Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure Validation of Graph Theory Model-Derived Cooling Rates in the Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing of ER70S-6 Steel

Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) enables high-rate fabrication of large metallic components, but spatial variations in thermal history can lead to microstructural heterogeneity that requires efficient process models to evaluate. This study evaluates whether cooling rates extracted from a graph theory model (GTM)-based thermal simulation are consistent with the microstructural evolution observed in an ER70S-6 WAAM wall. Thermal histories from the model were analyzed at selected build heights, and cooling rates were extracted from the final thermal excursion through the austenite phase field. Microstructures at corresponding locations were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) to quantify grain size distributions, and pearlite interlamellar spacing was used as an additional indicator of cooling behavior. The modeled cooling rates were highest near the substrate and generally decreased with build height, consistent with the observed reduction in the fine grain fraction and the progressive shift in the grain size distribution as build height increased. Pearlite spacing trends also supported the modeled cooling rate variation. These results indicate that GTM-derived thermal histories can be post-processed into metallurgically meaningful cooling rate estimates for WAAM steel builds and linked to dataset specific empirical grain size distribution relationships for process–thermal history–microstructure assessment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

BETO 2021 Peer Review - FCIC Task 5 - Preprocessing

In the study of feedstock variability, this presentation specifically looks at preprocessing processes that will created well-defined and homogenous feedstock from variable biomass resources, in the quest to produce homogeneous intermediates that will be converted into market-ready products. The objective of this stage of the project is to develop science-based design and operation principles informed by TEA/LCA that result in predictable, reliable, and scalable performance of preprocessing unit operations (comminution, fractionation, deconstruction, and real-time imaging).

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of scalable design optimization parameters for bi-component protective systems

Bi-component protection-systems need to withstand a variety of extreme loading conditions such as high-velocity projectile impact to shock and blast mitigation. The large number of parameters at each stage of bi-component protection system design process results in a near-infinite number of possible variables for optimization. The aim of this project is to identify the scaling laws linking material and geometric scales of the problem to the final impact performance, further including the effects of wave propagation/interaction and inter-component bonding. Specifically, the impact dynamics for different optimal projectile/target density ratios and relative component mass fractions are quantified for bonded ceramic/titanium alloy systems. The impact behavior such as wave mechanics and damage propagation within the target system is characterized and quantified via digital image correlation or via x-ray phase-contrast imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Errant Beam Prognostics with Machine Leaning at SNS Accelerator

Particle Accelerators are complex machine with many pieces of equipment running in synchronization to deliver required beam. However, faults in particle accelerators reduce the availability of the beam for experiments affecting the overall science output. To avoid these faults, we apply anomaly detection techniques to predict any unusual behavior and perform preemptive actions to improve the total availability. Many researchers have adopted semi-supervised Machine Learning (ML) methods such as auto-encoders and variational auto-encoders for such tasks. However, supervised ML techniques designed for similarity learning such as Siamese Neural Network (SNN) can outperform semi-supervised or unsupervised methods for anomaly prediction. One of the challenges associated with application of ML models to particle accelerators is the variability in observed data over time due to system configuration changes. We employ conditional models such as Conditional Siamese Neural Networks (CSNN), and Conditional-VAE (CVAE) to learn the variability in the data by using beam configuration parameters as conditional input. We apply these models for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source accelerator under different system configurations and compare their performance. We demonstrate that CSNN outperforms CVAE in our application. This talk will present the data source, collection, analysis, data-preparation, model development, hyper-parameter studies and the results.

