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Sensitivity of Next-Generation CMB Surveys to Neutrinos and Other Light Relics

Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number $N_\mathrm{eff}$. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches $σ(N_\mathrm{eff}) < 0.03$ over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise $N_\mathrm{eff}$ measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.

Trendafilova, Cynthia [Case Western Reserve U., CE↗

Oxygen and Proton Transport in Flooded Graphene Pores with N-Dopants and Defects

Reactant transport is an important consideration in the design of ideal electrode structures. For the oxygen reduction reaction catalyzed by Pt/C in proton exchange membrane fuel cell cathodes, O 2 and H + delivery to Pt surfaces and H 2 O transport away are required. Some Pt nanoparticles may only be accessible via micropores that are too small for ionomer molecules to enter, possibly requiring flooding for H + transport. Here, to test if these “buried” Pt particles can play a role in activity through this proposed transport mechanism, we have performed atomic-scale simulations based on reactive force field molecular dynamics with an emphasis on confinement below 20 Å. Diffusion coefficients as a function of the molar concentration and local environment have been evaluated in water domains confined in two-dimensional graphene nanochannels of various channel heights representing a morphological model for micropores in proton exchange fuel cell cathodes. Our study shows that local atomic-scale structures can strongly modify H + , O 2 , and H 2 O transport rates in flooded micropores less than 20 Å in size. We find that there is a critical crossover in diffusion behavior around the 20 Å spacing with larger pores having bulk-like diffusion properties and confinement below 20 Å monotonically decreases diffusion rates. As pore size decreases, we observe locally dispersed water regions that ultimately strand reactants from long-distance transport. These findings suggest that flooded micropores may in fact be viable transport pathways for relevant reactants and products if the pore walls on opposite sides remain separated by ≥10 Å separation. Furthermore, the confinement effect is so strong that N-doping and C-vacancy defects in the C pore wall have only a minimal impact on diffusion rates and their effects are counterintuitively more apparent at larger spacings. These findings provide valuable insight regarding cathode performance and the role “stranded” catalyst particles may play in fuel cell cathodes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Quantum Nature and Mass of the Neutrino. FY20 Annual Laboratory Continuation Progress Report

Over the last 100 years we have learned a much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing experiments to measure the mass and the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recommended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time project chamber called nEXO. On a longer time scale, LLNL is also developing technology to measure the neutrino mass with tritium decay experiments. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to develop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. The Project 8 effort is solely funded by LLNL LDRD, and ends this year. A second LDRD effort is focused on repurposing cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy for eV-scale X-ray detection. This second effort, while separated from Project 8, still has scientific and technical commonalities with Project 8. The funding for this X-ray detection effort will continue for one more year. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP.We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program development dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews that lie ahead, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up an external advisory committee. The current LDRD is exploring alternatives that effect the risk profile as well as possible performance improvements. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the understanding of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. The results of this effort are reported elsewhere, but the scope of this executed at LLNL will be reported here and is primarily the engineering and construction of the LXTS experiment. The primary technical contribution of LLNL to the Project 8 concept is the formation and study of atomic tritium. Atomic tritium is necessary for Project 8 to reach the ultimate sensitivity. LLNL has considerable experience with tritium and is well suited for this crucial work. Although the focus of this work is strictly fundamental science, there has already been one significant spinoff to develop a new means to measure radio xenon in the air

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Atomizing Electrospray Nozzles on the Cooling and Reduced Humidification of Air

