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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medical Resource Set Bulky Item Trade Space Analysis for Spaceflight Medical Risk

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the efforts by NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess the impact of health and performance risk. One of MEDPRAT’s key features is its high degree of computational efficiency. Coupled with the HRP High Performance Compute cluster located at NASA’s Glenn Research Center, MEDPRAT runs millions of simulated missions in a matter of minutes. This degree of computational efficiency provides the novel opportunity to explore the relationship between medical set mass, volume, and medical resource size. Of particular interest for future human spaceflight missions are ‘bulky’ items, medical resources like devices, which occupy a large portion of the small, allocated mass and volume for the medical set leaving less room for other resources. This talk will present results showing the quantitative impact of forced inclusion of several bulky items across a variety of medical kit constraints, and the effect that a potential research investment into reducing the bulky item mass and volume may have on risk.

Lauren Mcintyre↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic structural analysis algorithm development for computational efficiency

The PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods) program is developing a probabilistic structural risk assessment capability for the SSME components. An advanced probabilistic structural analysis software system, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), is being developed as part of the PSAM effort to accurately simulate stochastic structures operating under severe random loading conditions. One of the challenges in developing the NESSUS system is the development of the probabilistic algorithms that provide both efficiency and accuracy. The main probability algorithms developed and implemented in the NESSUS system are efficient, but approximate in nature. In the last six years, the algorithms have improved very significantly.

Wu, Y.-T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Medical Risk on a Long Duration Lunar Mission: A Demonstration of NASA’s IMPACT Tradespace Analysis Tool

Background NASA’s human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. The distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and constraints on the medical evacuation of astronauts. Mass, volume, power, and data will be limited while higher demands will be placed on the crew to manage medical care. NASA’s Moon to Mars exploration strategy lays out increasingly complex Artemis missions both in terms of duration and operations. In these more challenging deep space missions, it is important to quantitatively estimate the human medical risk to inform a traditional heuristic approach to medical risk. Prior tools have been developed for missions in low Earth orbit, but a new tool is required to plan for future exploration missions. Methods IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; the addition of medical resources; and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life, consideration of the need for return to definitive care (medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew time affected due to medical conditions. A notional long duration lunar orbit and lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was chosen with a 4-astronaut crew to represent a sustained exploration Artemis mission. Results/Discussion Overall, IMPACT successfully quantified medical risk and derived an optimized medical system to support crew on a long duration lunar mission. In this DRM, the calculated loss of crew life from a medical event was 0.008 events per mission, risk of potential need for evacuation was 0.30 events per mission, and cumulative crew time affected by medical conditions was 103 days. The medical conditions that most contributed to overall medical risk were decompression sickness, trauma conditions, and respiratory failure. The conditions that had the largest effects on crew performance included musculoskeletal injuries and lunar dust exposure. The IMPACT-generated medical system included resources that target the most common and highest risk conditions. This systematic analysis demonstrates the value of the IMPACT tool in medical system design for human exploration spaceflight missions.

Missions to Mars↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Medical Risk on a Long Duration Lunar Mission: A Demonstration of NASA’s IMPACT Tradespace Analysis Tool

Background NASA’s human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. The distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and constraints on the medical evacuation of astronauts. Mass, volume, power, and data will be limited while higher demands will be placed on the crew to manage medical care. NASA’s Moon to Mars exploration strategy lays out increasingly complex Artemis missions both in terms of duration and operations. In these more challenging deep space missions, it is important to quantitatively estimate the human medical risk to inform a traditional heuristic approach to medical risk. Prior tools have been developed for missions in low Earth orbit, but a new tool is required to plan for future exploration missions. Methods IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; the addition of medical resources; and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life, consideration of the need for return to definitive care (medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew time affected due to medical conditions. A notional long duration lunar orbit and lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was chosen with a 4-astronaut crew to represent a sustained exploration Artemis mission. Results/Discussion Overall, IMPACT successfully quantified medical risk and derived an optimized medical system to support crew on a long duration lunar mission. In this DRM, the calculated loss of crew life from a medical event was 0.008 events per mission, risk of potential need for evacuation was 0.30 events per mission, and cumulative crew time affected by medical conditions was 103 days. The medical conditions that most contributed to overall medical risk were decompression sickness, trauma conditions, and respiratory failure. The conditions that had the largest effects on crew performance included musculoskeletal injuries and lunar dust exposure. The IMPACT-generated medical system included resources that target the most common and highest risk conditions. This systematic analysis demonstrates the value of the IMPACT tool in medical system design for human exploration spaceflight missions.

