Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Stochastic Modeling and Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Potential vorticity transport in weakly and strongly magnetized plasmas

Tangled magnetic fields, often coexisting with an ordered mean field, have a major impact on turbulence and momentum transport in many plasmas, including those found in the solar tachocline and magnetic confinement devices. We present a novel mean field theory of potential vorticity mixing in β-plane magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and drift wave turbulence. Our results show that mean square stochastic fields strongly reduce Reynolds stress coherence. This decoherence of potential vorticity flux due to stochastic field scattering leads to suppression of momentum transport and zonal flow formation. A simple calculation suggests that the breaking of the shear-eddy tilting feedback loop by stochastic fields is the key underlying physics mechanism. Furthermore, a dimensionless parameter that quantifies the increment in power threshold is identified and used to assess the impact of stochastic field on the L-H transition. We discuss a model of stochastic fields as a resisto-elastic network.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase transitions in Schloegl's second model for autocatalysis on a Bethe lattice

Schloegl's second model (also known as the quadratic contact process) on a lattice involves spontaneous particle annihilation at rate p and autocatalytic particle creation at empty sites with n ≥ 2 occupied neighbors. The particle creation rate for exactly n occupied neighbors is selected here as n(n - 1)/[z(z - 1)] for lattice coordination number z. We analyze this model on a Bethe lattice. Precise behavior for stochastic models on regular periodic infinite lattices is usually surmised from kinetic Monte Carlo simulation on a finite lattice with periodic boundary conditions. However, the persistence of boundary effects for a Bethe lattice complicates this process, e.g., by inducing spatially heterogenous states. This motivates the exploration of various boundary conditions and unconventional simulation ensembles on the Bethe lattice to predict behavior for infinite size. Here, we focus on z = 3, and predict a discontinuous transition to the vacuum state on the infinite lattice when p exceeds a threshold value of around 0.053.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enabling Catalog Simulations of Transient and Variable Sources Based on LSST Cadence Strategies

The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) project will conduct a 10 year multi-band survey starting in 2022. Observing strategies for this survey are being actively investigated, and the science capabilities can be best forecasted on the basis of simulated strategies from the LSST Operations Simulator (OpSim). This paper describes the way in which OpSim simulates a stochastic realization of the sequence of LSST pointings over the survey duration, and is based on a model of the observatory (including telescope) and historical data of observational conditions. OpSim outputs contain a record of each simulated pointing of the survey along with a complete characterization of the pointing in terms of observing conditions, and some useful quantities derived from the characteristics of the pointing. Thus, each record can be efficiently used to derive the properties of observations of all astrophysical sources found in that pointing. However, in order to obtain the time series of observations (light curves) of a set of sources, it is often more convenient to compute all observations of an astrophysical source, and iterate over sources. In this document, we describe the open source python package OpSimSummary, which allows for a convenient reordering. The objectives of this package are to provide users with an Application Programming Interface for accessing all such observations and summarizing this information in the form of intermediate data products usable by third party software such as SNANA, thereby also bridging the gap between official LSST products and preexisting simulation codes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

DRIVING SOLAR SPICULES AND JETS WITH MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC TURBULENCE: TESTING A PERSISTENT IDEA

The solar chromosphere contains thin, highly dynamic strands of plasma known as spicules. Recently, it has been suggested that the smallest and fastest (Type II) spicules are identical to intermittent jets observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph. These jets appear to expand out along open magnetic field lines rooted in unipolar network regions of coronal holes. In this paper we revisit a thirty-year-old idea that spicules may be caused by upward forces associated with Alfvén waves. These forces involve the conversion of transverse Alfvén waves into compressive acoustic-like waves that steepen into shocks. The repeated buffeting due to upward shock propagation causes nonthermal expansion of the chromosphere and a transient levitation of the transition region (TR). Some older models of wave-driven spicules assumed sinusoidal wave inputs, but the solar atmosphere is highly turbulent and stochastic. Thus, we model this process using the output of a time-dependent simulation of reduced magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. The resulting mode-converted compressive waves are strongly variable in time, with a higher TR occurring when the amplitudes are large and a lower TR when the amplitudes are small. In this picture, the TR bobs up and down by several Mm on timescales less than a minute. These motions produce narrow, intermittent extensions of the chromosphere that have similar properties as the observed jets and Type II spicules.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Nuclear Containment Vessel Modeling for Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment under Seismic Hazards and Concrete Degradation