Separating sensible and latent cooling have shown the potential to reduce energy consumption in A/C systems for building HVAC applications. Several technologies exist based on vapor-compression refrigeration, enthalpy wheels, chemical adsorption and absorption materials, and mechanical cooling. However, their thermodynamics limits and high energy consumption hinder their deployment in hot and humid climatic regions. This paper focuses on separating sensible and latent cooling by using a new thermodynamics process and in-kind (i.e., non-vapor compression-based) technology. Highly electrically charged water droplets were sprayed in the airflow. These droplets attracted water vapor molecules to their surfaces and promoted condensation. The phenomenon was the result of simultaneous dielectrophoresis and electro-diffusion interactions. Studies in the literature have shown that using multiple capillary electrodes reduced air moisture by up to 5% when using nanometer-size droplets in the spray. Unfortunately, these studies were limited to low airflow rates, and the objective of this paper was to investigate how to scale up this in-kind approach to airflows typical of buildings. In the present paper, droplets of micrometer size were utilized to control the humidity for a 5-cfm flow rate. While this airflow was still low for building applications, it was 100 times fold the airflows in the literature studies. The air was tested at 20°C and at 50 and 80% relative humidity. A two-fluid atomizing nozzle produced the droplets in the spray, and high DC electric potential, up to 25 kV, was used to charge the fine droplets electrically. The air atomizing nozzle with high voltage potential resembled an evaporative cooler process. However, a measurable reduction of the absolute humidity of up to 2% was observed compared to the case of the nozzle with no high voltage potential. The entire device had one small nozzle selected from off-the-shelf components and had less than a 9 cm2 footprint area.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advanced Instrumentation for Metal Additive Manufacturing

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is the most widely used process for metal additive manufacturing (AM), particularly where complex geometries provide performance advantages unattainable with traditional manufacturing techniques. However, LPBF is highly sensitive to innate variability in both the powder spreading and fusion steps, often leading to defects such as pores that are difficult to detect yet significantly impair component mechanical properties and fatigue life. This thesis presents a range of novel instruments enabling both precise assessment of powder layer characteristics and in-situ thermal metrology of metal AM to advance the quality control of LPBF. First, leveraging a custom X-ray microscope and a radiation-transport model developed through this work, transmission X-ray imaging is used to study spreading of thin metal powder layers. Effective layer depth is directly mapped at a process-relevant size scale, surpassing optical techniques that can only estimate local deposition from layer surface topography. Layer packing density and quality are shown to be influenced by powder flowability and particle size relative to nominal powder layer thickness. Layer quality is additionally connected to the geometry of the spreading implement and its velocity. This technique and its presented findings enable pairing feedstocks with spreading strategies that create layers with consistent packing density and uniformity. Second, a twofold approach is employed to optically interrogate the laser fusion step of LPBF for observing signatures of defect formation. Aperture division multiplexing is conceptualized, providing for simultaneous laser delivery and high-fidelity infrared (IR) process monitoring through a common optic. In-situ microscopy at 50 μm spatial resolution and at mid-wave IR wavelengths is proven readily achievable with the first purpose-built optic of this type. Next, a bespoke imaging spectrometer, along with a temperature-emissivity separation technique, is used to retrieve accurate process temperatures over a 1000 K range. Data from these instruments are correlated to porosity as fine as 4.3 μm in two LPBF test artifacts, as verified using computed tomography (CT), establishing the viability of robust optically-based component qualification.

Penny, Ryan↗

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation Test Final As-run Report

