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At least 469 records · Page 26

An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3)

Abstract. Predicting future climate change over a region of complex terrain, such as the western United States (US), remains challenging due to the low resolution of global climate models (GCMs). Yet the climate extremes of recent years in this region, such as floods, wildfires, and drought, are likely to intensify further as climate warms, underscoring the need for high-quality and high-resolution predictions. Here, we present an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations over the western US from 1980–2100 at 9 km grid spacing, driven by 16 latest-generation GCMs. This dataset is titled the Western US Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3). We describe the challenges of producing WUS-D3, including GCM selection and technical issues, and we evaluate the simulations' realism by comparing historical results to temperature and precipitation observations. The future downscaled climate change signals are shaped in physically credible ways by the regional model's more realistic coastlines and topography. (1) The mean warming signals are heavily influenced by more realistic snowpack. (2) Mean precipitation changes are often consistent with wetting on the windward side of mountain complexes, as warmer, moister air masses are uplifted orographically during precipitation events. (3) There are large fractional precipitation increases on the lee side of mountain complexes, leading to potentially significant changes in water resources and ecology in these arid landscapes. (4) Increases in precipitation extremes are generally larger than in the GCMs, driven by locally intensified atmospheric updrafts tied to sharper, more realistic gradients in topography. (5) Changes in temperature extremes are different from what is expected by a shift in mean temperature and are shaped by local atmospheric dynamics and land surface feedbacks. Because of its high resolution, comprehensiveness, and representation of relevant physical processes, this dataset presents a unique opportunity to evaluate societally relevant future changes in western US climate.

Rahimi, Stefan (ORCID:0000000331884462)↗

Air temperature, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, July 15-17, 2022

Air temperature measured at 15 minute intervals using a HOBO 64K Pendant UA-001-64 housed in a solar radiation shield. Data were collected 15-27 July 2022, on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. The data package files are in .csv format, and include a data file and metadata file. These data were collected in support of stomatal response gas exchange measurements collected during this time period. See related data packages for leaf gas exchange data, leaf trait data (leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen concentration), and phenocamera images collected at the same time and location. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Framework Simulates Utility-Scale Wind Plant in Its Natural Environment. First-ever simulation could lead to a vital understanding of wind plant performance

Wind plant performance depends on local environmental conditions—and understanding those conditions is crucial to research on wind plant dynamics. Factors such as sloping terrain, surface type and cover, atmospheric heating and cooling, and weather events all play a role in determining the winds that turbines convert into power. However, most models used for wind plant design and operation do not sufficiently account for environmental effects. This can limit our understanding of wind plant dynamics and, thus, our ability to design, site, and operate wind plants for maximum power production and reliability. To meet this challenge, Arthur and other LLNL researchers partnered with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Colorado, Boulder; and Texas Tech University to develop and demonstrate a novel, mesoscale-tomicroscale wind plant modeling framework.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Silicon Dioxide Deposited Using Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition for Improved Adhesion and Water Intrusion Resistance for Lightweight Manufacturing

This work aims to demonstrate the barrier coating, and adhesion promoting properties of silica-based coatings deposited using an atmospheric pressure plasma torch (APPT). This is achieved by applying an industrial grade adhesive to silica thin films deposited, on the surfaces to be joined, using atmospheric pressure plasma chemical vapor deposition (APP-CVD), to make single joint lap shear samples of different metal combinations commonly found in lightweight manufacturing such as aluminum and magnesium as well as steel. To deposit these thin films, two separate silicon based organic precursors, hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDSO), and tetraehylorthosilicate (TEOS), are used. Here, samples are bonded using DuPont Betamate 1486 adhesive, and the lap shear results for these films are compared to the lap shear results of a chemically cleaned control using the same adhesive. The APPT uses a microwave power supply and gas mixtures of N 2 and Ar. The adhesion of the films are tested using lap shear, and elevated temperature water soaks are conducted on the joints as well to simulate environmental exposure. Lap shear results from samples with silica thin films max shear stress are 25%-115% increase compared to control samples depending on material. After exposure to water soak the max shear strength of the joints decreased by less than 15%, which demonstrates the films capabilities as a water barrier. Film morphology is examined using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and the film’s composition and approximate thickness are obtained using Rutherford Backscattering Spectroscopy (RBS).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical Passivation of Crystalline Si by Al 2 O 3 Deposited Using Atomic Layer Deposition: Implications for Solar Cells

