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DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study [Slides]

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

International Photovoltaic Modeling Intercomparison [Slides]

Irradiance transposition models seem to perform well, except the Isotropic with -11.25 W/m 2 underestimation. Most temperature models could not capture behavior when ΔΤ between module and ambient is negative. Uncertainties due to derate factors: modelers overbudgeted resulting in significant power underestimation; maybe ~10% is appropriate for commercial systems but not lab-scale? Most software and models cluster together showing good reproducibility among participants. Modeler’s skills seem to be more important than the PV model itself (flat efficiency with irradiance, positive power temperature coefficients, etc.). Results and best practices will be communicated in a journal article.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANopt platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models: Preprint

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANoptTM platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

district↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relating Aerial Infrared Thermography Defects to Photovoltaic Performance: Preprint

In this research, we examine the relationship between aerial IR defect analysis and photovoltaic (PV) performance data for twelve utility- and commercial-scale solar sites in the United States. To do this, we fuse the site diagram geoJSON's, aerial infrared thermography (aIRT) defect analyses, and associated inverter time series, allowing for a direct comparison between site defects and time series data. Defect analyses were provided by Zeitview, under its Solar Insights platform. Following the data fusion process, we look at the relationship between system performance and aIRT defects. We investigate the relationship between degradation and hotspot defects, as well as the relationship between AC power data and offline strings and misaligned modules. In general, system degradation was not affected by long-term or balance-of-system (BoS) defects as they occurred infrequently in the data set. However, for one system, a near statistically significant relationship (p-value=0.057) was found when comparing the degradation of inverter blocks with several multi-hotspot defects to all other inverter blocks without this particular defect. There was strong alignment when comparing short-term recoverable module defects such as stuck trackers and offline strings to time series data. In general, we found that when an inverter block has more than 80% of modules flagged for one of these defects, its AC power time data is flat-lined and the inverter block is not producing.

aerial inspection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metamorphic Epitaxy Solutions for Thermophotovoltaic and Laser Power Conversion Applications

Metamorphic GaInAs enables photovoltaic devices optimized for a wide range of bandgaps between 0.35 and 1.41 eV. We have developed compositionally graded buffers made of GaInP and AlGaInAs to enable growth of these devices on GaAs substrates with low dislocation densities and high performance. We present results for devices grown on both graded buffer materials with device bandgaps in the range 0.58-1.41 eV and compare the benefits and drawbacks of each material system. These results enable high performance for applications such as thermophotovoltaics and optical power transmission using high power lasers.

III-V↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-Physical Events Emulation Based Transmission and Distribution Co-Simulation for Situation Awareness and Grid Anomaly (SAGA) Detection: Preprint

Energy management of transmission and distribution networks is becoming more challenged with the accelerated increasing of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation and distributed energy storage. To better analyze the impacts of DERs on both transmission and distribution systems, a comprehensive transmission and distribution co-simulation platform should be developed. Furthermore, with DERs more actively participated in system operation such as providing real time grid services, their cyber vulnerability should be better understood to maintain system reliability. This paper discussed a cyber-physical events emulation based transmission & distribution co-simulation platform to perform different cyber events emulation and analyze the impacts of cyber physical events happened in distribution system on the T&D system operation. The case studies with both a transmission network and a synthetic distribution network data validate that the proposed T&D co-simulation platform can perform comprehensive cyber physical events emulation. Therefore, with extensive simulation using the proposed model, the system operator can accumulate adequate training data for the system situation awareness and grid anomaly detection purpose.

31 CESER - Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Securit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Computing Annual Report 2024

In fiscal year (FY) 2024, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) took a major leap forward with the completed full buildout of Kestrel, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's newest high-performance computing (HPC) system. Kestrel is already supporting science across the portfolio, bringing roughly 44 petaflops of computing power, which is more than five times the capacity of our previous supercomputer, Eagle. By delivering greater GPU capacity, Kestrel enables faster progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and opens new avenues in energy research - from defining long-term planning scenarios to accommodate a growing power system to material discovery to improving energy efficiency in photovoltaics (PV). Across the portfolio, research is being accelerated by Kestrel's impressive power. During FY24, 427 projects and more than 700 researchers used NREL's HPC, supporting the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy across 13 funding areas. Through these collaborations, researchers produced more than 450 technical outputs, including 195 articles in peer-reviewed publications, pushing the boundaries of science and engineering. This year's report features new sections spotlighting the expanding roles of Artificial Intelligence and Accelerated Computing. We also introduce an early career section to celebrate the accomplishments of our up-and-coming researchers, whose pioneering work is shaping the future of energy. We hope you enjoy the new insights and discoveries highlighted in these pages.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Field Performance of South-Facing and East-West Facing Bifacial Modules in the Arctic

This paper presents the first systematic comparison between south-facing monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules, as well as between south-facing bifacial and vertical east-west facing bifacial PV modules in Alaska. The state’s solar industry, driven by the high price of energy and dropping equipment costs, is quickly growing. The challenges posed by extreme sun angles in Alaska’s northern regions also present opportunities for unique system designs. Annual bifacial gains of 21% were observed between side by side south-facing monofacial and bifacial modules. Vertical east-west bifacial modules had virtually the same annual production as south-facing latitude tilt bifacial modules, but with different energy production profiles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Machine Learning as a Tool to Explain Variance in Deployed Photovoltaic (PV) System Degradation

Degradation remains a large uncertainty in forecasting production for PV plants, creating significant risk for developers and financiers. This study aims to quantify the distribution and drivers of degradation across 10,000 PV systems deployed for distributed or utility generation by training a machine learning model to predict year-over-year degradation rates from metadata characteristics. A combination of K-Means clustering and random forest regressor were found to associate multiple metadata features as potential drivers of degradation, including module characteristics, system design, and climate features. From this, it is inferred that if machine learning is able to find complex patterns between metadata features and system performance loss, such methods can be employed to help developers and financiers make data-informed decisions when estimating long-term energy production forecasts in financial models.

Dunn, Jimmy C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Nonlinear Direct Power Controller for a Three-Phase Grid-Connected Inverter with Online Parameter Update for PV Application

This work proposes a nonlinear direct power controller for a three-phase grid-connected inverter for photovoltaic application. Grid-connected converters for solar applications require advanced control architectures to ensure optimal operation and extraction of maximum power from the photovoltaic arrays. Therefore, to ensure this, a nonlinear power controller architecture has been proposed to extract the maximum power from the solar arrays and to achieve the most optimal operation. To further improve the performance, a parameter update scheme has been utilized which is based on model reference adaptive system. The latter helps to accomplish not only good dynamic response but also excellent tracking performance. The overall control come estimation architecture is verified based on computer simulations via MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS domain and various important case study results are presented.

direct power control↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources

Increased penetration of power electronics interfaced Distributed Energy Resources (DER) like PV, electric vehicle and battery storage in the distribution system (both in numbers and sizes) may cause bi-directional power flows under normal operation. In addition, they contribute low fault current under short circuit conditions. These two changes can impact the proper operation of legacy protection systems. This can add additional challenges during weak grid and islanded operation. In this research, traveling wave (high frequency) signature based protection scheme is proposed for future distribution systems. Simulations are performed under different transient scenarios to provide insight into the high frequency signatures to show the traveling wave behavior. Finally, this paper discusses the importance of sensing and digital processing requirements for traveling-wave protection in distribution system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