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NASA NTRS2021

Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0

The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global constituent prediction system from NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA’s broad range of space-based and in-situ observation sand to support flight campaign planning, support of satellite observations, and air quality research. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric constituents including ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The chemistry module integrated in GEOS-CF is identical to the offline GEOS-Chem model and readily benefits from the innovations provided by the GEOS-Chem community.Evaluation of GEOS-CF against satellite, ozone sonde and surface observations show realistic simulated concentrations of O3, NO2, and CO, with normalized mean biases of -0.1 to -0.3, normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) between 0.1-0.4, and correlations between 0.3-0.8. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the successful representation of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions, yet also highlight current limitations, such as an over prediction of summertime ozone over the Southeast United States. GEOS-CFv1.0 generally overestimates aerosols by 20-50% due to known issues in GEOS-Chem v12.0.1 that have been addressed in later versions.The 5-day hourly forecasts have skill scores comparable to the analysis. Model skills can be improved significantly by applying a bias-correction to the surface model output using a machine-learning approach.

GEOS-CF↗

NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Gauge-Based Precipitation Corrections on the Skill of SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Estimates

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides observations of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations at a resolution of ~40 km globally every 2-3 days. These observations are routinely assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model to generate the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface fluxes (among others) at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment land surface model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with 0.25Â°, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) "forward-processing" product. Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, the GEOS precipitation forcing is corrected using the Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, 0.5Â°, daily precipitation product.Soil moisture estimates from the L4_SM product were previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that do not benefit from the assimilation of Tb observations, thereby demonstrating the value of assimilating SMAP observations for soil moisture estimation. In this presentation, we further isolate the contribution of the gauge-based precipitation corrections to the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates. Specifically, we compare the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture to that of separate model-only and assimilation estimates obtained without the benefit of the gauge-based precipitation corrections.Preliminary results suggest that the soil moisture skill added by the CPCU-based precipitation corrections primarily depends on the quality of the CPCU precipitation product and is greatest in regions where the CPCU gauge network is dense and reliable. Conversely, in regions where the CPCU product is known to be of poor quality, for example in central Australia, the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations provides the most benefit. The presentation will provide an in-depth evaluation of the soil moisture skill of the model-only and assimilation estimates vs. independent in situ and satellite measurements.

Reichle, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS2020

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Enhancement of Directional Ambiguity Removal Skill in Scatterometer Data Processing Using Planetary Boundary Layer Models

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) models are utilized to enhance directional ambiguity removal skill in scatterometer data processing. The ambiguity in wind direction retrieved from scatterometer measurements is removed with the aid of physical directional information obtained from PBL models. This technique is based on the observation that sea level pressure is scalar and its field is more coherent than the corresponding wind. An initial wind field obtained from the scatterometer measurements is used to derive a pressure field with a PBL model. After filtering small-scale noise in the derived pressure field, a wind field is generated with an inverted PBL model. This derived wind information is then used to remove wind vector ambiguities in the scatterometer data. It is found that the ambiguity removal skill can be improved when the new technique is used properly in conjunction with the median filter being used for scatterometer wind dealiasing at JPL. The new technique is applied to regions of cyclone systems which are important for accurate weather prediction but where the errors of ambiguity removal are often large.

Kim, Young-Joon↗

NASA NTRS2021

Earth system modeling: can we stay ahead of what's actually happening?

Over the last forty years, Earth System Models have become more and more comprehensive and detailed. They have assimilated previously independent modeling efforts in ocean circulation, atmospheric composition, the stratosphere, land surface, and the cryosphere, and are today demonstrably more skillful than earlier efforts. Yet the structural uncertainty in the latest model projections is actually increasing. Meanwhile, impacts of climate change on, for instance, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level, appear to be increasing faster than we have been able to predict. I will address some of the current issues at the bleeding edges of model development and the continuing importance of model evaluation.

Gavin A Schmidt↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Development of SCR Aircraft takeoff and landing procedures for community noise abatement and their impact on flight safety

Piloted simulator studies to determine takeoff and landing procedures for a supersonic cruise transport concept that result in predicted community noise levels which meet current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standards are discussed. The results indicate that with the use of advanced procedures, the subject simulated aircraft meets the FAA traded noise levels during takeoff and landing utilizing average flight crew skills. The advanced takeoff procedures developed involved violating three of the current Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) noise test conditions. These were: (1) thrust cutbacks at altitudes below 214 meters (700 ft); (2) thrust cutback level below those presently allowed; and (3) configuration change, other than raising the landing gear. It was not necessary to violate any FAR noise test conditions during landing approach. It was determined that the advanced procedures developed do not compromise flight safety. Automation of some of the aircraft functions reduced pilot workload, and the development of a simple head-up display to assist in the takeoff flight mode proved to be adequate.

