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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Wind and structural loads data measured on parabolic trough solar collectors at an operational power plant

Abstract Wind loading is a primary contributor to structural design costs of concentrating solar-thermal power collectors, such as heliostats and parabolic troughs. These structures must resist the mechanical forces generated by turbulent wind, while the reflector surfaces must maintain optimal optical performance. Studying wind-driven loads at a full-scale, operational concentrating solar-thermal power plant provides insights into the wind impact on the solar collector field beyond the capabilities of wind tunnel tests or state-of-the-art simulations. We conducted comprehensive field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions and the resulting structural wind loads on parabolic troughs at the Nevada Solar One plant over a two-year period. The measurement setup included meteorological masts and structural load sensors on four trough rows. Additionally, a lidar scanned the horizontal plane above the trough field. In this study, we describe the high-resolution dataset characterizing the complex flow field and resulting structural loads. This first-of-its-kind dataset will enhance the understanding of wind loading on collector structures and will help in designing the next-generation solar collectors and photovoltaic trackers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical reactivity under collective vibrational strong coupling

Recent experiments of chemical reactions in optical cavities have shown great promise to alter and steer chemical reactions, but still remain poorly understood theoretically. In particular, the origin of resonant effects between the cavity and certain vibrational modes in the collective limit is still subject to active research. In this paper, we study the unimolecular dissociation reactions of many molecules, collectively interacting with an infrared cavity mode, through their vibrational dipole moment. We find that the reaction rate can slow down by increasing the number of aligned molecules, if the cavity mode is resonant with a vibrational mode of the molecules. We also discover a simple scaling relation that scales with the collective Rabi splitting, to estimate the onset of reaction rate modification by collective vibrational strong coupling and numerically demonstrate these effects for up to 10 4 molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effects of Plasma Pre-Cracking on Drilling of Hard Rocks: A Single Insert Cutting Experiment

Abstract This paper studies the effects of plasma-induced cracks on rock cutting to support the concept of a plasma-integrated drag bit for accelerated geothermal drilling through hard rocks. For this, a single polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) drilling technique is used in cutting granite to compare thrust and cutting forces between plasma-treated and untreated rock samples. The cracks are produced using underwater plasma at 80 J per pulse. This energy level does not produce visible damage to the rock. The cutting tests are conducted at a cutting speed of 12.7 m/min and four feed rates of 0.127, 0.201, 0.267, and 0.414 mm/s to represent actual drilling scenarios. The results show a general trend of reduction in both thrust and cutting forces for these feed rates, but the magnitude of reduction highly depends on the feed rate. The maximum force reduction of around 50% is found at the 0.267 mm/s feed rate with statistical significance. Cases with a higher force reduction are also found to have rougher surface topography, which indicates more excessive fracturing and, thus, a cracks-accelerated material removal process. This study provides initial evidence of using underwater plasma to increase the downhole drilling rate of hard rocks.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Assembly and Phase Separation for Transport: A brief argument for the continued exploration of liquid crystal flows and electrodeposition in micro-gravity

Phase separation, interfacial tension gradients, and molecular self-assembly are all phenomena frequently observed when manipulating soft condensed matter systems on Earth. Depending on the system these processes can also be quite predictable. For instance, on Earth water droplets placed on hydrophobic surfaces will have contact angles > 90° with limited spread, contrary to their wetting behavior on hydrophilic surfaces. However, in an environment that is in a constant state of free-fall, where the gravitational field is reduced by 10%, such as on the International Space Station (ISS), buoyancy and its effect on fluid convection also become negligible. Fluid flow and phase behavior become less predictable. Thus, continuing the prior example, even if water droplets still remain in contact with a surface in microgravity (µg), the interface between the air and droplets will still remain significantly curved, appearing almost as if they were placed over completely nonwetting surfaces (Fig. 1a). Moreover, the negligible opposing buoyant force would also mean that if immiscible liquid droplets of a less dense character, or air bubbles even (Fig. 1b), were to be suspended within a larger water drop, these immiscible droplets or air bubbles would not migrate toward any one direction unless either artificially propelled by an external force or internal reaction inducing flow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Catalysis Fundamentals: I. Fast calculation of limit cycles in dynamic catalysis

Dynamic catalysis—the forced oscillation of catalytic reaction coordinate potential energy surfaces (PES)—has recently emerged as a promising method for the acceleration of heterogeneously-catalyzed reactions. Theoretical study of enhancement of rates and supra-equilibrium product yield via dynamic catalysis has, to-date, been severely limited by onerous computational demands of forward integration of stiff, coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that are necessary to quantitatively describe periodic cycling between PESs. Here, we establish a new approach that reduces, by ≳108×, the computational cost of finding the time-averaged rate at dynamic steady state (i.e. the limit cycle for linear and nonlinear systems of kinetic equations). Our developments are motivated by and conceived from physical and mathematical insight drawn from examination of a simple, didactic case study for which closed-form solutions of rate enhancement are derived in explicit terms of periods of oscillation and elementary step rate constants. Generalization of such closed-form solutions to more complex catalytic systems is achieved by introducing a periodic boundary condition requiring the dynamic steady state solution to have the same periodicity as the kinetic oscillations and solving the corresponding differential equations by linear algebra or Newton-Raphson-based approaches. The methodology is well-suited to extension to non-linear systems for which we detail the potential for multiple solutions or solutions with different periodicities. For linear and non-linear systems alike, the acute decrement in computational expense enables rapid optimization of oscillation waveforms and, consequently, accelerates understanding of the key catalyst properties that enable maximization of reaction rates, conversions, and selectivities during dynamic catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2022

