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NASA NTRS2020

The Resilience of Habitable Climates Around Circumbinary Stars

Here we use a 3‐D climate system model to study the habitability of Earth‐like planets orbiting in circumbinary systems. In the most extreme cases, Earth‐like planets in circumbinary systems could experience variations in the incident stellar flux of up to ~50% on ~100‐day timescales. However, we find that Earth‐like planets, having abundant surface liquid water, are generally effective at buffering against these time‐dependent changes in the stellar irradiation due to the high thermal inertia of oceans compared with the relatively short periods of circumbinary‐driven variations in the received stellar flux. Ocean surface temperatures exhibit little to no variation in time; however, land surfaces can experience modest changes in temperature, thus exhibiting an additional mode of climate variability driven by the circumbinary variations. Still, meaningful oscillations in surface temperatures are only found for circumbinary system architectures featuring the largest physically possible amplitudes in the stellar flux variation. In the most extreme cases, an Earth‐like planet could experience circumbinary‐driven variations in the global mean land surface temperature of up to ~5 K, and variations of local daytime maximum temperatures of up to ~12 K on seasonal timescales, while the global mean ocean temperatures vary by less than ~2 K. Such seasonal temperature swings over land areas could potentially pose adaptability challenges for extant life. Still, habitable planets in circumbinary systems appear to be remarkably resilient against circumbinary‐driven climate variations and can avoid any true climate catastrophes.

Eric T Wolf↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Federated Cyber-Transmission-Distribution Testbed Architecture for the Resiliency Analysis

With the ongoing automation driven by the push toward the smart electric grid and the advancement in associated cyber infrastructure, the interaction between physical [electric transmission and distribution (T&D) systems], cyber (communication, automation, and control), and human (grid operators and decision-makers) is increasingly becoming more complex. This creates the requirement of analyzing the effect of the transmission system on the distribution system and vice versa with consideration of the additional complexity of the cyber infrastructure. Such an integrated testbed will also help with resiliency analysis, where resiliency refers to the ability of the system to continue serving energy to the critical loads even with limited extreme contingencies. Interaction of the physical power grid with the cyber layer can be effectively modeled using real-time (RT) simulator for developing and validating various operational and control algorithms. Testbeds using RT simulators with multiple capabilities have been developed at different institutions. Still, no single existing testbed can offer full scalability while simultaneously meeting high fidelity requirements for resiliency experimentation. Co-simulating federated testbed assets can provide a scalable experimentation platform that can be leveraged for verification and validation. In this article, an architecture is developed for federated cyber-physical testbed. A local federation with two real-time simulators is developed: real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and OPAL-RT have been interfaced using VILLAS framework for end-to-end testing. Also, a real-time linear predictor is developed and integrated here to address the communication latency impact on geographically allocated federated RT simulation. Finally, resiliency analysis tools are formulated and utilized for T&D systems. Finally as an illustrative use case, the resiliency of a T&D test system is simulated, and the results are analyzed. A 179-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) transmission system is developed using OPAL-RT/ HYPERSIM, and a modified IEEE 13 node feeder system is modeled in RTDS/RSCAD and interfaced for resiliency analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression-based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power-hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Transductive Graph Neural Network learning for Grid Resilience Analysis

Power grids are critical infrastructures that require robust resilience analysis to ensure reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply. Traditional simulation-based methods for grid resilience analysis suffer from computational complexity and limited ability to capture the full spectrum of potential disruptions. This paper presents a novel approach to enhance grid resilience by leveraging transductive graph neural network (GNN) learning to identify critical nodes and links. By leveraging the graph structure and system features, GNNs effectively learn resilience metrics and accurately identify critical nodes based on actual grid operational behavior. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through case studies on node criticality scoring and critical node/line identification in cascading outage scenarios. The results highlight the advantages of learning-based methods over traditional simulation-based approaches and their potential to revolutionize grid resilience analysis. The contributions of this paper include a graph-based scalable approach for fast cascading analysis, an inductive formulation for training GNN models, and a transfer learning-based approach to scale the model to largescale power systems.

grid resilience, graph neural networks, transducti↗

DOE OSTI2026

Superdiffusion resilience in Heisenberg chains with two-dimensional interactions on a quantum processor