The atomistic-level mechanism for the chemical passivation of the monocrystalline Si (c-Si) surface with thermally annealed Al 2 O 3 was studied using in situ infrared spectroscopy and photoconductance decay measurements. Al 2 O 3 was deposited on high-lifetime, float-zone c-Si substrates using atomic layer deposition (ALD) from trimethylaluminum (TMA), and H 2 O or O 3 . Surface-sensitive attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to monitor the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface, as well as the bulk of the Al 2 O 3 film during the entire process. Our results show that some surface Si–H bonds are preserved after the ALD of Al 2 O 3 on H-terminated Si. During the annealing step at 400 °C, restructuring occurs at the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface to form interfacial SiO x . Isotope labeling was used to differentiate interfacial SiD bonds on the c-Si surface from H incorporated in Al 2 O 3 . Within the sensitivity of our infrared setup (~10 13 cm –2 ), we did not observe any net migration of atomic H or D from Al 2 O 3 to the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface. To isolate the effects of chemical and field-effect passivation of Al 2 O 3 thin films, we carried out surface passivation studies on c-Si/SiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 stacks. We also annealed these stacks in different atmospheres to test the influence of annealing atmospheres on the chemical passivation of c-Si by Al 2 O 3 and observed that O 2 -containing atmosphere led to the best surface chemical passivation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparing measurements of the mixing layer height to modeled values

The mixing layer height (MLH) is the top layer of turbulent mixing within the lower atmosphere, above the Earth’s surface. Estimates of the mixing layer height allow us to determine the volume available for the dispersion of pollutants throughout the atmosphere. Our goal is to identify the most suitable mixing layer height input for our dispersion modeling tool (AERMOD). For this project we evaluated two different methods of estimating the local mixing layer height. First, we use 3 estimates of the mixing layer height obtained from a ceilometer, each height estimate corresponds to a different gradient in aerosol backscatter which is used as a proxy for mixing layer height identification. Second, we use AERMET, our AERMOD modeling system preprocessor for meteorological data, which estimates the mixing layer height using several equations combined with measured meteorological data. We evaluate the ceilometer and AERMET estimates over a 5-year period (2015-2019) to see how well aligned the estimated mixing layer heights are. Our results suggest that our model, AERMET, is on average, aligned with ceilometer estimates during the daytime hours. However, daily maximum MLH estimates by AERMET occur earlier in the day than those estimated by the ceilometer. We believe that the ceilometer struggles with accurately measuring the MLH during nighttime hours as a result of sensor limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improvement of Atmospheric Objective Analysis Over Sloping Terrain and Its Impact on Shallow-Cumulus Clouds in Large-Eddy Simulations

Surface topography strongly impacts the regional atmospheric circulation dynamically and thermodynamically. Over the Great Plains in the United States, the gently tilted slope is an important factor that impacts clouds, convection and regional circulations. This study enhances an atmospheric constrained variational analysis by using a terrain-following sigma vertical coordinate and applies to the data collected at the Southern Great Plain (SGP) site of the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Sensitivity studies are performed to examine the impact of the terrain effects on the derived large-scale atmospheric forcing fields and the simulated shallow-cumulus clouds in large-eddy simulation (LES) driven by the forcing. We found that the terrain impacts on the large-scale forcing fields are mainly at lower levels and are strongly controlled by up/downslope winds. The response of the derived forcing to the slope of the terrain is monotonic, but the response of the simulated shallow-cumulus clouds is more complex and depends on several factors. Overall, the terrain impact is small over SGP due to the small slope angle. However, the flat-surface assumption may cause larger biases in the large-scale forcing fields at locations with steeper terrain. The new sigma-coordinate algorithm, with its consideration of surface slope, should be more suitable to derive large-scale objective analysis over regions with steep terrain for application to force single-column models, cloud resolving models and LES models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

Impact of Seasonal Snow-Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High-Altitude Mountain Valley

The structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. We use data from three passive ground-based infrared spectrometers deployed in the East River Valley in Colorado's Rocky Mountains to investigate the response of the thermal ABL structure to changes in surface energy balance during the seasonal transition from low to high snow cover. Temperature profiles were retrieved from the infrared radiances using the optimal estimation physical retrieval Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation. A nocturnal surface inversion formed in the valley during clear-sky days, which was subsequently mixed out during daytime with the development of a convective boundary layer when snow cover was low. Over high snow cover, a very shallow convective boundary layer formed, above which the inversion persisted through the daytime hours. We compare these observations to NOAA's operational High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh model and find large warm biases on clear-sky days resulting from the model's inability to form strong nocturnal inversions and to maintain the stable stratification in the valley during daytime when there was snow on the ground. We suggest several factors contributing to the large model errors. These are (a) the inability of the model to represent well-developed thermally driven flows likely due to the too coarse horizontal grid spacing (3 km), (b) too much convective mixing during daytime, and (c) too strong vertical coupling between the valley atmosphere and the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wave ripples formed in ancient, ice-free lakes in Gale crater, Mars