This document presents the as-run analysis of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. AGR-5/6/7 is the last of a series of experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic low-enriched fuel for use in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The test train contained five separate capsules that were independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contained multiple 24.91-mm-long and 12.25-mm-dimeter compacts filled with low-enriched uranium carbide/oxide tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment were to: • Irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification. • Establish operating margins for the fuel, beyond normal operating conditions. • Provide irradiated-fuel performance data and irradiated-fuel samples for post-irradiation examination and safety testing. The primary objective of the AGR-5/6 test (Capsules 1, 2, 4, and 5) was to verify the successful performance of the reference-design fuel under normal operating conditions. The AGR-7 test (Capsule 3) was designed to explore fuel performance at higher temperatures. Its primary objective was to demonstrate the capability of the fuel to withstand conditions beyond normal operating conditions, in support of plant design and licensing. AGR-5/6/7 will also provide irradiated-fuel performance data based on the fission gas release from particles during irradiation. To achieve the test objectives, the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was irradiated in the northeast flux trap of the ATR with a planned duration of 500 effective full-power days. The northeast flux trap was selected because its larger diameter provided greater flexibility for test-train design compared to the Large B positions used for the AGR-1 and AGR-2 irradiations, significantly enhancing test capabilities for the combined irradiation campaigns. Due to delays in the ATR schedule, the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation was significantly shorter than the originally planned 13-cycle schedule. Irradiation began on February 16, 2018 and ended on July 22, 2020, spanning nine ATR cycles (162B–168A) over two and a half years. Thus, the AGR-5/6/7 fuel compacts were irradiated for a total of approximately 360.9 effective full-power days. Final burnup values, on a per-compact basis, ranged from 5.66 to 15.26% fissions per initial heavy metal atom, while fast fluence values ranged from 1.62 to 5.55 × 1025 n/m2 (E >0.18 MeV). Time-averaged volume-averaged fuel temperatures on a capsule basis at the end of irradiation ranged from 756°C in Capsule 5 to 1313°C in Capsule 3 excluding days with significantly lower temperature during the two short powered axial locator mechanism cycles, 163A and 167A. By the end of irradiation, 48 out of 54 installed thermocouples had failed (the bottom three capsules lost all thermocouples). During the first five cycles (162B – 165A), the fission-gas isotope release-rate-to-birthrate (R/B) ratios were stable in the 10-8–10-6 range, and no in-pile particle failures were observed based on the gross gamma counts. During this time, the high exposed kernel fraction and high fuel particle temperatures in Capsule 1 led to a maximum R/B value of around 2 ? 10-6 for Kr-85m. The fission gas release in all capsules started to increase from the second half of Cycle 166A, when a large number of in-pile particle failures occurred in Capsule 1 and a gas line problem in this capsule caused fission gas leakage at various degrees into the other four capsules. This gas line problem also prevented a fission gas release measurement for Capsule 1 during the last three cycles due to gas flow isolation. By the end of irradiation, it is estimated that approximately 15 particles failed in Capsule 3, which was considered possible because the experiment was designed to operate beyond the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor normal operating temperature range. A few hundred in-pile particle failures were estimated for Capsule 1 by the end of Cycle 166A, but the total number of failures is unknown due to the lack of fission gas release data in the later cycles. Additionally, four potential in-pile failures were identified for Capsule 2 during the last cycle, Cycle 168A. In contrast, no in-pile failures were identified in the top two capsules (4 and 5) based on the absence of the typical spikes in gross gamma counts and low failure estimates using the AGR-3/4 R/B per exposed kernel model.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigation of porous polydimethylsiloxane structures with tunable properties induced by the phase separation technique

This article reports the fabrication and characterization of porous polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) structures developed by the solvent evaporationinduced phase separation technique. Here, ternary systems containing water/ tetrahydrofuran (THF)/PDMS with various concentrations are produced to form a stable solution. The porous PDMS structures are formed by removing the solvent (THF) and nonsolvent (water) phases during the stepping heat treatment procedure. The analytical ternary phase diagram is constructed based on the thermodynamic equilibrium state in the polymer solution to explain the stable/unstable formulations and the possible composition change path. The results show that the isolated pores with the adjustable pore size ranging from 330 to 1900 μm are obtained by tuning the water to the THF ratio. The mechanical properties of the porous PDMS structures are determined by conducting the tensile tests on the prepared dog bone-shaped specimens. A wide range of elastic modulus ranging between 0.49 and 1.05 MPa was achieved without affecting the density of the porous sample by adjusting the solvent and non-solvent content in the solution. It is shown that the flexibility of the porous structures can be improved by reducing the ratio of water to THF and decreasing the PDMS content. The porosity measurements reveal that the PDMS concentration is the major phase controlling the porosity of the structure, while the effect of water/THF is negligible.

42 ENGINEERING↗

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation Test Final As-run Report