Superdiffusive spin transport in the one-dimensional (1D) Heisenberg model is a key theoretical discovery in nonequilibrium quantum many-body physics. Although extensively studied in 1D systems, the breakdown and sustenance of superdiffusion in two-dimensional (2D) lattices with integrability-breaking terms, as found in real materials, remains an open question. To address this, we develop a toy model that extends the 1D Heisenberg model with a representative set of 2D interaction types and tunable strengths. Our model exhibits varying degrees of superdiffusion breakdown depending on the interaction type, spanning ballistic to diffusive regimes. We establish and justify a hierarchy of 2D interactions based on their resilience against superdiffusion breakdown: Heisenberg >𝑋⁢𝑋 > Ising. This precise control over the superdiffusive behavior also enables rigorous benchmarking of quantum hardware, and our simulations on IBM's Heron devices confirm the hardware's ability to accurately capture these many-body nonequilibrium phenomena. Overall, our results are relevant not only to simulating superdiffusion in real materials, such as the 1D Heisenberg compound KCuF3, which contains modest nonintegrable 2D terms, but also to extending superdiffusive behavior to larger 2D qubit lattices and other 2D materials.

Alagarsamy Manikandan, Keerthi Kumaran [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Design Patterns: A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (V.2.0)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore, the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires coordination between various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in future HPC systems, they are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. Therefore, the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods to integrate the various HPC resilience techniques into composite solutions, nor are there methods to holistically evaluate the adequacy and efficacy of such solutions in terms of their protection coverage, and their performance & power efficiency characteristics. Additionally, few implementations of current resilience solutions are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. We developed a new structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. In general, a design pattern is a repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identified the well-known solutions that are commonly used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. In the initial design patterns specification (version 1.0), we described the various solutions, which address specific problems in the design of resilient HPC environments, in the form of patterns. Each pattern describes a problem caused by a fault, error or failure event in an HPC environment, and then describes the core of the solution of the problem in such a way that this solution may be adapted to different systems and implemented at different layers of the system stack. The catalog of these resilience design patterns provides designers with a collection of design elements. To construct complete resilience solutions using combinations of various patterns, we defined a framework that enhances HPC designers' understanding of the important constraints and the opportunities for the design patterns to be implemented and deployed at various layers of the system stack. The design framework is also useful for establishing interfaces and mechanisms to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components, as well as to consider the trade-off between performance, resilience, and power consumption when constructing a solution. The resilience design patterns specification version 1.1 included more detailed explanations of the pattern solutions, the context in which the patterns are applicable, and the implications for hardware or software design. It also provided several additional examples and detailed case studies to demonstrate the use of patterns to build realistic solutions. In version 1.2 of the specification document, we have improved the pattern descriptions, including graphical representations of the pattern components. These improvements are largely based on critical comments, feedback and suggestions received from pattern experts and readers of the previous versions of the specification. The pattern classification has been modified to further clarify the relationships between pattern categories. This version of the specification also introduces a pattern language for resilience design patterns. The pattern language presents the patterns in the catalog as a network, revealing the relations among the resilience patterns. The language provides designers with the means to explore alternative techniques for handling a specific fault model that may have different efficiency and complexity characteristics. Using the pattern language also enables the design and implementation of comprehensive resilience solutions as a set of interconnected resilience patterns that can be instantiated across layers of the system stack. The overall goal of this work is to provide hardware and software designers, as well as the users and operators of HPC systems, a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-efficient manner despite frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types. Version 2.0 expands the resilience design pattern classification and catalog to include self-stabilization patterns and reliability, availability and performance models for each structural pattern.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Utility Costs Savings and Resilience: A Case Study in Port Arthur, Texas

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and generators to enhance both cost savings and resilience in critical community facilities in Port Arthur, Texas. Using NREL's REopt model, we analyze four facilities: the Golden Triangle Empowerment Center (GTEC), Lamar State College (LSC), Port Arthur Independent School District (PAISD), and Port Arthur Transit (PAT). A key aspect of the analysis is the incorporation of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) and microgrid upgrade costs to assess the hidden value of resilience during grid outages. While standalone PV scenarios show moderate cost reductions and a 10-15% decrease in CO2 emissions, the inclusion of resilience measures with BESS and generators significantly increases system costs. However, the hidden value of resilience - quantified through avoided outage costs - leads to a substantial improvement in financial outcomes, resulting in positive Net Present Value (NPV) at many sites. The study demonstrates that resilient solar and storage systems offer both economic and resilience benefits, particularly for underserved communities, by balancing energy savings and enhanced operational continuity during outages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase Field Modeling of Chemical Reaction Related Damage Evolution in Environmental Barrier Coatings

