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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

KIVA-hpFE: Predictive turublent reactive and multiphase flow in engines : Science Supporting Mission of the Laboratory

Research and development of KIVA-hpFE for turbulent reactive and multiphase flow particularly as related to engine modeling program has relevance to National energy security and climate change. Climate change is a source problem, and energy national security is consumption of petroleum products problem. Accurately predicting engine processes leads to, lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, where engines in the transportation sector currently account for 26% of the U.S. GHG emissions. Less dependence on petroleum products leads to greater energy security. By Environmental Protection Agency standards, some vehicles are now reaching 42 to the 50 mpg mark. These are conventional gasoline engines. Continued investment and research into new technical innovations, the potential exists to save more than 4 million barrels of oil per day or approximately $200 to $400 million per day. This would be a significant decrease in emission and use of petroleum and a very large economic stimulus too! It is estimated with further advancements in combustion, the current emissions can be reduced up to 40%. Enabling better understanding of fuel injection and fuel-air mixing, thermodynamic combustion losses, and combustion/emission formation processes enhances our ability to help solve both problems. To provide adequate capability for accurately simulating these processes, minimize time and labor for development of engine technology, are the goals of our KIVA development program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Lab Rapid Analytical Detection of Lunar Volatiles By Universal Gas Analyzer With Comparison to GC-MS System

Introduction: The curation of permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) [1] on the lunar surface is centered around studies based upon the observed volatiles from the LCROSS mission [2]. The rapid detection of important volatile gases and vapors present in planetary bodies and Astromaterials by a standalone analytical device is an area of intense research interest in our group and Planetary Exploration & Astromaterials Research Laboratory (PEARL) facility and this work is relevant to the future preparation of viable lunar simulants for testing curation efforts down the road. The groundbreaking results obtained from the LCROSS Mission [2] open the requirements for the direct detection of volatiles present in regolith materials collected from the lunar surface. The mass spectrometry of volatile chemicals is a general technique that utilizes a set of instruments that creates charged ions from a gaseous chemical species and measures the intensities vs. mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) [3]. In this context, we discuss in-lab experimental results and procedures for rapid qualitative analysis of main LCROSS volatiles (water, H2S, NH3, CO2, and CH3OH) by a Universal Gas Analyzer (UGA) instrument. Additionally, the instrument performance was evaluated by measuring the isotopic abundance ratio of atmospheric Ar-40 to Ar-36 present in room air since, argon is a relevant gas in planetary studies as it can provide an insight and reference point to isotope studies [4]. Additional, cross comparisons were attempted and made between the two instruments to develop a robust analytical technique by comparing mass spectral data for H2S headspace samples with a Trace-1310/ ISQ 7000 (ThermoFisher Scientific.) GC-MS system. Background: The benchtop UGA System is equipped with an SRS UGA 300 quadrupole mass spectrometer designed and built by Stanford Research Systems [5]. This system can be configured for several types of gaseous chemical analysis. The inlet line continuously samples gases at low flow rates (several milliliters per minute) through a capillary limiting the intake pressure making the instrument ideal for online analysis of select gases and/or room atmosphere. Moreover, in our current UGA system, a change in composition at the inlet can be detected in about 200 milliseconds and a complete spectrum is acquired (for a range of 1-100 amu) in under 45 sec with masses measured at rates up to 25 msec per point [5]. This system provides a quick upstream analytical data that we can then compare to results obtained by our GC-MS system. Sample Preparation: Small volume (2-4 mL) of analyte sample was taken in a 10 mL glass vial and sealed with a crimped cap and purged with pure Ar or N2 gas to displace air from the top. The headspace sample was scanned by the UGA instrument at analog, histogram, and pressure vs. time modes. The isotopic abundance ratio for 40Ar-to-36Ar was estimated by measuring partial pressure vs. time scans and setting the mass at 40 and 36 respectively. Results and Discussions: In this work, we have investigated the applicability of the UGA system by qualitative analysis of a series of LCROSS volatiles measured individually. Fig. 1 demonstrates a set of vertically offset spectra for the partial pressures measured as a function of mass-to-charge (m/z) ratios. The average acquisition time for each spectrum was less than a minute suggesting that the UGA system is ideal for quick analysis of geochemical volatiles. For the cross-comparison, we analyzed an H2S headspace sample by a Trace-1310/ISQ-7000 system and compared mass spectral data with previously measured UGA histogram scan data (Fig. 2). In both cases, major peak positions are the same, however, the intensities of fragment ions ([1H132S]+ and [32S]+) are higher for UGA suggesting that the fragment ionization process is stronger in UGA compared to that of GC-MS. To investigate how the integrated area under each chromatogram varies with the headspace sample volume, a set of five H2S headspace samples with increasing volumes was analyzed by the GC-MS system (Fig. 3, inset). A small volume (e.g., 200 to 1000 µL) of H2S/H2O vapor was withdrawn from a 20 mL stock sample vial containing ~5 mL of 0.4% H2S in water by a gas-tight syringe and added to another 20 mL vial filled with argon and analyzed by the GC-MS system. Finally, the UGA detector sensitivity was evaluated by calculating the atmospheric 40Ar-to-36Ar isotopic abundance ratio in room air by running a partial pressure vs. time scan with setting the atomic mass at 40, and 36. Fig. 4(a) shows a ~25 min duration “P vs. time” scan for 40Ar (plot for 36Ar is not shown). The partial pressure values (~100 points) were corrected by subtracting the corresponding background pressure value for 37Ar and utilized to calculate 40Ar-to-36Ar isotopic abundance ratios as shown by Fig. 4b. The average isotopic abundance ratio is ~306 with a 2*STDEV ~13. This abundance ratio is significantly close to the previously reported value of 298.56 [6] and the ratio obtained by our GC-MS system (303 for a UHP grade Ar sample). Conclusions: Our study strongly evidenced that the benchtop UGA system is a valuable analytical tool for the detection of major LCROSS volatiles. The rapid scanning capability, the inexpensiveness of the whole system, and impressive detection sensitivity prove its worthiness as an essential device for advanced geochemical applications. Moreover, cross comparisons with the GC-MS provide important bridges into advanced curatorial efforts into the future. References: [1] Bickel, V.T., et al. (2021) Nat Commun 12, 5607. [2] Colaprete, A., et al. (2010) Science, 330, 463-468. [3] Glavin, D. P. et al. (2012) 2012 IEEE Aerospace Conference, 1-11. [4] Willett, C. D., et al. (2022) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 329, 119-134. [5] Operation Manual and Programming Reference. (2018) Universal gas Analyzers, Stanford Research Systems. [6] Lee, J. Y., et al. (2006) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70, 4507–4512. Notes: (4 figures are attached with text as shown by the attached file)

