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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning enables generation of molecules that advance the known Pareto front

Although generative models hold promise for discovering molecules with optimized desired properties, they often fail to suggest synthesizable molecules that improve upon the properties of the structures represented in the training distribution. We find that this limitation arises not only from the molecule generation process itself, but also from the poor generalization capabilities of molecular property predictors. We address this challenge by creating a closed-loop molecule generation pipeline with iterative retraining on new quantum chemical simulation data. Compared against static, single-pass generative modeling approaches, only our closed-loop iterative workflow generates molecules with properties extending beyond the training distribution (up to 0.44 standard deviations beyond the original range) and achieves a 79% improvement in out-of-distribution molecule classification accuracy. Furthermore, by conditioning molecular generation on thermodynamic stability data obtained during the iterative loop, the proportion of stable and hence potentially synthesizable molecules generated is 3.5x higher than the next-best model.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of short chains in liquid sulfur

High energy x-ray pair distribution function measurements show the average coordination number of the first shell in liquid sulfur is 1.86 ± 0.04 across the λ-transition, not precisely 2.0 as widely accepted. This indicates that upon melting, liquid sulfur does not comprise solely of S 8 rings but also possesses a significant number of short chains. Intensities of the pre-peak and first diffraction peak of the x-ray structure factor and third peak height of the pair distribution function all show deviations at the λ-transition temperature T λ , associated with the break-up of S 8 rings and the start of oligomer polymerization. A significant number of non-bonded or loosely bonded “interstitial atoms,” with an average coordination number of 0.20 ± 0.005, are also observed in the so-called “forbidden zone” between the first and second shells upon melting. The number of interstitial atoms is found to decrease to a minimum at the λ-transition, but the majority persist into the high temperature polymerized liquid. Furthermore, the existence of short chains and nearby interstitial atoms represent the two main factors required to initiate the S 8 -ring to chain transition, as proposed by recent molecular dynamics simulations.

Chemical bonding↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Segmentation method comparison for residual fiber length measurement across tiled microscopy images

Fiber length distribution (FLD), in part, governs mechanical properties in discontinuous fiber composites, yet manual measurement methods limit the high-throughput characterization needed for materials design optimization. This study compares deep learning segmentation approaches for automated FLD measurement in large-field microscopy, evaluating how method choice affects the microstructural descriptors used in structure-property-processing relationships. A critical challenge is that high-resolution microscopy images (10,000×10,000 pixels) must be tiled for deep learning analysis, fragmenting fibers at boundaries. We demonstrate that segmentation method proves crucial for measurement accuracy. For example, instance segmentation with Slicing Aided Hyper Inference (SAHI) preserves individual fiber integrity across tiles while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed. Comparing against manual measurement of extracted carbon fibers, YOLOv11-SAHI matched manual ground truth (238 μm weighted mean) with 40x speedup (4.5 vs 167 minutes per image). U-Net provides rapid quantification although it is at the cost of reduced accuracy due only reliably measuring stand-alone fibers. Our comparative analysis reveals that instance segmentation with SAHI better preserves length measurements while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed, providing empirical guidance for method selection. The characterization provides essential inputs for mechanical property prediction models and inverse design workflows, accelerating composite materials development cycles.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powered By ReEDS™ [Slides]

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's flagship Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric grid planning model is informing the answers to some of the biggest questions surrounding electricity sector research. Powered By ReEDS is the third webinar in the Powered By series. Each webinar highlights an innovative NREL grid planning and analysis tool and its real-world applications. The series is an exciting opportunity to learn directly from NREL's grid experts, so make sure to bring your questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Detecting and Characterizing Fracture Zones Using a Convolutional Neural Network

This project directly supports the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) objectives outlined in the Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) by advancing two key research areas: “Exploration and Characterization” and “Data, Modeling, and Analysis.” This project has successfully demonstrated a pre-drilling ability to image and characterize the distribution and connectivity of subsurface faults and fractures, key parameters for identifying permeable pathways that enable geothermal fluids to circulate and produce energy. Specifically, we developed and implemented innovative machine learning methodologies to enhance geothermal exploration. Large-scale faults were detected using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), while small-scale fractures were characterized using a novel Double-Beam Neural Network (DBNN). These tools have proven both technically effective and cost-efficient by reducing reliance on expensive exploratory drilling. Through collaboration with our geothermal industry partner, this research has significantly advanced techniques for identifying hidden geothermal systems and extending the productive lifespan of existing geothermal fields. We applied our methods to two geothermal fields—Soda Lake (Nevada) and Lightning Dock (New Mexico)—to identify shallow steam-charged fracture zones and characterize deep faults at depths of 1.5-2 km. The steam zone identified at the Soda Lake geothermal field showed excellent agreement with prior drilling data, validating the effectiveness of our approaches. In addition, the analysis revealed three new prospective drilling targets for further development and verification. The outcomes of this project improve our scientific understanding of geothermal reservoir behavior, enhance exploration efficiency, extend the economic life of existing geothermal plants. Ultimately, these advancements contribute to GTO’s goal of achieving more sustainable, affordable, and data-driven geothermal energy development across the United States.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven Community-centered Resilient Assessment and Planning Toolkit for Nexus of Energy and Water (DCRAPT-NEW)