Rajput, Kishansingh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Correlating the Unresolved Gamma-Ray Background with Cosmic Large-Scale Structure from DESI: Implications for Astrophysics and Dark Matter

The unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB) is a diffuse gamma-ray emission arising from numerous extragalactic sources below the detection threshold and is an important component of the gamma-ray sky. Studying the UGRB is crucial for understanding high-energy astrophysical processes in the universe and for probing fundamental physics, such as the nature of dark matter. In this work, we forecast the cross-correlation between the UGRB and galaxy catalogs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. First, we study the expected astrophysical contributions to the UGRB and their cross-correlation with DESI spectroscopic galaxies. Our calculations show that the cross-correlation signal-to-noise ratio is expected to be significant, with the highest value predicted to be 20.6 for DESI luminous red galaxies due to a higher predicted overlap in the redshift distribution with the UGRB. We consider two science cases that the UGRB-spectroscopic galaxies cross-correlation can be applied to: 1) measuring the UGRB flux as a function of redshift, achieving a precision of 10% in some redshift bins, and 2) searching for annihilating dark matter potentially up to a mass of about 300~GeV, three times higher than the currently strongest constraints. This work underscores the importance of cross correlating the UGRB with cosmic large-scale structure tracers and highlights the multiwavelength approaches to advancing our understanding of high-energy astrophysical phenomena and fundamental physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting metal-binding proteins and structures through integration of evolutionary-scale and physics-based modeling

Metals are essential elements in all living organisms, binding to approximately 50% of proteins. They serve to stabilize proteins, catalyze reactions, regulate activities, and fulfill various physiological and pathological functions. While there have been many advancements in determining the structures of protein-metal complexes, numerous metal-binding proteins still need to be identified through computational methods and validated through experiments. Here, to address this need, we have developed the ESMBind workflow, which combines evolutionary scale modeling (ESM) for metal-binding prediction and physics-based protein-metal modeling. Our approach utilizes the ESM-2 and ESM-IF models to predict metal-binding probability at the residue level. In addition, we have designed a metal-placement method and energy minimization technique to generate detailed 3D structures of protein-metal complexes. Our workflow outperforms other models in terms of residue and 3D-level predictions. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we applied the workflow to 142 uncharacterized fungal pathogen proteins and predicted metal-binding proteins involved in fungal infection and virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data

The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

DeepComplex: A Web Server of Predicting Protein Complex Structures by Deep Learning Inter-chain Contact Prediction and Distance-Based Modelling

Proteins interact to form complexes. Predicting the quaternary structure of protein complexes is useful for protein function analysis, protein engineering, and drug design. However, few user-friendly tools leveraging the latest deep learning technology for inter-chain contact prediction and the distance-based modelling to predict protein quaternary structures are available. To address this gap, we develop DeepComplex, a web server for predicting structures of dimeric protein complexes. It uses deep learning to predict inter-chain contacts in a homodimer or heterodimer. The predicted contacts are then used to construct a quaternary structure of the dimer by the distance-based modelling, which can be interactively viewed and analysed. The web server is freely accessible and requires no registration. It can be easily used by providing a job name and an email address along with the tertiary structure for one chain of a homodimer or two chains of a heterodimer. The output webpage provides the multiple sequence alignment, predicted inter-chain residue-residue contact map, and predicted quaternary structure of the dimer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Radiation-Induced Fate of Fission Product Iodine in Molten Salts

Understand and Predict Radiation-Induced Iodine Speciation, Chemistry, and Transport in High-Temperature Molten Salts Award Number: DE-AC07-05ID1451 Gregory P. Holmbeck (Gregory.Holmbeck@inl.gov), Center for Radiation Chemistry Research, Idaho National Laboratory, 1955 N. Fremont Avenue Idaho Falls, ID, 83415, USA. Project Scope The goal of this Chemical and Materials Sciences to Advance Clean Energy Technologies and Low-Carbon Manufacturing project is to understand and predict the radiation-induced speciation, chemistry, and transport of fission product iodine in the triumvirate extremes of high-temperature, ionizing radiation, and corrosive molten salts. This missing fundamental information is critical for the accelerated development and deployment of safe, clean nuclear energy based on molten salt reactor (MSR) and pyrochemical reprocessing technologies. The central hypothesis driving this research is, the radiation-induced conversion of iodide will yield an extensive suite of transient and steady-state iodine radiolysis products that will alter the bulk chemical and physical properties of the irradiated molten salt system—the speciation, distribution, and chemical transport of which will be dictated by the composition and the availability of multivalent metal cations and metal alloy interfaces. To test this hypothesis, this project initiated three synergistic Research Objectives: (1) determine how the inclusion of iodine/iodide influences the chemical and physical properties of complex molten salt mixtures; (2) elucidate the speciation and fundamental chemical behavior of transient and steady-state iodine/iodide species formed by the irradiation of molten and solid salt mixtures; and (3) understand the influence of interfacial processes on determining the final disposition of iodine in high temperature molten salts, notably the structure and chemical speciation of iodine at metal-salt interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foundations of Molecular 'Isotomics'

