistline, John↗
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Expanding Solar Access: State Community Solar Landscape (2022)
This report supports the NCSP 2025 goal by documenting existing state-level community solar policies and programs. Although the purpose of this report is to present the existing market and policy status for community solar, with increasing attention on expanding access to solar energy for LMI customers, we also discuss key considerations for incorporating energy justice into community solar policies.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Analyzing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for Their Effects on Nuclear Cost Data
Decarbonizing to meet aggressive climate change mitigation targets requires energy transition within all sectors. In the industrial sector, emissions will need to decrease by 65–90% by 2050 to avert global warming greater than 1.5°C (IPCC 2022). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and Defense Production Act (DPA) have clean energy requirements and provide financial incentives to accelerate the use of clean energy technologies in the industrial sector. It is important to note that IRA is the most extensive action ever taken by Congress and the U.S. government to combat climate change (US CBO 2021, 2022). The energy system provisions comprise most of the estimated climate and energy support. A better understanding of those provisions in the above mentioned acts and laws is crucial to assessing their impact on the equivalent energy costs to the power plant owners (impact on net revenue in $/MWh) across different energy technologies, market deployment potential offered to different energy technologies applications, and energy system research modeling. The purpose of the report is to shed light on IRA and BIL provisions with particular attention to impacts on the nuclear industry. The report also seeks to understand potential equivalent energy cost savings for nuclear energy technologies from other laws and programs in conjunction with IRA, BIL, loan program guarantees, and DPA. The report reviews recent legislation on energy policy and translates that policy to impacts on equivalent nuclear costs for the purpose of modeling policy in energy scenarios.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Rethinking agrivoltaic incentive programs: A science-based approach to encourage practical design solutions
Agrivoltaic systems are promising solutions to address global food and energy challenges by combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics. However, the lack of appropriate regulations to define and guide their implementation constrains the growth of agrivoltaic systems in the U.S. This study uses a shading and radiation tool to evaluate an existing agrivoltaic incentive program that defines agrivoltaic designs based on shading reduction limits and panel height requirements. Our analysis indicates that structuring policy requirements around shading, and not light availability, may lead to an underestimation of crop suitability by neglecting diffuse radiation. Furthermore, we show that agrivoltaic systems can avoid increasing panel height if policy acknowledges use-case scenarios where farming only occurs between rows. In light of these insights, this study proposes two key policy recommendations: (1) benchmark crop suitability based on daily light integral (DLI) requirements for a shade-intolerant crop selected to represent a prevalent crop in the region, and (2) include an incentive scenario where agriculture is only required between rows. Furthermore, these two recommendations can potentially incentivize designs that are practical and closer in cost to conventional solar farms, thereby accelerating the adoption of cost-effective agrivoltaic systems.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
How to support EV adoption: Tradeoffs between charging infrastructure investments and vehicle subsidies in California
Supporting the adoption of zero-emission vehicle (ZEVs), including plug-in electric vehicles (EVs), has become a priority for governments due to their ability to reduce petroleum demand, improve air quality, and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Optimal strategies to accelerate EV adoption must weigh the relative value of alternative policy mechanisms to consumers, including public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies. We use a historically validated light-duty vehicle consumer choice tool, the ADOPT model, to simulate personal light-duty vehicle adoption and related emissions in California. ADOPT is updated to incorporate a quantification of the tangible value of public charging infrastructure, allowing us to simulate the impact of investments in public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies under different scenarios. We show that both policies result in increased EV adoption, with the most effective policy varying depending on vehicle technology assumptions. Under conservative technology improvement assumptions, infrastructure investments are most effective in promoting EV sales and reducing CO2 emissions, while under optimistic technology improvement assumptions a combination of infrastructure and subsidies best supports EV sales and CO2 emission reductions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Integrating science for water security governance
Hydrological extremes are intensifying globally, increasing the complexity of decisions required to ensure water security. Advances in hydrological science, modeling, and data systems have expanded the technical frontier of water research, yet uptake of scientific insights in policy and management decisions remains limited. This persistent science–policy gap is not primarily a failure of knowledge generation or robustness, but an institutional challenge shaped by how scientific and governance systems are organized, coordinated, and connected to support the effective use of scientific knowledge. These challenges are particularly pronounced in multi-level and transboundary water governance, where decisions span jurisdictions and require coordination across institutional and political boundaries. We synthesize research at the science–policy interface and evidence from water security initiatives to show how institutional arrangements, scientific tool development, and research practices enable or constrain the sustained use of scientific knowledge in water-security governance processes. Building on these insights, we develop ‘shared decision infrastructure’ as a framing to describe how scientific knowledge is embedded within the institutional, relational, and procedural arrangements that connect science to decision-making processes over time. We translate this framing into a practical intervention roadmap centered on institutional design, tool translation, sustained co-production, and outcome-oriented evaluation to support the integration of science into ongoing governance processes. By positioning science as shared decision infrastructure, the roadmap clarifies how researchers can design scientific efforts that support more coordinated, accountable, and adaptive water security decisions amid deepening uncertainty.
