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At least 469 records · Page 26

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Seasonal variation of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing over the globe derived from satellite data

Global distributions of surface and atmospheric cloud radiative forcing parameters have been derived using parameterized radiation models with satellite meteorological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, and directly measured top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Specifically, shortwave, longwave, and total cloud forcing at the surface, and column-averaged values of longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere were derived for the midseasonal months of April, July, and October 1985 and January 1986, covering a complete annual cycle. Seasonal variability is illustrated by comparing the results for July 1985 and January 1986, which represent the seasonal extremes. Surface shortwave cloud forcing is always negative, representing a cooling of the surface, with strongest cooling (-120 to -180 W/sq m) occurring over midlatitude storm tracks of the summer hemisphere. Surface longwave cloud forcing is always positive, representing a warming of the surface, with strongest warming (60 to 75 W/sq m) occurring over storm tracks of the winter hemisphere. Zonal averages show the entire summer hemisphere dominated by shortwave cooling, the middle and high latitudes of the winter hemisphere dominated by longwave warming, and a broad zone of transition in between. The globally averaged total cloud forcing amounts to a cooling throughout the year, ranging from a low of about -12 W/sq m for July 1985 to a high of about -25 W/sq m for January 1986. The longwave cloud forcing of the atmosphere shows a strong warming over deep convective regions in the tropics and a moderate cooling outside the tropics, amounting to a weak cooling (-2 to -5 W/sq m) in the global average. Comparisons of the results with general circulation model simulations show broad qualitative agreement regarding the locations of prominent warming and cooling regions. Quantitative comparisons, on the other hand, show significant differences between the magnitudes of warming and cooling in these regions. Most of the larger differences can be attributed to known deficiences of the general circulation model simulations. Comparisons with satellite-derived results of other investigators show much better agreement.

Gupta, Shashi K.↗

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Shukla, J.↗

Nonlinear influence of mesoscale land use on weather and climate

It is shown that the influence of mesoscale landscape spatial variability on the atmosphere must be parameterized or explicitly modeled in larger-scale atmospheric model simulations including general circulation models. The mesoscale fluxes of heat that result from this variability are shown to be of the same order of magnitude but with a different vertical structure than found for the turbulent fluxes. These conclusions are based on experiments in which no phase changes of water were permitted. To parameterize surface thermal inhomogeneities, the influence of landscape must be evaluated using spectral analysis or an equivalent procedure. To include the nonlinear contribution of each scale, numerical model simulations for the range of observed surface and overlying atmospheric conditions must be performed.

Pielke, R. A.↗

Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Slingo, Julia↗

Modeling the Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Models of the general circulation and climate system of Mars have reached a high level of maturity, but observations to validate them have lacked the kind of global and temporal coverage required. However, we are now on the verge of a new era in Mars exploration as Mars Global Surveyor, and the now enroute Mars Climate Orbiter, will provide daily global coverage of the atmosphere for two Mars years. In the coming years, data from these missions will test the predictions of general circulation models (GCM's) whose results have perhaps become too accepted as truth. This talk will review what GCM's tell us about Mars, what their weaknesses are, and what the latest results imply for their future. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Winter Storm Zones on Mars

Preferred regions of weather activity in Mars' winter middle latitudes-so called 'storm zones' are found in a general circulation model of Mars' atmospheric circulation. During northern winter, these storm zones occur in middle latitudes in the major planitia (low-relief regions) of the western and eastern hemisphere. In contrast, the highlands of the eastern hemisphere are mostly quiescent. Compared to Earth's storm zones where diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrasts is crucial, orography on Mars is fundamental to the regionalization of weather activity. Future spacecraft missions aimed at assessing Mars' climate and its variability need to include such regions in observation strategies.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

Summary of Cumulus Parameterization Workshop

A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Global Cloud-Resolving Models

Global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs) are a new category of atmospheric global models designed to solve different flavors of the nonhydrostatic equations through the use of kilometer-scale global meshes. GCRMs make it possible to explicitly simulate deep convection, thereby avoiding the need for cumulus parameterization and allowing for clouds to be “resolved” by microphysical models responding to grid-scale forcing. GCRMs require high-resolution discretization over the globe, for which a variety of mesh structures have been proposed and employed. The first GCRM was constructed 15 years ago, and in recent years, other groups have also begun adopting this approach, enabling the first intercomparison studies of such models. Because conventional general circulation models (GCMs) suffer from large biases associated with cumulus parameterization, GCRMs are attractive tools for researchers studying global weather and climate. In this review, GCRMs are described, with some emphasis on their historical development and the associated literature documenting their use. The advantages of GCRMs are presented, and currently existing GCRMs are listed and described. Future prospects for GCRMs are also presented in the final section.