This document presents the as-run analysis of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 irradiation experiment. AGR-5/6/7 is the last of a series of experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of the development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) low enriched fuel for use in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR). The test train contained five separate capsules that were independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contained multiple 24.91-mm-long and 12.25-mm-dimeter compacts filled with low-enriched uranium carbide/oxide tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. The objectives of the AGR 5/6/7 experiment were to: 1. Irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification. 2. Establish operating margins for the fuel, beyond normal operating conditions. 3. Provide irradiated-fuel performance data and irradiated-fuel samples for post irradiation examination and safety testing. The primary objective of the AGR-5/6 test (Capsules 1, 2, 4, and 5) was to verify the successful performance of the reference-design fuel under normal operating conditions. The AGR-7 test (Capsule 3) was designed to explore fuel performance at higher temperatures. Its primary objective is to demonstrate the capability of the fuel to withstand conditions beyond normal operating conditions, in support of plant design and licensing. AGR 5/6/7 will also provide irradiated-fuel performance data based on the fission gas release from particles during irradiation. To achieve the test objectives, the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was irradiated in the northeast (NE) flux trap of the ATR with a planned duration of 500 effective full-power days (EFPDs). The NE flux trap was selected because its larger diameter provided greater flexibility for test-train design compared to the Large B positions used for the AGR-1 and AGR-2 irradiations, significantly enhancing test capabilities for the combined irradiation campaigns. Due to delays in the ATR schedule, the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation was significantly shorter than the originally planned 13-cycle schedule. Irradiation began on February 16, 2018 and ended on July 22, 2020, spanning nine ATR cycles (162B?168A) over two and a half years. Thus, the AGR-5/6/7 fuel compacts were irradiated for a total of approximately 360.9 EFPDs. Final burnup values, on a per-compact basis, ranged from 5.66% to 15.26% fissions per initial heavy metal atom, while fast fluence values ranged from 1.62 to 5.55 × 1025 n/m2 (E >0.18 MeV). Time-averaged volume-averaged fuel temperatures on a capsule basis at the end of irradiation ranged from 756°C in Capsule 5 to 1313°C in Capsule 3 excluding days with significantly lower temperature during the two short powered axial locator mechanism cycles, 163A and 167A. By the end of irradiation, 48 out of 54 installed thermocouples (TC) had failed (the bottom three capsules lost all TCs). During the first five cycles (162B ? 165A), fission-gas isotope release-rate-to-birthrate (R/B) ratios were stable in the 10-8?10-6 range, and no in-pile particle failures were observed based on the gross gamma counts. During this time, the high exposed kernel fraction and high fuel particle temperatures in Capsule 1 led to the maximum R/B value of around 2 ? 10-6 for Kr-85m. The fission gas release in all capsules started to increase from the second half of Cycle 166A, when a large number of in-pile particle failures occurred in Capsule 1 and a gas line problem in this capsule caused fission gas leakage at various degrees into the other four capsules. This gas line problem also prevented fission gas release measurement for Capsule 1 during the last three cycles due to gas flow isolation. By the end of irradiation, it is estimated that approximately 15 particle failures in Capsule 3, which was considered possible at the start of the irradiation, since the experiment was designed to operate beyond the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) normal operating temperature range. A few hundred in-pile particle failures were estimated for Capsule 1 by the end of Cycle 166A, but the total number of failures is unknown due to lack of fission gas release data in the later cycles. Additionally, four potential in-pile failures were identified for Capsule 2 during the last cycle, 168A. In contrast, no in-pile failures were identified in the top two capsules (4 and 5) based on absence of the typical spikes in gross gamma counts and low failure estimates using the AGR-3/4 R/B per exposed kernel model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Simulation of DWPF Chemical Process Cell Using a Reaction Calorimeter

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) converts liquid radioactive waste into glass using a Sludge Receipt Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) in addition to other processes. The SRAT and SME processes can be simulated on a small-scale using the Mettler-Toledo Reaction Calorimeter (RC1). This equipment is able to automate the execution and monitoring of experiments involving nonradioactive chemical simulants. During the chemical processing of sludge in the SRAT process, foam begins to form and can foam over the reaction vessel. The current antifoam used at DWPF creates a risk of increased flammability and has a limited pH range. Usually, mercury is circulated back into the reaction vessel during the SRAT process, making it difficult to remove. To combat foam over, novel antifoams will be tested during the boil-up process using the RC1. To improve mercury extraction, 3D-printed coalescer columns will be tested within the Mercury Water Wash Tank (MWWT) of the RC1. Testing of Simulant Sludge Batch 6 (SB6) was performed to ensure: the sludge would form a stable foam at boiling during full SRAT/SME runs; the antifoam would reduce the amount of foam within the vessel The sludge and a Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT) simulant with monosodium titanate (MST) were mixed separately, combined, and then heated to boiling. As shown below, the antifoam used was able to eliminate the foam within the vessel, as expected. The FormLabs Form2 3D Printer can be used to create roughly 3-inch tall and 1-inch diameter columns from clear and ceramic resins. The columns will utilize chemical and physical forces to draw the mercury out of a condensed offgas stream leaving the RC1 reaction vessel. These columns will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs on the basis of how well they are able to collect elemental mercury. In preparation for full-scale runs, the RC1 equipment was assembled onto a custom table and tested with water runs. The software used to control automation, iControl, has a user-friendly interface that allows the experiment to be altered as needed. An example of the data recorded during an experimental run is represented in Figure 1 below. Water runs were utilized as a way to prove if the RC1 system was functioning in the following areas: Boil-up rates, Chemical additions using pumps, Temperature readings, Balance readings, Probe readings, Offgas system, Agitation. Future Plans: Five novel antifoams will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs. The most effective antifoam will be utilized in DWPF's Chemical Process Cell. The design of the Mercury Extraction Coalescer can be further manipulated to increase the extraction of not only elemental mercury, but other heavy metals in environmental remediation processes as well.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Probing the baryon content of SDSS DR15 galaxies with the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effects

