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At least 469 records · Page 26

Process and environmental safety of thermochemical conversion of biomass

Biomass presents a promising opportunity for converting waste into valuable energy, fuels, and chemicals through various thermochemical processes, including hydrothermal carbonization, hydrothermal liquefaction, pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion. However, these processes operate under extreme conditions, introducing significant safety hazards that necessitate meticulous management to prevent accidents. This review discusses potential hazards, risk mitigation strategies, and safety management practices, emphasizing the importance of integrated safety measures into the design and operation of these processes. It also highlights the critical need for robust safety engineering and environmental management strategies tailored to each thermo-chemical process. As these processes transition from laboratory to industrial scale, there is an imperative to develop a clear and concise pathway for emerging industries to achieve regulatory compliance, achieve safety certification, and enable effective stewardship of potential fugitive emissions. By addressing safety and environmental concerns, stakeholders can optimize economic benefits, rural development, and achieve sustained domestic energy generation benefits offered by biomass conversion technologies. Further research on plant design optimization, operational safety, environmental evaluation standardization, and innovative waste management solutions will support the safe and effective scaling of these technologies, ultimately contributing to sustainable management and resource recovery.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrical Shock During Phone Assisted Troubleshooting of Laboratory Equipment

We report researchers have the potential to be exposed to a wide variety of hazards inherent to the equipment they use and maintain. When equipment does not function as expected, researchers sometimes reach out to their vendors for assistance. Early diagnostic or troubleshooting interactions between researcher and vendor are often conducted over the telephone and can lead to researchers performing work outside of their area of expertise and exposure to unknown hazards. This type of interaction significantly contributed to an incident where during diagnostic activities a researcher accidentally contacted, and discharged, a capacitor in an X-ray diffraction instrument. While this incident did not produce a serious injury, if the capacitor discharge path had occurred hand-to-hand across the heart, a serious injury may have been possible.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Acid Erosion of Carbonate Fractures and Accessibility of Arsenic-Bearing Minerals: In Operando Synchrotron-Based Microfluidic Experiment

Underground flows of acidic fluids through fractured rock can create new porosity and increase accessibility to hazardous trace elements such as arsenic. In this study, we developed a custom microfluidic cell for an in operando synchrotron experiment using X-ray attenuation. The experiment mimics reactive fracture flow by passing an acidic fluid over a surface of mineralogically heterogeneous rock from the Eagle Ford shale. Over 48 h, calcite was preferentially dissolved, forming an altered layer 200–500 μm thick with a porosity of 63–68% and surface area >10$\times$ higher than that in the unreacted shale as shown by xCT analyses. Calcite dissolution rate quantified from the attenuation data was 3 $\times$ 10 –4 mol/m 2 s and decreased to 3 $\times$ 10 –5 mol/m 2 s after 24 h because of increasing diffusion limitations. Erosion of the fracture surface increased access to iron-rich minerals, thereby increasing access to toxic metals such as arsenic. Quantification using XRF and XANES microspectroscopy indicated up to 0.5 wt % of As(-I) in arsenopyrite and 1.2 wt % of As(V) associated with ferrihydrite. This study provides valuable contributions for understanding and predicting fracture alteration and changes to the mobilization potential of hazardous metals and metalloids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Graphite Intercalation Compounds Derived by Green Chemistry as Oxygen Reduction Reaction Catalysts

Precious group metal (PGM) catalysts such as Pt supported on carbon supports are expensive catalysts utilized for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) due to their unmatched catalytic activity and durability. As an alternative, PGM-free ORR electrocatalysts that offer respectable catalytic activity are being pursued. Most of the notable PGM-free catalysts are obtained either from a bottom-up approach synthesis utilizing nitrogen-rich polymers as building blocks, or from a top down approach, where nitrogen and metal moieties are incorporated to carbonaceous matrixes. The systematic understanding of the origin of catalytic activity for either case is speculative and currently employed synthesis techniques typically generate large amounts of hazardous waste such as acids, oxidizing agents, and solvents. Herein, for the first time, we investigate the catalytic activity of graphite-based materials obtained via intercalation strategies that minimally perturb the graphitic backbone. Here, our outlined approaches demonstrate initial efforts to not only elucidate the role of each element but also significantly reduce the use of hazardous chemicals, which remains a pressing challenge. Graphite intercalation compounds (GIC) were obtained using fewer steps and solvent-free processes. X-ray diffraction and Raman results confirm the successful intercalation of FeCl 3 between graphite layers. Electrochemical data shows that the ORR performance of FeCl 3 -intercalated GIC displays slight improvement where the onset potential reaches 0.77 V vs RHE in alkaline environments. However, expansion of the graphite and solvent-free incorporation of iron and nitrogen moieties resulted in a significant increase in ORR activity with onset potential to 0.89 V vs RHE, a maximum half-wave of 0.72 V vs RHE, and a limiting current of about 2.5 mA cm –2 . We anticipate that the use of near solvent-free processes that result in a high yield of catalysts along with the fundamental insight into the origin of electrochemical activity will tremendously impact the methodologies for developing next-generation ORR catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nanohybrid of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx as a Silver-Free MXene Sorbent for Iodine Gas Capture from Nuclear Waste

The capture of volatile radioiodine from nuclear fuel reprocessing off-gas streams remains a critical challenge due to the high volatility, long half-life of 129I, and biological uptake of iodide from the environment. Although silver-based sorbents provide strong iodine chemisorption, their high cost and regulatory classification as mixed radioactive-hazardous waste motivate the development of alternative materials. Here, we report a silver-free Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene hybrid for iodine gas capture at 150 °C. Structural and compositional analyses confirm the formation of Cu2O nanoparticles on Ti3C2Tx nanosheets and their subsequent conversion to thermodynamically stable CuI upon static iodine gas exposure, achieving an iodine mass loading of up to 1115 mg/g. These results demonstrate the potential of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene as a copper-based alternative to silver sorbents for elevated-temperature iodine gas capture.

