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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact analysis of DERs on bulk power system stability through the parameterization of aggregated DER_a model for real feeders

With an ever increasing percentage of distributed energy resources (DERs) connected behind the meter in the distribution system, it is becoming increasingly important to equip transmission planners with the visibility of DER dynamic performance in distribution system. Not having visibility of the disconnection of DERs with the occurrence of transmission events, could result in an erroneous view of the stability of bulk power system. Here, in this paper, a parameterized aggregated model (DER_a) serves as a representation of the distribution-level dynamics of real residential feeders, which is used for analysis of bulk power system stability. The parameters are obtained by executing dynamic Monte Carlo simulations. Faults are then induced at the substation level causing the DERs to trip which subsequently enables the parameterization of the low and high voltage breakpoints (v l0 , v l1 , v h0 , and v h1 ) of the DER_a model’s partial voltage trip block. These parameters are then utilized to study the effectiveness of the DER_a model to represent the behavior of the aggregated DERs’ response and their impact on the bulk power system. The case study shows the ability of the positive-sequence DER_a model to provide an accurate estimation of DERs that are susceptible to trip due to 3-$\phi$ and 1-$\phi$ faults of transmission.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Methods for Measuring Grid Frequency in Low-Inertia Power Systems: Preprint

Accurate measurement of grid frequency is a critical component of reliable grid control. Traditionally, methods such as phase locked loops (PLLs) and discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs) have been used in inverters and phasor measurement units (PMUs) to measure frequency. However, as the percentage of inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar and wind has increased, these conventional frequency measurement methods are proving unable to guarantee reliable control in some cases. One challenge is measuring frequency during transient events, where there is a disruption in the steady state sinusoidal voltage. During these events, the underlying frequency of the grid may barely change, but measurement methods report a large spike in frequency due to the disrupted waveform. New methods must balance between suppressing spikes in frequency during faults, and providing fast, accurate, measurements in all other grid operation conditions, especially during events with high rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF), which are more prevalent in high-IBR power systems. This paper first surveys frequency measurement methods that have been proposed to reduce measurement errors during transient events. Then, both conventional and more novel frequency measurement methods are tested against an IEEE standard and industry recommendations, and their performance is evaluated for events simulated in PSCAD. Results quantify the trade-offs in performance during different grid conditions and lead to suggestions for the most appropriate frequency and ROCOF measurement methods for low inertia grids.

frequency↗
DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest

Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jet Drift in Heavy-Ion Collision: Acoplanarity and v 2

We introduce a sub-eikonal anisotropic contribution to jet-broadening, “jet drift,” that couples to the flow of the nuclear medium, showing that this effect results in a deflection of hard partons, and thus jets, in the direction of the medium flow. We study two-jet observables, i.e. v 2 and acoplanarity for √s = 5.02 TeV PbPb collisions at the LHC. We show that jet drift leads to an enhancement of the elliptic flow (v 2 ) of charged hadrons and modification of the acoplanarity of dihadrons and discuss the implications for jet substructure and medium response effects. We also demonstrate that we can obtain independent information about the event geometry encoded in the drift modification to acoplanarity vs v 2 enhancement, whereas the temperature dependence of these observables is qualitatively different. By disentangling this temperature vs geometry dependence of these observables, we can add discriminatory power to our analysis. Next, we study acoplanarity and v 2 across different system sizes and collisional energies i.e. 200 GeV AuAu collision at RHIC using our in-house simulation package (APE). Our analysis will be critical for understanding and generalizing dynamical jet-QGP interactions for different collisional systems and energies which will aid event engineering applications in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

New insights into the mechanism of ultrasonic atomization for the production of metal powders in additive manufacturing

Ultrasonic atomization is one of the promising technologies for producing metal powders for additive manufacturing, where precise control of particle size and morphology is essential. In this study, we coupled an ultrasonic transducer with a carbon fiber plate and atomized liquid droplets and films under different vibration amplitudes. Water, glycerol, and pure aluminum melt were used to study the atomization mechanism and the resulting droplet/powder characteristics, respectively. High-speed optical and ultrafast synchrotron X-ray imaging were used to study in situ the ultrasonic atomization dynamics, including pulsation and clustering of cavities inside the liquid layer/films, development of capillary waves, and formation of liquid droplets. For the first time, we observed and captured the occurrence of cavitation during the atomization of resting drops, films and impact droplets. The inertial cavitation events interfered with the capillary waves across the interphase boundary, puncturing and breaking the boundary to produce atomized mist. The in situ observation revealed the intricate dynamics of ultrasonic atomization and underscored the pivotal role of cavitation events throughout the entire atomization process. We also conducted experiments on ultrasonic atomization of liquid aluminum, producing particles of perfectly spherical shape. The particle size tended to decrease with reduced vibration amplitude Our work has demonstrated the important processing strategies on how to tailor the particle size while ensuring consistent particle shape and morphology, which is the key processing capability for producing high quality powders for additive manufacturing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic flow and flow fluctuations of identified hadrons in Pb–Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The first measurements of elliptic flow of π ± , K ± , p+$\bar{p}$, K$_{S}^{0}$, Λ+$\bar{Λ}$, $\phi$, Ξ – +$\barΞ$ + , and Ω – +$\barΩ$ + using multiparticle cumulants in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 5.02 TeV are resented. Results obtained with two- (v 2 {2}) and four-particle cumulants (v 2 {4}) are shown as a function of transverse momentum, p T , for various collision centrality intervals. Combining the data for both v 2 {2} and v 2 {4} also allows us to report the first measurements of the mean elliptic flow, elliptic flow fluctuations, and relative elliptic flow fluctuations for various hadron species. These observables probe the event-by-event eccentricity fluctuations in the initial state and the contributions from the dynamic evolution of the expanding quark–gluon plasma. The characteristic features observed in previous p T -differential anisotropic flow measurements for identified hadrons with two-particle correlations, namely the mass ordering at low p T and the approximate scaling with the number of constituent quarks at intermediate p T , are similarly present in the four-particle correlations and the combinations of v 2 {2} and v 2 {4}. In addition, a particle species dependence of flow fluctuations is observed that could indicate a significant contribution from final state hadronic interactions. The comparison between experimental measurements and CoLBT model calculations, which combine the various physics processes of hydrodynamics, quark coalescence, and jet fragmentation, illustrates their importance over a wide p T range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Controls on the Delivery of Dissolved Organic Matter to Streams Following a Wildfire

Warmer and drier climate has contributed to increased occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, drawing concerns for water quality and ecosystem recovery. While nutrient fluxes generally increase post-fire, the composition of organic matter (OM) transported to streams immediately following a fire is poorly constrained, yet can play an integral role in downstream water quality and biogeochemistry. Here, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved OM (DOM) chemistry for five streams burned by wildfires in Oregon, USA in 2020. We sampled over a 24-hour storm event one month after the fire, revealing variable temporal behavior in DOM dynamics. DOM chemistry was directly related with burn severity spatially. Specifically, nitrogen and aromatic character of DOM increased in streams burned at greater severity. Our results suggest a spatial overprinting of DOM dynamics immediately following fire activity and highlight a key gap in our knowledge of post-fire DOM transport to streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collimator challenges at SuperKEKB and their countermeasures using nonlinear collimator

In SuperKEKB, movable collimators reduce the beam background noise in the Belle II particle detector and protect crucial machine components, such as final focusing superconducting quadrupole magnets (QCS), from abnormal beam losses. The challenges related to the collimator, which were not properly considered at the time of SuperKEKB design, have surfaced through experience with its operation. In this paper, we report the collimator operation strategy in SuperKEKB. In addition, a significant challenge of beam collimation due to the future increase in the beam background is highlighted. We also discuss another issue caused by unexpected and sudden beam losses in the machine that damage collimators, leading to weaker beam collimation performance and an increase in transverse impedance. Furthermore, we introduce a novel collimation approach called the nonlinear collimator (NLC) to address these challenges. We detail the concept of NLC and evaluate their effectiveness by assessing the collimator impedance, beam background reduction, and impact on the dynamic aperture. The possibility of using NLCs as absorber collimators to counteract events that damage the collimator is also shown to be helpful.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamical Large Deviations of Two-Dimensional Kinetically Constrained Models Using a Neural-Network State Ansatz

We use a neural-network ansatz originally designed for the variational optimization of quantum systems to study dynamical large deviations in classical ones. We use recurrent neural networks to describe the large deviations of the dynamical activity of model glasses, kinetically constrained models in two dimensions. We present the first finite size-scaling analysis of the large-deviation functions of the two-dimensional Fredrickson-Andersen model, and explore the spatial structure of the high-activity sector of the South-or-East model. These results provide a new route to the study of dynamical large-deviation functions, and highlight the broad applicability of the neural-network state ansatz across domains in physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Denial of Service Attack Detection via Differential Analysis of Generalized Entropy Progressions

Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks are one the most common and consequential cyber attacks in computer networks. While existing research offers a plethora of detection methods, the issue of achieving scalability, a low false positive rate, and high detection accuracy remains open. In this work, we address this problem by developing a differential method based on generalized entropy progression. In this method, named as DoDGE, we continuously fit the line of best fit to the entropy progression of destination addresses and check if the derivative, that is, the slope of this line is less than the negative of the dynamically computed standard deviation of the derivatives. Furthermore, to distinguish from flash events, we leverage the symmetry that when a flash event occurs, the derivative of the entropy progression of source addresses is positive. With this design, we omit the usage of the thresholds and the results with five real-world network traffic datasets confirm that DoDGE outperforms threshold-based DoS attack detection by two orders of magnitude in terms of false positives on average. When compared to ten machine learning (ML) models, DoDGE achieves a balanced accuracy of 99%, while the average balanced accuracy for the ML models is 52%. Moreover, the results show that DoDGE successfully differentiates between a flash event and a DoS attack. Furthermore, since the main computation cost of DoDGE is the entropy computation, which is linear in the volume of the unit-time network flow, uses integer only operations, and works on a small fraction of the total flow, it is lightweight and scalable.

Cybersecurity, wireless communication↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alternating salt and freshwater floods of coastal soils impact soil structure, hydraulic properties, and oxygen dynamics

Coastal soils are increasingly impacted by hydrologic intensification in the form of rising sea level and flooding from storm surges and precipitation. Alternating saltwater (SW) and freshwater (FW) exposure has the potential to disperse colloids, which can lead to disintegration of soil structure, clogging of pore spaces, and reduction in ecologically and biogeochemically important functions like infiltration or gas exchange. To investigate how hydrologic intensification affects soil structure and oxygen dynamics, we conducted a series of laboratory-based flood simulations. Intact soil cores of the A and B horizons (22 total) from the toe slope of an upland coastal forest along the western shore of Chesapeake Bay. We subjected the cores to 24 h of saturation with either FW or alternating brackish SW and FW, with a 24-h draining event in between flood events. Oxygen diffusion into soil during draining was reduced by up to 30% for soils flooded alternating SW-FW compared to soils flooded only with FW. We attributed the reduced oxygen diffusion to clogging of smaller pores by colloids, with colloid redistribution observed as an increase in specific surface area down the core profile of up to 59%. After three SW-FW floods (six floods total), there were significant changes in pore size distribution, significant redistribution of colloids, and the A horizon became sodic. We concluded that a small number of SW flooding events can induce a measurable change in soil physical properties that directly impacts the biogeochemical dynamics.

Rod, Kenton A. [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid changes in coastal ocean microbiomes uncoupled with shifts in environmental variables

Disturbances, here defined as events that directly alter microbial community composition, are commonly studied in host–associated and engineered systems. Notably, in spite of global change both altering environmental averages and increasing extreme events, there has been relatively little research into the causes, persistence and population–level impacts of disturbance in the dynamic coastal ocean. Here, we utilize 3 years of observations from a coastal time series to identify disturbances based on the largest week–over–week changes in the microbiome (i.e. identifying disturbance as events that alter the community composition). In general, these microbiome disturbances were not clearly linked to specific environmental factors and responsive taxa largely differed, aside from SAR11, which generally declined. However, several disturbance metagenomes identified increased phage–associated genes, suggesting that unexplained community shifts might be caused by increased mortality. Furthermore, a category 1 hurricane, the only event that would likely be classified a priori as an environmental disturbance, was not an outlier in microbiome composition, but did enhance a bloom in seasonally abundant phytoplankton. Thus, as extreme environmental changes intensify, assumptions of what constitutes a disturbance should be re–examined in the context of ecological history and microbiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic behavior of chemically tunable mechano-responsive hydrogels

Here, using theory and simulation, we model the mechanical behavior of gels that encompass loops and dangling chain ends. If the loops remain folded and dangling ends are chemically inert, then these topological features just serve as defects. If, however, the loops unfold to expose the hidden (“cryptic”) binding sites and the ends of the dangling chains are reactive, these moieties can form bonds that improve the gel's mechanical properties. For gels with a lower critical solubility temperature (LCST), we systematically switch on the possible unfolding and binding events. To quantify the resulting effects, we derive equations for the gel's equilibrium and dynamic elastic moduli. We also use a finite element approach to simulate the gel's response to deformation and validate the analytic calculations. Herein, we show that the equilibrium moduli are highly sensitive to the presence of unfolding and binding transitions. The dynamical moduli are sensitive not only to these structural changes, but also to the frequency of deformation. For example, when reactive ends bind to exposed cryptic sites at T = 29 °C and relatively high frequency, the storage shear modulus is 119% greater than the corresponding equilibrium value, while the storage Young's modulus is 109% greater than at equilibrium. These findings provide guidelines for tuning the chemical reactivity of loops and dangling ends and the frequency of deformation to tailor the mechano-responsive behavior of polymer networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