The current practice for natural phenomena hazards (NPH) risk assessment of nuclear facilities is to compute the risk for each hazard independently and then compound the total risk as a combination of single hazard risks. This state of practice does not consider correlations between hazards and the cascading impacts to structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and could thus underestimate the NPH risk or overestimate the nuclear facility safety. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of multi-hazard risk considerations to nuclear power plants (NPPs) that quantify the cascading damage effects to SSCs in the risk models. Moreover, the current fleet of NPPs in the United States is aging; these NPPs are now expected to operate well beyond their initially planned design life. Aging-related deterioration can potentially decrease the capacity of critical structures such as containment vessels to withstand NPH. Such aging considerations may not be adequately accounted for by the current NPH risk assessment guidelines. This paper presents a preliminary modeling and simulation of a representative reinforced concrete containment vessel subjected to seismic mainshock and aftershock considering concrete degradation due to alkali silica reaction. The broader aim is to develop multi-hazard time-dependent fragility functions that could be subsequently used in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. The multi-hazard component comes into play due to the consideration of damage to the containment vessel under seismic loads and concrete degradation. Consideration of concrete degradation also brings into play the time-dependent nature of the containment vessel response. The response of the containment vessel under varying degrees of concrete degradation to seismic loads is investigated. The results presented are simulated using the Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) software for seismic analysis and the Blackbear software for concrete degradation and damage modeling. Both software are open source and developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-115: Using Markov Chain Modeling to Elucidate Patterns in Breast Cancer Metastasis Over Time and Space

Purpose: Traditionally, breast cancer metastasis is described as a process wherein cancer cells spread from the breast to multiple organ systems via hematogenous and lymphatic routes. Mapping organ specific patterns of cancer spread over time is essential to understanding metastatic progression. In order to better predict sites of metastases, here we demonstrate modeling of the patterned migration of metastasis. Methods: We reviewed the clinical history of 453 breast cancer patients from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center who were non-metastatic at diagnosis but developed metastasis over time. We used the variables of organ site of metastases as well as time to create a Markov chain model of metastasis. We illustrate the probabilities of metastasis occurring at a given anatomic site together with the probability of spread to additional sites. Results: Based on the clinical histories of 453 breast cancer patients who developed metastasis, we have learned (i) how to create the Markov transition matrix governing the probabilities of cancer progression from site to site; (ii) how to create a systemic network diagram governing disease progression modeled as a random walk on a directed graph; (iii) how to classify metastatic sites as ‘sponges’ that tend to only receive cancer cells or ‘spreaders’ that receive and release them; (iv) how to model the time-scales of disease progression as a Weibull probability distribution function; (v) how to perform Monte Carlo simulations of disease progression; and (vi) how to interpret disease progression as an entropy-increasing stochastic process. Conclusion: Based on our modeling, metastatic spread may follow predictable pathways. Mapping metastasis not simply by organ site, but by function as either a ‘spreader’ or ‘sponge’ fundamentally reframes our understanding of metastatic processes. This model serves as a novel platform from which we may integrate the evolving genomic landscape that drives cancer metastasis. PS-OC Trans-Network Project Grant Award for “Data Assimilation and ensemble statistical forecasting methods applied to the MSKCC longitudinal metastatic breast cancer cohort.”.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A stochastic wind turbine wake model based on new metrics for wake characterization