Curation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of recoil-imaging time projection chambers to directional neutron background measurements in the SuperKEKB accelerator tunnel

Gaseous time projection chambers (TPCs) with high readout segmentation are capable of reconstructing detailed 3D ionization distributions of nuclear recoils resulting from elastic neutron scattering. Here, using a system of six compact TPCs with pixel ASIC readout, filled with a 70:30 mixture of He:CO 2 gas, we analyze the first directional measurements of beam-induced neutron backgrounds in the tunnel regions surrounding the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB e + e – collider. With the use of 3D recoil tracking, we show that these TPCs are capable of maintaining nearly 100% nuclear recoil purity to reconstructed ionization energies (E reco ) as low as 5 keV ee . Using a large sample of Monte-Carlo (MC)-simulated 4 He, 12 C, and 16 O recoil tracks, we find consistency between predicted and measured recoil energy spectra in five of the six TPCs, providing useful validation of the neutron production mechanisms modeled in simulation. Restricting this sample to 4 He recoil tracks with E reco > 40 keV ee , we further demonstrate axial angular resolutions within 8° and we introduce a procedure that under suitable conditions, correctly assigns the vector direction to 91% of these simulated 4 He recoils. Applying this procedure to assign vector directions to measured 4 He recoil tracks, we observe consistency between the angular distributions of observed and simulated recoils, providing first experimental evidence of localized neutron “hotspots” in the accelerator tunnel. Observed rates of nuclear recoils in these TPCs suggest that simulation overestimates the neutron flux from these hotspots. Despite this, we estimate these hotspots to produce the majority of neutron backgrounds in the accelerator tunnel at SuperKEKB’s target luminosity of 6.3 x 10 35 cm –2 s –1 , making them important regions to continue to monitor.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1999

On-Line Analysis of Physiologic and Neurobehavioral Variables During Long-Duration Space Missions

