SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction algorithms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1999

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers and air traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control imctions.This paper describes a conflict detection and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection and resolution method.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling algorithm execution time on processor arrays

An approach to modelling the execution time of algorithms on parallel arrays is presented. This time is expressed as a function of the number of processors and system parameters. The resulting model has been applied to a parallel implementation of the conjugate-gradient algorithm on NASA's FEM. Results of experiments performed to compare the model predictions against actual behavior show that the floating-point arithmetic, communication, and synchronization components of the parallel algorithm execution time were correctly modelled. The results also show that the overhead caused by the interaction of the system software and the actual parallel hardware must be reflected in the model parameters. The model has been used to predict the performance of the conjugate gradient algorithm on a given problem as the number of processors and machine characteristics varied.

Adams, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and data science, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Core Size↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Feature Extraction Based on Decision Boundaries

In this paper, a novel approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. We note that feature extraction is equivalent to retaining informative features or eliminating redundant features; thus, the terms 'discriminantly information feature' and 'discriminantly redundant feature' are first defined relative to feature extraction for classification. Next, it is shown how discriminantly redundant features and discriminantly informative features are related to decision boundaries. A novel characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that usually only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is therefore introduced. Next, a procedure to extract discriminantly informative features based on a decision boundary is proposed. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: (1) It predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and (2) it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal class means or equal class covariances as some previous algorithms do. Experiments show that the performance of the proposed algorithm compares favorably with those of previous algorithms.

Lee, Chulhee↗

NASA NTRS2006

Establishment and Implementation of a Close Approach Evaluation and Avoidance Process for Earth Observing System Missions

In the fall of 2004, the Earth Science Mission Operations Project tasked the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSPC) Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch with establishment of a process to protect the high-value Earth Observing System (EOS) missions (Terra, Aqua, and Aura) from close approaches with space debris and other orbiting objects. An agreement between GSFC and the United States Strategic Command was put in place so that close approach predictions would be routinely generated. This paper describes the ESMO conjunction assessment process for the EOS satellites. Process details, including tools and algorithms developed, are discussed. Particular details for a predicted close approach between Terra and a piece of space debris that resulted in the execution of a debris avoidance maneuver are included. This close approach example is described in detail fiom the first screening identification through execution of the mitigation maneuver to illustrate both the process and lessons learned fiom its implementation.

Newman, Lauri↗

NASA NTRS2016

Model-Based Fatigue Prognosis of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates Exhibiting Concurrent Damage Mechanisms

Prognostics of large composite structures is a topic of increasing interest in the field of structural health monitoring for aerospace, civil, and mechanical systems. Along with recent advancements in real-time structural health data acquisition and processing for damage detection and characterization, model-based stochastic methods for life prediction are showing promising results in the literature. Among various model-based approaches, particle-filtering algorithms are particularly capable in coping with uncertainties associated with the process. These include uncertainties about information on the damage extent and the inherent uncertainties of the damage propagation process. Some efforts have shown successful applications of particle filtering-based frameworks for predicting the matrix crack evolution and structural stiffness degradation caused by repetitive fatigue loads. Effects of other damage modes such as delamination, however, are not incorporated in these works. It is well established that delamination and matrix cracks not only co-exist in most laminate structures during the fatigue degradation process but also affect each other's progression. Furthermore, delamination significantly alters the stress-state in the laminates and accelerates the material degradation leading to catastrophic failure. Therefore, the work presented herein proposes a particle filtering-based framework for predicting a structure's remaining useful life with consideration of multiple co-existing damage-mechanisms. The framework uses an energy-based model from the composite modeling literature. The multiple damage-mode model has been shown to suitably estimate the energy release rate of cross-ply laminates as affected by matrix cracks and delamination modes. The model is also able to estimate the reduction in stiffness of the damaged laminate. This information is then used in the algorithms for life prediction capabilities. First, a brief summary of the energy-based damage model is provided. Then, the paper describes how the model is embedded within the prognostic framework and how the prognostics performance is assessed using observations from run-to-failure experiments

