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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advocating Feedback Control for Human-Earth System Applications

This paper proposes a feedback control perspective for Human-Earth Systems (HESs) which essentially are complex systems that capture the interactions between humans and nature. Recent attention in HES research has been directed towards devising strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, aimed at achieving environmental and societal objectives. However, existing approaches heavily rely on HES models, which inherently suffer from inaccuracies due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, overly detailed models often prove impractical for optimization tasks. We propose a framework inheriting from feedback control strategies the robustness against model errors, because inaccuracies are mitigated using measurements retrieved from the field. The framework comprises two nested control loops. The outer loop computes the optimal inputs to the HES, which are then implemented by actuators controlled in the inner loop. Potential fields of applications are also identified and a numerical example is provided.

biological system modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Research to Reality -- Challenges and Opportunities in Complex System Design

The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.

Ian Levitt↗
NASA NTRS1979

SAINT: A combined simulation language for modeling man-machine systems

SAINT (Systems Analysis of Integrated Networks of Tasks) is a network modeling and simulation technique for design and analysis of complex man machine systems. SAINT provides the conceptual framework for representing systems that consist of discrete task elements, continuous state variables, and interactions between them. It also provides a mechanism for combining human performance models and dynamic system behaviors in a single modeling structure. The SAINT technique is described and applications of the SAINT are discussed.

Seifert, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A LEAST ABSOLUTE SHRINKAGE AND SELECTION OPERATOR (LASSO) FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION

Identification of parametric nonlinear models involves estimating unknown parameters and detecting its underlying structure. Structure computation is concerned with selecting a subset of parameters to give a parsimonious description of the system which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of a 1 penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. The performance of this LASSO structure detection method was evaluated by using it to estimate the structure of a nonlinear polynomial model. Applicability of the method to more complex systems such as those encountered in aerospace applications was shown by identifying a parsimonious system description of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Schedule Risks Due to Delays in Advanced Technology Development

This paper discusses a methodology and modeling capability that probabilistically evaluates the likelihood and impacts of delays in advanced technology development prior to the start of design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) of complex space systems. The challenges of understanding and modeling advanced technology development considerations are first outlined, followed by a discussion of the problem in the context of lunar surface architecture analysis. The current and planned methodologies to address the problem are then presented along with sample analyses and results. The methodology discussed herein provides decision-makers a thorough understanding of the schedule impacts resulting from the inclusion of various enabling advanced technology assumptions within system design.

Reeves, John D. Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging a Neural Network-Enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Multiphysics Degradation Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials exhibit strong electro-chemo-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties, contributing to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling and resulting in reduced performance and service life. A coupled electro-chemo-mechanical reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) formulation has been developed to analyze this system. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), pixel-based model construction by RKPM is used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electro-chemo-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in meshing such complex geometries and capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. Here, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1, 2] is introduced to effectively model damage and crack propagation in the material microstructures; the location, orientation, and solution transition near a localization are automatically captured by superimposed block-level NN optimizations. This NN enrichment approach allows for effective modeling of localizations via a fixed background discretization, relieving tedious efforts for adaptive refinement in traditional mesh-based methods. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. NN-RKPM is additionally used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure. Reference: [1] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, pp 4422-4454, https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040, 2022. [2] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., "A Neural Network-Based Enrichment of Reproducing Kernel Approximation for Modeling Brittle Fracture", Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering Vol. 410, 116590, 2024.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2025

CHARMM-GUI Bicelle Builder : An Extension of Membrane Builder for Modeling and Simulation of Bicelle Systems

Membrane mimetics, such as detergent micelles, nanodiscs, and amphipol complexes, which can provide membrane-like environments while retaining small and soluble features, have been utilized to study membrane proteins. A bicelle, composed of varying lipids and detergents, is a useful membrane mimetic because the lipid-to-detergent ratio, the q-value, can be adjusted to alter the properties of the aggregate, including the thickness and size of the bicelle. However, building a bicelle model for modeling and simulation studies requires nontrivial efforts, even for experts. We introduce CHARMM-GUI Bicelle Builder, a web-based platform that can generate various all-atom bicelle systems via a graphical user interface with all available lipids and detergents in Membrane Builder. To illustrate and validate Bicelle Builder with practical systems, we have modeled and simulated pure bicelles consisting of 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DMPC) lipids with 1,2-dihexanoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (C6DHPC) detergents and protein–bicelle complexes, composed of DMPC with C6DHPC, foscholine-10 (FOS10), and lysophosphatidylcholine-12 (LPC12) detergents. Our simulation results indicate that Bicelle Builder can generate reliable and robust bicelle models with and without proteins that retain DMPC bilayer characteristics. Bicelle Builder is expected to help researchers better understand not only bicelles themselves but also atomistic-level structures of protein–bicelle complexes that are often difficult to access through experimental approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thermal Model Development for an X-Ray Mirror Assembly

Space-based x-ray optics require stringent thermal environmental control to achieve the desired image quality. Future x-ray telescopes will employ hundreds of nearly cylindrical, thin mirror shells to maximize effective area, with each shell built from small azimuthal segment pairs for manufacturability. Thermal issues with these thin optics are inevitable because the mirrors must have a near unobstructed view of space while maintaining near uniform 20 C temperature to avoid thermal deformations. NASA Goddard has been investigating the thermal characteristics of a future x-ray telescope with an image requirement of 5 arc-seconds and only 1 arc-second focusing error allocated for thermal distortion. The telescope employs 135 effective mirror shells formed from 7320 individual mirror segments mounted in three rings of 18, 30, and 36 modules each. Thermal requirements demand a complex thermal control system and detailed thermal modeling to verify performance. This presentation introduces innovative modeling efforts used for the conceptual design of the mirror assembly and presents results demonstrating potential feasibility of the thermal requirements.

x ray optics↗
NASA NTRS1996

Integrated Modeling Methodology Validation Using the Micro-Precision Interferometer Testbed

This paper validates the integrated modeling methodology used for design and performance evaluation of complex opto-mechanical systems, particularly spaceborne interferometers. The methodology integrates structural modeling, optical modeling, and control system design into a common environment, the Integrated Modeling of Optical Systems (IMOS) software package.

opto-mechanical↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frontiers in divalent $f$-block chemistry

Divalent f-block chemistry has undergone rapid expansion in recent years, driven by advances in the stabilization of low-valent lanthanide and actinide complexes. Although f-elements were historically accessed in the +3 or higher oxidation states, the isolation of +2 species has revealed unusual spectroscopic signatures, distinct bonding motifs, and multiple accessible electronic configurations that influence their chemical and physical properties. These developments have generated opportunities in areas including quantum information science, molecular magnetism, catalysis, and luminescence. Computational chemistry has played a pivotal role in interpreting the electronic structure and reactivity of these systems. However, accurately modeling divalent f-block complexes remains challenging because of strong electronic correlation, multiconfigurational character, and the presence of close-in-energy competing electronic states. As experimental capabilities and theoretical methodologies continue to advance, a comprehensive assessment of divalent chemistry is both timely and needed. In this Review, we integrate experimental and theoretical perspectives to provide a systematic analysis of divalent lanthanide and actinide complexes across the f-block series. We critically assess the role of ligands in determining competing ground-state configurations (f n d 1 vs. f n+1 ) resulting in their distinct spectroscopic, magnetic, and bonding properties. Finally, we discuss emerging strategies for predictive modeling and rational design of low-valent f-block molecular systems, with potential applications ranging from dinitrogen reduction to quantum technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments

Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Algorithm for Integrated Subsystem Embodiment and System Synthesis

Consider the statement,'A system has two coupled subsystems, one of which dominates the design process. Each subsystem consists of discrete and continuous variables, and is solved using sequential analysis and solution.' To address this type of statement in the design of complex systems, three steps are required, namely, the embodiment of the statement in terms of entities on a computer, the mathematical formulation of subsystem models, and the resulting solution and system synthesis. In complex system decomposition, the subsystems are not isolated, self-supporting entities. Information such as constraints, goals, and design variables may be shared between entities. But many times in engineering problems, full communication and cooperation does not exist, information is incomplete, or one subsystem may dominate the design. Additionally, these engineering problems give rise to mathematical models involving nonlinear functions of both discrete and continuous design variables. In this dissertation an algorithm is developed to handle these types of scenarios for the domain-independent integration of subsystem embodiment, coordination, and system synthesis using constructs from Decision-Based Design, Game Theory, and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization. Implementation of the concept in this dissertation involves testing of the hypotheses using example problems and a motivating case study involving the design of a subsonic passenger aircraft.

Lewis, Kemper↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of light output on the timing resolution of organic glass scintillator bars in a dual-ended readout configuration

The effectiveness of detector system modeling and validation depends on the quality of characterization performed on the system. For nuclear nonproliferation applications, which require detectors to address complex and variable field conditions, access to accurate system models is essential. This study presents the timing characterization of organic glass scintillator bars used in an imaging system developed at the University of Michigan. 137 Cs and 60 Co gamma-ray sources were used to determine the coincidence time resolution as a function of measured light output for two Compton scatter events between two organic glass scintillator bars. Timing resolution for two events, each with light output ranging from 100 to 1100 keVee were characterized. The resulting data were fit to a parametric function that was validated to agree with experimental results within ±25 ps. Simulations were performed to establish appropriate calibration points for each organic scintillator, thereby ensuring accurate calibration of light output values during analysis. This work successfully characterized the light output dependence of the coincidence timing resolution of a pair of organic glass detectors for use in an imaging system. Depending on the amount of scintillation light output from the events, the full width at half maximum of the measured coincidence time resolution ranged from 653.2 ± 16.1 ps for low light yields, 100 keVee, to 121.0 ± 8.4 ps for higher yields at 1100 keVee. The insights obtained from the timing resolution behavior will allow for accurate simulation capabilities in future security and verification efforts using scatter-based imaging systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling software systems by domains

The Software Architectures Engineering (SAE) Project at the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) has developed engineering modeling techniques that both reduce the complexity of software for domain-specific computer systems and result in systems that are easier to build and maintain. These techniques allow maximum freedom for system developers to apply their domain expertise to software. We have applied these techniques to several types of applications, including training simulators operating in real time, engineering simulators operating in non-real time, and real-time embedded computer systems. Our modeling techniques result in software that mirrors both the complexity of the application and the domain knowledge requirements. We submit that the proper measure of software complexity reflects neither the number of software component units nor the code count, but the locus of and amount of domain knowledge. As a result of using these techniques, domain knowledge is isolated by fields of engineering expertise and removed from the concern of the software engineer. In this paper, we will describe kinds of domain expertise, describe engineering by domains, and provide relevant examples of software developed for simulator applications using the techniques.

Dippolito, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison between explicit and implicit discretization strategies for a dissipative thermal environment

We investigate strategies for simulating open quantum systems coupled to dissipative baths by comparing explicit wave function-based discretization [via multi-layer multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH)] and the implicit density matrix-based master equation method [via tree tensor network hierarchical equations of motion (TTN-HEOM)]. For dissipative baths characterized by exponentially decaying bath correlation functions, the implicit discretization approach of HEOM—rooted in bath correlation function decompositions—proves significantly more efficient than explicit discretization of the bath into discrete harmonic modes. Explicit methods, like ML-MCTDH, require extensive mode discretization to approximate continuum baths, leading to computational bottlenecks. Case studies for two-level systems and a Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex model highlight TTN-HEOM’s superiority in capturing dissipative dynamics with relaxations with a minimal number of auxiliary modes, while the explicit methods are as exact as the HEOM in pure dephasing regimes. This comparison is enabled by the TENSO package, which has both ML-MCTDH and TTN-HEOM implemented using the same computational structure and propagation strategy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reliability and Productivity Modeling for the Optimization of Separated Spacecraft Interferometers

As technological systems grow in capability, they also grow in complexity. Due to this complexity, it is no longer possible for a designer to use engineering judgement to identify the components that have the largest impact on system life cycle metrics, such as reliability, productivity, cost, and cost effectiveness. One way of identifying these key components is to build quantitative models and analysis tools that can be used to aid the designer in making high level architecture decisions. Once these key components have been identified, two main approaches to improving a system using these components exist: add redundancy or improve the reliability of the component. In reality, the most effective approach to almost any system will be some combination of these two approaches, in varying orders of magnitude for each component. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question of how to divide funds, between adding redundancy and improving the reliability of components, to most cost effectively improve the life cycle metrics of a system. While this question is relevant to any complex system, this research focuses on one type of system in particular: Separate Spacecraft Interferometers (SSI). Quantitative models are developed to analyze the key life cycle metrics of different SSI system architectures. Next, tools are developed to compare a given set of architectures in terms of total performance, by coupling different life cycle metrics together into one performance metric. Optimization tools, such as simulated annealing and genetic algorithms, are then used to search the entire design space to find the "optimal" architecture design. Sensitivity analysis tools have been developed to determine how sensitive the results of these analyses are to uncertain user defined parameters. Finally, several possibilities for the future work that could be done in this area of research are presented.

Kenny, Sean↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