System for sealing flanged connections

A flange sealing system can include a loading member layer adapted to receive a sealing force thereon, at least one intermediate member receiving the sealing force from the loading member and adapted to distribute the load force to branch members in subsequent layers, and at least one contact member adapted to apply the sealing force evenly around a flange and press a surface of the flange and against at least one of a second flange surface or a cap to seal an opening associated with the flange via at least one of connection to the second flange surface or the cap. The system can be provided in the form of a first pipe receiving section and a second pipe receiving section for securing two flanges together with associated pipes with pivot points distributed about the first and second pipe receiving section and distributing even pressure around the flanges.

Baffes, Curtis M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sodium Chemistry Assessment and Initiation of Sodium Exposure Experiment on A709 Commercial Heats and LPBF 316H SS

This report documents sodium chemistry characterization and the initiation of forced‑convection sodium exposure experiments for two structural materials for sodium‑cooled fast reactors (SFRs): Alloy 709 (solution‑annealed and with an additional 775 °C/10 h precipitation treatment) and laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel tensile specimens printed with an as‑built surface condition. The sodium exposure experiment was conducted in a forced‑convection sodium loop with two vessels operated at 550 °C and 600 °C, and a cold trap maintained at <130 °C. Carbon activity in sodium was quantified using a nickel‑foil equilibration method. Initial post‑exposure evaluation after ~1,000 h indicates negligible thickness change for Alloy 709 and a small but measurable mass decrease. To isolate thermal effects from sodium effects, parallel thermal‑aging experiments were performed on Alloy 709 at 550 °C and 600 °C. Baseline tensile tests at room temperature, 550 °C, and 600 °C show expected reduction in strength with increasing temperature and serration tensile curves at elevated temperatures, consistent with dynamic strain aging. After 3,000 h thermal aging, Alloy 709 exhibits modest strengthening and reduced ductility at 550 °C. Together, these results establish the loop chemistry conditions and provide the initial corrosion and mechanical property results for ongoing long‑duration sodium exposure of Alloy 709 and LPBF 316H stainless steel.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous mapping of nanoscale dielectric, electrochemical, and ferroelectric surface properties of van der Waals layered ferroelectric via advanced SPM

Ferroelectric surfaces involve a complex interplay between polarization and dielectric properties, internal and external surface charge screening, and ionic and electrochemical effects. There is currently no good way to simultaneously capture all the required information at appropriate length scales. To this end, we present an advanced scanning probe microscopy approach for simultaneously mapping surface potential, dielectric, and piezoelectric properties on the nanoscale. For quantitatively mapping electromechancial properties, we utilize interferometric displacement sensing piezoresponse force microscopy, which measures the effective piezoelectric coefficient free of background artifacts such as the cantilever body electrostatics. The dielectric and surface electrochemical properties are captured during G-mode electrostatic force microscopy/Kelvin probe force microscopy operated in the lift mode. We show the capabilities of this approach on the chemically phase separated composite sample consisting of a van der Waals layered ferroelectric CuInP 2 S 6 phase and a non-polar In 4/3 P 2 S 6 phase. Finally, we demonstrate domain structure evolution during thermally stimulated phase transition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Surface Terminations on the Initial Stages of TiO 2 Deposition on Functionalized Silicon

As atomic layer deposition (ALD) emerges as a method to fabricate architectures with atomic precision, emphasis is placed on understanding surface reactions and nucleation mechanisms. ALD of titanium dioxide with TiCl 4 and water has been used to investigate deposition processes in general, but the effect of surface termination on the initial TiO 2 nucleation lacks needed mechanistic insights. Here, this work examines the adsorption of TiCl 4 on Cl–, H–, and HO– terminated Si(100) and Si(111) surfaces to elucidate the general role of different surface structures and defect types in manipulating surface reactivity of growth and non-growth substrates. The surface sites and their role in the initial stages of deposition are examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Density functional theory (DFT) computations of the local functionalized silicon surfaces suggest oxygen-containing defects are primary drivers of selectivity loss on these surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2021

In situ study of Crystal Surface Interactions Guided by Biomolecules or Ligands

Ligands or biomolecules commonly exist and play a key role in particle-mediated materials growth, leading to a wide variety of structures. However, it is not fully understood how these organic molecules control forces interacting between particles and thus the dynamics of particle assembly. Herein, the overall goal of this project is to gain an understanding of the role of surface-coating materials (ligands and biomolecules) in particle assembly processes; that is, how surface-coating materials determine the interfacial structures of solvent/ligand (biomolecule)/crystal surface and thus the interaction forces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Controlling protein adsorption modes electrostatically