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1991

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Manning, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Vibration in Planetary Gear Systems with Unequal Planet Stiffnesses

An algorithm suitable for a minicomputer was developed for finding the natural frequencies and mode shapes of a planetary gear system which has unequal stiffnesses between the Sun/planet and planet/ring gear meshes. Mode shapes are represented in the form of graphical computer output that illustrates the lateral and rotational motion of the three coaxial gears and the planet gears. This procedure permits the analysis of gear trains utilizing nonuniform mesh conditions and user specified masses, stiffnesses, and boundary conditions. Numerical integration of the equations of motion for planetary gear systems indicates that this algorithm offers an efficient means of predicting operating speeds which may result in high dynamic tooth loads.

Frater, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Dynamic delamination buckling in composite laminates under impact loading: Computational simulation

A unique dynamic delamination buckling and delamination propagation analysis capability has been developed and incorporated into a finite element computer program. This capability consists of the following: (1) a modification of the direct time integration solution sequence which provides a new analysis algorithm that can be used to predict delamination buckling in a laminate subjected to dynamic loading, and (2) a new method of modeling the composite laminate using plate bending elements and multipoint constraints. This computer program is used to predict both impact induced buckling in composite laminates with initial delaminations and the strain energy release rate due to extension of the delamination. It is shown that delaminations near the outer surface of a laminate are susceptible to local buckling and buckling-induced delamination propagation when the laminate is subjected to transverse impact loading. The capability now exists to predict the time at which the onset of dynamic delamination buckling occurs, the dynamic buckling mode shape, and the dynamic delamination strain energy release rate.

Grady, Joseph E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

Baum, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Dynamic delamination buckling in composite laminates under impact loading - Computational simulation

Grady, Joseph E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Simulation Test Of Descent Advisor

Report describes piloted-simulation test of Descent Advisor (DA), subsystem of larger automation system being developed to assist human air-traffic controllers and pilots. Focuses on results of piloted simulation, in which airline crews executed controller-issued descent advisories along standard curved-path arrival routes. Crews able to achieve arrival-time precision of plus or minus 20 seconds at metering fix. Analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in further enhancements of algorithm to increase accuracies of its predicted trajectories. Evaluations by pilots indicate general support for DA concept and provide specific recommendations for improvement.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Real-time motion tracking of three-dimensional objects

The problem in which the three-dimensional motion of an object corresponding to a known polyhedral model is to be computed using only the motion of edge features in a continuous stream of two-dimensional images is considered. Advantage is taken of the spatiotemporal density of the input signal and the limitations of long-range trajectory-prediction methods are avoided. Two parallel algorithms which use feature-based, short-range (spatiotemporally local) motion processes to achieve real-time tracking of modeled objects are presented. Both algorithms have been implemented and tested on a tightly coupled multiprocessor system consisting of an Aspex Pipe for low-level, image-feature computations and a Sequent Symmetry for high-level, model-based computations. An analysis is given of the actual performance limits of each method using the current hardware configuration.

Verghese, Gilbert↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multispectral Image Processing for Plants

The development of a machine vision system to monitor plant growth and health is one of three essential steps towards establishing an intelligent system capable of accurately assessing the state of a controlled ecological life support system for long-term space travel. Besides a network of sensors, simulators are needed to predict plant features, and artificial intelligence algorithms are needed to determine the state of a plant based life support system. Multispectral machine vision and image processing can be used to sense plant features, including health and nutritional status.

Miles, Gaines E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2006

Airborne Turbulence Detection System Certification Tool Set

A methodology and a corresponding set of simulation tools for testing and evaluating turbulence detection sensors has been presented. The tool set is available to industry and the FAA for certification of radar based airborne turbulence detection systems. The tool set consists of simulated data sets representing convectively induced turbulence, an airborne radar simulation system, hazard tables to convert the radar observable to an aircraft load, documentation, a hazard metric "truth" algorithm, and criteria for scoring the predictions. Analysis indicates that flight test data supports spatial buffers for scoring detections. Also, flight data and demonstrations with the tool set suggest the need for a magnitude buffer.

Hamilton, David W.↗