M whitney, Kristen [NASA Goddard Space Flight Cent↗
The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to minimize the impact of climate change by tackling hard-toabate sectors and historical emissions. Direct air capture and storage (DACS) is an important CDR technology, but it remains unclear when and how DACS can be economically viable. Here, we use a bottom-up engineering-economic model together with top-down technological learning projections to calculate plant-level cost trajectories for four DACS technologies. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs of these technologies can plateau by 2050 at around $\$$100-600 t-CO 2 -1 mainly via capital cost reduction through aggressive deployment, but still exceed the optimistic targets defined by countries such as the US (i.e., $\$$100 t-CO 2 -1 ). A further analysis of existing policy mechanisms indicates that strong, project-catered policy support will be required to create market opportunities, accelerate DACS scale-up and lower the costs further. Our work suggests that strategic DACS deployment and operation must be coupled with strong policies to minimise the cost of DACS and maximise the opportunity to make a planet-scale climate impact.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Economic and sustainability prospects for wet waste valorization: The case for sustainable aviation fuel from arrested anaerobic digestion
Not Available
Wiatrowski, Matthew R. (ORCID:0000000206587178)↗
Incorporating energy justice and equity objectives in power system models
Ensuring an equitable energy transition requires models and tools that can account for equity and energy justice goals. Power system models (PSMs) are widely used throughout industry, government, and academia to simulate or optimize the operations and planning of current and future electricity systems under different scenarios, parameter assumptions and policy frameworks. These models are important tools that allow users to understand how the power system may evolve under different future conditions, but importantly, they are also used to inform policy implementation and investment decisions across all aspects of the power system. However, existing models seldom include energy justice considerations and therefore energy justice priorities are not reflected in the policies and other decision-making processes that are informed by these models. The purpose of this review is to provide a framework that energy modelers can draw upon to integrate energy justice and equity goals into PSMs. To this end, 99 papers that examine the intersection of energy justice and power system models are summarized and ten core aspects of the power system that can impact energy justice outcomes, and therefore require new modeling approaches, are identified. This review then establishes key current practices, challenges, and opportunities associated with capturing energy justice considerations in power system models across these ten aspects. This review concludes by proposing four key research directions that should be pursued to improve the representation of energy justice and equity in power system modeling. Finally, this review also addresses challenges raised by United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7, which aims to ensure affordable energy access to everyone and Sustainable Development Goal 13, which aims to take urgent action to address climate change.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures
Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France’s ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Variational actor-critic algorithms,
We introduce a class of variational actor-critic algorithms based on a variational formulation over both the value function and the policy. The objective function of the variational formulation consists of two parts: one for maximizing the value function and the other for minimizing the Bellman residual. Besides the vanilla gradient descent with both the value function and the policy updates, we propose two variants, the clipping method and the flipping method, in order to speed up the convergence. We also prove that, when the prefactor of the Bellman residual is sufficiently large, the fixed point of the algorithm is close to the optimal policy.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO 2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment
China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m 3 or below for annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO 2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM 2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO 2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM 2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China
China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Pathways of China's PM 2.5 air quality 2015–2060 in the context of carbon neutrality
Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, reaching the level of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM 2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios that link global and Chinese climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM 2.5 air quality annual standard (35 μg/m3) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM 2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 μg/m 3 by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the WHO guidelines and protecting public health.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Estimating the Rebound Effect of the U.S. Road Freight Transport
The United States (U.S.) road freight sector has continued to grow over recent decades. Growth in road freight could result in more fuel consumption and hence increased greenhouse gas emissions. Policymakers have attempted to manage the growth of energy usage through improved fuel economy based on technological advances. However, such improvements may not lead to anticipated goals because of the rebound effect, where improvements in energy efficiency trigger more travel and energy consumption that offsets energy savings. Thus, this study aims to determine the potential rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in the U.S. road freight sector. Eight fuel cost models are applied and asymmetric price response is incorporated in estimating the U.S. road freight sector’s rebound effect from 1980 to 2016. In addition, a recently developed data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the annual rebound effect in the road freight sector. The results suggest that, after accounting for the asymmetric price response, the average rebound effect of the U.S. road freight sector ranges from 6.9% to 8.8%, a level considerably less than that found for several industrialized countries and emerging economies. However, a considerable increase in the rebound effect has been seen in more recent years. Here, the findings suggest that overlooking the rebound effect in environmental policies could impede the goal of reducing total energy consumption and accompanying emissions. Policymakers should incorporate the rebound effect from efficiency enhancement in policy development and utilize some potential programs to reduce the adverse influence of rebound effect in related policies.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Analysis of mobility data to build contact networks for COVID-19
As social distancing policies and recommendations went into effect in response to COVID-19, people made rapid changes to the places they visit. These changes are clearly seen in mobility data, which records foot traffic using location trackers in cell phones. While mobility data is often used to extract the number of customers that visit a particular business or business type, it is the frequency and duration of concurrent occupancy at those sites that governs transmission. Understanding the way people interact at different locations can help target policies and inform contact tracing and prevention strategies. This paper outlines methods to extract interactions from mobility data and build networks that can be used in epidemiological models. Several measures of interaction are extracted: interactions between people, the cumulative interactions for a single person, and cumulative interactions that occur at particular businesses. Network metrics are computed to identify structural trends which show clear changes based on the timing of stay-at-home orders. Measures of interaction and structural trends in the resulting networks can be used to better understand potential spreading events, the percent of interactions that can be classified as close contacts, and the impact of policy choices to control transmission.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.
This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Federal Workplace Charging Program Guide
This report serves as a program guide to support federal agencies in developing their own policy documents for workplace charging. It provides suggested language that agencies can incorporate into their own policies to define requirements for charging privately owned vehicles (POVs) on government-owned or leased property. The Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act authorizes the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) and other federal agencies to install, operate, and maintain electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) for POVs in parking areas used by federal employees and authorized users, and it requires the collection of fees to recover the costs of installing, operating, and maintaining this equipment. This guide offers details for agency facility managers, transportation personnel, employees, and vendors regarding the charging of electric vehicles (EVs) for use by employees and personnel at government-owned and leased buildings. This guide describes the requirements associated with federal agencies providing EV charging in publicly accessible sites. The policy also describes when and how fees may be imposed to cover costs of electricity, as well as EVSE units and installations in various scenarios.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