The advent of next-generation engines necessitates materials capable of withstanding temperatures beyond the reach of current superalloys. SiC-based ceramic matrix composites, augmented with environmental barrier coatings (EBCs), present a promising materials solution. Given the active search for effective and durable EBCs, there is a pressing need for modeling tools to understand and predict damage evolution in these materials to help accelerate their development. This study introduces a phase-field model (PFM) designed to simulate the thermally grown oxides (TGO) and phase transformation in the degradation and failure of EBCs. The model accounts for the severe volume expansion due to oxidation, alongside phase transformations and porosity evolution during thermal cycling, offering a comprehensive view of the damage processes. Simulation results are validated against experimental findings reported in the literature, establishing the model's potential as a significant tool for understanding and improving the resilience of EBCs in cyclic oxidative environments.

fast-diffusion path↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Value of Energy Storage for Power System Reliability and Resilience Applications

Abstract Purpose of Review The need for energy storage in the electrical grid has grown in recent years in response to a reduced reliance on fossil fuel baseload power, added intermittent renewable investment, and expanded adoption of distributed energy resources. While the methods and models for valuing storage use cases have advanced significantly in recent years, the value of enhanced resilience remains an open research question. Recent Findings The findings of the recent research indicate that energy storage provides significant value to the grid, with median benefit values for specific use cases ranging from under $10/kW-year for voltage support to roughly $100/kW-year for capacity and frequency regulation services. While the value of lost load is used widely to estimate the benefits of mitigating short-duration outages, reaching as high as $719/kilowatt-year, there is no consensus when it comes to monetizing the value of improving grid resilience. Summary This paper presents a use case taxonomy for energy storage and uses the taxonomy to conduct a meta-analysis of an extensive set of energy storage valuation studies. It reviews several approaches for monetizing reliability and resiliency services and presents a proposed approach for valuing resiliency for energy storage investments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical testbed for improving attack resilience of power systems

Abstract A power system is a complex cyber‐physical system whose security is critical to its function. A major challenge is to model, analyse and visualise the communication backbone of the power systems concerning cyber threats. To achieve this, the design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical power system (CPPS) testbed called Resilient Energy Systems Lab (RESLab) are presented to capture realistic cyber, physical, and protection system features. RESLab is architected to be a fundamental platform for studying and improving the resilience of complex CPPS to cyber threats. The cyber network is emulated using Common Open Research Emulator (CORE), which acts as a gateway for the physical and protection devices to communicate. The physical grid is simulated in the dynamic time frame using Power World Dynamic Studio (PWDS). The protection components are modelled with both PWDS and physical devices including the SEL Real‐Time Automation Controller (RTAC). Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3) is used to monitor and control the grid. Then, the design is exemplified and the tools are validated. This work presents four case studies on cyberattack and defence using RESLab, where we demonstrate false data and command injection using Man‐in‐the‐Middle and Denial of Service attacks and validate them on a large‐scale synthetic electric grid.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

DOE OSTI2020

Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study

Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $\$180$ million with an annualized risk of $\$90,000$ given the event’s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system—i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

DER Planning with Resilience Analysis Using REopt Lite: A Behind-the-Meter Techno-Economic Analysis Tool

REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unlocking America's Abundant Marine Energy Resources

NREL Marine Energy One-Pager: A resource designed for use during NREL campus visits - especially with high-profile guests - as well as at events in Washington, D.C., when engaging with the new administration, and for displays at WPTO or lab booths. The U.S. holds vast untapped marine energy resources - wave, tidal, river, and ocean currents - that can strengthen grid resilience, support coastal communities, and advance energy independence. NREL leads innovation in this space through advanced modeling tools, patented technologies, and world-class testing facilities. NREL's simulation platforms, like OpenFAST and SAM, help reduce development time and risk. Patented devices such as PKelp and FlexWEC demonstrate flexible, resilient approaches to energy capture. At Flatirons Campus, NREL offers motion simulation, structural testing, wave tanks, and megawatt-scale microgrid emulation via the ARIES platform. These capabilities help developers refine and validate devices before in-water trials. With upcoming open-water testing at PacWave and strong partnerships, NREL is accelerating the path to commercialization - positioning the U.S. as a global leader in marine energy innovation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Inverter Controls for Resilient and Secure Grid Operation: Vector Control Design for Grid Forming

The project addresses both fundamental and practical challenges of GFM/GFL inverter control for the power grids with high inverter based resources (IBRs) penetration. A data- driven modeling technique is applied to accurately model dynamics of PWM inverters, including electromagnetic-transient (EMT). Systematic and integrative designs of grid- forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) primary controls are developed to guarantee system performance under either normal or abnormal operating conditions without violating constraints. This modeling and control framework provides black-start capability in case of an outage without relying on rotating generators, and its secondary control is also shown to enhance resilience against cyber-physical attacks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