Abstract Understanding the detailed dynamics of wind turbine wakes is critical to predicting the performance and maximizing the efficiency of wind farms. This knowledge requires atmospheric data at a high spatial and temporal resolution, which are not easily obtained from direct measurements. Therefore, research is often based on numerical models, which vary in fidelity and computational cost. The simplest models produce axisymmetric wakes and are only valid beyond the near wake. Higher‐fidelity results can be obtained by solving the filtered Navier–Stokes equations at a resolution that is sufficient to resolve the relevant turbulence scales. This work addresses the gap between these two extremes by proposing a stochastic model that produces an unsteady asymmetric wake. The model is developed based on a large‐eddy simulation (LES) of an offshore wind farm. Because there are several ways of characterizing wakes, the first part of this work explores different approaches to defining global wake characteristics. From these, a model is developed that captures essential features of a LES‐generated wake at a small fraction of the cost. The synthetic wake successfully reproduces the mean characteristics of the original LES wake, including its area and stretching patterns, and statistics of the mean azimuthal radius. The mean and standard deviation of the wake width and height are also reproduced. This preliminary study focuses on reproducing the wake shape, while future work will incorporate velocity deficit and meandering, as well as different stability scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Doubrawa, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2013

Minimalist Model of Ice Microphysics in Mixed-phase Stratiform Clouds

The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from super cooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model, and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power law relationship with ice number concentration ni. wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation also confirm the 2.5 power law relationship. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate, and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.

clouds↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of occupant behavior and air-conditioner controls on humidity in typical and high-efficiency homes

Increasing insulation levels and improved windows are reducing sensible cooling loads in high-efficiency homes. This trend raises concerns that the resulting shift in the balance of sensible and latent cooling loads may result in higher indoor humidity, occupant discomfort, and stunted adoption of high-efficiency homes. This study utilizes established moisture-buffering and air-conditioner latent degradation models in conjunction with an approach to stochastically model internal gains. Building loads and indoor humidity levels are compared for simulations of typical new construction homes and high-efficiency homes in 10 US cities. The sensitivity of indoor humidity to changes in cooling set point, air-conditioner capacity, and blower control parameters are evaluated. The results show that high-efficiency homes in humid climates have cooling loads with a higher fraction of latent loads than the typical new construction home, resulting in higher indoor humidity. Reducing the cooling set point is the easiest method to reduce indoor humidity, but it is not energy efficient, and overcooling may lead to occupant discomfort. Eliminating the blower operation at the end of cooling cycles and reducing the cooling airflow rate also reduce indoor humidity and with a smaller impact on energy use and comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling information flow in a computer processor with a multi-stage queuing model

In this paper, we introduce a nonlinear stochastic model to describe the propagation of information inside a computer processor. In this model, a computational task is divided into stages, and information can flow from one stage to another. The model is formulated as a spatially-extended, continuous-time Markov chain where space represents different stages. This model is equivalent to a spatially-extended version of the M/M/s queue. The main modeling feature is the throttling function which describes the processor slowdown when the amount of information falls below a certain threshold. We derive the stationary distribution for this stochastic model and develop a closure for a deterministic ODE system that approximates the evolution of the mean and variance of the stochastic model. In conclusion, we demonstrate the validity of the closure with numerical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Several Small or Single Large? Quantifying the Catchment-Wide Performance of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Plants with Inaccurate Sensors

On-site wastewater treatment plants (OSTs) often lack monitoring, resulting in unreliable treatment performance. They thus appear to be a stopgap solution despite their potential contribution to circular water management. Low-maintenance but inaccurate soft sensors are emerging that address this concern. However, how their inaccuracy impacts the catchment-wide treatment performance of a system of many OSTs has not been quantified. Here, we develop a stochastic model to estimate catchment-wide OST performances with a Monte Carlo simulation. In our study, soft sensors with a 70% accuracy improved the treatment performance from 66% of the time functional to 98%. Soft sensors optimized for specificity, indicating the true negative rate, improve the system performance, while sensors optimized for sensitivity, indicating the true positive rate, quantify the treatment performance more accurately. This new insight leads us to suggest programming two soft sensors in practical settings with the same hardware sensor data as input: one soft sensor geared to high specificity for maintenance scheduling and one geared to high sensitivity for performance quantification. Our findings suggest that a maintenance strategy combining inaccurate sensors with appropriate alarm management can vastly improve the mean catchment-wide treatment performance of a system of OSTs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Curvature of the spectral energy distributions of blazars