We present high signal-to-noise measurements (up to 12$\sigma$) of the average thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect from optically selected galaxy groups and clusters and estimate their baryon content within a 2.1$^\prime$ radius aperture. Sources from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) DR15 catalog overlap with 3,700 sq. deg. of sky observed by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 2008 to 2018 at 150 and 98 GHz (ACT DR5), and 2,089 sq. deg. of internal linear combination component-separated maps combining ACT and $\it{Planck}$ data (ACT DR4). The corresponding optical depths, $\bar{\tau}$, which depend on the baryon content of the halos, are estimated using results from cosmological hydrodynamic simulations assuming an AGN feedback radiative cooling model. We estimate the mean mass of the halos in multiple luminosity bins, and compare the tSZ-based $\bar{\tau}$ estimates to theoretical predictions of the baryon content for a Navarro-Frenk-White profile. We do the same for $\bar{\tau}$ estimates extracted from fits to pairwise baryon momentum measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (kSZ) for the same data set obtained in a companion paper. We find that the $\bar{\tau}$ estimates from the tSZ measurements in this work and the kSZ measurements in the companion paper agree within $1\sigma$ for two out of the three disjoint luminosity bins studied, while they differ by 2-3$\sigma$ in the highest luminosity bin. The optical depth estimates account for one third to all of the theoretically predicted baryon content in the halos across luminosity bins. Potential systematic uncertainties are discussed. The tSZ and kSZ measurements provide a step towards empirical Compton-$\bar{y}$-$\bar{\tau}$ relationships to provide new tests of cluster formation and evolution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using Separation-Enhanced Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry to Enable Increased Renewable Carbon Content in Transportation Fuels (CRADA 525)