Urban areas, including Detroit and Pittsburgh, have suffered significant dual outages of the electrical and water infrastructure in the past decade due, in part, to the increasing number of extreme weather events. With increasing temperatures and rainfall intensity, these regions need to prepare for increasing extreme events through community-based energy and water resilience analysis, planning, and enhancement. This project developed a suite of open-source, open-access, community-centered, data-driven assessment and distributed energy resource (DER) and planning tools for energy and water resilience enhancement in urban areas. Through establishing a multi-level community awareness and engagement mechanism and a comprehensive collection of power outage and flooding data, an innovative group of community energy and water resilience assessment and planning tools have been developed for a wide range of users with differing and variable sets of data available to them. The developed tools include (1) DOE EAGLE-I data-driven, deep-learning assisted resilience assessment and DER planning tools at the county level with socioeconomic factors incorporated; (2) Utility annual power outage data-driven tools for long term resilience assessment and DER planning and 15-min power outage data-driven tools for short term resilience assessment and planning; (3) Detailed engineering tools for energy and water systems resilience assessment and planning when the system topology and component fragility curves are available; (4) Alternative Resiliency Metric Calculation that extracts and separates outage and restoration processes; and (5) Co-optimization tools that evaluate the resilience of the power and sewage system and allow users to conduct joint planning with energy and wastewater systems. The developed tools provide planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders with powerful capabilities to systematically evaluate system/community resilience and optimal and actionable guidance for enhancing resilience while prioritizing DER investments. The tools have been used and validated in Detroit and Pittsburgh and can be used in other areas of the nation. In addition, this project will (1) advance the knowledge and applications of machine-learning methods in analyzing and fusing different layers of information and generating meaningful data points such as generating rare weather events; (2) significantly improve the energy and water resilience of the identified communities in Detroit and Pittsburgh and prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions; (3) help communities assess extreme weather event impacts and address short-term and long-term resilience-related issues The developed tools have been made public via GitHub and demonstrated to community stakeholders and utility companies via the two annual workshops and numerous community engagement meetings. The project outcomes are also disseminated through publications in various journals and conference proceedings, and presentations at top conferences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

FracML: A Machine Learning Based Tool to Quantify Reservoir Scale Fracture Network for CO2 Storage

Poster on “FRACML: A Machine Learning Based Tool to Quantify Reservoir Scale Fracture Network for CO2 Storage” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. The accurate characterization of subsurface fracture networks is essential for the secure operation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. A thorough understanding of the spatial distribution of subsurface faults and fractures is crucial for predicting CO2 plume evolution and minimizing risks such as potential leakage into overlying formations or induced seismicity. In this context, robust fracture network quantification plays a pivotal role in reservoir management, providing the data necessary to fine-tune operational parameters, and ensure the environmental and economic viability of CCUS projects. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s SMART (Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-time Decisions in Subsurface Applications) initiative, we focused on the development and application of a machine learning-based tool (FRACML) designed to quantify and map fracture networks using real-world (non-synthetic) data from an active CO2 injection site. Our objective is to demonstrate the utility of this tool in improving operational efficiency and safety across CCUS sites.

artifical intelligence / machine learning (AI/ML)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bifunctional Electrocatalysts with High-Entropy Alloys: Bridging Hydrogen Evolution and Oxygen Reduction

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) have emerged as a promising class of bifunctional electrocatalysts capable of simultaneously driving the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) and the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) with high activity and durability. Their near-equiatomic multicomponent compositions give rise to unique physicochemical characteristics, including lattice distortion, sluggish diffusion, high-entropy stabilization, and pronounced electronic heterogeneity, that collectively generate diverse and synergistic active sites inaccessible in conventional alloys. This review summarizes recent progress in HEA-based bifunctional electrocatalysis, with a focus on the fundamental mechanisms governing HER and ORR activity, stability, and selectivity. We discuss advances in synthesis strategies, ranging from confined growth and step-alloying to scalable continuous-flow methods, that enable precise control over composition, size, and surface structure. Complementary computational and data-driven approaches, including density functional theory, machine-learning-assisted screening, and descriptor development, are highlighted as essential tools for navigating the vast HEA design space and establishing structure−property relationships. Particular attention is paid to adsorption-energy distributions, multisite cooperativity, and environmental effects under realistic electrochemical conditions. Finally, we outline current challenges and future opportunities for integrating mechanistic understanding with AI-guided, closed-loop design frameworks to accelerate the discovery of next-generation HEA bifunctional electrocatalysts for sustainable energy conversion.