In this paper, spectral energy distributions (SED) of both synchrotron and inverse Compton (IC) components of a sample of Fermi bright blazars are fitted by a log-parabolic law. The second-degree term of the log parabola measures the curvature of an SED. We find a statistically significant correlation between the synchrotron peak frequency and its curvature. This result is in agreement with the theoretical prediction and confirms previous studies that dealt with a single source with observations at various epochs or a small sample. If a broken power law is employed to fit the SED, the difference between the two spectral indices (i.e., |α{sub 2} – α{sub 1}|) can be considered a 'surrogate' of the SED curvature. We collect data from the literature and find a correlation between the synchrotron peak frequency and the spectral difference. We do not find a significant correlation between the IC peak frequency and its curvature, which may be caused by a complicated seed photon field. It is also found that the synchrotron curvatures are on average larger than those of IC curvatures, and there is no correlation between these two parameters. As suggested by previous works, both the log-parabolic law of the SED and the above correlation can be explained by statistical and/or stochastic particle accelerations. Based on a comparison of the slops of the correlation, our result seems to favor stochastic acceleration mechanisms and emission processes. Additional evidence, including SED modeling, particle acceleration simulation, and comparisons between some predictions and empirical relations/correlations, also seems to support the idea that the electron energy distribution (and/or synchrotron SED) may be log-parabolic.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Residential and Office Building Archetypes for Energy Efficiency Building Solutions in an Urban Scale: A China Case Study

Building energy consumption accounts for 36% of the overall energy end use worldwide and is growing rapidly as developing countries continue to urbanize. Understanding the energy use at urban scale will lay the foundation for identification of energy efficiency opportunities to be deployed at speed. China has almost half of global new constructions and plays an important role in building suitability. However, an open source national building energy consumption database is not available in China. To provide data support for building energy consumptions, this paper used a simulation method to develop an urban building energy consumption database for a pilot city in Wuhan, China. First, residential, small, and large office building archetype energy models were created in EnergyPlus to represent typical building energy consumption in Wuhan. The baseline reference model simulation results were further validated using survey data from the literature. Second, stochastic simulations were conducted to consider different design parameters and occupants’ energy usage intensity scenarios, such as thermal properties of the building envelope, lighting power density, equipment power density, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) schedule, etc. A building energy consumption database was generated for typical building archetypes. Third, data-driven regression analysis was conducted to support quick building energy consumption prediction using key high- level building information inputs. Finally, a web-based urban energy platform and an interface were developed to support further third-party application development. The research is expected to provide fast energy efficiency building design solutions for urban planning, new constructions as well as building retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Mixing WRF Setup

Documents describing how to set up simulations using a novel stochastic mixing scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Algebraic, geometric, and stochastic aspects of genetic operators

Genetic algorithms for function optimization employ genetic operators patterned after those observed in search strategies employed in natural adaptation. Two of these operators, crossover and inversion, are interpreted in terms of their algebraic and geometric properties. Stochastic models of the operators are developed which are employed in Monte Carlo simulations of their behavior.

Foo, N. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analog simulation of stochastic satellite response

A numerical study was performed on the effects of stochastic geometry and random environmental torques on the pointing accuracy of spinning and three-axis stabilized satellites. The Euler equations for the motions of satellites yielded the stochastic principal moments and a Fokker-Planck analog simulation was employed to model the response vector of a rigid satellite. White noise inputs were obtained from a random number generator. Attention was given to both fast and slow spin satellites. Responses grew with time in all cases. The growth was initially exponential and eventually reached stable values. In comparison with other theoretical techniques, the Fokker-Planck model detailed the most responses and showed that spin-stabilization is preferable for satellites with low inertial noise levels.

Huang, T. C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