Satoh, Masaki↗

Thermosphere-ionosphere coupling - An experiment in interactive modeling

Using the NCAR thermosphere general circulation model, a series of controlled experiments is performed to investigate the interactive coupling between ionospheric plasma densities and thermospheric neutral winds. The interaction is accomplished by parameterizing the F layer peak height, h(m)F2, in an empirical ionospheric model in terms of the meridional wind, v(south), and by forcing the h(m)F2 and the v(south) parameters to remain mutually coupled in a dynamical calculation. It was found that mutual coupling between forcing and meridional wind is weak during the daytime when the F layer exhibits a broad vertical structure. At night, when the F2 layer is more localized, the neutral dynamical structure is dependent on whether forcing is significantly above or below the altitude (about 275-300 km) at which ion drag effectively competes with viscosity in the neutral momentum balance.

Forbes, Jeffrey M.↗

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

A daily climatology of the atmospheric circulation of the Arctic and the associated cloud conditions were determined. These are used for comparisons with the variability of general circulation model, generated circulation, and cloud cover for the same region.

Barry, R. G.↗

Comparative Accuracies of Models for Drag Prediction During Geomagnetically Disturbed Periods: A First Principles Model Versus Empirical Models

We examine the accuracy of density prediction by the first principles model Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and compare it to the accuracy of three empirical models: Jacchia 71, the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Extended 2000 (NRLMSIS), Jacchia 1971, and Jacchia-Bowman 2008. Comparisons are made for three large storms: the October 2003 storm, the March 2013 storm, and the March 2015 storm. To evaluate the accuracy of these models we use tracking data for nine space objects in low Earth orbit. Additionally, we evaluate the accuracy of the TIEGCM and NRLMSIS with data from high precision accelerometers on the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity field and Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellites. The goal is to assess the use of a first principles model as a potential tool for forecasting satellite drag during large magnetic storms. For the storms considered, we found the TIEGCM, JB2008, and NRLMSIS models to be substantially more accurate than the Jacchia 71 model. The accuracies of the TIEGCM and JB2008 models were similar, but overall, the TIEGCM was more accurate. We found smaller differences for TIEGCM versus CHAMP than for NRLMIS for the Halloween Storm, and smaller differences than results published for JB2008 and the assimilative model HASDM. The empirical models are at present more practical for operational purposes, but the TIEGCM, developed as a research model, with a greater focus on operational use offers the potential for improved utility during stressing conditions.

R. L. Walterscheid↗

(abstract) Using TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Observations to Test the Sensitivity of an Ocean Model to Wind Forcing

It has been demonstrated that current-generation global ocean general circulation models (OGCM) are able to simulate large-scale sea level variations fairly well. In this study, a GFDL/MOM-based OGCM was used to investigate its sensitivity to different wind forcing. Simulations of global sea level using wind forcing from the ERS-1 Scatterometer and the NMC operational analysis were compared to the observations made by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) radar altimeter for a two-year period. The result of the study has demonstrated the sensitivity of the OGCM to the quality of wind forcing, as well as the synergistic use of two spaceborne sensors in advancing the study of wind-driven ocean dynamics.

forcing radar altimeter global sea level↗

The Impact of ARM on Climate Modeling

Climate models are among humanity's most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability, and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of the Earth down to one hundred kilometers or smaller, and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. The atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). In an AGCM, calculations are done on a three-dimensional grid, which in some of today's climate models consists of several million grid cells. For each grid cell, about a dozen variables are time-stepped as the model integrates forward from its initial conditions. These so-called prognostic variables have special importance because they are the only things that a model remembers from one time step to the next; everything else is recreated on each time step by starting from the prognostic variables and the boundary conditions. The prognostic variables typically include information about the mass of dry air, the temperature, the wind components, water vapor, various condensed-water species, and at least a few chemical species such as ozone. A good way to understand how climate models work is to consider the lengthy and complex process used to develop one. Lets imagine that a new AGCM is to be created, starting from a blank piece of paper. The model may be intended for a particular class of applications, e.g., high-resolution simulations on time scales of a few decades. Before a single line of code is written, the conceptual foundation of the model must be designed through a creative envisioning that starts from the intended application and is based on current understanding of how the atmosphere works and the inventory of mathematical methods available.

atmospheric circulation↗

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