iodine gas capture↗

Electrolyte Engineering for Efficient Electrochemical Nitrate Reduction to Ammonia on a Titanium Electrode

Nitrates from agricultural runoff and industrial waste streams are a notorious waste product and hazardous pollutant. Traditional electrochemical water remediation approaches aim to solve this problem by converting nitrates to environmentally benign N 2 while minimizing the production of environmentally hazardous side products such as ammonia and nitrous oxide in a process known as “denitrification”. We modify this concept and outline an opportunity to optimize the conversion of nitrates into ammonia, which is also a key commodity product used as a fertilizer, potential fuel, and chemical precursor. The electrochemical conversion of nitrates to ammonia recycles the fixed nitrogen and offers an appealing and supplementary alternative to the energy- and resource-intensive Haber-Bosch process. In this study, we investigated the effect of varying electrochemical conditions (pH, nitrate concentration, and applied potential) on the selective reduction of nitrate to ammonia at a titanium cathode. We observed that high concentrations of both protons and nitrate ions are needed to achieve high selectivity, reaching a peak of 82% Faradaic efficiency to ammonia at an applied potential of -1 V versus RHE and a partial current density to NH 3 of -22 mA/cm 2 , using 0.4 M [NO 3 – ] at pH ~0.77. The Ti electrode, as a poor hydrogen evolution catalyst with notable corrosion resistance, provides a large window of operating conditions to achieve high selectivity in the reduction of nitrate anions. Stability of the system was evaluated, and we found a high Faradaic efficiency throughout the course of an 8 h experiment. After electrochemical testing, titanium hydride was observed at the cathode surface. We also show a preliminary technoeconomic study, indicating that it may be feasible to employ an electrochemical strategy for the production of ammonium nitrate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s

Abstract Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade‐study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Interacting Effects of Watershed and Coastal Processes on the Evolution of Compound Flooding During Hurricane Irene

Abstract In low‐lying estuarine regions, compound flooding (CF) is caused by the co‐occurrence of extreme precipitation, river flooding and storm surge. In recent decades, there has been a rise in the frequency and intensity of pluvial‐coastal CF events in different parts of the U.S. due to the increased frequency of intense precipitation and storm surge events. However, in estuarine and deltaic regions, the CF characteristics depend mainly on the storm tide and river flow interaction. Understanding how the fluvial‐coastal CF may respond to changes to watershed and estuarine characteristics is essential for future CF hazard prediction. This study examined two critical processes: (a) the interplay between antecedent soil moisture conditions and peak river flow, and (b) how the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and river flood distribution alters the CF in complex estuaries. As the study area, we selected the Delaware Bay and River, a shallow and convergent estuary in the US Mid‐Atlantic region—where flood hazards during a CF can become more significant than the surge and river flood processes occurring in isolation. For the focal event for the study, we selected Hurricane Irene (2011) because it reportedly produced the most extreme CF over the past two decades in the same region. Ultimately, our results illustrated that the potential changes to the catchment and bay characteristics from the global temperature increase and SLR could significantly modulate the fluvial‐coastal CF variability. The potential increase in global temperature and rainfall intensity might not always exacerbate the CF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record-breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show non-monotonic changes of the space-time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20~40 % or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non-monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100-1000 km 2 ) and temporal scales (less than 6 hours) rather than over the entire domain (~10 4 km 2 ) and aggregated over the storm duration (around two days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Furthermore, atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short-duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Characterization of a Toppling Rock Slab From Array-Based Ambient Vibration Measurements and Numerical Modal Analysis

Accurate assessments of the internal structure and boundary conditions of unstable rock slopes are imperative for evaluating landslide hazard scenarios. However, instability characterization at depth remains challenging and is often limited by costly or invasive subsurface investigations. Here, we develop a new approach coupling array-based ambient vibration modal analysis and numerical modeling to improve structural characterization of rock slope instabilities at depth. We used ambient noise cross-correlation on 4 hr of seismic data recorded by an array of 30 nodal geophones at a 500-m-long toppling rock slab in Utah, USA to identify modal frequencies between 0.8 and 3.5 Hz and derive modal displacements. We show that transverse and longitudinal bending modes span the length of the instability, indicating an interconnected slab. Further, statistical comparison of field results with outputs from >1,000 finite element models with varying boundary conditions showed that the instability depth varies between 40–70 and 10–20 m in the middle and lateral regions, respectively. Our approach yields new information on the structural conditions of rock cliff and column instabilities at depth, which is not easily obtained by other means but is imperative for change detection monitoring and improved hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗

Multi‐Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A Risk‐Based Framework for Expanding Flood Sensor Networks

In coupled human and natural systems, developing an observation strategy which maximizes insight into both the natural system and the human system is a challenging multi-objective optimization problem. In this article, we describe the expansion of a flood risk observation system in Southeast Texas designed to improve our understanding of both physical and socioeconomic exposure to hydrological hazards at fine spatial scales, in the context of a structured hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework. We describe a new approach for assessing the spatial extent through which a flood sensor's observations can be assumed to be relevant, and estimate the population served within each sensor's area of information using downscaled socio-demographic data. As hydrological observations and modeling move to ever finer scale, assessing the information they contain in the context of both social and natural systems becomes increasingly important for developing actionable scientific insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