Symmetrical wave ripples identified with NASA’s Curiosity rover in ancient lake deposits at Gale crater provide a key paleoclimate constraint for early Mars: At the time of ripple formation, climate conditions must have supported ice-free liquid water on the surface of Mars. These features are the most definitive examples of wave ripples on another planet. The ripples occur in two stratigraphic intervals within the orbitally defined Layered Sulfate Unit: a thin but laterally extensive unit at the base of the Amapari member of the Mirador formation, and a sandstone lens within the Contigo member of the Mirador formation. In both locations, the ripples have an average wavelength of ~4.5 centimeters. Internal laminae and ripple morphology show an architecture common in wave-influenced environments where wind-generated surface gravity waves mobilize bottom sediment in oscillatory flows. Their presence suggests formation in a shallow-water (<2 meters) setting that was open to the atmosphere, which requires atmospheric conditions that allow stable surface water.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Evaluating Implementations of the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The terrain-following coordinate system used by many atmospheric models can cause numerical instabilities due to discretization errors as resolved terrain slopes increase and the grid becomes highly skewed. The immersed boundary (IB) method, which does not require the grid to conform to the terrain, has been shown to alleviate these errors, and has been used successfully for high-resolution atmospheric simulations over steep terrain, including vertical building surfaces. Since many previous applications of IB methods to atmospheric models have used very fine grid resolution (5 m or less), the present study seeks to evaluate IB method performance over a range of grid resolutions and aspect ratios. Two classes of IB algorithms, velocity reconstruction and shear stress reconstruction, are tested within the common framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Performance is evaluated in two test cases, one with flat terrain and the other with the topography of Askervein Hill, both under neutrally stratified conditions. WRF-IB results are compared to similarity theory, observations, and native WRF results. Despite sensitivity to the location at which the IB intersects the model grid, the velocity reconstruction IB method shows consistent performance when used with a hybrid RANS/LES surface scheme. The shear stress reconstruction IB method is not sensitive to the grid intersection, but is less consistent and near-surface velocity errors can occur at coarse resolutions. This study represents an initial investigation of IB method variability across grid resolutions in WRF. Future work will focus on improving IB method performance at intermediate to coarse resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive numerical modeling of plasma-induced surface roughness and wettability evolution in LM-PAEK/CF tape

Plasma surface modification effectively enhances adhesion in thermoplastic composites, yet its impacts on high-performance polymers like low-melting polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK) remain inadequately quantified. Here, this study integrates experimental analysis and numerical modeling to characterize surface roughness and wettability changes in LM-PAEK/carbon fiber composites treated with atmospheric plasma. Atomic Force Microscopy quantified surface topography (n = 10 per condition for contact angles), while static contact-angle assessments measured wettability. Roughness rapidly increased from ∼0.2 nm to 1.6 nm, and contact angle reduced from ∼90° to 24°, both stabilizing after 25–30 s of exposure. A semi-empirical, physics-informed framework was calibrated to these data, coupling surface chemistry via the Owens–Wendt decomposition with topography via the Wenzel roughness factor, and evaluated using out-of-sample (cross-validated) tests, while static contact angle assessments measured wettability. Numerical predictions matched experimental results closely (RMSE <5%, R 2 > 0.95). Incorporating material-specific parameters, the calibrated model supports plasma-treatment optimization and provides quantitative guidance for improving interfacial adhesion in thermoplastic composite manufacturing.

Atomic Force Microscopy↗

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Editorial: Resolving atmospheric flow in complex environments: recent experiments in terrain and forest canopies

The characterization of atmospheric flows in complex environments, which may include steep terrain slopes and heterogeneous vegetation and/or forest cover, is a long-standing challenge in boundary-layer meteorology. Atmospheric observations are complicated by the presence of transient, terrain-induced flow features, forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric stability effects, not to mention the logistical hurdles involved with instrument deployment, data analysis, and quality control. Furthermore, challenges in atmospheric modeling arise due to numerical errors associated with complex terrain flows, as well as reliance on simplified parameterizations for unresolved processes such as turbulent mixing and land-surface or forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions. These modeling challenges are exacerbated in the so-called “gray zone,” wherein features of interest have length scales that are similar to the model grid spacing, or when the principal flow layer is smaller than the grid spacing (e.g., slope flows).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