The naturally occurring rare isotopes are versions of common elements, such as hydrogen, carbon and oxygen, that contain a larger than usual number of neutrons in their atomic nuclei and therefore are higher in mass than the common atoms of that element. Isotopes exist for most elements and are found in most natural and synthetic materials, but are uneven in their distribution because chemical and physical processes are isotope-selective (e.g., a chemical reaction may proceed more rapidly for one isotope than for another). For this reason, abundances of isotopes in a material of interest can provide a record, or ‘signature’ of various features of that material’s origin and history. These signatures have been used in the geo, life, chemical and physical sciences in a wide variety of ways over close to 8 decades. However, many such applications struggle to reach unique interpretations of isotopic data because multiple factors combine to control a given sample’s overall isotopic content. That is, the factors controlling isotopic content are too numerous and complex to fully constrain from a simple measurement of a material’s isotope abundances. However, the distribution of isotopes within materials, at molecular scales potentially provides a vastly larger number and diversity of constraints on the chemical and physical processes that comprise a material’s history. The rare isotopes may be concentrated into one atomic position in a molecule relative to another, some proportion of molecules in a sample may contain two or more rare isotopes, and those multiply-isotope-substituted forms of molecules may also have uneven distributions of those isotopes across individual atomic sites. For these reasons, even small, seemingly simple molecules, such as sugars, amino acids or drug compounds, actually exist in a vast number of isotopically unique forms (often millions or more), and each one of those forms is in some sense an independent ‘vote’ on that sample’s history. This project has focused on opening this rich archive of information by enabling the creation of routinely and widely applicable ways of measuring and interpreting isotopic structures of molecules. This work has included the development of core technologies and analytical methods, advancing fundamental understanding of the physical and chemical properties of isotopic versions of molecules, and conducting proof of concept studies of illustrative geochemical, cosmochemical and forensic problems in order to show how these technologies, methods and principles come together to solve problems in new ways. A key to the success of this project was the adaptation of ‘Fourier transform mass spectrometry’ (FTMS) to the task of precisely measuring proportions of the rare, naturally occurring isotopic forms of molecules. FTMS is a highly specialized form of mass spectrometry that traps ions within magnetic or electrostatic cavities and, effectively, ‘listens’ (through registering of subtle electrical signals) to the harmonic signals they make while rapidly orbiting within those cavities. These signals have periods that are a function of their mass and strength (or ‘loudness’) that is proportional to their abundances. Thus, these signals constrain relative amounts of molecules that differ in their mass due to various isotopic substitutions. This technology has been essential to the identification of organic molecules in the life, chemical and environmental sciences for over 4 decades, but generally has lacked the control, stability and precision to meaningfully measure rare isotope forms of molecules. This project’s most fundamental contribution has been to modify FTMS, both in terms of hardware and methods, to enable such measurements. The raw data of molecular isotopic structure is tremendously voluminous and complex, so another important activity of this project has been developing the theoretical and data-science tools needed to interpret the data generated by this new form of isotopic measurement. A particularly challenging part of this task has been predicting molecular isotopic structure, as only through the comparison of measurements with predictions can we make progress on hypothesis driven research questions. We have attacked this this prediction task through a combination of first-principles chemical-physics models of the effects of isotope substitution on molecule properties and data-science models that permit us to generalize that chemical physics to cases that have not yet been studied by detailed chemical physics theory. The proof of concept applications we have pursued over the course of this study include biological reactions of amino acids and other biomolecules, non-biological synthesis of organic molecules in extra-terrestrial settings such as meteorites, petroleum geoscience questions concerning the origin and evolution of natural gas, oil and kerogen compounds, and forensic questions such as the sourcing of chemical weapons. The successes of these applications have laid the groundwork for the next phase of this field’s development, which will include larger scale and more ambitious studies of molecular isotopic structure as a means of diagnosing human diseases, such as cancer, and reconstructing detailed interpretations of the origin and evolution of organic molecules in modern and geological environments.