Stable isotope ratio measurements of carbon atoms using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) can be an effective tool for quantifying biogenic carbon in co-processed fuels, with results approaching the precision and accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The lower cost of an IRMS may enable deployment to refineries, improving access and analysis turnaround times (≤2 hours), and, by extension, provide data that can allow process optimization to maximize renewable carbon in desired refinery products. This project explored the integration of chemical separation with IRMS analyses to enable highly detailed tracking of biogenic carbon into fuel product streams separated by boiling point range, chemical class, or specific compound. Forty-nine fuels and fuel components of fossil and biogenic origin, spanning gasoline and diesel boiling point ranges, were received from three refiners and were analyzed for their δ 13 C values via IRMS. Results spanned a 13 C range from ca. 10‰ to 44‰ and reflect materials derived from sustainable sources (e.g., C4 or C3 plants, animal-based pathways, syngas) or from fossil-derived fuels. Common ranges are approximately 18‰ to 9‰ and approximately 30‰ to 20‰ for C4 and C3 plants, respectively, and approximately 34‰ to 24‰ and approximately 70‰ to 33‰ for petroleum-derived fuels and methane, respectively. Fuel-like standards were developed and tested using direct-injection elemental analyzer (EA) IRMS for liquid fuels. This method was compared with the published methods, yielding statistically similar results. Four blend curve sets were produced ranging from 0% to 100% of a fuel containing biogenic carbon, focusing on 0% to 10% biogenic carbon. Linear fits were the most applicable for two of the four blend curve sets; however, two sets were found to exhibit slightly quadratic behavior, which was more pronounced in low biogenic blend samples, necessitating second-order fits. The origin of the slight quadratic behavior remains unclear; however, the discussion points to possible interpretations. CanmetENERGY thoroughly characterized a majority of the samples using one- and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC and GC×GC, respectively) and other analyses. Selected samples were subjected to solid phase extraction (SPE) for saturate, olefin, aromatic, and polar (SOAP) analysis, and the resulting solvent-diluted fractions containing saturates and aromatics were returned to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where the solvent was removed via evaporation or physical separation using GC techniques. Characterization and separations provided an understanding of saturate and aromatic content, as well as boiling point ranges for each sample and sample fraction. Samples resulting from SPE were examined using EA-IRMS and gas chromatography combustion IRMS (GC-C-IRMS) analyses. Both approaches suggest that the range in values between end-members can be increased by selecting the paraffinic or aromatic fraction of the end-member or by selecting among individual compounds resulting from GC separation of the paraffinic fractions. Considerable work remains to put these approaches into practice and statistically validate the benefit for using a fraction or individual compound over bulk analysis of a sample. However, initial results suggest that separations provide advantages for samples having blend ratios of less than 10% biogenic blendstocks. 13 C results showed statistically similar biofuel blend results to those obtained at PNNL, although additional work is needed to obtain better reproducibility. Select samples were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for IRMS measurements and Beta Analytics for AMS measurements. This work suggests that IRMS and AMS yield closely comparable results and in some circumstances, IRMS could serve as a surrogate for AMS. While additional work is needed to better resolve statistical advantages for separations and better show the comparable nature of IRMS and AMS in both the biogenic carbon analysis of bulk chemical classes, initial results from this study suggest that these should be pursued in order to proliferate this approach for quantifying biogenic carbon in transportation fuels to the refinery level, thereby potentially enabling process optimization in co-processing scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI quasar targets and Planck CMB lensing

We detect the cross-correlation between 2.7 million DESI quasar targets across 14,700 deg 2 (180 quasars deg -2 ) and Planck 2018 CMB lensing at ~30σ. We use the cross-correlation on very large scales to constrain local primordial non-Gaussianity via the scale dependence of quasar bias. The DESI quasar targets lie at an effective redshift of 1.51 and are separated into four imaging regions of varying depth and image quality. We select quasar targets from Legacy Survey DR9 imaging, apply additional flux and photometric redshift cuts to improve the purity and reduce the fraction of unclassified redshifts, and use early DESI spectroscopy of 194,000 quasar targets to determine their redshift distribution and stellar contamination fraction (2.6%). Due to significant excess large-scale power in the quasar autocorrelation, we apply weights to mitigate contamination from imaging systematics such as depth, extinction, and stellar density. We use realistic contaminated mocks to determine the greatest number of systematic modes that we can fit, before we are biased by overfitting and spuriously remove real power. We find that linear regression with one to seven imaging templates removed per region accurately recovers the input cross-power, f NL and linear bias. As in previous analyses, our fNL constraint depends on the linear primordial non-Gaussianity bias parameter, b Φ = 2(b - p)δ c assuming universality of the halo mass function. We measure f NL = -26 +45 -40 with p = 1.6 (f NL = -18 +29 -27 with p = 1.0), and find that this result is robust under several systematics tests. Future spectroscopic quasar cross-correlations with Planck lensing can tighten the f NL constraints by a factor of 2 if they can remove the excess power on large scales in the quasar auto power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Battery Life Prediction Using Reduced-Order Physics Models and Machine Learning (CRADA Final Report)