Grantham, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Educational Experiences of Embry-Riddle Students through NASA Research Collaboration

NASA's educational. programs benefit students and faculty while increasing the overall productivity of the organization. The NASA Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) awards fellowships for graduate study leading to both masters and doctoral degrees in several technical fields. GSRP participants have the option to utilize NASA Centers andlor university research facilities. In addition, GSRP students can serve as mentors for undergrad students to provide a truly unique learning experience. NASA's Cooperative Education Program allows undergraduate students the chance to gain "real-world" work experience in the field. It also gives NASA a no risk capability to evaluate the true performance of a prospective new hire without relying solely on a "paper resume" while providing the students with a greater hiring potential upon graduation, at NASA or elsewhere. University faculty can also benefit by participating in the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP). This program gives the faculty an opportunity to work with NASA peers. The Mission Analysis Branch of the Expendable Launch Vehicles Division at NASA Kennedy Space Center has utilized these two programs with students from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) to conduct research in modeling and developing a parameter estimation method for spacecraft fuel slosh using simple pendulum analogs. Simple pendulum models are used to understand complicated spacecraft fuel slosh behavior. A robust parameter estimation process will help to identif' the parameters that will predict the response fairly accurately during the initial stages of design. These programs provide students with a unique opportunity to work on "real-world" aerospace problems, like spacecraft fuel slosh,. This in turn reinforces their problem solving abilities and their communication skills such as interviewing, resume writing, technical writing, and presentation. Faculty benefits by applying what they have learned to the classroom. Through university collaborations with NASA and industry help students to acquire skills that are vital for their success upon entering the workforce.

Schlee, Keith↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavordsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for "Bioaerosols are the dominant source of warm-temperature immersion-mode INPs and drive uncertainties in INP predictability

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of atmospheric aerosol that can initiate primary ice formation and thus trigger cloud glaciation. The re is a significant gap between our ability to measure INPs and to predict their concentrations and variability in large-scale weather and climate models. Accurate simulation of I NPs requires simulation of their major particle sources, as well as representative parameterizations of IN efficiency. Thus, there is a need for measurements of INP concentrations , delineated by particle type, to validate and improve model prediction of INP concentrations. Here we present a novel method for speciating INP concentrations into the relative c ontributions from dust, sea spray aerosol (SSA), and bioaerosol using single particle measurements. In a field campaign at Bodega Bay (coastal California), we find that bioaerosol s were the primary source of INPs between -12 and -20 ?C, while dust was a relatively minor source and SSA did not contribute significantly. We show that recent INP parameterizati ons for dust and SSA accurately predict ambient INP concentrations for these particle types. Finally, we use the speciated INP concentrations to evaluate the simulation of INPs at Bodega Bay, using a Lagrangian approach to connect the locally-observed aerosol with regionally-widespread emissions parameterizations. We find that we can skillfully simulate du st and SSA INPs, but not bioaerosol INPs. This points to a need for additional research to identify the major factors controlling the emissions and INP efficiency of bioaerosol IN Ps in order to develop improved parameterizations and enable their improved representation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An ensemble data assimilation modeling system for operational outdoor microalgae growth forecasting

Microalgae have received increasing attention as a potential feedstock for biofuel or biobased products. Forecasting the microalgae growth is beneficial for managers in planning pond operations and harvesting decisions. This study proposed a biomass forecasting system comprised of the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth Model (BGM), the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in Two Dimensions (MASS2), ensemble data assimilation (DA), and numerical weather prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble meteorological forecasts. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of ensemble DA to improve both BGM and MASS2 model initial conditions with the assimilation of biomass and water temperature measurements and consequently improve short-term biomass forecasting skills. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed integrated biomass forecasting system, with an application undertaken in pseudo-real-time in three outdoor ponds cultured with Chlorella sorokiniana in Delhi, California, United States. Results from all three case studies demonstrate that the biomass forecasting system improved the short-term (i.e., 7-day) biomass forecasting skills by about 60% on average, comparing to forecasts without using the ensemble DA method. Given the satisfactory performances achieved in this study, it is probable that the integrated BGM-MASS2-DA forecasting system can be used operationally to inform managers in making pond operation and harvesting planning decisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

PPPL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (Project Final Reports, FY2018 - FY2020)

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) is a collaborative national center for fusion energy science, basic sciences, and advanced technology. The Laboratory has three major missions: (1) to develop the scientific knowledge and advanced engineering to enable fusion to power the U.S. and the world; (2) to advance the science of nanoscale fabrication for technologies of tomorrow; and (3) to further the development of the scientific understanding of the plasma universe from laboratory to astrophysical scales. PPPL’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program supports and encourages creativity and innovation and contributes to its long-term viability. New scientific and technical research areas emerge and are nurtured through the program. Furthermore, new capabilities are developed to enable the Laboratory to meet its and DOE’s missions. The program is used to systematically diversify the Laboratory’s programs and mission. In the last few years, the program has started projects in nanomaterial synthesis, microelectronics, advanced x-ray spectroscopy, high-energy-density physics, superconducting magnet technology, machine learning and artificial intelligence, 3D magnetic fields to optimize fusion plasmas, integration of permanent magnets with simple high-field magnets to reduce the cost of producing complex 3D magnetic fields, advanced computational methods for predictive understanding and control of fusion plasma, development of quantum computing algorithms for plasma physics, liquid metal plasma-facing components for fusion reactors, virtual engineering, and plasma-based space propulsion. The program is also the vehicle to recruit and train talented scientists and engineers with the new skills needed to perform the Laboratory’s mission. Many of the new hires through the program go on to become world-class scientists and engineers in their fields. This report provides descriptions and accomplishments of those LDRD projects that were completed during fiscal years 2018 through 2020.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