Cesar, Jaime↗
DOE OSTI2022

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart detection of indoor occupant thermal state via infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning

The ability to measure occupants’ thermal state in real time will enable major advances in the control of air conditioning systems. This study proposes predicting occupant thermal state by a combination of infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning. The approach (1) uses cheek, nose, and hand temperatures because they are least subject to blockage by hair, glasses, and clothing; (2) measures the distribution of skin temperatures within geometrically defined sub-areas of the face and hand; and (3) uses temperature differences within and between these areas to eliminate the effects of calibration drift that are unavoidable in thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. Two series of tests were conducted, respectively in an outdoor carport and an indoor environmental chamber, collecting a total of 48,422 sets of cheek, nose, and hand skin temperatures using a TIR camera and computer-vision technology, coupled with 715 subjective responses of thermal sensations. To predict occupant thermal state, Random Forest classification models were built using either absolute skin temperatures (the maximum and median temperatures of cheek and hand segments, and the temperature of the central spot on the nose), or intra- and inter-segment temperature differences of cheeks, hands, and nose. These measurements were found to accurately predict occupant thermal state. Using the maximum and median temperatures for cheek and nose, or for cheek and hand, predicts thermal state with an accuracy of 92–96%. In conclusion, using only the intra- and inter-segment temperature differences from cheek and nose is 83% accurate; adding the hand temperature differences increases the accuracy to 96%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced data science toolkit for non-data scientists – A user guide

Emerging modern data analytics attracts much attention in materials research and shows great potential for enabling data-driven design. Data populated from the high-throughput CALPHAD approach enables researchers to better understand underlying mechanisms and to facilitate novel hypotheses generation, but the increasing volume of data makes the analysis extremely challenging. Here in this paper, we introduce an easy-to-use, versatile, and open-source data analytics frontend, ASCENDS (Advanced data SCiENce toolkit for Non-Data Scientists), designed with the intent of accelerating data-driven materials research and development. The toolkit is also of value beyond materials science as it can analyze the correlation between input features and target values, train machine learning models, and make predictions from the trained surrogate models of any scientific dataset. Various algorithms implemented in ASCENDS allow users performing quantified correlation analyses and supervised machine learning to explore any datasets of interest without extensive computing and data science background. The detailed usage of ASCENDS is introduced with an example of experimental high-temperature alloy data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecobuoys for Scalable Oceanography

An approach to scalable surface-drifting buoys is needed to enable the high spatial and temporal resolution of oceanographic data that the science and meteorological communities are asking for. With the number of active buoys predicted to increase by a factor of 100 or more, the impact on the environment becomes even more important. Here, we present a pathway to a scalable and sustainable generation of buoys. We identify the main criteria to be used when developing such buoys to be low cost, with reliable data and neutral or even positive environmental impact. For each buoy subsystem—hull, electronics, energy generation and storage, sensors, and communication system—cutting-edge technological solutions are presented, many of them from emerging research in marine or other disciplines. We then assess the potential solutions against the design criteria and plot a path toward small, environmentally friendly, low-cost, and low-power buoys.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