Missions to Mars↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2016

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

water scarcity↗
NASA NTRS2005

Overcoming obstacles to the exchange of information between risk tools

Our work to date in connecting risk tools hs had successes, but also has revealed there to be significant impediments to information exchange between them. These impediments stem from the well-known phenomenon of 'semantic dissonance' - mismatch between conceptual assumptions made by the separately developed tools. This issue represents a fundamental challenge that arises regardless of the mechanism of information exchange. This paper explains the issue and illustrates it with reference to our experiences to date connecting several risk tools. We motivate this work, present and discuss the solutions we have adopted to surmount these impediments, and the implications this work has for future efforts to integrate risk tools.

semantic dissonance↗
NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

Reliability prediction↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Probabilistic Methodology for Determining Collision Risk of Marine Animals with Tidal Energy Turbines

Commercial development of tidal stream energy is hampered by technical and financial challenges, and impeded by uncertainty about potential environmental effects that drive environmental risk assessments and permitting (consenting) processes. The effect of greatest concern for operational tidal stream energy devices is the potential for marine animals to collide with turbine blades, resulting in injury or death. Due to the turbulent and often turbid waters that frequently characterize tidal turbine sites, there is an absence of empirical evidence about collisions with marine animals. This paucity of observations often leads to risk-averse permitting decisions that further restrict the deployment of tidal energy devices that are needed to collect this evidence. This paper relies on the framework of stressors and receptors that is widely used in marine energy studies and outlines a stepwise probabilistic methodology that applies existing knowledge to further elucidate the risk to marine animals from operational tidal turbines. A case study using striped bass from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, accompanies the methodology, to partially demonstrate its application.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementing Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray Model for the Analysis of Space Radiation Exposure

For the analysis of radiation risks to astronauts and planning exploratory space missions, accurate energy spectrum of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is necessary. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. A model of the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2011 (BO11) GCR environment, which is represented by GCR deceleration potential theta, has been derived by utilizing all of the GCR measurements from balloons, satellites, and the newer NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). In the BO11 model, the solar modulation level is derived from the mean international sunspot numbers with time‐delay, which has been calibrated with actual flight instrument measurements to produce better GCR flux data fit during solar minima. GCR fluxes provided by the BO11 model were compared with various spacecraft measurements at 1 AU, and further comparisons were made for the tissue equivalent proportional counters measurements at low Earth orbits using the high‐charge and energy transport (HZETRN) code and various GCR models. For the comparison of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent calculations with the measurements by Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) at Gale crater on Mars, the intensities and energies of GCR entering the heliosphere were calculated by using the BO11 model, which accounts for time‐dependent attenuation of the local interstellar spectrum of each element. The BO11 model, which has emphasized for the last 24 solar minima, showed in relatively good agreement with the RAD data for the first 200 sols, but it was resulted in to be less well during near the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 due to subtleties in the changing heliospheric conditions. By performing the error analysis of the BO11 model and the optimization in reducing overall uncertainty, the resultant BO13 model corrects the fit at solar maxima as well as being accurate at solar minima. The BO13 model is implemented to the NASA Space Cancer Risk model for the assessment of radiation risks. Overall cumulative probability distribution of solar modulation parameters represents the percentile rank of the average interplanetary GCR environment, and the probabilistic radiation risks can be assessed for various levels of GCR environment to support mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

A methodology is presented for the computational simulation of primitive variable uncertainties, and attention is given to the simulation of specific aerospace components. Specific examples treated encompass a probabilistic material behavior model, as well as static, dynamic, and fatigue/damage analyses of a turbine blade in a mistuned bladed rotor in the SSME turbopumps. An account is given of the use of the NESSES probabilistic FEM analysis CFD code.

Shah, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