The goal of this project is to develop reliable statistical algorithms for on-line analysis of physiologic and neurobehavioral variables monitored during long-duration space missions. Maintenance of physiologic and neurobehavioral homeostasis during long-duration space missions is crucial for ensuring optimal crew performance. If countermeasures are not applied, alterations in homeostasis will occur in nearly all-physiologic systems. During such missions data from most of these systems will be either continually and/or continuously monitored. Therefore, if these data can be analyzed as they are acquired and the status of these systems can be continually assessed, then once alterations are detected, appropriate countermeasures can be applied to correct them. One of the most important physiologic systems in which to maintain homeostasis during long-duration missions is the circadian system. To detect and treat alterations in circadian physiology during long duration space missions requires development of: 1) a ground-based protocol to assess the status of the circadian system under the light-dark environment in which crews in space will typically work; and 2) appropriate statistical methods to make this assessment. The protocol in Project 1, Circadian Entrainment, Sleep-Wake Regulation and Neurobehavioral will study human volunteers under the simulated light-dark environment of long-duration space missions. Therefore, we propose to develop statistical models to characterize in near real time circadian and neurobehavioral physiology under these conditions. The specific aims of this project are to test the hypotheses that: 1) Dynamic statistical methods based on the Kronauer model of the human circadian system can be developed to estimate circadian phase, period, amplitude from core-temperature data collected under simulated light- dark conditions of long-duration space missions. 2) Analytic formulae and numerical algorithms can be developed to compute the error in the estimates of circadian phase, period and amplitude determined from the data in Specific Aim 1. 3) Statistical models can detect reliably in near real- time (daily) significant alternations in the circadian physiology of individual subjects by analyzing the circadian and neurobehavioral data collected in Project 1. 4) Criteria can be developed using the Kronauer model and the recently developed Jewett model of cognitive -performance and subjective alertness to define altered circadian and neurobehavioral physiology and to set conditions for immediate administration of countermeasures.

Brown, Emery N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using NASA Techniques to Atmospherically Correct AWiFS Data for Carbon Sequestration Studies

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas emitted in a number of ways, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of forest to agriculture. Research has begun to quantify the ability of vegetative land cover and oceans to absorb and store carbon dioxide. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Forest Service is currently evaluating a DSS (decision support system) developed by researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center called CASA-CQUEST (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach-Carbon Query and Evaluation Support Tools). CASA-CQUEST is capable of estimating levels of carbon sequestration based on different land cover types and of predicting the effects of land use change on atmospheric carbon amounts to assist land use management decisions. The CASA-CQUEST DSS currently uses land cover data acquired from MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and the CASA-CQUEST project team is involved in several projects that use moderate-resolution land cover data derived from Landsat surface reflectance. Landsat offers higher spatial resolution than MODIS, allowing for increased ability to detect land use changes and forest disturbance. However, because of the rate at which changes occur and the fact that disturbances can be hidden by regrowth, updated land cover classifications may be required before the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and consistent classifications will be needed after that time. This candidate solution investigates the potential of using NASA atmospheric correction techniques to produce science-quality surface reflectance data from the Indian Remote Sensing Advanced Wide-Field Sensor on the RESOURCESAT-1 mission to produce land cover classification maps for the CASA-CQUEST DSS.