Phase 1 (Original CRADA, plus no-cost extension modifications #1-3, 6/1/2017 to 3/13/2021): The Australian Department of Defence (AUDoD) is performing accelerated aging tests of Li-ion batteries to benchmark their reliability and degradation characteristics. Using its previously developed battery lifetime predictive model framework, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will develop analytical models based the AUDoD data to predict lifetime of the multiple Li-ion battery chemistries under real-world use scenarios of interest to AUDoD. The NLR model is based on physical degradation mechanisms encountered by Li-ion batteries and has been previously validated. Phase 2 (CRADA modification #4, plus no-cost extension modification #5, 2/22/2021 to 3/30/2025): Train and support Australian Department of Defence personnel to use NLR software for model-based estimation of Li-ion battery lifetime using accelerated battery aging data collected by the Australian Department of Defence. Under separate DOE funding from 2019 to 2021, NLR enhanced its battery life-prediction software using machine learning algorithms to automate portions of the model-fitting process, requiring significantly less labor and expert judgment and also adding uncertainty quantification, increasing statistical rigor. Under Phase 2, NLR will customize NLR Software and provide it to AuDoD. NLR will enhance its NLR Model to capture aging modes of AuDoD's multi-cell modules, including cell-balancing effects. NLR will develop example single-cell and multi-cell models based on one AuDoD battery aging dataset. NLR will train AuDoD personnel on NLR Software. By the conclusion of the project, NLR will have provided AuDoD the training materials, a user manual and software needed to perform their own analysis of additional and/or future battery aging datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Convective and Turbulent Motions in Nonprecipitating Cu. Part II: LES Simulated Cloud Represented by a Starting Plume

The dynamic structure of a small trade wind cumulus (Cu) is analyzed using a novel approach. Cu developing in a shear-free environment is simulated by 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. The aim is to clarify the dynamical nature of cloud updraft zone (CUZ) including entrainment and mixing in growing Cu. The validity of concept stating that a cloud at developing state can be represented by a parcel or a jet is tested. To investigate dynamical entrainment in CUZ performed by motions with scales larger than the turbulence scales, the modeled fields of air velocity were filtered by wavelet filter that separated convective motions from turbulent ones. Two types of objects in developing cloud were investigated: small volume ascending at maximal velocity (point parcel) and CUZ. It was found that the point parcel representing the upper part of cloud core is adiabatic. The motion of the air in this parcel ascending from cloud base determines cloud-top height. The top-hat (i.e., averaged) values of updraft velocity and adiabatic fraction in CUZ are substantially lower than those in the point parcel. Evaluation of the terms in the dynamical equation typically used in 1D cloud parcel models show that this equation can be applied for calculation of vertical velocities at the developing stage of small Cu, at least up to the heights of the inversion layer. Dynamically, the CUZ of developing cloud resembles the starting plume with the tail of nonstationary jet. Both the top-hat vertical velocity and buoyancy acceleration linearly increase with the height, at least up to the inversion layer. An important finding is that lateral entrainment of convective (nonturbulent) nature has a little effect on the top-hat CUZ velocity and cannot explain the vertical changes of conservative variables qt and θl. In contrast, entrained air lifting inside CUZ substantially decreases top-hat liquid water content and its adiabatic fraction. Possible reasons of these effects are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Redshift space power spectrum beyond Einstein-de Sitter kernels

Abstract We develop a framework to compute the redshift space power spectrum (PS), with kernels beyond Einstein-de Sitter (EdS), that can be applied to a wide variety of generalized cosmologies. We build upon a formalism that was recently employed for standard cosmology in Chen, Vlah & White (2020), and utilize an expansion of the density-weighted velocity moment generating function that explicitly separates the magnitude of the k-modes and their angle to the line-of-sight direction dependencies. We compute the PS for matter and biased tracers to 1-loop Perturbation Theory (PT) and show that the expansion has a correct infrared and ultraviolet behavior, free of unwanted divergences. We also add Effective Field Theory (EFT) counterterms, necessary to account for small-scale contributions to PT, and employ an IR-resummation prescription to properly model the smearing of the BAO due to large scale bulk flows within Standard-PT. To demonstrate the applicability of our formalism, we apply it on the ΛCDM and the Hu-Sawicki f(R) models, and compare our numerical results against the elephant suite of N-body simulations, finding very good agreement up to k = 0.27 Mpc -1 h at z = 0.5 for the first three non-vanishing Legendre multipoles of the PS. To our knowledge, the model presented in this work is the most accurate theoretical EFT-PT for modified gravity to date, being the only one that accounts for beyond linear local biasing in redshift-space. Hence, we argue our RSD modeling is a promising tool to construct theoretical templates in order to test deviations from ΛCDM using real data obtained from the next stage of cosmological surveys such as DESI and LSST.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