Protein adsorption on surfaces is ubiquitous in biology and in biotechnology. There are various forces required for controlling protein adsorption. Here, we introduce an explicit ion coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation approach for studying the effects of electrostatics on protein adsorption, and 2D protein assembly on charged surfaces. Our model accounts for the spatial distribution of protein charges. We use catalase as our model protein. We find that the preferential adsorption mode of proteins at low protein concentration on a charged surface is “standing up”. When the protein concentration in a solution increases to reach a critical density on the surface, the adsorption mode switches from “standing up” to a mixed state “flat on” and “standing up”, which increases the lateral correlations among the adsorbed proteins. As such, the changes in the adsorption mode arise from the protein adsorption that cancel the surface charge and the protein–protein repulsion. This correlated surface structure melts as the salt concentration increases because the charged surface is cancelled by the salt ions and the proteins de-adsorb. For the case of strongly charged surfaces the “standing up” conformation remains more favorable even at high protein adsorption at low salt concentrations since in that conformation the surface charge is cancelled more effectively, generating an even more laterally correlated structure. We elucidate the effects of parameters such as surface charge density, salt concentration, and protein charges on the different adsorption modes and the structure and organization of proteins on the charged surfaces. Finally, this study provides a guide for controlling protein assembly on surfaces.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Interplay Between Ferroelectricity and Electrochemical Reactivity on the Surface of Binary Ferroelectric Al x B 1–x N

Polarization dynamics and domain structure evolution in ferroelectric Al 0.93 B 0.07 N are studied using piezoresponse force microscopy and spectroscopies in ambient and controlled atmosphere environments. The application of negative unipolar and bipolar first-order reverse curve (FORC) waveforms leads to a protrusion-like feature on the Al 0.93 B 0.07 N surface and a reduction of electromechanical response due to electrochemical reactivity. A surface change is also observed on the application of fast alternating current bias. At the same time, the application of positive biases does not lead to surface changes. Comparatively in a controlled glove box atmosphere, stable polarization patterns can be observed, with minuscule changes in surface morphology. This surface morphology change is not isolated to applying biases to free surface, a similar topographical change is also observed at the electrode edges when cycling a capacitor in an ambient environment. The study suggests that surface electrochemical reactivity may have a significant impact on the functionality of this material in the ambient environment. However, even in the controlled atmosphere, the participation of the surface ions in polarization switching phenomena and ionic compensation is possible.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Superhydrophilicity of $α$-alumina surfaces results from tight binding of interfacial waters to specific aluminols

Understanding the microscopic driving force of water wetting is challenging and important for design of materials. The relations between structure, dynamics and hydrogen bonds of interfacial water can be investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. Here, contact angles at the alumina (0001) and ($11\bar{2}0$) surfaces are studied using both classical molecular dynamics simulations and experiments. To test the superhydrophilicity, the free energy cost of removing waters near the interfaces are calculated using the density fluctuations method. The strength of hydrogen bonds is determined by their lifetime and geometry. Both surfaces are superhydrophilic and the (0001) surface is more hydrophilic. Interactions between surfaces and interfacial waters promote a templating effect whereby the latter are aligned in a pattern that follows the underlying lattice of the surfaces. Translational and rotational dynamics of interfacial water molecules are slower than in bulk water. Hydrogen bonds between water and both surfaces are asymmetric, water-to-aluminol ones are stronger than aluminol-to-water ones. Molecular dynamics simulations eliminate the impacts of surface contamination when measuring contact angles and the results reveal the microscopic origin of the macroscopic superhydrophilicity of alumina surfaces: strong water-to-aluminol hydrogen bonds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Dynamic Polarization Interactions in the Electrical Double Layer at Calcite (104) Interfaces with Aqueous Solutions

Reactions at mineral interfaces with aqueous solutions control many geochemical and biogeochemical processes in the Earth’s critical zone. At the molecular level, insights into important properties such as the structure of the electrical double layer (EDL) at specific mineral interfaces continue to improve due to the increasing fidelity of laboratory instrumentation and computational approaches. However, molecular simulation approaches suffer from limited reach into relevant scales of time, length, and system complexity. To span this gap, a novel hybrid approach that couples first principle plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) with classical DFT (cDFT) is demonstrated and applied to calcite (104) interfaces with various electrolytes. In this approach, a region of interest described using DFT interacts with the surrounding medium described using cDFT to arrive at a self-consistent ground state. Benchmarking against experimental observations and entirely first principle DFT simulations demonstrates that this hybrid model efficiently encompasses the key short-range and collective interactions in the EDL. Simulations of calcite (104)/solution interfaces reveal the key static and dynamic polarization interactions that give rise to structuring of ions and water. Ion hydration interactions have the strongest effect on the depth of the first minimum in the density distribution of counterions at the surface, and the position and width of the first density peak is largely determined by the strength of ion-correlation forces. Finer details of ion distributions are controlled by mutual polarization of the calcite surface and interfacial electrolyte. Finally, this new ability to efficiently and rigorously predict EDL structure at mineral surfaces in contact with complex solutions paves the way to accurately modeling sorption, nucleation, dissolution, and growth in realistic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m −2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m −2 . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m −2 decade −1 ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