Alloys↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficiently predicting pressure-composition-temperature diagrams to discover low-stability metal hydrides

Quantitatively accurate computational predictions of metal hydride thermodynamics are challenging but critical for alloy performance optimization across a multitude of technological domains, including hydrogen storage, compression, purification, and getters. Recent machine learning approaches have demonstrated great success in this area, but can potentially suffer from several shortcomings since they rely on imbalanced experimental training data and can have poor out-of-distribution (ood) test performance. Here, in this study, we circumvent such pitfalls by developing a computationally efficient, first principles-based workflow for direct prediction of metal hydride phase equilibrium, i.e., the pressure-composition-temperature (PCT) diagram. We then demonstrate its utility on predicting low stability hydrides derived from compositionally complex C14 Laves phase AB2 alloys. Specifically, we computationally predict and then experimentally validate an AB 2 alloy series (z < 0.6 for Ti 2−z Zr z CrMnFeNi) with ideal hydriding thermodynamics for a two-stage metal hydride-based compressor for pressurizing boil off from liquefied hydrogen. Importantly, this study lays the groundwork for accurate and efficient discovery/optimization of ood, low-stability hydrides for which purely data-driven approaches lack sufficient accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient and generalizable nested Fourier-DeepONet for three-dimensional geological carbon sequestration

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) involves injecting CO2 into subsurface geological formationsfor permanent storage. Numerical simulations could guide decisions in GCS projects by predictingCO 2 migration pathways and the pressure distribution in storage formation. However, these simula-tions are often computationally expensive due to highly coupled physics and large spatial-temporalsimulation domains. Surrogate modelling with data-driven machine learning has become a promis-ing alternative to accelerate physics-based simulations. Among these, the Fourier neural operator(FNO) has been applied to three-dimensional synthetic subsurface models. Despite its good accuracyin simulating CO 2 plume migration, it requires large computational resources in training and alsolacks generalizability. Here, to further improve performance, we have developed a nested Fourier-DeepONet by combining the expressiveness of the FNO with the modularity of a deep operatornetwork (DeepONet). This new framework is twice as efficient as a nested FNO for training and has atleast 80% lower GPU memory requirement due to its flexibility to treat temporal coordinates sepa-rately. These performance improvements are achieved without compromising prediction accuracy.In addition, the generalization and extrapolation ability of nested Fourier-DeepONet beyond thetraining range has been thoroughly evaluated. Nested Fourier-DeepONet outperformed the nestedFNO for extrapolation in time with more than 50% reduced error. It also exhibited good extrapolationaccuracy beyond the training range in terms of reservoir properties, number of wells, and injectionrate.

Lee, Jonathan E. [Department of Chemical and Envir↗
DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Navigating Options for Transportation Electrification and Solar Charging: Steps and Lessons Learned in Montana Communities

This document is intended to assist communities who are considering investing in electric transportation. It can assist communities engage stakeholders, prioritize community goals, assess electric transportation options, and navigate complex decisions about deploying zero emission electric transportation in their community. It covers technological, economic and environmental aspects of the transition to electric vehicles (EV), and highlights the specific considerations related to the deployment of renewable energy technologies (e.g., distributed solar) in combination with EV supply equipment (EVSE, e.g., charging stations). There are many important decisions to make and questions for communities to ask themselves as they consider electric vehicle types, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation options. This guide will help communities assess: (1) Which stage in the decision-making process they are in with respect to EV deployment; (2) Questions they can explore to guide their decisions about EV deployment; (3) How to engage key stakeholders on EV deployment options; (4) Tradeoffs and benefits of various electric transportation options and; (5) Synergies of pairing electric vehicle charging and renewable energy generation technologies. The analysis and lessons learned presented in this roadmap are intended to serve as a template and guide for similarly situated communities across the country who want to prepare for and play a role in the electrified transportation future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling whole-chip QAOA for higher-order ising spin glass models on heavy-hex graphs

Abstract We show that the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) for higher-order, random coefficient, heavy-hex compatible spin glass Ising models has strong parameter concentration across problem sizes from 16 up to 127 qubits for p = 1 up to p = 5, which allows for computationally efficient parameter transfer of QAOA angles. Matrix product state (MPS) simulation is used to compute noise-free QAOA performance. Hardware-compatible short-depth QAOA circuits are executed on ensembles of 100 higher-order Ising models on noisy IBM quantum superconducting processors with 16, 27, and 127 qubits using QAOA angles learned from a single 16-qubit instance using the JuliQAOA tool. We show that the best quantum processors find lower energy solutions up to p = 2 or p = 3, and find mean energies that are about a factor of two off from the noise-free distribution. We show that p = 1 QAOA energy landscapes remain very similar as the problem size increases using NISQ hardware gridsearches with up to a 414 qubit processor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