Holekamp, Kara L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

LOITA: Lunar Optical/Infrared Telescope Array

LOITA (Lunar Optical/Infrared Telescope Array) is a lunar-based interferometer composed of 18 alt-azimuth telescopes arranged in a circular geometry. This geometry results in excellent uv coverage and allows baselines up to 5 km long. The angular resolution will be 25 micro-arcsec at 500 nm and the main spectral range of the array will be 200 to 1100 nm. For infrared planet detection, the spectral range may be extended to nearly 10 mu m. The telescope mirrors have a Cassegrain configuration using a 1.75 m diameter primary mirror and a 0.24 m diameter secondary mirror. A three-stage (coarse, intermediate, and fine) optical delay system, controlled by laser metrology, is used to equalize path lengths from different telescopes to within a few wavelengths. All instruments and the fine delay system are located within the instrument room. Upon exiting the fine delay system, all beams enter the beam combiner and are then directed to the various scientific instruments and detectors. The array instrumentation will consist of CCD detectors optimized for both the visible and infrared as well as specially designed cameras and spectrographs. For direct planet detection, a beam combiner employing achromatic nulling interferometry will be used to reduce star light (by several orders of magnitude) while passing the planet light. A single telescope will be capable of autonomous operation. This telescope will be equipped with four instruments: wide field and planetary camera, faint object camera, high resolution spectrograph, and faint object spectrograph. These instruments will be housed beneath the telescope. The array pointing and control system is designed to meet the fine pointing requirement of one micro-arcsec stability and to allow precise tracking of celestial objects for up to 12 days. During the lunar night, the optics and the detectors will be passively cooled to 70-80 K temperature. To maintain a continuous communication with the earth a relay satellite placed at the L4 libration point will be used in conjunction with the Advanced Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (ATDRSS). Electrical power of about 10 kW will be supplied by a nuclear reactor based on the SP-100 technology. LOITA will be constructed in three phases of six telescopes each. The total mass of the first operational phase is estimated at 58,820 kg. The cost of the fully operational first phase of the observatory is estimated at $8.9 billion. LOITA's primary objectives will be to detect and characterize planets around nearby stars (up to ten parsec away), study physics of collapsed stellar objects, solar/stellar surface features and the processes in nuclear regions of galaxies and quasars. An interferometric array such as LOITA will be capable of achieving resolutions three orders of magnitude greater than Hubble's design goal. LOITA will also be able to maintain higher signal to noise ratios than are currently attainable due to long observation times available on the moon.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1996

Observations of 4U 1700-37 with BATSE

The eclipsing binary X-ray source 4U 1700-37 has been continually monitored by the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory since the spring of 1991. Using source measurements at times of Earth occultation, we observe an average (uneclipsed) flux of 0.23 crab in the 20-120 keV band. The flux is highly variable, with occasional flaring behavior on timescales from hundreds of seconds to several hours and intensities as bright as 1 crab. The uneclipsed spectrum is well represented by an optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung model with a temperature of 25 keV independent of source intensity or orbital phase. An upper limit of 4% on the pulse fraction has been obtained for pulse periods between 2 and 700 s. Average orbital light curves from almost 1000 days of occultation measurements have been constructed. These profiles are used to measure: (1) the eclipse semiangle, Theta(sub E) = 28.6 deg +/- 2.1 deg in the 20-120 keV band, and (2) the decrease in orbital period, P(dot)/P = -(3.3 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -7) 1/ yr. Estimates of system physical parameters are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations to propagate errors in measured and assumed parameters. For the X-ray source mass we find M(sub x) = 2.6(sub -1.4)(sup +2.3) solar mass, and for the mass and radius of the optical companion, M(sub 0) = 30(sub -7)(sup +11) solar mass and R(sub 0) = 18(sub -2)(sup +2) solar radius.

Rubin, B. C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Third generation earth radiation budget measurements; ERBE in the context of earlier systems

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) observations are just becoming available for scientific use. These represent the third generation of measurements with steadily improving accuracy and resolution. Beginning in the 1960's observations by spherical detectors established the mean albedo of the Earth near 30 percent in substantial variance from presatellite estimates. The Nimbus 6 and 7 wide field of view ERB measurements represent a long-term climatology of measurements at 1000 km resolution. The ERBE measurements introduce higher accuracy and higher space and time resolution result. Comparisons will be presented of several April ERB measurements to illustrate what this improvement in resolution and accuracy can yield. Simultaneous ERBE and Nimbus 7 measurements for April 1985 show nearly identical results on the large scale. Comparison of measurements of direct solar energy from ERBE, Solar Max Mission and Nimbus 7 suggest a 'solar constant' value of 1368 w/sq m for the 1979 to 1986 period. The long-term record of earth radiation budget (Aprils from 1976 to 1985) over large regions is shown to have interannual variation of plus or minus 20 to 30 w/sq. m. The new ERBE data will allow this climate record measurement to continue.

