Results for “Predictive science” — Page 26

NASA NTRS2011

GPM Mission Overview

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid/snow precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of microwave radiometers that include operational humidity sounders over land, (3) inter-calibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 degree non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a calibration reference to improve precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The Core Observatory will carry a KulKa-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The combined use ofDPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. As a science mission with integrated application goals, GPM is designed to (1) advance precipitation measurement capability from space through combined use of active and passive microwave sensors, (2) advance the knowledge of the global water/energy cycle and freshwater availability through better description of the space-time variability of global precipitation, and (3) improve weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of instantaneous precipitation rates and time-integrated rainfall accumulation. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Wood, Eric F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Future possibilities in objective analysis and data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics

The role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere from incomplete and noisy data is reviewed. Objective analysis represents an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and related sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, long range forecasting, and upper ocean dynamics. Possibilities offered by judicious data assimilation in understanding barotropic adjustment, a phenomenon that appears to play a crucial role in atmospheric behavior on the scale of weeks to months, and hence in long range forecasting are addressed.

Ghil, M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

The central theme of this review article is the role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere and of the ocean from incomplete and noisy data. Objective analysis and inverse methods represent an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Four-dimensional data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric or oceanic model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, medium and long-range forecasting, and upper-ocean dynamics.

Ghil, M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulation of a data archival and distribution system at GSFC

A version-0 of a Data Archive and Distribution System (DADS) is being developed at GSFC to support existing and pre-EOS Earth science datasets and test Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) concepts. The performance of DADS is predicted using a discrete event simulation model. The goals of the simulation were to estimate the amount of disk space needed and the time required to fulfill the DADS requirements for ingestion (14 GB/day) and distribution (48 GB/day). The model has demonstrated that 4 mm and 8 mm stackers can play a critical role in improving the performance of the DADS, since it takes, on average, 3 minutes to manually mount/dismount tapes compared to less than a minute with stackers. With two 4 mm stackers and two 8 mm stackers, and a single operator per shift, the DADS requirements can be met within 16 hours using a total of 9 GB of disk space. When the DADS has no stacker, and the DADS depends entirely on operators to handle the distribution tapes, the simulation has shown that the DADS requirements can still be met within 16 hours, but a minimum of 4 operators per shift were required. The compression/decompression of data sets is very CPU intensive, and relatively slow when performed in software, thereby contributing to an increase in the amount of disk space needed.

Bedet, Jean-Jacques↗

NASA NTRS2003

Global Multispectral Cloud Retrievals from MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18,1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4,2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. We will describe the various cloud properties being analyzed on a global basis from both Terra and Aqua, and will show characteristics of cloud optical and microphysical properties as a function of latitude for land and ocean separately, and contrast the statistical properties of similar cloud types in various parts of the world.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Global Multispectral Cloud Retrievals from MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18,1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4,2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. We will describe the various cloud properties being analyzed on a global basis from both Terra and Aqua, and will show characteristics of cloud optical and microphysical properties as a function of latitude for land and ocean separately, and contrast the statistical properties of similar cloud types in various parts of the world.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Multi-Spectral Cloud Retrievals from Moderate Image Spectrometer (MODIS)

MODIS observations from the NASA EOS Terra spacecraft (1030 local time equatorial sun-synchronous crossing) launched in December 1999 have provided a unique set of Earth observation data. With the launch of the NASA EOS Aqua spacecraft (1330 local time crossing! in May 2002: two MODIS daytime (sunlit) and nighttime observations are now available in a 24-hour period allowing some measure of diurnal variability. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate modeling, climate change studies, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. An overview of the instrument and cloud algorithms will be presented along with various examples, including an initial analysis of several operational global gridded (Level-3) cloud products from the two platforms. Statistics of cloud optical and microphysical properties as a function of latitude for land and Ocean regions will be shown. Current algorithm research efforts will also be discussed.

Platnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Tropospheric Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18,1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. We will describe the various cloud properties being analyzed on a global basis from both Terra and Aqua. These include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

RAD750 SBC Usage for the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Program

This presentation focuses on the first space weather research mission in the Living with a Star (LWS) Program. The science objective of the mission is to understand the solar variations that influence life on Earth. The mission is developed and managed by NASA/GSFC with a launch date in 2008 on a five-year mission using a geosynchronous inclined orbit. Involved with the mission are three science instruments: a helloseisic and magnetic imagery (HMI), extreme ultraviolet variability experiment (EVE), and solar helispheric activity research prediction program (SHARPP). 6U qualification Vib test has been completed with successful results (no interrupts detected at 1 nanosecond). Other test result to be reported at workshop.

Li, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2005

Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

Stohlgren, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2006

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Clouds as Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18,1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24,2000 for Terra and June 24,2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. Over the last year, extensive improvements and enhancements in the global cloud products have been implemented, and reprocessing of all MODIS data on Terra has commenced since first light in February 2000. In the cloud mask algorithm, the most extensive improvements were in distinguishing clouds at nighttime, including the challenging polar darkness regions of the world. Additional improvements have been made to properly distinguish sunglint from clouds in the tropical ocean regions, and to improve the identification of clouds from snow during daytime in Polar Regions. We will show global monthly mean cloud fraction for both Terra and Aqua, and show how similar the global daytime cloud fraction is from these morning and afternoon orbits, respectively. We will also show the zonal distribution of cloud fraction over land and ocean regions for both Terra and Aqua, and show the time series of global cloud fraction from July 2002 through June 2006.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Herschel ATLAS

The Herschel ATLAS is the largest open-time key project that will be carried out on the Herschel Space Observatory. It will survey 570 sq deg of the extragalactic sky, 4 times larger than all the other Herschel extragalactic surveys combined, in five far-infrared and submillimeter bands. We describe the survey, the complementary multiwavelength data sets that will be combined with the Herschel data, and the six major science programs we are undertaking. Using new models based on a previous submillimeter survey of galaxies, we present predictions of the properties of the ATLAS sources in other wave bands.

Eales, S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR

A room temperature sapphire acoustics resonator incorporated into an oscillator represents a possible opportunity to improve on quartz ultrastable oscillator (USO) performance, which has been a staple for NASA missions since the inception of spaceflight. Where quartz technology is very mature and shows a performance improvement of perhaps 1 dB/decade, these sapphire acoustic resonators when integrated with matured quartz electronics could achieve a frequency stability improvement of 10 dB or more. As quartz oscillators are an essential element of nearly all types of frequency standards and reference systems, the success of MSAR would advance the development of frequency standards and systems for both groundbased and flight-based projects. Current quartz oscillator technology is limited by quartz mechanical Q. With a possible improvement of more than x 10 Q with sapphire acoustic modes, the stability limit of current quartz oscillators may be improved tenfold, to 10(exp -14) at 1 second. The electromagnetic modes of sapphire that were previously developed at JPL require cryogenic temperatures to achieve the high Q levels needed to achieve this stability level. However sapphire fs acoustic modes, which have not been used before in a high-stability oscillator, indicate the required Q values (as high as Q = 10(exp 8)) may be achieved at room temperature in the kHz range. Even though sapphire is not piezoelectric, such a high Q should allow electrostatic excitation of the acoustic modes with a combination of DC and AC voltages across a small sapphire disk (approximately equal to l mm thick). The first evaluations under this task will test predictions of an estimated input impedance of 10 kilohms at Q = 10(exp 8), and explore the Q values that can be realized in a smaller resonator, which has not been previously tested for acoustic modes. This initial Q measurement and excitation demonstration can be viewed similar to a transducer converting electrical energy to mechanical energy and back. Such an electrostatic tweeter type excitation of a mechanical resonator will be tested at 5 MHz. Finite element calculation will be applied to resonator design for the desired resonator frequency and optimum configuration. The experiment consists of the sapphire resonator sandwiched between parallel electrodes. A DC+AC voltage can be applied to generate a force to act on a sapphire resonator. With the frequency of the AC voltage tuned to the sapphire resonator frequency, a resonant condition occurs and the sapphire Q can be measured with a high-frequency impedance analyzer. To achieve high Q values, many experimental factors such as vacuum seal, gas damping effects, charge buildup on the sapphire surface, heat dissipation, sapphire anchoring, and the sapphire mounting configuration will need attention. The effects of these parameters will be calculated and folded into the resonator design. It is envisioned that the initial test configuration would allow for movable electrodes to check gap spacing dependency and verify the input impedance prediction. Quartz oscillators are key components in nearly all ground- and space-based communication, tracking, and radio science applications. They play a key role as local oscillators for atomic frequency standards and serve as flywheel oscillators or to improve phase noise in high performance frequency and timing distribution systems. With ultra-stable performance from one to three seconds, an Earth-orbit or moon-based MSAR can enhance available performance options for spacecraft due to elimination of atmospheric path degradation.

Wang, Rabi T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Tropospheric Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for cloud masking and the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties has been developed by members of the MODIS atmosphere science team. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. We will describe the various cloud properties being analyzed on a global basis from both Terra and Aqua. These include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observation of Hydrological Processes Using Remote Sensing: Volume 2: The Science of Hydrology - Chapter 2.14

Improving water management can make a significant contribution to achieving most of the Millennium Development Goals established by the UN General Assembly in 2000, especially those related to poverty, hunger, and major diseases. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002 recognized this need. Water and sanitation in particular received great attention from the Summit. The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation recommended to improve water resources management and scientific understanding of the water cycle through joint cooperation and research. For this purpose, it is recommended to promote knowledge sharing, provide capacity building, and facilitate the transfer of technology including remote-sensing (RS) and satellite technologies, especially to developing countries and countries with economies in transition, and to support these countries in their efforts to monitor and assess the quantity and quality of water resources, for example, by establishing and/or further developing national monitoring networks and water resources databases and by developing relevant national indicators. The Johannesburg Plan also adopted integrated water resources management as the overarching concept in addressing and solving water-related issues. As a result of the commitments made in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, several global and regional initiatives have emerged. Current international initiatives such as the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission and the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year Implementation Plan, have all identified Earth observation (EO) of the water cycle as the key in helping to solve the world s water problems. The availability of spatial information on water quantity and quality will also enable closure of the water budget at river basin and continental scales to the point where effective water management is essential (e.g., as requested by the European Union s Water Framework Directive (WFD), as well as national policies). Geo-information science and EO are vital in achieving a better understanding of the water cycle and better monitoring, analysis, prediction, and management of the world s water resources. The major components of the water cycle of the Earth system and their possible observations are presented. Such observations are essential to understand the global water cycle and its variability, both spatially and temporally, and can only be achieved consistently by means of EOs. Additionally, such observations are essential to advance our understanding of coupling between the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic branches of the water cycle, and how this coupling may influence climate variability and predictability. Water resources management directly interferes with the natural water cycle in the forms of building dams, reservoirs, water transfer systems, and irrigation systems that divert and redistribute part of the water storages and fluxes on land. The water cycle is mainly driven and coupled to the energy cycle in terms of phase changes of water (changes among liquid, water vapor, and solid phases) and transport of water by winds in addition to gravity and diffusion processes. The water-cycle components can be observed with in situ sensors as well as airborne and satellite sensors in terms of radiative quantities. Processing and conversion of these radiative signals are necessary to retrieve the water-cycle components.

Wilder, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrating Kinetic Effects into Global Models for Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is the most striking example of how the coupling between global and kinetic scales can lead to fast energy release. Explosive solar activity, such as coronal mass ejections and flares for example, is widely believed to be due to the release of magnetic energy stored on global scales by magnetic reconnection operating on kinetic scales. Understanding how processes couple across spatial scales is one of the most difficult challenges in all of physics, and is undoubtedly the main obstacle to developing predictive models for the Sun's activity. Consequently, the NASA Living With a Star Program selected a Focused Science Team to attack the problem of cross-scale coupling in reconnection. In this talk I will present some of the results of the Team and review our latest theories and methods for modeling the global-local coupling in solar reconnection.

Antiochos, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Neural Network Machine Learning and Dimension Reduction for Data Visualization

Neural network machine learning in computer science is a continuously developing field of study. Although neural network models have been developed which can accurately predict a numeric value or nominal classification, a general purpose method for constructing neural network architecture has yet to be developed. Computer scientists are often forced to rely on a trial-and-error process of developing and improving accurate neural network models. In many cases, models are constructed from a large number of input parameters. Understanding which input parameters have the greatest impact on the prediction of the model is often difficult to surmise, especially when the number of input variables is very high. This challenge is often labeled the "curse of dimensionality" in scientific fields. However, techniques exist for reducing the dimensionality of problems to just two dimensions. Once a problem's dimensions have been mapped to two dimensions, it can be easily plotted and understood by humans. The ability to visualize a multi-dimensional dataset can provide a means of identifying which input variables have the highest effect on determining a nominal or numeric output. Identifying these variables can provide a better means of training neural network models; models can be more easily and quickly trained using only input variables which appear to affect the outcome variable. The purpose of this project is to explore varying means of training neural networks and to utilize dimensional reduction for visualizing and understanding complex datasets.

Liles, Charles A.↗