Vonderhaar, Thomas H.↗
NASA NTRS1970

HELIOS Third Joint Working Group Meeting

During the past six months since the Second Helios Joint Working Group Meeting held 27-30 April 1970 at Goddard Space Flight Center, the TDS Sub-Group supported the Helios Project Office and the other Sub-Groups in the timely disposition of action items and the dissemination of information pertinent to the development of interface documentation. Of particular importance during this time period was the Project's decision to incorporate a single-channel telemetry system design aboard the spacecraft. The TDS Sub-Group participated actively in the process that led to this decision. Still under active study with TDS participation is the pending Project Office decision regarding the incorporation of a ranging capability within the telecommunications design. The TDS Sub-Group assisted the Mission Analysis and Operations Sub-Group in establishment of a study effort concerning the Near-Earth Sequence of Events from launch to launch plus 8 hours. This study, which will provide valuable data for the spacecraft telecommunications design, will include participation by the Experiment, Launch Vehicle, Spacecraft, as well as the TDS and MA&O Sub-Groups. Also during the past 6-month period, the TDS, in conjunction with the Spacecraft Sub-Group, initiated activity to develop the Helios Spacecraft/TDS Compatibility Test Plans and Procedures. Activity concerning the foregoing interface discussions has been and will continue to be based upon the "TDS Estimated Capabilities Document for the Helios Missions" (613-1), and the "DSN/Flight Project Interface Design Handbook" (810-5). These will continue to be considered TDS controlling documents until specific Helios Project/TDS interface documentation is generated and signed off by the respective parties. In addition to the above, the DSN continued the Helios Trainee Program with seven GfW/DFVLR trainees in residence at JPL. Two trainees will complete their year's residency concurrent with the Third Helios Joint Working Group Meeting, while four new trainees are expected to arrive following the Third Helios Joint Working Group Meeting. These and other activities are reported in detail in the paragraphs that follow.

Ousley, Gilbert↗
NASA NTRS2010

Estimating the Reliability of a Soyuz Spacecraft Mission

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2010, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system? Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle? Is it safer to continue to fly the 30 year old Shuttle fleet for crew transportation and cargo resupply than the Soyuz? Should we extend the life of the Shuttle Program? How does the development of the Orion/Ares crew transportation system affect these decisions? The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system? Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher? Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success? NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project is currently underway. Though the projects ultimate goal is to return to the Moon and then to Mars, the launch vehicle and spacecraft s first mission will be for crew transportation to and from the ISS. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable? To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques

Lutomski, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Much Testing is Needed to Manage Supportability Risks for Beyond-LEO Missions?

Supportability will be a significantly greater driver of cost and risk for future deep-space crewed missions than it has been in the past. Spares requirements and maintenance risk mitigation in particular present an unprecedented challenge for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), since, for the first time in human spaceflight history, crews will be weeks or months away from resupply or a safe return to Earth in the event of an abort. Under these conditions, failure rates are a critical parameter that must be well-understood in order to manage logistics and risk effectively. However, failure rates cannot be measured directly, and can only be estimated based on past experience and test results. Previous research has shown that International Space Station (ISS) operational experience has provided significant benefits to future missions by reducing uncertainty and improving accuracy in failure rate estimates, resulting in significant reductions in mass and risk for beyond-LEO missions. This paper updates and expands on that research and quantifies the potential value of continued testing for future mission supportability. Frequentist and Bayesian models for evaluating, validating, and updating failure rate estimates are described, and are combined with supportability models to examine potential impacts of additional operating experience for future missions in terms of logistics mass reduction. The implications of these results for technology development, system design, and program planning are discussed along with lessons learned and recommendations for future system development. In the end, there is no simple answer to the question of how much testing is required, but the models described in this paper provide a way to evaluate the potential impacts of testing in order to inform test planning.

Andrew C Owens↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm-season net CO 2 uptake outweighs cold-season emissions over Alaskan North Slope tundra under current and RCP8.5 climate

Abstract Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO 2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO 2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO 2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO 2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO 2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO 2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO 2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m −2 yr −1 ) than that of cold-season CO 2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m −2 yr −1 ) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO 2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m −2 yr −1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m −2 yr −1 ), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO 2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-assimilated time-lapse visco-acoustic full-waveform inversion: Theory and application for injected CO 2 plume monitoring

Continuous seismic monitoring for quantifying CO 2 plume migration and detection of any potential leakages in the subsurface is essential for the security of long-term anthropogenic carbon dioxide geologic storage. Traditional time-lapse full-waveform inversion (TLFWI) methods aim to map the CO 2 distribution by estimating seismic velocity changes, but recent studies find that CO 2 -induced attenuation is an important complement to seismic velocity for tracking the CO 2 plumes and even quantifying the CO 2 saturation. We have developed a novel data-assimilated TLFWI method to construct high-resolution time-lapse velocity and attenuation changes from dense time-lapse monitoring data. This method consists of two theoretical developments: visco-acoustic full-waveform inversion (QFWI) and multiparameter hierarchical matrix-powered extended Kalman filter (mHiEKF). The method is capable of (1) posing temporal constraints to retrieve time-lapse information from dense monitoring data by using mHiEKF, (2) accurately recovering high-spatial-resolution velocity and attenuation perturbations using first-order equation system-based QFWI, and (3) providing the model uncertainty by estimating their model standard deviation. With numerical examples, we first find the effectiveness of the new QFWI on estimating accurate velocity and attenuation models simultaneously. Then, a CO 2 leakage case and a realistic Frio-II CO 2 monitoring case are presented to find the advantages and applicability of our data-assimilated QFWI method for estimating time-lapse changes using dense time-lapse monitoring surveys. Here, by assimilating time-lapse seismic monitoring data over time, our data-assimilated QFWI method can improve the resolution of velocity and attenuation changes and decrease their model uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Numerical analysis of experimental studies of methane hydrate formation in a sandy porous medium

Here we analyse numerically an earlier experimental study that involved the formation of methane hydrates by the excess water method in a small reactor filled with a sandy porous medium, and seek to address questions about the type of the hydration reaction and the phase heterogeneity in the resulting hydrate-bearing sand. Using a fine discretization describing the reactor assembly, the experimental process is faithfully replicated numerically. The multi-stage process of hydrate formation is subdivided in 7 steps. The experimental data from the continuously-monitored pressure and temperature during each step are used for comparison against the numerical predictions, the identification of the dominant processes and the determination of the associated parameters through a history-matching process that minimizes deviations between observations and simulation results. The results of this first-ever study on this subject demonstrate unequivocally that the hydration reaction is a kinetic (as opposed to an equilibrium) process, and that the spatial distributions of the various phases (aqueous, gas and hydrate) at the end of the formation process are strongly heterogeneous. This has serious implications in simulation studies of hydrate dissociation that assume uniform initial phase saturation distributions. Finally, the history-matching process indicates that (a) the system behaviour is sensitive to some flow parameters (porosity and irreducible water saturation) only during the first water injection, (b) it is insensitive to the sand intrinsic permeability during all steps of the study, and (c) thermal processes dominate after the first water injection, yielding estimates of the thermal properties of the sand and of time-variable key parameters of the kinetic reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Active–Source Seismic Tomography at the Brady Geothermal Field, Nevada, with Dense Nodal and Fiber–Optic Seismic Arrays

We deployed a dense seismic array to image the shallow structure in the injection area of the Brady Hot Springs geothermal power plant in western Nevada. The array was composed of 238 three-component, 5 Hz nodal instruments, 8700 m of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) fiber-optic cable (FOC) installed horizontally in surface trenches, and 400 m of FOC installed vertically in a borehole. The geophone array had about 60 m instrument spacing in the target zone, whereas DAS channel separations were about 1 m with an averaging (gauge) length of 10 m. The acquisition systems provided 15 days of continuous records, including active-source and ambient noise signals. A large vibroseis truck was operated at 196 locations, exciting a swept-frequency signal from 5 to 80 Hz over 20 s using three vibration modes (vertical, longitudinal, and transverse), with three sweeps per mode at each site. Sweeps were repeated up to four times at each site during four different stages of power plant operation: normal operation, shutdown, high and oscillatory injection and production, and normal operation. After removal of the sweep signal from the raw data, the first P-wave arrivals were automatically picked using a combination of methods. Here, the travel times were then used to invert for the 3D P-wave velocity structure. Models with 100 m horizontal and 20–50 m vertical node spacing were obtained, covering an area 2000 m by 1300 m, with acceptable resolution extending to about 250 m below surface. The travel-time data were fit to a root mean square (rms) misfit of 31 ms, close to our estimated picking uncertainty. Lateral boundaries between high and low velocity zones agree relatively well with the location of local faults from previous studies, and low near-surface velocities are associated with faults and fumarole locations. A sharp increase in velocity from < 1500 to > 2000 m/s at approximately 50 m below the ground surface in many parts of the study area may indicate a shallower water table than expected for the region.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